Ecosystem services in connected catchment to coast ecosystems: Monitoring to detect emerging trends.

There is an increasing need for long-term monitoring of ecosystems and their services to inform on-ground management. The supply of many ecosystem services relies on connections that span multiple ecosystems. Monitoring the underlying condition of interconnected ecosystems is therefore required to track effectiveness of past interventions and identify impending change. Here we test the performance of indicators of ecosystem services with the aim of identifying the time-scales over which indicators of ecosystem services responded to change. We chose a case-study of a catchment in Northern Australia, where water resource development is a threat to the river flows that support vegetation growth and the life-cycle of coastal fishery species. We developed a novel approach to performance testing that drew on state-space modelling to capture ecological dynamics, and structural equation modelling to capture covariation in indicator time series. We first quantified covariation among three ecological indicators that had time-series data: pasture biomass, vegetation greenness and barramundi catch per unit effort. Higher values of all indicators occurred in years with greater river flow. We then predicted the emergence times for each indicator, as the time taken for a trend in an indicator to emerge from the background of natural variation. Emergence times were > 10 years in all cases, quantified at 80 % and higher confidence levels. Past trends and current status of ecosystem service flows are often used by decision makers to directly inform near-term actions, particularly for provisioning services (such as barramundi catch) due to their important contribution to regional economies. We found that ecological indicators could be used to assess historical performance over decadal timespans, but not as short-term indicators of recent change. More generally, we offer an approach to performance testing of indicators. This approach could be useful for quantifying timescales of ecosystem response in systems where cross-ecosystem connections are important.

Constructed Wetlands Suitability for Sugarcane Profitability, Freshwater Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

Freshwater ecosystems, such as wetlands, are among the most impacted by agricultural expansion and intensification through extensive drainage and pollution. There is a pressing need to identify ways of managing agricultural landscapes to ensure food and water security without jeopardising biodiversity and other environmental benefits. Here we examine the potential fish biodiversity and landholder financial benefits arising from the integration of constructed lagoons to improve drainage, flow regulation and habitat connectivity within a sugarcane dominated catchment in north Queensland, Australia. A hybrid approach was used, combining the findings of both fish ecological surveys and a financial cost-benefit analysis. We found that the constructed lagoons supported at least 36 native freshwater fishes (over half of all native freshwater fishes in the region), owing to their depth, vegetated margins, moderate water quality and high connectivity to the Tully River. In addition to biodiversity benefits, we estimated that surrounding sugarcane farms would have financially benefited from reduced flooding of cropland and the elevation of low-lying cropland with deposited spoil excavated from lagoon construction. Improved drainage and flow regulation allowed for improvement in sugarcane yield and elevated land increased gross margins from extending the length of the cane production cycle or enabling a switch from cattle grazing to cane production. Restoring or creating wetlands to reduce flooding in flood-prone catchments is a globally applicable model that could improve both agricultural productivity and aquatic biodiversity, while potentially increasing farm income by attracting payments for provision of ecosystem services.

Challenges in modelling the sediment retention ecosystem service to inform an ecosystem account - Examples from the Mitchell catchment in northern Australia.

A systems analysis perspective related to soil science is necessary to achieve many of the sustainability targets articulated by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) framework is the international statistical standard for quantifying both the contributions that ecosystems make to the economy, and the impacts of economic activity on ecosystems. However, due to the difficulty of obtaining empirical data on ecosystem service flows, in many cases such quantification is informed by ecosystem service models. Previous research on the Mitchell catchment, Queensland Australia provided a novel opportunity to quantify the implications of using a model of hillslope erosion and sediment delivery in isolation (as represented in one of the most frequently used ecosystem service models - InVEST), by comparing such estimates against multiple lines of local empirical data, and a more comprehensive representation of locally important erosion and deposition processes through a sediment budget model. Estimates of the magnitude of hillslope erosion modelled using an approach similar to InVEST and the calibrated sediment budget differed by an order of magnitude. If an uncalibrated InVEST-type model was used to inform the relative distribution of erosion magnitude, findings suggest the incorrect erosion process would be identified as the dominant contributor to suspended sediment loads. However, the sediment budget model could only be calibrated using data on sediment sources and sinks that had been collected through sustained research effort in the catchment. A comparable level of research investment may not be available to inform ecosystem service assessments elsewhere. Findings for the Mitchell catchment demonstrate that practitioners should exercise caution when using model-derived estimates of the sediment retention ecosystem service, which have not been calibrated and validated against locally collected empirical data, to inform an ecosystem account and progress towards achieving the SDGs.

Increasing the cost-effectiveness of nutrient reduction targets using different spatial scales.

In this paper, we investigate the potential gains in cost-effectiveness from changing the spatial scale at which nutrient reduction targets are set for the Baltic Sea, with particular focus on nutrient loadings from agriculture. The costs of achieving loading reductions are compared across five levels of spatial scale, namely the entire Baltic Sea; the marine basin level; the country level; the watershed level; and the grid square level. A novel highly-disaggregated model, which represents decreases in agricultural profits, changes in root zone N concentrations and transport to the Baltic Sea is used. The model includes 14 Baltic Sea marine basins, 14 countries, 117 watersheds and 19,023 10-by-10 km grid squares. The main result which emerges is that there is a large variation in the total cost of the program depending on the spatial scale of targeting: for example, for a 40% reduction in loads, the costs of a Baltic Sea-wide target is nearly three times lower than targets set at the smallest level of spatial scale (grid square). These results have important implications for both domestic and international policy design for achieving water quality improvements where non-point pollution is a key stressor of water quality.

Motivators and barriers to adoption of Improved Land Management Practices. A focus on practice change for water quality improvement in Great Barrier Reef catchments.

To protect and improve water quality in the Great Barrier Reef, the Queensland Government's Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan targets that 90% of sugarcane, horticulture, cropping and grazing lands in priority areas be managed using best management practices for sediment, nutrient and pesticides by 2025. Progress towards this target is insufficient and variable across catchments and industries. The motivation to adopt improvements in management practices is heavily influenced by social, economic, cultural and institutional dimensions. In this paper we synthesise the literature on how these human dimensions influence decision making for land management practice and highlight where future investment could be focussed. We highlight that focussing on -1) investigating systems to support landholder decision making under climate uncertainty (risk); 2) generating a better understanding of the extent and drivers of landholder transaction cost; 3) understanding if there are competing 'right' ways to farm; and 4) improving understanding of the social processes, trust and power dynamics within GBR industries and what these means for practice change- could improve practice change uptake in the future.

Land use conversion to improve water quality in high DIN risk, low-lying sugarcane areas of the Great Barrier Reef catchments.

Eutrophication of coastal and nearshore receiving environments downstream of intensive agricultural production areas is a global issue. The Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan (2017-2022) sets ambitious targets for reducing pollutant loads entering the Great Barrier Reef from contributing agricultural catchments. At a regional scale, the Wet Tropics end-of-catchment target load reduction for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) is 60% from the 2012-2013 anthropogenic load level. However, not even with the combined efforts of the Reef Regulations (December 2019) mandate and adoption of best practice nutrient management on farm, is it likely that these DIN targets will be reached. Thus, there is a need for innovative and cost-effective approaches to deliver further water quality improvement. Transitioning low-lying, marginal sugarcane land to alternative land uses that require lower or no nitrogen inputs, but still provide farmers with income streams, is a potentially attractive solution. In this study, a multi-criteria analysis was conducted to identify sites suitable for such alternative land uses. The cost-effectiveness of DIN reductions from these land use changes were calculated, accounting for reductions in annuity gross margins and land conversion cost. In certain locations (where conversion costs are low and DIN reductions are high) treatment wetlands and no-input cattle grazing offer cost-effective DIN reduction in the range of 20-26$/kg DIN. This compares favourably with existing agricultural extension-based approaches (c. $50/kg DIN reduction). Ecosystem service wetlands (i.e., wetland restoration for fish production) - again when appropriately situated - offer the prospect of even more cost-effective performance (11-14 $/kg DIN reduction). These results, in conjunction with best management practices, support the premise that alternative land uses are cost-effective options for improving water quality in certain areas of low-lying, low productivity sugarcane land. On-going investments by government in addition to private market funding mechanisms could be appropriate for supporting such land use transitions. These approaches need to be tested and refined via targeted pilot projects, as part of a whole-of-landscape approach to achieve broader reef water quality targets.

Vegetation and longitudinal coarse sediment connectivity affect the ability of ecosystem restoration to reduce riverbank erosion and turbidity in drinking water.

It is a substantial challenge to quantify the benefits which ecosystems provide to water supply at scales large enough to support policy making. This study tested the hypothesis that vegetation could reduce riverbank erosion, and therefore contribute to reducing turbidity and the cost of water supply, during a large magnitude flood along a 62 km riparian corridor where land cover differed substantially from natural conditions. Several lines of evidence were used to establish the benefits that vegetation provided to reducing eleven riverbank erosion processes over 1688 observations. The data and analyses confirmed that vegetation significantly reduced the magnitude of the riverbank erosion process which was the largest contributor to total erosion volume. For this process, a 1% increase in canopy cover of trees higher than five metres reduced erosion magnitude by between 2 and 3%. Results also indicate that riverbank erosion was likely to be affected by direct changes to the riparian corridor which influenced longitudinal coarse sediment connectivity. When comparing the impact of these direct changes on a relative basis, sand and gravel extraction was likely to be the dominant contributor to changed erosion rates. The locations where erosion rates had substantially increased were of limited spatial extent and in general substantial change in river form had not occurred. This suggests that the trajectory of river condition and increasing turbidity are potentially reversible if the drivers of river degradation are addressed through an ecosystem restoration policy.

Using a choice experiment and birder preferences to guide bird-conservation funding.

Conservation of biodiversity, including birds, continues to challenge natural-area managers. Stated-preference methods (e.g., choice experiment [CE]) are increasingly used to provide data for valuation of natural ecosystems. We used a CE to calculate birders' willingness to pay for different levels of bioecological attributes (threatened species, endemic species, and diversity) of birding sites with hypothetical entry fees. The CE was delivered at popular birding and avitourism sites in Australia and the United Kingdom. Latent-class modeling results revealed heterogeneous preferences among birders and correspondingly variable willingness to pay. Four clear groups were apparent: quantity-driven birders, special-birds seekers, confused respondents, and price-is-no-object birders. Quantity-driven birders were attracted to sites that deliver high levels of diversity and endemic species for which they were willing to pay $135 and $66 to visit, respectively, above what they were willing to pay to visit a site with low levels of diversity and few endemic and threatened species . Special-bird seekers valued threatened species and high levels of endemic species most (willingness to pay $45 and $46, respectively). Confused respondents' preferences were difficult to determine, but they were the most sensitive to the hypothetical entry fees, unlike the price-is-no-object birders, who were not at all sensitive to cost. Our findings demonstrate that birders are amenable to paying for their preferred birding experience. These payments could provide an alternative source of funding in some avitourism sites on both public and private land. Such alternative revenue streams should be explored and given full consideration in increasingly competitive conservation-financing environments.

Reduction of Baltic Sea nutrient inputs and allocation of abatement costs within the Baltic Sea catchment.

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion Euro.

Fisheries mismanagement.

We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years. In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics.

Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city.

Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of approximately 0.5 Pgxy(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 kmxy(-1), and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 kmxy(-1). This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mgxha(-1); 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity.

Assessment of temporal trends in ecosystem health using an holistic indicator.

The Ecosystem Approach to environmental management, with its explicit acknowledgment of the environmental, social and economic elements within ecological systems, is becoming increasingly adopted by managers and policy makers. However, there are few specific prescriptions as to exactly how these different elements should be integrated, or examples where historical changes have been tracked. Here, we assess the potential benefits and challenges of applying an Ecosystem Approach to management using one particular method, the Holistic Ecosystem Health Indicator (HEHI), which integrates data from the ecological, social and interactive dimensions into a single composite index of ecosystem 'health'. We apply it to one of the best-documented catchments in the UK, the Ythan Estuary in Aberdeenshire, Scotland, based on a 50-year time series of data. The evaluation of ecosystem health over time is lacking in previous applications of HEHI, yet is crucial for the assessment of the utility of this approach to ecosystem management. The application of HEHI yielded different insights to those revealed from the traditional application of biophysical approaches for managing the Ythan. Overall, ecological health declined through the 50-year period, although it increased marginally in the last decade, while social and interactive dimensions followed the opposite trend. HEHI indicated a steady increase in ecosystem health overall except for the last decade, when it declined marginally. Our evaluation of the application of ecosystem health for the Ythan revealed major data gaps. For the approach to be used more widely, issues of data availability and the temporal and geographical mismatch between ecological and social research boundaries need to be overcome.

Diving behaviour of whale sharks in relation to a predictable food pulse.

We present diving data for four whale sharks in relation to a predictable food pulse (reef fish spawn) and an analysis of the longest continuous fine-resolution diving record for a planktivorous shark. Fine-resolution pressure data from a recovered pop-up archival satellite tag deployed for 206 days on a whale shark were analysed using the fast Fourier Transform method for frequency domain analysis of time-series. The results demonstrated that a free-ranging whale shark displays ultradian, diel and circa-lunar rhythmicity of diving behaviour. Whale sharks dive to over 979.5 m and can tolerate a temperature range of 26.4 degrees C. The whale sharks made primarily diurnal deep dives and remained in relatively shallow waters at night. Whale shark diving patterns are influenced by a seasonally predictable food source, with shallower dives made during fish spawning periods.

The current and future management of wild mammals hunted with dogs in England and Wales.

There is increasing concern about the use of lethal methods to control wild mammal populations, especially those methods that may have significant impacts on animal welfare. The continued use of dogs to hunt wild mammals in England and Wales, principally foxes (Vulpes vulpes), red deer (Cervus elaphus), brown hares (Lepus europaeus) and mink (Mustela vison), has become a focus for political debate and has been the subject of a recent UK government inquiry. This paper reports the results of a questionnaire study to quantify the use, effectiveness and acceptability of the different methods currently used to manage these four species, and future changes in management following a possible ban on hunting with dogs. There was no straightforward relationship between culling pressure and perceived pest status of the different species from the questionnaire data. For foxes and brown hares, the proportion of land managers (practitioners) carrying out lethal control was higher than that considering these species to be pests. However, the reverse was the case for mink. The most frequently used and effective control methods, which were most acceptable to practitioners and public alike, were various forms of shooting. The general public perceived hunting with dogs as one of the least acceptable means of control for all four species. Practitioners thought that hunting with dogs for red deer and the use of terriers against foxes were among the least acceptable forms of control, but considered hunting with dogs in other situations and for other species to be relatively acceptable. Most practitioners said a ban on hunting with dogs would make no difference to their management of the four species. A ban on hunting with dogs would have minimal impact on populations of foxes, red deer and mink, but it may be of conservation benefit to hares.