The Association between Blood Test Trends and Undiagnosed Cancer: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal.

Clinical guidelines include monitoring blood test abnormalities to identify patients at increased risk of undiagnosed cancer. Noting blood test changes over time may improve cancer risk stratification by considering a patient's individual baseline and important changes within the normal range. We aimed to review the published literature to understand the association between blood test trends and undiagnosed cancer. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched until 15 May 2023 for studies assessing the association between blood test trends and undiagnosed cancer. We used descriptive summaries and narratively synthesised studies. We included 29 articles. Common blood tests were haemoglobin (24%, n = 7), C-reactive protein (17%, n = 5), and fasting blood glucose (17%, n = 5), and common cancers were pancreatic (29%, n = 8) and colorectal (17%, n = 5). Of the 30 blood tests studied, an increasing trend in eight (27%) was associated with eight cancer types, and a decreasing trend in 17 (57%) with 10 cancer types. No association was reported between trends in 11 (37%) tests and breast, bile duct, glioma, haematological combined, liver, prostate, or thyroid cancers. Our review highlights trends in blood tests that could facilitate the identification of individuals at increased risk of undiagnosed cancer. For most possible combinations of tests and cancers, there was limited or no evidence.

"My Dead Body": Development, production, and reception of a documentary that publicly displays the dissection of a human donor.

Recently, there has been an emphasis on keeping the study of anatomy using donor material confined to the domain of medical and allied healthcare professionals. Given the abundance of both accurate and inaccurate information online, coupled with a heightened focus on health following the COVID-19 pandemic, one may question whether it is time to review who can access learning anatomy using donors. In 2019, Brighton and Sussex Medical School (BSMS) obtained a Human Tissue Authority Public Display license with the aim of broadening the reach of who could be taught using donor material. In 2020, BSMS received its first full-body donor with consent for public display. Twelve workshops were delivered to student groups who do not normally have the opportunity to learn in the anatomy laboratory. Survey responses (10.9% response rate) highlighted that despite being anxious about seeing inside a deceased body, 95% felt more informed about the body. A documentary "My Dead Body" was filmed, focusing on the rare cancer of the donor Toni Crews. Viewing figures of 1.5 million, and a considerable number of social media comments highlighted the public's interest in the documentary. Thematic analysis of digital and social media content highlighted admiration and gratitude for Toni, the value of education, and that while the documentary was uncomfortable to watch, it had value in reminding viewers of life, their bodies, and their purpose. Fully consented public display can create opportunities to promote health-conscious life choices and improve understanding of the human body.

Age-specific nasal epithelial responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Children infected with SARS-CoV-2 rarely progress to respiratory failure. However, the risk of mortality in infected people over 85 years of age remains high. Here we investigate differences in the cellular landscape and function of paediatric (<12 years), adult (30-50 years) and older adult (>70 years) ex vivo cultured nasal epithelial cells in response to infection with SARS-CoV-2. We show that cell tropism of SARS-CoV-2, and expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in nasal epithelial cell subtypes, differ between age groups. While ciliated cells are viral replication centres across all age groups, a distinct goblet inflammatory subtype emerges in infected paediatric cultures and shows high expression of interferon-stimulated genes and incomplete viral replication. In contrast, older adult cultures infected with SARS-CoV-2 show a proportional increase in basaloid-like cells, which facilitate viral spread and are associated with altered epithelial repair pathways. We confirm age-specific induction of these cell types by integrating data from in vivo COVID-19 studies and validate that our in vitro model recapitulates early epithelial responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Lentiviral expression of wild-type LAMA3A restores cell adhesion in airway basal cells from children with epidermolysis bullosa.

The hallmark of epidermolysis bullosa (EB) is fragile attachment of epithelia due to genetic variants in cell adhesion genes. We describe 16 EB patients treated in the ear, nose, and throat department of a tertiary pediatric hospital linked to the United Kingdom's national EB unit between 1992 and 2023. Patients suffered a high degree of morbidity and mortality from laryngotracheal stenosis. Variants in laminin subunit alpha-3 (LAMA3) were found in 10/15 patients where genotype was available. LAMA3 encodes a subunit of the laminin-332 heterotrimeric extracellular matrix protein complex and is expressed by airway epithelial basal stem cells. We investigated the benefit of restoring wild-type LAMA3 expression in primary EB patient-derived basal cell cultures. EB basal cells demonstrated weak adhesion to cell culture substrates, but could otherwise be expanded similarly to non-EB basal cells. In vitro lentiviral overexpression of LAMA3A in EB basal cells enabled them to differentiate in air-liquid interface cultures, producing cilia with normal ciliary beat frequency. Moreover, transduction restored cell adhesion to levels comparable to a non-EB donor culture. These data provide proof of concept for a combined cell and gene therapy approach to treat airway disease in LAMA3-affected EB.

Ten-Year Stability of an Insomnia Sleeper Phenotype and Its Association With Chronic Conditions.

OBJECTIVE: To identify distinct sleep health phenotypes in adults, examine transitions in sleep health phenotypes over time, and subsequently relate these to the risk of chronic conditions. METHODS: A national sample of adults from the Midlife in the United States study ( N = 3683) provided longitudinal data with two time points (T1: 2004-2006, T2: 2013-2017). Participants self-reported on sleep health (regularity, satisfaction, alertness, efficiency, duration) and the number and type of chronic conditions. Covariates included age, sex, race, education, education, partnered status, number of children, work status, smoking, alcohol, and physical activity. RESULTS: Latent transition analysis identified four sleep health phenotypes across both time points: good sleepers, insomnia sleepers, weekend catch-up sleepers, and nappers. Between T1 and T2, the majority (77%) maintained their phenotype, with the nappers and insomnia sleepers being the most stable. In fully adjusted models with good sleepers at both time points as the reference, being an insomnia sleeper at either time point was related to having an increased number of total chronic conditions by 28%-81% at T2, adjusting for T1 conditions. Insomnia sleepers at both time points were at 72%-188% higher risk for cardiovascular disease, diabetes, depression, and frailty. Being a napper at any time point related to increased risks for diabetes, cancer, and frailty. Being a weekend catch-up sleeper was not associated with chronic conditions. Those with lower education and unemployed were more likely to be insomnia sleepers; older adults and retirees were more likely to be nappers. CONCLUSION: Findings indicate a heightened risk of chronic conditions involved in suboptimal sleep health phenotypes, mainly insomnia sleepers.

Biallelic variants in Plexin B2 (PLXNB2) cause amelogenesis imperfecta, hearing loss and intellectual disability.

BACKGROUND: Plexins are large transmembrane receptors for the semaphorin family of signalling proteins. Semaphorin-plexin signalling controls cellular interactions that are critical during development as well as in adult life stages. Nine plexin genes have been identified in humans, but despite the apparent importance of plexins in development, only biallelic PLXND1 and PLXNA1 variants have so far been associated with Mendelian genetic disease. METHODS: Eight individuals from six families presented with a recessively inherited variable clinical condition, with core features of amelogenesis imperfecta (AI) and sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL), with variable intellectual disability. Probands were investigated by exome or genome sequencing. Common variants and those unlikely to affect function were excluded. Variants consistent with autosomal recessive inheritance were prioritised. Variant segregation analysis was performed by Sanger sequencing. RNA expression analysis was conducted in C57Bl6 mice. RESULTS: Rare biallelic pathogenic variants in plexin B2 (PLXNB2), a large transmembrane semaphorin receptor protein, were found to segregate with disease in all six families. The variants identified include missense, nonsense, splicing changes and a multiexon deletion. Plxnb2 expression was detected in differentiating ameloblasts. CONCLUSION: We identify rare biallelic pathogenic variants in PLXNB2 as a cause of a new autosomal recessive, phenotypically diverse syndrome with AI and SNHL as core features. Intellectual disability, ocular disease, ear developmental abnormalities and lymphoedema were also present in multiple cases. The variable syndromic human phenotype overlaps with that seen in Plxnb2 knockout mice, and, together with the rarity of human PLXNB2 variants, may explain why pathogenic variants in PLXNB2 have not been reported previously.

fNIRS is capable of distinguishing laterality of lower body contractions.

The use of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) for brain imaging during human movement continues to increase. This technology measures brain activity non-invasively using near-infrared light, is highly portable, and robust to motion artifact. However, the spatial resolution of fNIRS is lower than that of other imaging modalities. It is unclear whether fNIRS has sufficient spatial resolution to differentiate nearby areas of the cortex, such as the leg areas of the motor cortex. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine fNIRS' ability to discern laterality of lower body contractions. Activity in the primary motor cortex was recorded in forty participants (mean = 23.4 years, SD = 4.5, female = 23, male = 17) while performing unilateral lower body contractions. Contractions were performed at 30% of maximal force against a handheld dynamometer. These contractions included knee extension, knee flexion, dorsiflexion, and plantar flexion of the left and right legs. fNIRS signals were recorded and stored for offline processing and analysis. Channels of fNIRS data were grouped into regions of interest, with five tolerance conditions ranging from strict to lenient. Four of five tolerance conditions resulted in significant differences in cortical activation between hemispheres. During right leg contractions, the left hemisphere was more active than the right hemisphere. Similarly, during left leg contractions, the right hemisphere was more active than the left hemisphere. These results suggest that fNIRS has sufficient spatial resolution to distinguish laterality of lower body contractions. This makes fNIRS an attractive technology in research and clinical applications in which laterality of brain activity is required during lower body activity.

flepiMoP: The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called the COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed for creating and simulating compartmental models of infectious disease transmission and inferring parameters through these models. The framework has been used extensively to produce short-term forecasts and longer-term scenario projections of COVID-19 at the state and county level in the US, for COVID-19 in other countries at various geographic scales, and more recently for seasonal influenza. In this paper, we highlight how the flepiMoP has evolved throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to address changing epidemiological dynamics, new interventions, and shifts in policy-relevant model outputs. As the framework has reached a mature state, we provide a detailed overview of flepiMoP's key features and remaining limitations, thereby distributing flepiMoP and its documentation as a flexible and powerful tool for researchers and public health professionals to rapidly build and deploy large-scale complex infectious disease models for any pathogen and demographic setup.

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients.

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.

From Pre-test and Post-test Probabilities to Medical Decision Making.

Background: A central goal of modern evidence-based medicine is the development of simple and easy to use tools that help clinicians integrate quantitative information into medical decision-making. The Bayesian Pre-test/Post-test Probability (BPP) framework is arguably the most well known of such tools and provides a formal approach to quantify diagnostic uncertainty given the result of a medical test or the presence of a clinical sign. Yet, clinical decision-making goes beyond quantifying diagnostic uncertainty and requires that that uncertainty be balanced against the various costs and benefits associated with each possible decision. Despite increasing attention in recent years, simple and flexible approaches to quantitative clinical decision-making have remained elusive. Methods: We extend the BPP framework using concepts of Bayesian Decision Theory. By integrating cost, we can expand the BPP framework to allow for clinical decision-making. Results: We develop a simple quantitative framework for binary clinical decisions (e.g., action/inaction, treat/no-treat, test/no-test). Let p be the pre-test or post-test probability that a patient has disease. We show that r*=(1-p)/p represents a critical value called a decision boundary. In terms of the relative cost of under- to over-acting, r* represents the critical value at which action and inaction are equally optimal. We demonstrate how this decision boundary can be used at the bedside through case studies and as a research tool through a reanalysis of a recent study which found widespread misestimation of pre-test and post-test probabilities among clinicians. Conclusions: Our approach is so simple that it should be thought of as a core, yet previously overlooked, part of the BPP framework. Unlike prior approaches to quantitative clinical decision-making, our approach requires little more than a hand-held calculator, is applicable in almost any setting where the BPP framework can be used, and excels in situations where the costs and benefits associated with a particular decision are patient-specific and difficult to quantify.

Adequacy of clinical guideline recommendations for patients with low-risk cancer managed with monitoring: systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review was to summarize national and international guidelines that made recommendations for monitoring patients diagnosed with low-risk cancer. It appraised the quality of guidelines and determined whether the guidelines adequately identified patients for monitoring, specified which tests to use, defined monitoring intervals, and stated triggers for further intervention. It then assessed the evidence to support each recommendation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses, we searched PubMed and Turning Research into Practice databases for national and international guidelines' that were written in English and developed or updated between 2012 and 2023. Quality of individual guidelines was assessed using the AGREE II tool. RESULTS: Across the 41 published guidelines, 48 different recommendations were identified: 15 (31%) for prostate cancer, 11 (23%) for renal cancer, 6 (12.5%) for thyroid cancer, and 10 (21%) for blood cancer. The remaining 6 (12.5%) were for brain, gastrointestinal, oral cavity, bone and pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma cancer. When combining all guidelines, 48 (100%) stated which patients qualify for monitoring, 31 (65%) specified which tests to use, 25 (52%) provided recommendations for surveillance intervals, and 23 (48%) outlined triggers to initiate intervention. Across all cancer sites, there was a strong positive trend with higher levels of evidence being associated with an increased likelihood of a recommendation being specific (P = 0.001) and the evidence for intervals was based on expert opinion or other guidance. CONCLUSION: With the exception of prostate cancer, the evidence base for monitoring low-risk cancer is weak and consequently recommendations in clinical guidelines are inconsistent. There is a lack of direct evidence to support monitoring recommendations in the literature making guideline developers reliant on expert opinion, alternative guidelines, or indirect or nonspecific evidence.

The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy.

Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to guide pandemic planning and decision-making in the context of high uncertainty. This effort was born out of an attempt to coordinate, synthesize and effectively use the unprecedented amount of predictive modeling that emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we describe the history of this massive collective research effort, the process of convening and maintaining an open modeling hub active over multiple years, and attempt to provide a blueprint for future efforts. We detail the process of generating 17 rounds of scenarios and projections at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and disseminating results to the public health community and lay public. We also highlight how SMH was expanded to generate influenza projections during the 2022-23 season. We identify key impacts of SMH results on public health and draw lessons to improve future collaborative modeling efforts, research on scenario projections, and the interface between models and policy.

Neutrophil responses to RSV infection show differences between infant and adult neutrophils.

INTRODUCTION: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a severe respiratory condition, bronchiolitis, in infants but not in adults. Bronchiolitis is characterised by neutrophilic infiltration in the airways, but whether neutrophils enhance recovery from infection or contribute to its pathology remains unknown. METHODS: We used a novel in-vitro model to compare term umbilical cord blood (infant) (n=17 donors) and adult neutrophils (n=15 donors) during migration across RSV-infected differentiated human nasal airway epithelial cells (AECs) in a basolateral to apical direction. RESULTS: Greater numbers of infant neutrophils (mean (95% CI)) (336 684 (242 352 to 431 015)) migrated across RSV-infected AECs to the apical compartment (equivalent to the airway lumen) compared with adult neutrophils (56 586 (24 954 to 88 218)) (p<0.0001). Having reached the apical compartment of infected AECs, much greater numbers of infant neutrophils (140 787 (103 117 to 178 456)) became apoptotic compared with adult (5853 (444 to 11 261)) (p=0.002). Infant neutrophils displayed much greater expression of CD11b, CD64, neutrophil elastase (NE) and myeloperoxidase (MPO) than adult neutrophils at baseline and at all points of migration. However, as adult neutrophils migrated, expression of CD11b, CD64, NE and MPO became greater than at baseline. DISCUSSION: The high proportion of infant neutrophils migrating across RSV-infected AECs correlates with the neutrophilic infiltrate seen in infants with severe RSV bronchiolitis, with large numbers undergoing apoptosis, which may represent a protective mechanism during infection. Compared with adult neutrophils, infant neutrophils already have high expression of surface markers before contact with AECs or migration, with less capacity to increase further in response to RSV infection or migration.

Salivary IgA and vimentin differentiate in vitro SARS-CoV-2 infection: A study of 290 convalescent COVID-19 patients.

SARS-CoV-2 initially infects cells in the nasopharynx and oral cavity. The immune system at these mucosal sites plays a crucial role in minimizing viral transmission and infection. To develop new strategies for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection, this study aimed to identify proteins that protect against viral infection in saliva. We collected 551 saliva samples from 290 healthcare workers who had tested positive for COVID-19, before vaccination, between June and December 2020. The samples were categorized based on their ability to block or enhance infection using in vitro assays. Mass spectrometry and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay experiments were used to identify and measure the abundance of proteins that specifically bind to SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Immunoglobulin (Ig)A specific to SARS-CoV-2 antigens was detectable in over 83% of the convalescent saliva samples. We found that concentrations of anti-receptor-binding domain IgA >500 pg/µg total protein in saliva correlate with reduced viral infectivity in vitro. However, there is a dissociation between the salivary IgA response to SARS-CoV-2, and systemic IgG titers in convalescent COVID-19 patients. Then, using an innovative technique known as spike-baited mass spectrometry, we identified novel spike-binding proteins in saliva, most notably vimentin, which correlated with increased viral infectivity in vitro and could serve as a therapeutic target against COVID-19.

Heterozygous COL17A1 variants are a frequent cause of amelogenesis imperfecta.

BACKGROUND: Collagen XVII is most typically associated with human disease when biallelic COL17A1 variants (>230) cause junctional epidermolysis bullosa (JEB), a rare, genetically heterogeneous, mucocutaneous blistering disease with amelogenesis imperfecta (AI), a developmental enamel defect. Despite recognition that heterozygous carriers in JEB families can have AI, and that heterozygous COL17A1 variants also cause dominant corneal epithelial recurrent erosion dystrophy (ERED), the importance of heterozygous COL17A1 variants causing dominant non-syndromic AI is not widely recognised. METHODS: Probands from an AI cohort were screened by single molecule molecular inversion probes or targeted hybridisation capture (both a custom panel and whole exome sequencing) for COL17A1 variants. Patient phenotypes were assessed by clinical examination and analyses of affected teeth. RESULTS: Nineteen unrelated probands with isolated AI (no co-segregating features) had 17 heterozygous, potentially pathogenic COL17A1 variants, including missense, premature termination codons, frameshift and splice site variants in both the endo-domains and the ecto-domains of the protein. The AI phenotype was consistent with enamel of near normal thickness and variable focal hypoplasia with surface irregularities including pitting. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that COL17A1 variants are a frequent cause of dominantly inherited non-syndromic AI. Comparison of variants implicated in AI and JEB identifies similarities in type and distribution, with five identified in both conditions, one of which may also cause ERED. Increased availability of genetic testing means that more individuals will receive reports of heterozygous COL17A1 variants. We propose that patients with isolated AI or ERED, due to COL17A1 variants, should be considered as potential carriers for JEB and counselled accordingly, reflecting the importance of multidisciplinary care.

Association of Internal Medicine Point of Care Ultrasound (POCUS) with Length of Stay, Hospitalization Costs, and Formal Imaging: a Prospective Cohort Study.

Background: Point of care ultrasound (POCUS) use has rapidly expanded among internal medicine (IM) physicians in practice and residency training programs. Many benefits have been established; however, studies demonstrating the impact of POCUS on system metrics are few and mostly limited to the emergency department or intensive care setting. The study objective was to evaluate the impact of inpatient POCUS on patient outcomes and hospitalization metrics. Methods: Prospective cohort study of 12,399 consecutive adult admissions to 22 IM teaching attendings, at a quaternary care teaching hospital (7/1/2011-6/30/2015), with or without POCUS available during a given hospitalization. Multivariable regression and propensity score matching (PSM) analyses compared multiple hospital metric outcomes (costs, length of stay, radiology-based imaging, satisfaction, etc.) between the "POCUS available" vs. "POCUS unavailable" groups as well as the "POCUS available" subgroups of "POCUS used" vs. "POCUS not used". Results: Patients in the "POCUS available" vs. "POCUS unavailable" group had lower mean total and per-day hospital costs ($17,474 vs. $21,803, p<0.001; $2,805.88 vs. $3,557.53, p<0.001), lower total and per-day radiology cost ($705.41 vs. $829.12, p<0.001; $163.11 vs. $198.53, p<0.001), fewer total chest X-rays (1.31 vs. 1.55, p=0.01), but more chest CTs (0.22 vs 0.15; p=0.001). Mean length of stay (LOS) was 5.77 days (95% CI = 5.63, 5.91) in the "POCUS available" group vs. 6.08 95% CI (5.66, 6.51) in the "POCUS unavailable" group (p=0.14). Within the "POCUS available" group, cost analysis with a 4:1 PSM (including LOS as a covariate) compared patients receiving POCUS vs. those that could have but did not, and also showed total and per-day cost savings in the "POCUS used" subgroup ($15,082 vs. 15,746; p<0.001 and $2,685 vs. $2,753; p=0.04). Conclusions: Availability and selected use of POCUS was associated with a meaningful reduction in total hospitalization cost, radiology cost, and chest X-rays for hospitalized patients.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

EMBIO trial study protocol: left gastric artery embolisation for weight loss in patients living with obesity with a BMI 35-50 kg/m2.

INTRODUCTION: Left gastric artery embolisation (LGAE) is a well-established treatment for major upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding when control is not established via upper GI endoscopy and recently has shown promising results for weight loss in small single arm studies. LGAE could be a treatment option in between our current tier-3 and tier-4 services for obesity. EMBIO is a National Institute for Health Research funded trial, a multicentre double-blinded randomised controlled trial between Imperial College National Health Service Trust and University College London Hospital, comparing LGAE versus Placebo procedure. The key aims of the trial is to evaluate LGAE efficacy on weight loss, its mechanism of action, safety profile and obesity-related comorbidities. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: 76 participants will be recruited from the existing tier-3 database after providing informed consent. Key inclusion criteria include adults aged 18-70 with a body mass index 35-50 kg/m2 and appropriate anatomy of the left gastric artery and coeliac plexus on CT Angiogram. Key exclusion criteria included previous major abdominal and bariatric surgery, weight >150 kg, type 2 diabetes on any medications other than metformin and the use of weight modifying medications. Participants will undergo mechanistic visits 1 week prior to the intervention and 3, 6 and 12 months postintervention. Informed consent will be received from each participant and they will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to left gastric artery embolisation and placebo treatment. Blinding strategies include the use of moderate doses of sedation, visual and auditory isolation. All participants will enter a tier-3 weight management programme postintervention. The primary analysis will estimate the difference between the groups in the mean per cent weight loss at 12 months. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This trial shall be conducted in full conformity with the 1964 Declaration of Helsinki and all subsequent revisions. Local research ethics approval was granted by London-Central Research Ethics Committee, (Reference 19/LO/0509) on 11 October 2019. The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) issued the Letter of No Objection on 8 April 2022 (Reference CI/2022/0008/GB). The trial's development and progress are monitored by an independent trial steering committee and data monitoring and ethics committee. The researchers plan to disseminate results at conferences, in peer- reviewed journals as well as lay media and to patient organisations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN16158402.