Impact of active case-finding for tuberculosis on case-notifications in Blantyre, Malawi: A community-based cluster-randomised trial (SCALE).

Active case-finding (ACF) for tuberculosis can help find the "missing millions" with undiagnosed tuberculosis. In a cluster-randomised trial, we investigated impact of ACF on case-notifications in Blantyre, Malawi, where ACF has been intensively implemented following 2014 estimates of ~1,000 per 100,000 adults with undiagnosed TB. Following a pre-intervention prevalence survey (May 2019 to March 2020), constrained randomisation allocated neighbourhoods to either door-to-door ACF (sputum microscopy for reported cough >2 weeks) or standard-of-care (SOC). Implementation was interrupted by COVID-19. Cluster-level bacteriologically-confirmed case-notification rate (CNR) ratio within 91 days of ACF was our redefined primary outcome; comparison between arms used Poisson regression with random effects. Secondary outcomes were 91-day CNR ratios comparing all tuberculosis registrations and all non-ACF registrations. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of CNRs in the SOC arm examined prevalence survey impact. (ISRCTN11400592). 72 clusters served by 10 study-supported tuberculosis registration centres were randomised to ACF (261,244 adults, 58,944 person-years follow-up) or SOC (256,713 adults, 52,805 person-years). Of 1,192 ACF participants, 13 (1.09%) were smear-positive. Within 91 days, 113 (42 bacteriologically-confirmed) and 108 (33 bacteriologically-confirmed) tuberculosis patients were identified as ACF or SOC cluster residents, respectively. There was no difference by arm, with adjusted 91-day CNR ratios 1.12 (95% CI: 0.61-2.07) for bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis; 0.93 (95% CI: 0.68-1.28) for all tuberculosis registrations; and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.63-1.16) for non-ACF (routinely) diagnosed. Of 7,905 ACF and 7,992 SOC pre-intervention survey participants, 12 (0.15%) and 17 (0.21%), respectively, had culture/Xpert-confirmed tuberculosis. ITS analysis showed no survey impact on SOC CNRs. Despite residual undiagnosed tuberculosis of 150 per 100,000 population, there was no increase in tuberculosis notifications from this previously successful approach targeting symptomatic disease, likely due to previous TB ACF and rapid declines in TB burden. In such settings, future ACF should focus on targeted outreach and demand creation, alongside optimised facility-based screening. Trial Registration: ISRCTN11400592.

Neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios for adult bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis reveals hotspots of underdiagnosis in Blantyre, Malawi.

Local information is needed to guide targeted interventions for respiratory infections such as tuberculosis (TB). Case notification rates (CNRs) are readily available, but systematically underestimate true disease burden in neighbourhoods with high diagnostic access barriers. We explored a novel approach, adjusting CNRs for under-notification (P:N ratio) using neighbourhood-level predictors of TB prevalence-to-notification ratios. We analysed data from 1) a citywide routine TB surveillance system including geolocation, confirmatory mycobacteriology, and clinical and demographic characteristics of all registering TB patients in Blantyre, Malawi during 2015-19, and 2) an adult TB prevalence survey done in 2019. In the prevalence survey, consenting adults from randomly selected households in 72 neighbourhoods had symptom-plus-chest X-ray screening, confirmed with sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and culture. Bayesian multilevel models were used to estimate adjusted neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios, based on summarised posterior draws from fitted adult bacteriologically-confirmed TB CNRs and prevalence. From 2015-19, adult bacteriologically-confirmed CNRs were 131 (479/371,834), 134 (539/415,226), 114 (519/463,707), 56 (283/517,860) and 46 (258/578,377) per 100,000 adults per annum, and 2019 bacteriologically-confirmed prevalence was 215 (29/13,490) per 100,000 adults. Lower educational achievement by household head and neighbourhood distance to TB clinic was negatively associated with CNRs. The mean neighbourhood P:N ratio was 4.49 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.98-11.91), consistent with underdiagnosis of TB, and was most pronounced in informal peri-urban neighbourhoods. Here we have demonstrated a method for the identification of neighbourhoods with high levels of under-diagnosis of TB without the requirement for a prevalence survey; this is important since prevalence surveys are expensive and logistically challenging. If confirmed, this approach may support more efficient and effective targeting of intensified TB and HIV case-finding interventions aiming to accelerate elimination of urban TB.

Effects of Coronavirus Disease Pandemic on Tuberculosis Notifications, Malawi.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic might affect tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and patient care. We analyzed a citywide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi did not have an official COVID-19 lockdown but closed schools and borders on March 23, 2020. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications in April 2020; notifications recovered to near prepandemic numbers by December 2020. However, 333 fewer cumulative TB notifications were received than anticipated. Women and girls were affected more (30.7% fewer cases) than men and boys (20.9% fewer cases). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closures, inadequate personal protective equipment, and COVID-19 stigma because of similar symptoms to TB were mentioned as reasons for fewer people being diagnosed with TB. Public health measures could benefit control of both TB and COVID-19, but only if TB diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend.