Lessons from the historical dynamics of environmental law enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon.

Here, we analyze critical changes in environmental law enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2020. Based on a dataset of law enforcement indicators, we discuss how these changes explain recent Amazon deforestation dynamics. Our analysis also covers changes in the legal prosecution process and documents a militarization of enforcement between 2018 and 2022. From 2004 to 2018, 43.6 thousand land-use embargoes and 84.3 thousand fines were issued, targeting 3.3 million ha of land, and totaling USD 9.3 billion in penalties. Nevertheless, enforcement relaxed and became spatially more limited, signaling an increasing lack of commitment by the State to enforcing the law. The number of embargoes and asset confiscations dropped by 59% and 55% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. These changes were accompanied by a marked increase in enforcement expenditure, suggesting a massive efficiency loss. More importantly, the creation of so-called conciliation hearings and the centralization of legal processes in 2019 reduced the number of actual judgments and fines collected by 85% and decreased the ratio between lawsuits resulting in paid fines over filed ones from 17 to 5%. As Brazil gears up to crack-down on illegal deforestation once again, our assessment suggests urgent entry points for policy action.

How to balance land demand conflicts to guarantee sustainable land development.

Severe arable land loss and ecological problems raise attention to protect/develop land for food and ecology demand. Spatial conflict appears in front of multidemand for urbanization, food, and ecology. Our study took China as an example and explicitly outlined spatial preference of urbanization, food, and ecology. From the aspect of land amount, there are enough lands to support multidemand with a surplus of agriculture land of 45.5 × 106 ha. However, spatial conflict widely appears among the multidemands. We tested the impacts of different priorities on urban pattern, crop yield, and ecology and found the priority of food > ecology > urbanization gave the best outcome. Our results verified the importance of including priority of land multidemand to avoid confusion and increase efficiency in the implementation of land policies.

A near real-time web-system for predicting fire spread across the Cerrado biome.

Wildfires are aggravating due to climate change. Public policies need territorial intelligence to prevent and promptly fight fires, especially in vast regions like Brazil. To this end, we have developed a fire-spread prediction system for the Brazilian Cerrado, the biome most affected by wildfires in South America. The system automatically uploads hot pixels and satellite data to calculate maps of fuels loads, vegetation moisture, and probability of burning for simulating fire spread thrice a day for the entire Cerrado at 25 ha and for nine conservation units at 0.04 ha spatial resolution. In both versions, the model attains 65-89% of spatial match. Model results together with ancillary data, e.g., historical burned areas and annual CO2 emissions from fires, are available on an interactive web-platform that serves as a tool for fire prevention and fight, particularly in the selected conservation units where the platform is being used for daily operations.

Multiple facets of biodiversity are threatened by mining-induced land-use change in the Brazilian Amazon

Aim Mining is increasingly pressuring areas of critical importance for biodiversity conservation, such as the Brazilian Amazon. Biodiversity data are limited in the tropics, restricting the scope for risks to be appropriately estimated before mineral licensing decisions are made. As the distributions and range sizes of other taxa differ markedly from those of vertebrates—the common proxy for analysis of risk to biodiversity from mining—whether mining threatens lesser-studied taxonomic groups differentially at a regional scale is unclear. Location Brazilian Amazon. Methods We assess risks to several facets of biodiversity from industrial mining by comparing mining areas (within 70 km of an active mining lease) and areas unaffected by mining, employing species richness, species endemism, phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism metrics calculated for angiosperms, arthropods and vertebrates. Results Mining areas contained higher densities of species occurrence records than the unaffected landscape, and we accounted for this sampling bias in our analyses. None of the four biodiversity metrics differed between mining and nonmining areas for vertebrates. For arthropods, species endemism was greater in mined areas. Mined areas also had greater angiosperm species richness, phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism, although less species endemism than unmined areas. Main Conclusions Unlike for vertebrates, facets of angiosperm and arthropod diversity are relatively higher in areas of mining activity, underscoring the need to consider multiple taxonomic groups and biodiversity facets when assessing risk and evaluating management options for mining threats. Particularly concerning is the proximity of mining to areas supporting deep evolutionary history, which may be impossible to recover or replace. As pressures to expand mining in the Amazon grow, impact assessments with broader taxonomic reach and metric focus will be vital to conserving biodiversity in mining regions.

Cerrado deforestation threatens regional climate and water availability for agriculture and ecosystems.

The Brazilian Cerrado is one of the most biodiverse savannas in the world, yet 46% of its original cover has been cleared to make way for crops and pastures. These extensive land-use transitions (LUTs) are expected to influence regional climate by reducing evapotranspiration (ET), increasing land surface temperature (LST), and ultimately reducing precipitation. Here, we quantify the impacts of LUTs on ET and LST in the Cerrado by combining MODIS satellite data with annual land use and land cover maps from 2006 to 2019. We performed regression analyses to quantify the effects of six common LUTs on ET and LST across the entire gradient of Cerrado landscapes. Results indicate that clearing forests for cropland or pasture increased average LST by ~3.5°C and reduced mean annual ET by 44% and 39%, respectively. Transitions from woody savannas to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 1.9°C and reduced mean annual ET by 27% and 21%, respectively. Converting native grasslands to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 0.9 and 0.6°C, respectively. Conversely, grassland-to-pasture transitions increased mean annual ET by 15%. To date, land changes have caused a 10% reduction in water recycled to the atmosphere annually and a 0.9°C increase in average LST across the biome, compared to the historic baseline under native vegetation. Global climate changes from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will only exacerbate these effects. Considering potential future scenarios, we found that abandoning deforestation control policies or allowing legal deforestation to continue (at least 28.4 Mha) would further reduce yearly ET (by -9% and -3%, respectively) and increase average LST (by +0.7 and +0.3°C, respectively) by 2050. In contrast, policies encouraging zero deforestation and restoration of the 5.2 Mha of illegally deforested areas would partially offset the warming and drying impacts of land-use change.

O Cerrado brasileiro é uma das savanas mais biodiversas do mundo. Apesar disso, 46% da sua cobertura original foi desmatada para dar lugar a cultivos agrícolas e pastos. Estas extensas transições de uso do solo (LUT) têm o potencial de influenciar o clima regional, reduzindo a evapotranspiração (ET), aumentando a temperatura da superfície terrestre (LST) e por fim reduzindo a precipitação. O objetivo deste estudo foi quantificar os impactos de LUTs sobre ET e LST no Cerrado, combinando dados do satélite MODIS com mapas anuais de uso e cobertura do solo de 2006-2019. Foram realizadas análises de regressão para quantificar os efeitos de seis LUTs usuais sobre ET e LST, ao longo de todo o gradiente de paisagens do Cerrado. Os resultados indicaram que a retirada de florestas para dar lugar à agricultura ou pastagem aumentou a LST média em ~3.5°C e reduziu a ET média anual em 44% e 39%, respectivamente. Transições de formações savânicas para agricultura ou pastagem aumentaram a LST média em 1.9°C e reduziram a ET média anual em 27% e 21%, respectivamente. A conversão de campos nativos para agricultura ou pastagem aumentou a LST média em 0.9 e 0.6°C, respectivamente. Em contrapartida, transições de formações campestres nativas para pastagens aumentaram a ET média anual em 15%. Até o momento, as mudanças de uso do solo causaram redução de 10% da água reciclada para a atmosfera anualmente e aumento de 0.9°C da LST média ao longo do bioma, em comparação com a linha de base histórica sob vegetação nativa. As mudanças climáticas globais decorrentes do aumento das concentrações atmosféricas de gases do efeito estufa irão exacerbar esses efeitos. Considerando potenciais cenários futuros, observou-se que o abandono das políticas de controle do desmatamento ou o avanço do desmatamento legal (ao menos 28.4 Mha) reduziriam a ET anual (em −9% e −3%, respectivamente) e aumentariam a LST média (em +0.7 e +0.3ºC, respectivamente) até 2050. Por outro lado, políticas que promovam desmatamento zero e restauração dos 5.2 Mha de áreas ilegalmente desmatadas compensariam parte dos impactos de aquecimento e seca causados por alterações de uso do solo.

Brazil's sugarcane embitters the EU-Mercosur trade talks.

The Brazilian government's decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil's sugar sector, hindering the ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Meanwhile, in the EU, certain conventional biofuels face stricter controls, whilst uncertainty surrounding the commercialisation of more sustainable advanced-biofuels renders bioethanol as a short- to medium-term fix. This paper examines Brazil's land-use changes and associated greenhouse gas emissions arising from an EU driven ethanol import policy and projections for other 13 biocommodities. Results suggest that Brazil's sugarcane could satisfy growing ethanol demand and comply with EU environmental criteria, since almost all sugarcane expansion is expected to occur on long-established pasturelands in the South and Midwest. However, expansion of sugarcane is also driven by competition for viable lands with other relevant commodities, mainly soy and beef. As a result, deforestation trends in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes linked to soy and beef production could jeopardize Brazil's contribution to the Paris agreement with an additional 1 ± 0.3 billion CO2eq tonnes above its First NDC target by 2030. Trade talks with a narrow focus on a single commodity could thus risk unsustainable outcomes, calling for systemic sustainability benchmarks, should the deal be ratified.

Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon.

It has been suggested that rainfall in the Amazon decreases if forest loss exceeds some threshold, but the specific value of this threshold remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall at different geographical scales across the Southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA). We also assess impacts of deforestation policy scenarios on the region's agriculture. Forest loss of up to 55-60% within 28 km grid cells enhances rainfall, but further deforestation reduces rainfall precipitously. This threshold is lower at larger scales (45-50% at 56 km and 25-30% at 112 km grid cells), while rainfall decreases linearly within 224 km grid cells. Widespread deforestation results in a hydrological and economic negative-sum game, because lower rainfall and agricultural productivity at larger scales outdo local gains. Under a weak governance scenario, SBA may lose 56% of its forests by 2050. Reducing deforestation prevents agricultural losses in SBA up to US$ 1 billion annually.

Will farmers seek environmental regularization in the Amazon and how? Insights from the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) questionnaires.

The future availability and quality of natural resources essential to life such as ecosystem services and biodiversity depend on the conservation and restoration of native vegetation. The Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) requires farmers to conserve a minimum percentage of native vegetation within their properties as Legal Reserves (LR) as well as riparian forests and hilltops as Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs). To monitor the conservation and facilitate the compliance of these areas, the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and the Environmental Regularization Program (PRA) were created. However, so far, little is known about farmers' interest in joining the PRA and the actions they intend to take to correct their past illegal deforestation. This article explores a unique dataset comprising of the individual answers of 97 thousand farmers in the states of Pará and Mato Grosso given to the Brazilian Forest Service in the process of joining at the national rural environmental registry system. We found that the adherence to the PRA is positively correlated with recognition of the LR deficit and the size of the rural property. Also medium and large landowners and crop producers tend to seek compliance by taking actions outside the farm (compensation), while small farmers and squatters are more likely to act inside their own areas (restoration). Understanding farmers' interests and options for LR compliance can contribute for the formulation of more effective implementation strategies for PRA and NVPL.

Local conditions and policy design determine whether ecological compensation can achieve No Net Loss goals.

Many nations use ecological compensation policies to address negative impacts of development projects and achieve No Net Loss (NNL) of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, failures are widely reported. We use spatial simulation models to quantify potential net impacts of alternative compensation policies on biodiversity (indicated by native vegetation) and two ecosystem services (carbon storage, sediment retention) across four case studies (in Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mozambique). No policy achieves NNL of biodiversity in any case study. Two factors limit their potential success: the land available for compensation (existing vegetation to protect or cleared land to restore), and expected counterfactual biodiversity losses (unregulated vegetation clearing). Compensation also fails to slow regional biodiversity declines because policies regulate only a subset of sectors, and expanding policy scope requires more land than is available for compensation activities. Avoidance of impacts remains essential in achieving NNL goals, particularly once opportunities for compensation are exhausted.

Proposed Legislation to Mine Brazil's Indigenous Lands Will Threaten Amazon Forests and Their Valuable Ecosystem Services.

A recent proposal to regulate mining within Indigenous Lands (ILs) threatens people and the unique ecosystems of Brazil's Legal Amazon. Here, we show that this new policy could eventually affect more than 863,000 km2 of tropical forests-20% more than under current policies-assuming all known mineral deposits will be developed and impacts of mining on forests extend 70 km from lease boundaries. Not only are these forests home to some of the world's most culturally diverse communities, they also provide at least US $5 billion each year to the global economy, producing food, mitigating carbon emissions, and regulating climate for agriculture and energy production. It is unclear whether new mines within ILs will be required to compensate for their direct and indirect environmental and social impacts but failing to do so will have considerable environmental and social consequences.

BioDinamica: a toolkit for analyses of biodiversity and biogeography on the Dinamica-EGO modelling platform.

Biogeography and macroecology are at the heart of the debate on ecology and evolution. We have developed the BioDinamica package, a suite of user-friendly graphical programs for analysing spatial patterns of biogeography and macroecology. BioDinamica includes analyses of beta-diversity, species richness, endemicity, phylo-diversity, species distribution models, predictive models of biodiversity patterns, and several tools for spatial biodiversity analysis. BioDinamica consists of a sub-library of Dinamica-EGO operators developed by integrating EGO native functions with R scripts. The BioDinamica operators can be assembled to create complex analytical and simulation models through the EGO graphical programming interface. In addition, we make available "Wizard" tutorials for end users. BioDinamica can be downloaded free of charge from the Dinamica EGO submodel store. The tools made available in BioDinamica not only facilitate complex biodiversity analyses, they also help develop state-of-the-art spatial models for biogeography and macroecology studies.

Modelling Highly Biodiverse Areas in Brazil.

Traditional conservation techniques for mapping highly biodiverse areas assume there to be satisfactory knowledge about the geographic distribution of biodiversity. There are, however, large gaps in biological sampling and hence knowledge shortfalls. This problem is even more pronounced in the tropics. Indeed, the use of only a few taxonomic groups or environmental surrogates for modelling biodiversity is not viable in mega-diverse countries, such as Brazil. To overcome these limitations, we developed a comprehensive spatial model that includes phylogenetic information and other several biodiversity dimensions aimed at mapping areas with high relevance for biodiversity conservation. Our model applies a genetic algorithm tool for identifying the smallest possible region within a unique biota that contains the most number of species and phylogenetic diversity, as well as the highest endemicity and phylogenetic endemism. The model successfully pinpoints small highly biodiverse areas alongside regions with knowledge shortfalls where further sampling should be conducted. Our results suggest that conservation strategies should consider several taxonomic groups, the multiple dimensions of biodiversity, and associated sampling uncertainties.

Modelling highly biodiverse areas in Brazil

Traditional conservation techniques for mapping highly biodiverse areas assume there to be satisfactory knowledge about the geographic distribution of biodiversity. There are, however, large gaps in biological sampling and hence knowledge shortfalls. This problem is even more pronounced in the tropics. Indeed, the use of only a few taxonomic groups or environmental surrogates for modelling biodiversity is not viable in mega-diverse countries, such as Brazil. To overcome these limitations, we developed a comprehensive spatial model that includes phylogenetic information and other several biodiversity dimensions aimed at mapping areas with high relevance for biodiversity conservation. Our model applies a genetic algorithm tool for identifying the smallest possible region within a unique biota that contains the most number of species and phylogenetic diversity, as well as the highest endemicity and phylogenetic endemism. The model successfully pinpoints small highly biodiverse areas alongside regions with knowledge shortfalls where further sampling should be conducted. Our results suggest that conservation strategies should consider several taxonomic groups, the multiple dimensions of biodiversity, and associated sampling uncertainties.

Modelling highly biodiverse areas in Brazil

Traditional conservation techniques for mapping highly biodiverse areas assume there to be satisfactory knowledge about the geographic distribution of biodiversity. There are, however, large gaps in biological sampling and hence knowledge shortfalls. This problem is even more pronounced in the tropics. Indeed, the use of only a few taxonomic groups or environmental surrogates for modelling biodiversity is not viable in mega-diverse countries, such as Brazil. To overcome these limitations, we developed a comprehensive spatial model that includes phylogenetic information and other several biodiversity dimensions aimed at mapping areas with high relevance for biodiversity conservation. Our model applies a genetic algorithm tool for identifying the smallest possible region within a unique biota that contains the most number of species and phylogenetic diversity, as well as the highest endemicity and phylogenetic endemism. The model successfully pinpoints small highly biodiverse areas alongside regions with knowledge shortfalls where further sampling should be conducted. Our results suggest that conservation strategies should consider several taxonomic groups, the multiple dimensions of biodiversity, and associated sampling uncertainties.

Illegal logging as a disincentive to the establishment of a sustainable forest sector in the Amazon.

Brazil recently began granting timber concessions in public forests to promote sustainable forest use. The effectiveness of this strategy hinges on the design and implementation of the concessions themselves as well as their competitive position within the logging sector as a whole. There is, however, a lack of information on the competitive interaction between legal and illegal logging and its effects on concessions profits. We address this knowledge gap by using a spatially explicit simulation model of the Amazon timber industry to examine the potential impact of illegal logging on timber concessions allocation and profits in a 30-year harvest cycle. In a scenario in which illegal logging takes place outside concessions, including private and public "undesignated" lands, concession harvested area would decrease by 59% due to competition with illegal logging. Moreover, 29 out of 39 National Forests (≈74%) would experience a decrease in harvested area. This "leakage" effect could reduce concession net rents by up to USD 1.3 Billion after 30 years. Federal and State "undesignated" lands, if not adequately protected, could have 40% of their total volume illegally harvested in 30 years. Our results reinforce the need to invest in tackling illegal logging, if the government wants the forest concessions program to be successful.

Publisher Correction: Biodiversity conservation gaps in the Brazilian protected areas.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.

Mining drives extensive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

Mining poses significant and potentially underestimated risks to tropical forests worldwide. In Brazil's Amazon, mining drives deforestation far beyond operational lease boundaries, yet the full extent of these impacts is unknown and thus neglected in environmental licensing. Here we quantify mining-induced deforestation and investigate the aspects of mining operations, which most likely contribute. We find mining significantly increased Amazon forest loss up to 70 km beyond mining lease boundaries, causing 11,670 km2 of deforestation between 2005 and 2015. This extent represents 9% of all Amazon forest loss during this time and 12 times more deforestation than occurred within mining leases alone. Pathways leading to such impacts include mining infrastructure establishment, urban expansion to support a growing workforce, and development of mineral commodity supply chains. Mining-induced deforestation is not unique to Brazil; to mitigate adverse impacts of mining and conserve tropical forests globally, environmental assessments and licensing must considered both on- and off-lease sources of deforestation.

Biodiversity conservation gaps in the Brazilian protected areas.

Although Brazil is a megadiverse country and thus a conservation priority, no study has yet quantified conservation gaps in the Brazilian protected areas (PAs) using extensive empirical data. Here, we evaluate the degree of biodiversity protection and knowledge within all the Brazilian PAs through a gap analysis of vertebrate, arthropod and angiosperm occurrences and phylogenetic data. Our results show that the knowledge on biodiversity in most Brazilian PAs remain scant as 71% of PAs have less than 0.01 species records per km2. Almost 55% of Brazilian species and about 40% of evolutionary lineages are not found in PAs, while most species have less than 30% of their geographic distribution within PAs. Moreover, the current PA network fails to protect the majority of endemic species. Most importantly, these results are similar for all taxonomic groups analysed here. The methods and results of our countrywide assessment are suggested to help design further inventories in order to map and secure the key biodiversity of the Brazilian PAs. In addition, our study illustrates the most common biodiversity knowledge shortfalls in the tropics.