Principled distillation of UK Biobank phenotype data reveals underlying structure in human variation.

Data within biobanks capture broad yet detailed indices of human variation, but biobank-wide insights can be difficult to extract due to complexity and scale. Here, using large-scale factor analysis, we distill hundreds of variables (diagnoses, assessments and survey items) into 35 latent constructs, using data from unrelated individuals with predominantly estimated European genetic ancestry in UK Biobank. These factors recapitulate known disease classifications, disentangle elements of socioeconomic status, highlight the relevance of psychiatric constructs to health and improve measurement of pro-health behaviours. We go on to demonstrate the power of this approach to clarify genetic signal, enhance discovery and identify associations between underlying phenotypic structure and health outcomes. In building a deeper understanding of ways in which constructs such as socioeconomic status, trauma, or physical activity are structured in the dataset, we emphasize the importance of considering the interwoven nature of the human phenome when evaluating public health patterns.

Novel genomic variants related to visceral adiposity index (VAI) and body adiposity index (BAI) in Indian sib-pairs.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is among the leading public health threats globally. Over the last few years, visceral adiposity index (VAI), and body adiposity index (BAI), derived from anthropometric, and biochemical measures, have gained importance as a measure of obesity. However, unlike other common indices like body mass index, and waist circumference, the genetic predisposition of VAI, and BAI under-examined. METHODS: 2265 sib-pairs from Indian Migration Study were used for examining the association of genetic variants from the Cardio-Metabochip array with VAI, and BAI. Mixed linear regression models were run, and all inferences were based on the within-sib component of the Fulker's association models. Gene-environment/lifestyle interaction analyses were also undertaken. RESULTS: rs6659428 at LOC400796 | SEC16B (ß = 0.26, SE = 0.05), and rs7611535 at DRD3 | LOC645180 (ß = 0.18, SE = 0.04) were associated with VAI at suggestive significance value of <8.21 × 10-6. For BAI, rs73300702 at JAZF1-AS1 (ß = 0.27, SE = 0.06), was the top hit at p value < 8.21 × 10-6. Further, rs6659428 showed marginal effect modification with rural/urban location (ß = 0.26, SE = 0.13, p value = 0.047), and rs73300702 with physical activity (ß = -0.29,SE = 0.14, p value = 0.034). CONCLUSION: We report three novel genetic loci for VAI, and BAI in Indians that are important indicators of adiposity. These findings need to be replicated and validated with larger samples from different ethnicities. Further, functional studies for understanding the biological mechanisms of these adiposity indices need to be undertaken to understand the underlying pathophysiology.

Regeneration of Propriospinal Axons in Rat Transected Spinal Cord Injury through a Growth-Promoting Pathway Constructed by Schwann Cells Overexpressing GDNF.

Unsuccessful axonal regeneration in transected spinal cord injury (SCI) is mainly attributed to shortage of growth factors, inhibitory glial scar, and low intrinsic regenerating capacity of severely injured neurons. Previously, we constructed an axonal growth permissive pathway in a thoracic hemisected injury by transplantation of Schwann cells overexpressing glial-cell-derived neurotrophic factor (SCs-GDNF) into the lesion gap as well as the caudal cord and proved that this novel permissive bridge promoted the regeneration of descending propriospinal tract (dPST) axons across and beyond the lesion. In the current study, we subjected rats to complete thoracic (T11) spinal cord transections and examined whether these combinatorial treatments can support dPST axons' regeneration beyond the transected injury. The results indicated that GDNF significantly improved graft-host interface by promoting integration between SCs and astrocytes, especially the migration of reactive astrocyte into SCs-GDNF territory. The glial response in the caudal graft area has been significantly attenuated. The astrocytes inside the grafted area were morphologically characterized by elongated and slim process and bipolar orientation accompanied by dramatically reduced expression of glial fibrillary acidic protein. Tremendous dPST axons have been found to regenerate across the lesion and back to the caudal spinal cord which were otherwise difficult to see in control groups. The caudal synaptic connections were formed, and regenerated axons were remyelinated. The hindlimb locomotor function has been improved.

Implications of the genomic revolution for education research and policy.

Research at the intersection of social science and genomics, 'sociogenomics', is transforming our understanding of the interplay between genomics, individual outcomes and society. It has interesting and maybe unexpected implications for education research and policy. Here we review the growing sociogenomics literature and discuss its implications for educational researchers and policymakers. We cover key concepts and methods in genomic research into educational outcomes, how genomic data can be used to investigate social or environmental effects, the methodological strengths and limitations of genomic data relative to other observational social data, the role of intergenerational transmission and potential policy implications. The increasing availability of genomic data in studies can produce a wealth of new evidence for education research. This may provide opportunities for disentangling the environmental and genomic factors that influence educational outcomes and identifying potential mechanisms for intervention.

Childhood adiposity underlies numerous adult brain traits commonly attributed to midlife obesity.

Obese adults are often reported to have smaller brain volumes than their non-obese peers. Whether this represents evidence of accelerations in obesity-driven atrophy or is instead a legacy of developmental differences established earlier in the lifespan remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate whether early-life differences in adiposity explain differences in numerous adult brain traits commonly attributed to mid-life obesity. We utilised a two-sample lifecourse Mendelian randomization study in 37,501 adults recruited to UK Biobank (UKB) imaging centers from 2014, with secondary analyses in 6,996 children assessed in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ABCD) recruited from 2018. Exposures were genetic variants for childhood (266 variants) and adult (470 variants) adiposity derived from a GWAS of 407,741 UKB participants. Primary outcomes were adult total brain volume; grey matter volume, thickness, and surface area; white matter volume and hyperintensities; and hippocampus, amygdala, and thalamus volumes at mean age 55 in UKB. Secondary outcomes were equivalent childhood measures collected at mean age 10 in ABCD. In UKB, individuals who were genetically-predicted to have had higher levels of adiposity in childhood were found to have multiple smaller adult brain volumes relative to intracranial volume (e.g. z-score difference in normalised brain volume per category increase in adiposity [95%CI] = -0.20 [-0.28, -0.12]; p = 4 × 10-6). These effect sizes remained essentially unchanged after accounting for birthweight or current adult obesity in multivariable models, whereas most observed adult effects attenuated towards null (e.g. adult z-score [95%CI] for total volume = 0.06 [-0.05,0.17]; p = 0.3). Observational analyses in ABCD showed a similar pattern of changes already present in those with a high BMI by age 10 (z-score [95%CI] = -0.10 [-0.13, -0.07]; p = 8 × 10-13), with follow-up genetic risk score analyses providing some evidence for a causal effect already at this early age. Sensitivity analyses revealed that many of these effects were likely due to the persistence of larger head sizes established in those who gained excess weight in childhood (childhood z-score [95%CI] for intracranial volume = 0.14 [0.05,0.23]; p = 0.002), rather than smaller brain sizes per se. Our data suggest that persistence of early-life developmental differences across the lifecourse may underlie numerous neuroimaging traits commonly attributed to obesity-related atrophy in later life.

Challenging the current hypothesis that thrombosis is responsible for the post-COVID-19 condition.

People with the post-COVID-19 condition suffer symptoms that persist beyond 12 weeks following acute COVID-19 infection. Fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive dysfunction ("brain fog") are common. Scientists, clinicians, and patients debate the pathophysiology. One pathophysiological hypothesis is that prothrombotic changes associated with acute COVID-19 persist, causing clots that lead to symptoms. This theory, arising from a research team in South Africa and supported by a paper in Nature Medicine, has been widely disseminated on social media and entered the public narrative as a cause of the post-COVID-19 condition. We describe the development of this theory, examine the findings of a Cochrane review that critically appraises the "microclot" beliefs, and critically appraise the influential study relating clotting biomarkers to cognitive deficits. We conclude the inferences for the hypothesis are not based on evidence, unlicensed use of antithrombotic medication is not justified, and apheresis should not be considered outside of a well-designed clinical trial.

Familial confounding or measurement error? How to interpret findings from sibling and co-twin control studies.

Epidemiological researchers often examine associations between risk factors and health outcomes in non-experimental designs. Observed associations may be causal or confounded by unmeasured factors. Sibling and co-twin control studies account for familial confounding by comparing exposure levels among siblings (or twins). If the exposure-outcome association is causal, the siblings should also differ regarding the outcome. However, such studies may sometimes introduce more bias than they alleviate. Measurement error in the exposure may bias results and lead to erroneous conclusions that truly causal exposure-outcome associations are confounded by familial factors. The current study used Monte Carlo simulations to examine bias due to measurement error in sibling control models when the observed exposure-outcome association is truly causal. The results showed that decreasing exposure reliability and increasing sibling-correlations in the exposure led to deflated exposure-outcome associations and inflated associations between the family mean of the exposure and the outcome. The risk of falsely concluding that causal associations were confounded was high in many situations. For example, when exposure reliability was 0.7 and the observed sibling-correlation was r = 0.4, about 30-90% of the samples (n = 2,000) provided results supporting a false conclusion of confounding, depending on how p-values were interpreted as evidence for a family effect on the outcome. The current results have practical importance for epidemiological researchers conducting or reviewing sibling and co-twin control studies and may improve our understanding of observed associations between risk factors and health outcomes. We have developed an app (SibSim) providing simulations of many situations not presented in this paper.

Barriers and facilitators to vascular access point-of-care ultrasound in haemodialysis: An international survey of haemodialysis clinicians.

BACKGROUND: Utilising point-of-care ultrasound for assessment and cannulation of vascular access in people receiving haemodialysis has shown positive clinical results. Nonetheless, there is variation in how renal health care professionals worldwide embrace this method, and there's a lack of research on the factors that promote or hinder its adoption. OBJECTIVES: To explore regional differences, and barriers and facilitators, to the use of point-of-care ultrasound for assessment and cannulation of vascular access in haemodialysis. DESIGN: Exploratory descriptive cross-sectional web-based survey. PARTICIPANTS: Healthcare clinicians working in haemodialysis responsible for cannulation of arteriovenous fistula or grafts. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 645 health care clinicians from 38 countries. 75% to 93% of respondents from Australia/New Zealand, Canada, Europe and United Kingdom/Ireland reported access to ultrasound, compared to 26% (n = 43/167) from the United States respondent's reported lower levels of ultrasound training than other regions. Facilitators for using ultrasound were: the availability of ultrasound training (87%, n = 558), to reduce miscannulations (76%, n = 255/336) and to improve patient outcomes (73%, n = 246/336). Point-of-care ultrasound barriers were lack of access to ultrasound education (82%, n = 196/239), lack of ultrasound machines (33%, n = 212/645) or believing that ultrasound was someone else's role (38%, n = 29/86). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed national and regional differences related to haemodialysis point-of-care ultrasound. Understanding the regions requiring more education and implementation of ultrasound and what motivates staff, or deters from using ultrasound, is crucial for effectiveness of future implementation and workplace change initiatives.

Early Ultrasound Surveillance of Newly-Created Hemodialysis Arteriovenous Fistula.

Introduction: We assess if ultrasound surveillance of newly-created arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) can predict nonmaturation sufficiently reliably to justify randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluation of ultrasound-directed salvage intervention. Methods: Consenting adults underwent blinded fortnightly ultrasound scanning of their AVF after creation, with scan characteristics that predicted AVF nonmaturation identified by logistic regression modeling. Results: Of 333 AVFs created, 65.8% matured by 10 weeks. Serial scanning revealed that maturation occurred rapidly, whereas consistently lower fistula flow rates and venous diameters were observed in those that did not mature. Wrist and elbow AVF nonmaturation could be optimally modeled from week 4 ultrasound parameters alone, but with only moderate positive predictive values (PPVs) (wrist, 60.6% [95% confidence interval, CI: 43.9-77.3]; elbow, 66.7% [48.9-84.4]). Moreover, 40 (70.2%) of the 57 AVFs that thrombosed by week 10 had already failed by the week 4 scan, thus limiting the potential of salvage procedures initiated by that scan's findings to alter overall maturation rates. Modeling of the early ultrasound characteristics could also predict primary patency failure at 6 months; however, that model performed poorly at predicting assisted primary failure (those AVFs that failed despite a salvage attempt), partly because patency of at-risk AVFs was maintained by successful salvage performed without recourse to the early scan data. Conclusion: Early ultrasound surveillance may predict fistula maturation, but is likely, at best, to result in only very modest improvements in fistula patency. Power calculations suggest that an impractically large number of participants (>1700) would be required for formal RCT evaluation.

Role of Inflammation in Depressive and Anxiety Disorders, Affect, and Cognition: Genetic and Non-Genetic Findings in the Lifelines Cohort Study.

Background: Low-grade systemic inflammation is implicated in the pathogenesis of various neuropsychiatric conditions affecting mood and cognition. While much of the evidence concerns depression, large-scale population studies of anxiety, affect, and cognitive function are scarce. Importantly, causality remains unclear. We used complementary non-genetic, genetic risk score (GRS), and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to examine whether inflammatory markers are associated with affect, depressive and anxiety disorders, and cognitive performance in the Lifelines Cohort; and whether associations are likely to be causal. Methods: Using data from up to 55,098 (59% female) individuals from the Dutch Lifelines cohort, we tested the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of C-reactive protein (CRP) with (i) depressive and anxiety disorders; (ii) positive and negative affect scores, and (iii) five cognitive measures assessing attention, psychomotor speed, episodic memory, and executive functioning (figural fluency and working memory). Additionally, we examined the association between inflammatory marker GRSs (CRP, interleukin-6 [IL-6], IL-6 receptor [IL-6R and soluble IL-6R (sIL-6R)], glycoprotein acetyls [GlycA]) on these same outcomes (Nmax=57,946), followed by MR analysis examining evidence of causality of CRP on outcomes (Nmax=23,268). In genetic analyses, all GRSs and outcomes were z-transformed. Results: In non-genetic analyses, higher CRP was associated with diagnosis of any depressive disorder, lower positive and higher negative affect scores, and worse performance on tests of figural fluency, attention, and psychomotor speed after adjusting for potential confounders, although the magnitude of these associations was small. In genetic analyses, CRPGRS was associated with any anxiety disorder (ß=0.002, p=0.037, N=57,047) whereas GlycAGRS was associated with major depressive disorder (ß=0.001, p=0.036; N=57,047). Both CRPGRS (ß=0.006, p=0.035, N=57,946) and GlycAGRS (ß=0.006, p=0.049; N=57,946) were associated with higher negative affect score. Inflammatory marker GRSs were not associated with cognitive performance, except sIL-6RGRS which was associated with poorer memory performance (ß=-0.009, p=0.018, N=36,783). Further examination of the CRP-anxiety association using MR provided some weak evidence of causality (ß=0.12; p=0.054). Conclusions: Genetic and non-genetic analyses provide consistent evidence for an association between CRP and negative affect. Genetic analyses suggest that IL-6 signaling could be relevant for memory, and that the association between CRP and anxiety disorders could be causal. These results suggest that dysregulated immune physiology may impact a broad range of trans-diagnostic affective symptoms. However, given the small effect sizes and multiple tests conducted, future studies are required to investigate whether effects are moderated by sub-groups and whether these findings replicate in other cohorts.

Mammographic density mediates the protective effect of early-life body size on breast cancer risk.

The unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk may be mediated via mammographic density (MD). Here, we investigate a complex relationship between adiposity in childhood and adulthood, puberty onset, MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)), and their effects on breast cancer. We use Mendelian randomization (MR) and multivariable MR to estimate the total and direct effects of adiposity and age at menarche on MD phenotypes. Childhood adiposity has a decreasing effect on DA, while adulthood adiposity increases NDA. Later menarche increases DA/PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect is attenuated. Next, we examine the effect of MD on breast cancer risk. DA/PD have a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD SNPs estimates are heterogeneous, and additional analyses suggest that different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, we evaluate the role of MD in the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer. Mediation MR analysis shows that 56% (95% CIs [32%-79%]) of this effect is mediated via DA. Our finding suggests that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, subsequently reducing breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is important for identifying potential intervention targets.

PTEN inhibition promotes robust growth of bulbospinal respiratory axons and partial recovery of diaphragm function in a chronic model of cervical contusion spinal cord injury.

High spinal cord injury (SCI) leads to persistent and debilitating compromise in respiratory function. Cervical SCI not only causes the death of phrenic motor neurons (PhMNs) that innervate the diaphragm, but also damages descending respiratory pathways originating in the rostral ventral respiratory group (rVRG) located in the brainstem, resulting in denervation and consequent silencing of spared PhMNs located caudal to injury. It is imperative to determine whether interventions targeting rVRG axon growth and respiratory neural circuit reconnection are efficacious in chronic cervical contusion SCI, given that the vast majority of individuals are chronically-injured and most cases of SCI involve contusion-type damage to the cervical region. We therefore employed a rat model of chronic cervical hemicontusion to test therapeutic manipulations aimed at reconstructing damaged rVRG-PhMN-diaphragm circuitry to achieve recovery of respiratory function. At a chronic time point post-injury, we systemically administered: an antagonist peptide directed against phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN), a central inhibitor of neuron-intrinsic axon growth potential; an antagonist peptide directed against receptor-type protein tyrosine phosphatase sigma (PTPσ), another important negative regulator of axon growth capacity; or a combination of these two peptides. PTEN antagonist peptide (PAP4) promoted partial recovery of diaphragm motor activity out to nine months post-injury (though this effect depended on the anesthetic regimen used during recording), while PTPσ peptide did not impact diaphragm function after cervical SCI. Furthermore, PAP4 promoted robust growth of descending bulbospinal rVRG axons caudal to the injury within the denervated portion of the PhMN pool, while PTPσ peptide did not affect rVRG axon growth at this location that is critical to control of diaphragmatic respiratory function. In conclusion, we find that, when PTEN inhibition is targeted at a chronic time point following cervical contusion, our non-invasive PAP4 strategy can successfully promote significant regrowth of damaged respiratory neural circuitry and also partial recovery of diaphragm motor function.

Doppler ultrasound surveillance of recently formed haemodialysis arteriovenous fistula: the SONAR observational cohort study.

Background: Arteriovenous fistulas are considered the best option for haemodialysis provision, but as many as 30% fail to mature or suffer early failure. Objective: To assess the feasibility of performing a randomised controlled trial that examines whether, by informing early and effective salvage intervention of fistulas that would otherwise fail, Doppler ultrasound surveillance of developing arteriovenous fistulas improves longer-term arteriovenous fistula patency. Design: A prospective multicentre observational cohort study (the 'SONAR' study). Setting: Seventeen haemodialysis centres in the UK. Participants: Consenting adults with end-stage renal disease who were scheduled to have an arteriovenous fistula created. Intervention: Participants underwent Doppler ultrasound surveillance of their arteriovenous fistulas at 2, 4, 6 and 10 weeks after creation, with clinical teams blinded to the ultrasound surveillance findings. Main outcome measures: Fistula maturation at week 10 defined according to ultrasound surveillance parameters of representative venous diameter and blood flow (wrist arteriovenous fistulas: ≥ 4 mm and > 400 ml/minute; elbow arteriovenous fistulas: ≥ 5 mm and > 500 ml/minute). Mixed multivariable logistic regression modelling of the early ultrasound scan data was used to predict arteriovenous fistula non-maturation by 10 weeks and fistula failure at 6 months. Results: A total of 333 arteriovenous fistulas were created during the study window (47.7% wrist, 52.3% elbow). By 2 weeks, 37 (11.1%) arteriovenous fistulas had failed (thrombosed), but by 10 weeks, 219 of 333 (65.8%) of created arteriovenous fistulas had reached maturity (60.4% wrist, 67.2% elbow). Persistently lower flow rates and venous diameters were observed in those fistulas that did not mature. Models for arteriovenous fistulas' non-maturation could be optimally constructed using the week 4 scan data, with fistula venous diameter and flow rate the most significant variables in explaining wrist fistula maturity failure (positive predictive value 60.6%, 95% confidence interval 43.9% to 77.3%), whereas resistance index and flow rate were most significant for elbow arteriovenous fistulas (positive predictive value 66.7%, 95% confidence interval 48.9% to 84.4%). In contrast to non-maturation, both models predicted fistula maturation much more reliably [negative predictive values of 95.4% (95% confidence interval 91.0% to 99.8%) and 95.6% (95% confidence interval 91.8% to 99.4%) for wrist and elbow, respectively]. Additional follow-up and modelling on a subset (n = 192) of the original SONAR cohort (the SONAR-12M study) revealed the rates of primary, assisted primary and secondary patency arteriovenous fistulas at 6 months were 76.5, 80.7 and 83.3, respectively. Fistula vein size, flow rate and resistance index could identify primary patency failure at 6 months, with similar predictive power as for 10-week arteriovenous fistula maturity failure, but with wide confidence intervals for wrist (positive predictive value 72.7%, 95% confidence interval 46.4% to 99.0%) and elbow (positive predictive value 57.1%, 95% confidence interval 20.5% to 93.8%). These models, moreover, performed poorly at identifying assisted primary and secondary patency failure, likely because a subset of those arteriovenous fistulas identified on ultrasound surveillance as at risk underwent subsequent successful salvage intervention without recourse to early ultrasound data. Conclusions: Although early ultrasound can predict fistula maturation and longer-term patency very effectively, it was only moderately good at identifying those fistulas likely to remain immature or to fail within 6 months. Allied to the better- than-expected fistula patency rates achieved (that are further improved by successful salvage), we estimate that a randomised controlled trial comparing early ultrasound-guided intervention against standard care would require at least 1300 fistulas and would achieve only minimal patient benefit. Trial Registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN36033877 and ISRCTN17399438. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135572) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 24. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

For people with advanced kidney disease, haemodialysis is best provided by an 'arteriovenous fistula', which is created surgically by joining a vein onto an artery at the wrist or elbow. However, these take about 2 months to develop fully ('mature'), and as many as 3 out of 10 fail to do so. We asked whether we could use early ultrasound scanning of the fistula to identify those that are unlikely to mature. This would allow us to decide whether it would be practical to run a large, randomised trial to find out if using early ultrasound allows us to 'rescue' fistulas that would otherwise fail. We invited adults to undergo serial ultrasound scanning of their fistula in the first few weeks after it was created. We then analysed whether we could use the data from the early scans to identify those fistulas that were not going to mature by week 10. Of the 333 fistulas that were created, about two-thirds reached maturity by week 10. We found that an ultrasound scan 4 weeks after fistula creation could reliably identify those fistulas that were going to mature. However, of those fistulas predicted to fail, about one-third did eventually mature without further intervention, and even without knowing what the early scans showed, another third were successfully rescued by surgery or X-ray-guided treatment at a later stage. Performing an early ultrasound scan on a fistula can provide reassurance that it will mature and deliver trouble-free dialysis. However, because scans are poor at identifying fistulas that are unlikely to mature, we would not recommend their use to justify early surgery or X-ray-guided treatment in the expectation that this will improve outcomes.

Non-linear Mendelian randomization: detection of biases using negative controls with a focus on BMI, Vitamin D and LDL cholesterol.

Mendelian randomisation (MR) is an established technique in epidemiological investigation, using the principle of random allocation of genetic variants at conception to estimate the causal linear effect of an exposure on an outcome. Extensions to this technique include non-linear approaches that allow for differential effects of the exposure on the outcome depending on the level of the exposure. A widely used non-linear method is the residual approach, which estimates the causal effect within different strata of the non-genetically predicted exposure (i.e. the "residual" exposure). These "local" causal estimates are then used to make inferences about non-linear effects. Recent work has identified that this method can lead to estimates that are seriously biased, and a new method-the doubly-ranked method-has been introduced as a possibly more robust approach. In this paper, we perform negative control outcome analyses in the MR context. These are analyses with outcomes onto which the exposure should have no predicted causal effect. Using both methods we find clearly biased estimates in certain situations. We additionally examined a situation for which there are robust randomised controlled trial estimates of effects-that of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction onto myocardial infarction, where randomised trials have provided strong evidence of the shape of the relationship. The doubly-ranked method did not identify the same shape as the trial data, and for LDL-C and other lipids they generated some highly implausible findings. Therefore, we suggest there should be extensive simulation and empirical methodological examination of performance of both methods for NLMR under different conditions before further use of these methods. In the interim, use of NLMR methods needs justification, and a number of sanity checks (such as analysis of negative and positive control outcomes, sensitivity analyses excluding removal of strata at the extremes of the distribution, examination of biological plausibility and triangulation of results) should be performed.

Telemedicine for sustainable postoperative follow-up: a prospective pilot study evaluating the hybrid life-cycle assessment approach to carbon footprint analysis.

Introduction: Surgical site infections (SSI) are the most common healthcare-associated infections; however, access to healthcare services, lack of patient awareness of signs, and inadequate wound surveillance can limit timely diagnosis. Telemedicine as a method for remote postoperative follow-up has been shown to improve healthcare efficiency without compromising clinical outcomes. Furthermore, telemedicine would reduce the carbon footprint of the National Health Service (NHS) through minimising patient travel, a significant contributor of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions. Adopting innovative approaches, such as telemedicine, could aid in the NHS Net-Zero target by 2045. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility and sustainability of telemedicine postoperative follow-up for remote diagnosis of SSI. Methods: Patients who underwent a lower limb vascular procedure were reviewed remotely at 30 days following the surgery, with a combined outcome measure (photographs and Bluebelle Wound Healing Questionnaire). A hybrid life-cycle assessment approach to carbon footprint analysis was used. The kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent (kgCO2e) associated with remote methods were mapped prospectively. A simple outpatient clinic review, i.e., no further investigations or management required, was modelled for comparison. The Department of Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) conversion factors plus healthcare specific sources were used to ascertain kgCO2e. Patient postcodes were applied to conversion factors based upon mode of travel to calculate kgCO2e for patient travel. Total and median (interquartile range) carbon emissions saved were presented for both patients with and without SSI. Results: Altogether 31 patients (M:F 2.4, ±11.7 years) were included. The median return distance for patient travel was 42.5 (7.2-58.7) km. Median reduction in emissions using remote follow-up was 41.2 (24.5-80.3) kgCO2e per patient (P < 0.001). The carbon offsetting value of remote follow-up is planting one tree for every 6.9 patients. Total carbon footprint of face-to-face follow-up was 2,895.3 kgCO2e, compared with 1,301.3 kgCO2e when using a remote-first approach (P < 0.001). Carbon emissions due to participants without SSI were 700.2 kgCO2e by the clinical method and 28.8 kgCO2e from the remote follow-up. Discussion: This model shows that the hybrid life-cycle assessment approach is achievable and reproducible. Implementation of an asynchronous digital follow-up model is effective in substantially reducing the carbon footprint of a tertiary vascular surgical centre. Further work is needed to corroborate these findings on a larger scale, quantify the impact of telemedicine on patient's quality of life, and incorporate kgCO2e into the cost analysis of potential SSI monitoring strategies.

Mendelian Randomization analysis of the causal effect of cigarette smoking on hospital costs.

INTRODUCTION: Knowledge of the impact of smoking on healthcare costs is important for establishing the external effects of smoking and for evaluating policies intended to modify this behavior. Conventional analysis of this association is difficult because of omitted variable bias, reverse causality, and measurement error. METHODS: We approached these challenges using a Mendelian Randomization study design; genetic variants associated with smoking behaviors were used in instrumental variables models with inpatient hospital costs (calculated from electronic health records) as the outcome. We undertook genome wide association studies to identify genetic variants associated with smoking initiation and a composite smoking index (reflecting cumulative health impacts of smoking) on up to 300,045 individuals (mean age: 57 years at baseline, range 39 to 72 years) in the UK Biobank. We followed individuals up for a mean of six years. RESULTS: Genetic liability to initiate smoking (ever versus never smoking) was estimated to increase mean per-patient annual inpatient hospital costs by £477 (95% confidence interval (CI): £187 to £766). A one-unit change in genetic liability to the composite smoking index (range: 0-4.0) increased inpatient hospital costs by £204 (95% CI: £105 to £303) per unit increase in this index. There was some evidence that the composite smoking index causal models violated the instrumental variable assumptions, and all Mendelian Randomization models were estimated with considerable uncertainty. Models conditioning on risk tolerance were not robust to weak instrument bias. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings have implications for the potential cost-effectiveness of smoking interventions. IMPLICATIONS: We report the first Mendelian Randomization analysis of the causal effect of smoking on healthcare costs. Using two distinct smoking phenotypes, we identified substantial impacts of smoking on inpatient hospital costs, although the causal models were associated with considerable uncertainty. These results could be used alongside other evidence on the impact of smoking to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anti-smoking interventions and to understand the scale of externalities associated with this behaviour.