Markov (Set) chains application to predict mortality rates using extended Milevsky-Promislov generalized mortality models.

The mortality rates ( µ x , t ) measure the frequency of deaths in a fixed: population and time interval. The ability to model and forecast µ x , t allows determining, among others, fundamental characteristics of life expectancy tables, e.g. used to determine the amount of premium in life insurance, adequate to the risk of death. The article proposes a new method of modelling and forecasting µ x , t , using the class of stochastic Milevsky-Promislov switch models with excitations. The excitations are modelled by second, fourth and sixth order polynomials of outputs from the non-Gaussian Linear Scalar Filter (nGLSF) model and taking into account the Markov (Set) chain. The Markov (Set) chain state space is defined based on even orders of the nGLSF polynomial. The model order determines the theoretical values of the death rates. The obtained results usually provide a more precise forecast of the mortality rates than the commonly used Lee-Carter model.

The orthogonal-oblique bi-level model of the Outcome Questionnaire (OQ-45.2): Polish adaptation based on factor analysis.

UNLABELLED: AIM : The aim of this project was to conduct the cross-cultural factorial validation of the Outcome Questionnaire (OQ-45.2) using the Polish population. METHODS: Data were obtained from day-patients (n = 211), inpatients (n = 234), outpatients (n = 137) and non-patients (n = 426). Statistical analyses included: parallel analysis, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, correlation analysis, criterion equivalence, clinical significance and reliable change index, and test-retest. RESULTS: Statistical analyses provided the strongest support for the bi-level model of the total score, five orthogonal (subscales specific for the Polish OQ, i.e. Social Conflicts and Addictive Behaviors; and original yet modified subscales, i.e. Symptom Distress, Interpersonal Relations, and Social Role), and two oblique factors (Somatization and Anxiety, Social Role 2). The psychometric properties of the Polish OQ were found to be adequate and similar to the original American OQ and its international adaptations. Specific for the Polish OQ cut-off scores for clinical significance were established. The role of cultural differences and the passage of time in the process of the cross-cultural validation were elaborated upon. CONCLUSIONS: The Polish version of the OQ 45-2 has been recognized as an instrument adequately measuring general functioning as well as specific areas of functioning of the individual (i.e. interpersonal relations; social role performance; social conflicts; symptom distress; somatization and anxiety; addictive behaviors). Results of this factorial analysis seem to be valuable for both clinicians using the OQ-45.2 and for creators of any psychotherapy outcome measure.

Effectiveness of group psychotherapy for adult outpatients traumatized by abuse, neglect, and/or pregnancy loss: a multiple-site, pre-post-follow-up, naturalistic study.

The New Experience for Survivors of Trauma (NEST) is a group psychotherapy intervention for clients traumatized by consequences of abuse, neglect, and pregnancy loss. This multiple site study is the first investigation of its effectiveness. Ninety outpatients from a naturalistic setting completed the Symptom Checklist and the Sense of Coherence questionnaire at baseline, end of treatment, and one-year follow-up. Effectiveness was tested with statistical significance, effect size, and clinical significance. Clients from the total sample as well as from the abortion subsample showed improvement at the end of treatment and at follow-up. Lack of a control group is balanced to some extent by the high ecological validity. The findings suggest that the NEST treatment may be beneficial for traumatized clients and call for further research.