Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina.

The transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which incorporates hydroclimatic variables for the three most populated cities in the area (Santa Fe, Paraná and Rosario), during the 2009-2018 period. Results obtained by solving the proposed SIR model for the 2010 outbreak are in good agreement with the actual data, capturing the dynamics of the leptospirosis outbreak wave. However, the model does not perform very well in the last months of the year when isolated cases appear outside the outbreak periods, probably due to non- climatic factors not explicitly considered in the present version of the model. Nevertheless, the dynamic modeling of infectious diseases considering hydroclimatic variables constitutes a climatic service for the public health system, not yet available in Argentina.

Spatio-temporal analysis of leptospirosis incidence and its relationship with hydroclimatic indicators in northeastern Argentina.

Leptospirosis is considered the most globally widespread zoonotic illness; it has been classified as an emerging or reemerging infectious disease by the World Health Organization. Leptospirosis is a disease caused by a pathogenic spirochete of the genus Leptospira. The infection occurs by contacting with the urine of animal reservoirs or contaminated environments. Leptospirosis can be controlled by vaccines used mainly in animals, antibiotics given to exposed humans, and flood-affected people moved to a safe place. Northeastern Argentina accounts for the highest annual number of cases and deaths due to leptospirosis of the country. This interdisciplinary study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of leptospirosis, and assesses the hydroclimatic factors that give rise to the outbreaks in northeastern Argentina. The main goal is to detect the hydroclimatic indicators that can influence leptospirosis outbreaks occurrence in the northeastern Argentina. We perform a spatio-temporal analysis of the leptospirosis in the provinces of Santa Fe and Entre Ríos to distinguish the regions, years and seasons with the highest incidence of this disease. This study analyzes confirmed cases of leptospirosis between 2009 and 2018 years. Hydroclimatic indicators (monthly total precipitation, monthly river hydrometric level and Oceanic Niño Index) associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis vary in different spatial scales (provincial, departmental and cities). In the last outbreak of leptospirosis in 2015-2016 the number of cases was lower than expected. This could have been a consequence of increased prophylaxis in that flood event. Therefore, this is a variable that should be incorporated in future studies.

Analysis of the spatial distribution of scientific publications regarding vector-borne diseases related to climate variability in South America.

Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other climate variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. Likewise, climate can be determinant in outbreaks incidence. A growing number of studies have provided evidence indicating the effects of climate variability on vector-borne diseases. However, oftentimes, the different diseases and regions are not uniformly represented, scarcity or lack of publications in some countries is common. The objectives of this work were to analyze the distribution and abundance of publications on vector-borne diseases associated with climate variability in South America, identify those works that conducted a geographic analysis and detect the countries where outbreaks occurred and the climate variables with which they were associated. A systematic review of the literature published on vector-borne diseases linked to climate variability in South America was conducted, identifying, evaluating and summarizing scientific papers. The distribution of the study areas and disease type in the publications were represented on maps. Dengue and leishmaniasis were the most studied and widely represented diseases in South America. The country with the largest number of published papers and presence of all disease types was Brazil. Outbreaks of disease were related to different climate variables. Most diseases from the publications under study occurred in equatorial and tropical climates. The disease represented by the largest number of different types of climates was dengue. The technique used in this work allowed us to determine the status of knowledge of the main diseases associated with climate variability in South America. This methodology could be improved in the future by incorporating other bibliographic sources as well as other diseases related to climate variability.

How far from water? terrestrial dispersal and nesting sites of the freshwater turtle Phrynops hilarii in the floodplain of the Paraná River (Argentina).

Terrestrial environments surrounding aquatic resources are important and intensively used by semi-aquatic species. In the present work, terrestrial dispersal and nesting sites of the freshwater turtle Phrynops hilarii were analyzed in the floodplain of the Paraná River, using field data and variables obtained from remote sensing. A total of 112 turtles and 44 nests were recorded during road sampling for one year (covered a total of 786 km in 30 surveys). Individuals were at a mean distance of 171.45 m from water, with a negative correlation between number of turtles and distance from water bodies. No significant differences in distance of turtles from water were observed among seasons. Phrynops hilarii nested at a mean distance of 136.51 m from water, showing a negative correlation between number of nests and distance from water bodies. Mean elevation of nests relative to maximum level of water body nearest each record was 1.13 m. The correlation between number of nests and elevation of the nearest water body was positive and significant. The landscape surrounding wetlands is important for P. hilarii to complete the life cycle, as nesting is done in this environment. Our results show that the habitat selected for nesting and terrestrial dispersal was proportionally different from that available in the entire study area, with a higher proportion of wetlands, grasslands and forests.

Global burned-land estimation in Latin America using MODIS composite data.

This paper presents results of the AQL2004 project, which has been develope within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLatif). The project intended to obtain monthly burned-land maps of the entire region, from Mexico to Patagonia, using MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) reflectance data. The project has been organized in three different phases: acquisition and preprocessing of satellite data; discrimination of burned pixels; and validation of results. In the first phase, input data consisting of 32-day composites of MODIS 500-m reflectance data generated by the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) of the University of Maryland (College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.) were collected and processed. The discrimination of burned areas was addressed in two steps: searching for "burned core" pixels using postfire spectral indices and multitemporal change detection and mapping of burned scars using contextual techniques. The validation phase was based on visual analysis of Landsat and CBERS (China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite) images. Validation of the burned-land category showed an agreement ranging from 30% to 60%, depending on the ecosystem and vegetation species present. The total burned area for the entire year was estimated to be 153 215 km2. The most affected countries in relation to their territory were Cuba, Colombia, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Burned areas were found in most land covers; herbaceous vegetation (savannas and grasslands) presented the highest proportions of burned area, while perennial forest had the lowest proportions. The importance of croplands in the total burned area should be taken with reserve, since this cover presented the highest commission errors. The importance of generating systematic products of burned land areas for different ecological processes is emphasized.