Global malaria predictors at a localized scale.

Malaria is a life-threatening disease caused by Plasmodium parasites transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes. In 2021, more than 247 million cases of malaria were reported worldwide, with an estimated 619,000 deaths. While malaria incidence has decreased globally in recent decades, some public health gains have plateaued, and many endemic hotspots still face high transmission rates. Understanding local drivers of malaria transmission is crucial but challenging due to the complex interactions between climate, entomological and human variables, and land use. This study focuses on highly climatically suitable and endemic areas in Côte d'Ivoire to assess the explanatory power of coarse climatic predictors of malaria transmission at a fine scale. Using data from 40 villages participating in a randomized controlled trial of a household malaria intervention, the study examines the effects of climate variation over time on malaria transmission. Through panel regressions and statistical modeling, the study investigates which variable (temperature, precipitation, or entomological inoculation rate) and its form (linear or unimodal) best explains seasonal malaria transmission and the factors predicting spatial variation in transmission. The results highlight the importance of temperature and rainfall, with quadratic temperature and all precipitation models performing well, but the causal influence of each driver remains unclear due to their strong correlation. Further, an independent, mechanistic temperature-dependent R 0 model based on laboratory data aligns well with observed malaria incidence rates, emphasizing the significance and predictability of temperature suitability across scales. By contrast, entomological variables, such as entomological inoculation rate, were not strong predictors of human incidence in this context. Finally, the study explores the predictors of spatial variation in malaria, considering land use, intervention, and entomological variables. The findings contribute to a better understanding of malaria transmission dynamics at local scales, aiding in the development of effective control strategies in endemic regions.

Human footprint is associated with shifts in the assemblages of major vector-borne diseases.

Predicting how increasing intensity of human-environment interactions affects pathogen transmission is essential to anticipate changing disease risks and identify appropriate mitigation strategies. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are highly responsive to environmental changes, but such responses are notoriously difficult to isolate because pathogen transmission depends on a suite of ecological and social responses in vectors and hosts that may differ across species. Here we use the emerging tools of cumulative pressure mapping and machine learning to better understand how the occurrence of six medically important VBDs, differing in ecology from sylvatic to urban, respond to multidimensional effects of human pressure. We find that not only is human footprint-an index of human pressure, incorporating built environments, energy and transportation infrastructure, agricultural lands and human population density-an important predictor of VBD occurrence, but there are clear thresholds governing the occurrence of different VBDs. Across a spectrum of human pressure, diseases associated with lower human pressure, including malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis and visceral leishmaniasis, give way to diseases associated with high human pressure, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. These heterogeneous responses of VBDs to human pressure highlight thresholds of land-use transitions that may lead to abrupt shifts in infectious disease burdens and public health needs.

Detection of Leishmania (Mundinia) macropodum (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) and heterologous Leishmania species antibodies among blood donors in a region of Australia with marsupial Leishmania endemicity.

OBJECTIVES: The Australian Leishmania (Mundinia) macropodum parasite causes cutaneous leishmaniasis among marsupial species. Although cutaneous leishmaniasis is a major public health burden worldwide, it is not clear if humans are naturally exposed to the unique L. macropodum. To assess whether humans have an immunoglobulin (Ig) G response to L. macropodum, we examined anti-Leishmania antibodies among humans residing in a region of marsupial Leishmania endemicity in Australia. METHODS: Using a serological enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we characterized Leishmania-specific IgG and IgG subclass responses to soluble Leishmania antigen from L. macropodum, and other Leishmania species (L. donovani, L. major, and L. mexicana) in 282 blood donor samples. RESULTS: We found that 20.57% of individuals demonstrated a positive total IgG response to L. macropodum. For individuals with antibodies to soluble Leishmania antigen from one Leishmania species, there was no increased likelihood of recognition to other Leishmania species. For samples with detectable L. macropodum IgG, IgG1 and IgG2 were the prevalent subclasses detected. CONCLUSION: It is not yet clear whether the IgG antibody detection in this study reflects exposure to Leishmania parasites or a cross-reactive immune response that was induced against an unrelated immunogen. Future studies should investigate whether L. macropodum can result in a viable infection in humans.

Not all mosquitoes are created equal: A synthesis of vector competence experiments reinforces virus associations of Australian mosquitoes.

The globalization of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases has placed more than half of the human population at risk. Understanding arbovirus ecology, including the role individual mosquito species play in virus transmission cycles, is critical for limiting disease. Canonical virus-vector groupings, such as Aedes- or Culex-associated flaviviruses, have historically been defined using virus detection in field-collected mosquitoes, mosquito feeding patterns, and vector competence, which quantifies the intrinsic ability of a mosquito to become infected with and transmit a virus during a subsequent blood feed. Herein, we quantitatively synthesize data from 68 laboratory-based vector competence studies of 111 mosquito-virus pairings of Australian mosquito species and viruses of public health concern to further substantiate existing canonical vector-virus groupings and quantify variation within these groupings. Our synthesis reinforces current canonical vector-virus groupings but reveals substantial variation within them. While Aedes species were generally the most competent vectors of canonical "Aedes-associated flaviviruses" (such as dengue, Zika, and yellow fever viruses), there are some notable exceptions; for example, Aedes notoscriptus is an incompetent vector of dengue viruses. Culex spp. were the most competent vectors of many traditionally Culex-associated flaviviruses including West Nile, Japanese encephalitis and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses, although some Aedes spp. are also moderately competent vectors of these viruses. Conversely, many different mosquito genera were associated with the transmission of the arthritogenic alphaviruses, Ross River, Barmah Forest, and chikungunya viruses. We also confirm that vector competence is impacted by multiple barriers to infection and transmission within the mesenteron and salivary glands of the mosquito. Although these barriers represent important bottlenecks, species that were susceptible to infection with a virus were often likely to transmit it. Importantly, this synthesis provides essential information on what species need to be targeted in mosquito control programs.

Human-mediated impacts on biodiversity and the consequences for zoonotic disease spillover.

Human-mediated changes to natural ecosystems have consequences for both ecosystem and human health. Historically, efforts to preserve or restore 'biodiversity' can seem to be in opposition to human interests. However, the integration of biodiversity conservation and public health has gained significant traction in recent years, and new efforts to identify solutions that benefit both environmental and human health are ongoing. At the forefront of these efforts is an attempt to clarify ways in which biodiversity conservation can help reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover of pathogens from wild animals, sparking epidemics and pandemics in humans and livestock. However, our understanding of the mechanisms by which biodiversity change influences the spillover process is incomplete, limiting the application of integrated strategies aimed at achieving positive outcomes for both conservation and disease management. Here, we review the literature, considering a broad scope of biodiversity dimensions, to identify cases where zoonotic pathogen spillover is mechanistically linked to changes in biodiversity. By reframing the discussion around biodiversity and disease using mechanistic evidence - while encompassing multiple aspects of biodiversity including functional diversity, landscape diversity, phenological diversity, and interaction diversity - we work toward general principles that can guide future research and more effectively integrate the related goals of biodiversity conservation and spillover prevention. We conclude by summarizing how these principles could be used to integrate the goal of spillover prevention into ongoing biodiversity conservation initiatives.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Physiology and ecology combine to determine host and vector importance for Ross River virus.

Identifying the key vector and host species that drive the transmission of zoonotic pathogens is notoriously difficult but critical for disease control. We present a nested approach for quantifying the importance of host and vectors that integrates species' physiological competence with their ecological traits. We apply this framework to a medically important arbovirus, Ross River virus (RRV), in Brisbane, Australia. We find that vertebrate hosts with high physiological competence are not the most important for community transmission; interactions between hosts and vectors largely underpin the importance of host species. For vectors, physiological competence is highly important. Our results identify primary and secondary vectors of RRV and suggest two potential transmission cycles in Brisbane: an enzootic cycle involving birds and an urban cycle involving humans. The framework accounts for uncertainty from each fitted statistical model in estimates of species' contributions to transmission and has has direct application to other zoonotic pathogens.

Mosquito-Borne Viruses and Non-Human Vertebrates in Australia: A Review.

Mosquito-borne viruses are well recognized as a global public health burden amongst humans, but the effects on non-human vertebrates is rarely reported. Australia, houses a number of endemic mosquito-borne viruses, such as Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, and Murray Valley encephalitis virus. In this review, we synthesize the current state of mosquito-borne viruses impacting non-human vertebrates in Australia, including diseases that could be introduced due to local mosquito distribution. Given the unique island biogeography of Australia and the endemism of vertebrate species (including macropods and monotremes), Australia is highly susceptible to foreign mosquito species becoming established, and mosquito-borne viruses becoming endemic alongside novel reservoirs. For each virus, we summarize the known geographic distribution, mosquito vectors, vertebrate hosts, clinical signs and treatments, and highlight the importance of including non-human vertebrates in the assessment of future disease outbreaks. The mosquito-borne viruses discussed can impact wildlife, livestock, and companion animals, causing significant changes to Australian ecology and economy. The complex nature of mosquito-borne disease, and challenges in assessing the impacts to non-human vertebrate species, makes this an important topic to periodically review.

Species Traits and Hotspots Associated with Ross River Virus Infection in Nonhuman Vertebrates in South East Queensland.

Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic arbovirus associated with high public health and economic burdens across Australia, but particularly in South East Queensland (SEQ). Despite this high burden, humans are considered incidental hosts. Transmission of RRV is maintained among mosquitoes and many nonhuman vertebrate reservoir hosts, although the relative contributions of each of these hosts are unclear. To clarify the importance of a range of vertebrates in RRV transmission in SEQ, a total of 595 serum samples from 31 species were examined for RRV exposure using a gold-standard plaque reduction neutralization test. Data were analyzed statistically using generalized linear models and a coefficient inference tree, and spatially. RRV exposure was highly variable between and within species groups. Critically, species group ("placental mammal," "marsupial," and "bird"), which has previously been used as a proxy for reservoir hosts, was a poor correlate for exposure. Instead, we found that generalized "diet" and greater "body mass" were most strongly correlated with seropositivity. We also identified significant differences in seropositivity between the two major possum species (ringtail possums and brushtail possums), which are ecologically and taxonomically different. Finally, we identified distinct hotspots and coldspots of seropositivity in nonhuman vertebrates, which correlated with human notification data. This is the largest diversity of species tested for RRV in a single study to date. The analysis methods within this study provide a framework for analyzing serological data in combination with species traits for other zoonotic disease, but more specifically for RRV highlight areas to target further public health research and surveillance effort.

Utilising a novel surveillance system to enhance field screening activities for the leishmaniases.

Over the last decade, an arbovirus surveillance system based on the preservation of nucleic acids (RNA/DNA) has been developed using Flinders Technology Associates (FTAⓇ) cards. Soaked in honey, FTAⓇ cards are applied in the field to detect arboviruses expectorated during mosquito sugar feeding. This technique has been shown to be inexpensive and efficient, and the implementation of this system for detecting parasites could be of international importance. As Leishmania parasites are highly prevalent in developing countries, FTAⓇ cards may offer an alternative inexpensive tool to enhance field surveillance activities for leishmaniasis. The simple approach of applying the cards in programs can substitute the necessary extensive training of personnel. In our hands, Leishmania macropodum DNA was shown to be stable on FTAⓇ cards during a 10-week time course, supporting their suitability for projects where direct access to laboratories is unobtainable and samples require storage prior to processing. This method may benefit programs in remote areas where accessibility to laboratory facilities are limited and samples need to be stored long-term.•This study found that FTA cards could be a valuable tool in the surveillance of leishmaniasis.•The method is based on the long-term preservation and detection of Leishmania DNA expectorated during insect sugar feeding.•The application of FTA cards can preclude the need to screen large samples and analysis of insect populations to provide evidence of disease transmission.

Utilising a novel surveillance system to investigate species of Forcipomyia (Lasiohelea) (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) as the suspected vectors of Leishmania macropodum (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) in the Darwin region of Australia.

Up until recently, Australia was considered free of Leishmania due to the absence of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Phlebotominae) known to transmit Leishmania parasites in other parts of the world. The discovery of Leishmania (Mundinia) macropodum (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) in Northern Australia sparked questions as to the existence of alternative vectors of Leishmania. This has added to the complexity of fully understanding the parasite's interaction with its vector, which is known to be very specific. Previous findings demonstrated L. macropodum infection beyond the blood meal stage in the day-biting midges Forcipomyia (Lasiohelea) Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) implicating them in the parasite's life cycle. Currently, there is no conclusive evidence demonstrating this suspected vector to transmit L. macropodum to a naïve host. Therefore, this research aimed to investigate the vector competency of day-biting midge F. (Lasiohelea) to transmit L. macropodum utilising a novel technology that preserves nucleic acids. Honey-soaked Flinders Technology Associates (FTA®) filter-paper cards were used to obtain saliva expectorated from biting midges while sugar-feeding. F. (Lasiohelea) were aspirated directly off macropods from a known Leishmania-transmission site and were kept in a waxed-paper container holding a honey-coated FTA® card for feeding. Insect identification and Taqman quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) screening assays revealed L. macropodum DNA in F. (Lasiohelea) up to 7 days post field-collection, and in an unidentified biting midge, previously known as F. (Lasiohelea) sp.1. Moreover, 7/145 (4.83%) of FTA® cards were confirmed positive with L. macropodum DNA after exposure to field-collected F. (Lasiohelea). Additionally, FTA® cards were found to be a valuable surveillance tool, given the ease of use in the field and laboratory. Overall, our findings support previous reports on L. macropodum transmission by an alternative vector to phlebotomine sandflies. Further studies identifying and isolating infective L. macropodum promastigotes is necessary to resolve questions on the L. macropodum vector.

Associations Between Ross River Virus Infection in Humans and Vector-Vertebrate Community Ecology in Brisbane, Australia.

Transmission of vector-borne pathogens can vary in complexity from single-vector, single-host systems through to multivector, multihost vertebrate systems. Understanding the dynamics of transmission is important for disease prevention efforts, but is dependent on disentangling complex interactions within coupled natural systems. Ross River virus (RRV) is a multivector multihost pathogen responsible for the greatest number of notified vector-borne pathogen infections in humans in Australia. Current evidence suggests that nonhuman vertebrates are critical for the maintenance and spillover of RRV into mosquito populations. Yet, there is a limited knowledge of which mosquito vector species and amplifying vertebrate host species are most important for transmission of RRV to humans. We conducted field surveys of nonhuman vertebrates and mosquitoes in the RRV endemic city of Brisbane, Australia, to assess the effect of vector and host community structure on human RRV notifications. Six suburbs were selected across a gradient of human disease notification rates. Differences in vertebrate and mosquito compositions were observed across all suburbs. Suburbs with higher RRV notification rates contained greater vertebrate biomass (dominated by the presence of horses) and higher mosquito abundances. This study suggests that horse-mosquito interactions should be considered in more detail and that vertebrate biomass and mosquito abundance be incorporated into future RRV modeling studies and considered in public health strategies for RRV management.