Mental health impacts of COVID-19: A retrospective analysis of dynamic modelling projections for Australia.

Background: In early 2020, we developed a dynamic model to support policy responses aimed at mitigating the adverse mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. As the pandemic has progressed, it has become clear that our initial model forecasts overestimated the impacts of infection control measures (lockdowns, physical distancing, etc.) on suicide, intentional self-harm hospitalisation, and mental health-related emergency department (ED) presentation rates. Methods: Potential explanations for the divergence of our model predictions from observed outcomes were assessed by comparing simulation results for a set of progressively more refined models with data on the prevalence of moderate to very high psychological distress and numbers of suicides, intentional self-harm hospitalisations, and mental health-related ED presentations published after our modelling was released in July 2020. Results: Allowing per capita rates of spontaneous recovery and intentional self-harm to differ between people experiencing moderate to very high psychological distress prior to the pandemic and those developing comparable levels of psychological distress only as a consequence of infection control measures substantially improves the fit of our model to empirical estimates of the prevalence of psychological distress and leads to significantly lower predicted effects of COVID-19 on suicide, intentional self-harm hospitalisation, and mental health-related ED presentation rates. Conclusion: Accommodating the influence of prior mental health on the psychological effects of population-wide social and economic disruption is likely to be critical for accurately forecasting the mental health impacts of future public health crises as they inevitably arise.

Cost-effectiveness of system-level mental health strategies for young people in the Australian Capital Territory: a dynamic simulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Regional mental health planning is a key challenge for decision makers because mental health care is a complex, dynamic system. Economic evaluation using a system dynamics modelling approach presents an opportunity for more sophisticated planning and important evidence on the value of alternative investments. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of eight systems-based interventions targeted at improving the mental health and wellbeing of children, adolescents, and young adults in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). METHODS: We assessed eight interventions for children and young people (aged ≤25 years) with low, moderate, and high-to-very-high psychological distress: technology-enabled integrated care, emergency department-based suicide prevention, crisis response service, family education programme, online parenting programme, school-based suicide prevention programme, trauma service for youths, and multicultural-informed care. We developed a system dynamics model for the ACT through a participatory process and calibrated the model with historical data, including population demographics, the prevalence of psychological distress, and mental health services provision. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with business as usual for cost (AU$) per: quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), suicide death avoided, self-harm related hospital admissions avoided, and mental health-related emergency department presentation, using a 10-year time horizon for health-care and societal perspectives. We investigated uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic sensitivity analysis, including using a 30-year timeframe. FINDINGS: From a societal perspective, increased investment in technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care were expected to improve health outcomes (incremental QALYs 4517 [95% UI -3135 to 14 507] for technology-enabled integrated care; 339 [91 to 661] for family education; 724 [114 to 1149] for the online parenting programme; and 137 [88 to 194] for multicultural-informed care) and reduce costs ($-91·4 million [-382·7 to 100·7]; $-12·8 million [-21·0 to -6·6]; $-3·6 million  [-6·3 to 0·2]; and $-3·1 million [-4·5 to -1·8], respectively) compared with business as usual using a 10-year time horizon. The incremental net monetary benefit for the societal perspective for these four interventions was $452 million (-351 to 1555), $40 million (14 to 74), $61 million (9 to 98), and $14 million (9 to 20), respectively, compared with business as usual, when QALYs were monetised using a willingness to pay of $79 930 per QALY. Synergistic effects are anticipated if these interventions were to be implemented concurrently. The univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a high level of certainty in the results. Although emergency department-based suicide prevention and school-based suicide prevention were not cost effective in the base case (41 QALYs [0 to 48], incremental cost $4·1 million [1·2 to 8·2] for emergency department-based suicide prevention; -234 QALYs [-764 to 12], incremental cost $90·3 million [72·2 to 111·0] for school-based suicide prevention) compared with business as usual, there were scenarios for which these interventions could be considered cost effective. A dedicated trauma service for young people (9 QALYs gained [4 to 16], incremental cost $8·3 million [6·8 to 10·0]) and a crisis response service (-11 QALYs gained [-12 to -10], incremental cost $7·8 million [5·1 to 11·0]) were unlikely to be cost effective in terms of QALYs. INTERPRETATION: Synergistic effects were identified, supporting the combined implementation of technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care. Synergistic effects, emergent outcomes in the form of unintended consequences, the capability to account for service capacity constraints, and ease of use by stakeholders are unique attributes of a system dynamics modelling approach to economic evaluation. FUNDING: BHP Foundation.

Population-level effectiveness of alternative approaches to preventing mental disorders in adolescents and young adults.

Preventive interventions that are effective in reducing the incidence of mental disorders in adolescence and early adulthood may impact substantially on lifetime economic, educational, and health outcomes; however, relatively few studies have examined the capacity of alternative approaches to preventing youth mental disorders (specifically, universal, selective, and indicated prevention) to reduce disorder incidence at a population level. Using a dynamic model of the onset of non-specific, relatively mild symptoms and progression to more severe disease, we show that: (1) indicated preventive interventions, targeting adolescents and young adults experiencing subthreshold symptoms, may often be more effective in reducing mental disorder prevalence than universal interventions delivered to the general population (contrary to the widely accepted view that a 'high risk' prevention strategy, focussing on those individuals with the greatest risk of developing a disorder, will generally be less effective than a whole-population strategy); and (2) the ability of selective preventive interventions (targeting vulnerable, asymptomatic youth) to alter the prevalence of mental disorders is severely restricted by an inverse relationship between the prevalence of significant risk factors for mental illness and the relative risk of developing symptoms.

EMPOWERED trial: protocol for a randomised control trial of digitally supported, highly personalised and measurement-based care to improve functional outcomes in young people with mood disorders.

OBJECTIVES: Many adolescents and young adults with emerging mood disorders do not achieve substantial improvements in education, employment, or social function after receiving standard youth mental health care. We have developed a new model of care referred to as 'highly personalised and measurement-based care' (HP&MBC). HP&MBC involves repeated assessment of multidimensional domains of morbidity to enable continuous and personalised clinical decision-making. Although measurement-based care is common in medical disease management, it is not a standard practice in mental health. This clinical effectiveness trial tests whether HP&MBC, supported by continuous digital feedback, delivers better functional improvements than standard care and digital support. METHOD AND ANALYSIS: This controlled implementation trial is a PROBE study (Prospective, Randomised, Open, Blinded End-point) that comprises a multisite 24-month, assessor-blinded, follow-up study of 1500 individuals aged 15-25 years who present for mental health treatment. Eligible participants will be individually randomised (1:1) to 12 months of HP&MBC or standardised clinical care. The primary outcome measure is social and occupational functioning 12 months after trial entry, assessed by the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale. Clinical and social outcomes for all participants will be monitored for a further 12 months after cessation of active care. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This clinical trial has been reviewed and approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Sydney Local Health District (HREC Approval Number: X22-0042 & 2022/ETH00725, Protocol ID: BMC-YMH-003-2018, protocol version: V.3, 03/08/2022). Research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, presentations at scientific conferences, and to user and advocacy groups. Participant data will be deidentified. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12622000882729.

Patterns of emergency department presentations for a youth mental health cohort: data-linkage cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Primary youth mental health services in Australia have increased access to care for young people, yet the longer-term outcomes and utilisation of other health services among these populations is unclear. AIMS: To describe the emergency department presentation patterns of a help-seeking youth mental health cohort. METHOD: Data linkage was performed to extract Emergency Department Data Collection registry data (i.e. emergency department presentations, pattern of re-presentations) for a transdiagnostic cohort of 7024 youths (aged 12-30 years) who presented to mental health services. Outcome measures were pattern of presentations and reason for presentations (i.e. mental illness; suicidal behaviours and self-harm; alcohol and substance use; accident and injury; physical illness; and other). RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 5372 (76.5%) had at least one emergency department presentation. The presentation rate was lower for males (IRR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.86-0.89) and highest among those aged 18 to 24 (IRR = 1.117, 95% CI 1.086-1.148). Almost one-third (31.12%) had an emergency department presentation that was directly associated with mental illness or substance use, and the most common reasons for presentation were for physical illness and accident or injury. Index visits for mental illness or substance use were associated with a higher rate of re-presentation. CONCLUSIONS: Most young people presenting to primary mental health services also utilised emergency services. The preventable and repeated nature of many presentations suggests that reducing the ongoing secondary risks of mental disorders (i.e. substance misuse, suicidality, physical illness) could substantially improve the mental and physical health outcomes of young people.

Dynamic modelling of the impact of community-based acute mental health services for children and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact of the recently announced 'Safeguards' initiative on mental health-related emergency department presentation rates for children and adolescents (0-17 years). This state-funded initiative aims to establish 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams across New South Wales. METHODS: We estimated the effects of the 'Safeguards' initiative using a state-level dynamic model of child and adolescent acute mental health care. Potential reductions in total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations (i.e. presentations within 3 months of an initial presentation) were assessed via a series of simulation experiments in which we systematically varied the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams and the mean duration of care per patient. RESULTS: Assuming a mean treatment duration of 6 weeks per patient, 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams are projected to reduce total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations over the period 2022-2031 by 15.0% (95% interval, 12.0-18.2%) and 31.7% (26.2-37.8%), respectively. Increasing the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams above 25 has minimal additional impact on projected reductions in numbers of emergency department presentations and re-presentations, provided the mean duration of care is no more than 8 weeks. However, where the mean duration of care is greater than 4 weeks, a decrease in the number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams below 25 reduces the potential effectiveness of the 'Safeguards' initiative significantly. CONCLUSION: Our simulation results indicate that full and timely implementation will be critical if the potentially substantial impact of the 'Safeguards' initiative on demand for hospital-based emergency mental health care is to be realised.

Unemployment and underemployment are causes of suicide.

Epidemiological studies indicate that labor underutilization and suicide are associated, yet it remains unclear whether this association is causal. We applied convergent cross mapping to test for causal effects of unemployment and underemployment on suicidal behavior, using monthly data on labor underutilization and suicide rates in Australia for the period 2004-2016. Our analyses provide evidence that rates of unemployment and underemployment were significant drivers of suicide mortality in Australia over the 13-year study period. Predictive modeling indicates that 9.5% of the ~32,000 suicides reported between 2004 and 2016 resulted directly from labor underutilization, including 1575 suicides attributable to unemployment and 1496 suicides attributable to underemployment. We conclude that economic policies prioritizing full employment should be considered integral to any comprehensive national suicide prevention strategy.

Premature mortality in young people accessing early intervention youth mental healthcare: data-linkage cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding premature mortality risk from suicide and other causes in youth mental health cohorts is essential for delivering effective clinical interventions and secondary prevention strategies. AIMS: To establish premature mortality risk in young people accessing early intervention mental health services and identify predictors of mortality. METHOD: State-wide data registers of emergency departments, hospital admissions and mortality were linked to the Brain and Mind Research Register, a longitudinal cohort of 7081 young people accessing early intervention care, between 2008 and 2020. Outcomes were mortality rates and age-standardised mortality ratios (SMR). Cox regression was used to identify predictors of all-cause mortality and deaths due to suicide or accident. RESULTS: There were 60 deaths (male 63.3%) during the study period, 25 (42%) due to suicide, 19 (32%) from accident or injury and eight (13.3%) where cause was under investigation. All-cause SMR was 2.0 (95% CI 1.6-2.6) but higher for males (5.3, 95% CI 3.8-7.0). The mortality rate from suicide and accidental deaths was 101.56 per 100 000 person-years. Poisoning, whether intentional or accidental, was the single greatest primary cause of death (26.7%). Prior emergency department presentation for poisoning (hazard ratio (HR) 4.40, 95% CI 2.13-9.09) and psychiatric admission (HR 4.01, 95% CI 1.81-8.88) were the strongest predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION: Premature mortality in young people accessing early intervention mental health services is greatly increased relative to population. Prior health service use and method of self-harm are useful predictors of future mortality. Enhanced care pathways following emergency department presentations should not be limited to those reporting suicidal ideation or intent.

Improving access to mental health care: a system dynamics model of direct access to specialist care and accelerated specialist service capacity growth.

OBJECTIVE: To simulate the impact on population mental health indicators of allowing people to book some Medicare-subsidised sessions with psychologists and other mental health care professionals without a referral (direct access), and of increasing the annual growth rate in specialist mental health care capacity (consultations). DESIGN: System dynamics model, calibrated using historical time series data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, HealthStats NSW, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and the Australian Early Development Census. Parameter values that could not be derived from these sources were estimated by constrained optimisation. SETTING: New South Wales, 1 September 2021 - 1 September 2028. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Projected mental health-related emergency department presentations, hospitalisations following self-harm, and deaths by suicide, both overall and for people aged 15-24 years. RESULTS: Direct access (for 10-50% of people requiring specialist mental health care) would lead to increases in the numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations (0.33-1.68% of baseline), hospitalisations with self-harm (0.16-0.77%), and deaths by suicide (0.19-0.90%), as waiting times for consultations would increase, leading to disengagement and consequently to increases in adverse outcomes. Increasing the annual rate of growth of mental health service capacity (two- to fivefold) would reduce the frequency of all three outcomes; combining direct access to a proportion of services with increased growth in capacity achieved substantially greater gains than an increase in service capacity alone. A fivefold increase in the annual service growth rate would increase capacity by 71.6% by the end of 2028, compared with current projections; combined with direct access to 50% of mental health consultations, 26 616 emergency department presentations (3.6%), 1199 hospitalisations following self-harm (1.9%), and 158 deaths by suicide (2.1%) could be averted. CONCLUSION: The optimal combination of increased service capacity growth (fivefold) and direct access (50% of consultations) would have double the impact over seven years of accelerated capacity growth alone. Our model highlights the risks of implementing individual reforms without knowledge of their overall system effect.

Bi-stability and critical transitions in mental health care systems: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Delayed initiation and early discontinuation of treatment due to limited availability and accessibility of services may often result in people with mild or moderate mental disorders developing more severe disorders, leading to an increase in demand for specialised care that would be expected to further restrict service availability and accessibility (due to increased waiting times, higher out-of-pocket costs, etc.). METHODS: We developed a simple system dynamics model of the interaction of specialised services capacity and disease progression to examine the impact of service availability and accessibility on the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems. RESULTS: Model analysis indicates that, under certain conditions, increasing services capacity can precipitate an abrupt, step-like transition from a state of persistently high unmet need for specialised services to an alternative, stable state in which people presenting for care receive immediate and effective treatment. This qualitative shift in services system functioning results from a 'virtuous cycle' in which increasing treatment-dependent recovery among patients with mild to moderate disorders reduces the number of severely ill patients requiring intensive and/or prolonged treatment, effectively 'releasing' services capacity that can be used to further reduce the disease progression rate. We present an empirical case study of tertiary-level child and adolescent mental health services in the Australian state of South Australia demonstrating that the conditions under which such critical transitions can occur apply in real-world services systems. CONCLUSIONS: Policy and planning decisions aimed at increasing specialised services capacity have the potential to dramatically increase the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems, promoting long-term sustainability and resilience in the face of future threats to population mental health (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, global pandemics).

Designing an App for Parents and Caregivers to Promote Cognitive and Socioemotional Development and Well-being Among Children Aged 0 to 5 Years in Diverse Cultural Settings: Scientific Framework.

Recent years have seen remarkable progress in our scientific understanding of early childhood social, emotional, and cognitive development, as well as our capacity to widely disseminate health information by using digital technologies. Together, these scientific and technological advances offer exciting opportunities to deliver high-quality information about early childhood development (ECD) to parents and families globally, which may ultimately lead to greater knowledge and confidence among parents and better outcomes among children (particularly in lower- and middle-income countries). With these potential benefits in mind, we set out to design, develop, implement, and evaluate a new parenting app-Thrive by Five-that will be available in 30 countries. The app will provide caregivers and families with evidence-based and culturally appropriate information about ECD, accompanied by sets of collective actions that go beyond mere tips for parenting practices. Herein, we describe this ongoing global project and discuss the components of our scientific framework for developing and prototyping the app's content. Specifically, we describe (1) 5 domains that are used to organize the content and goals of the app's information and associated practices; (2) 5 neurobiological systems that are relevant to ECD and can be behaviorally targeted to potentially influence social, emotional, and cognitive development; (3) our anthropological and cultural framework for learning about local contexts and appreciating decolonization perspectives; and (4) our approach to tailoring the app's content to local contexts, which involves collaboration with in-country partner organizations and local and international subject matter experts in ECD, education, medicine, psychology, and anthropology, among others. Finally, we provide examples of the content that was incorporated in Thrive by Five when it launched globally.

Double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled clinical trial of metformin as an adjunct to a sleep-wake, activity and metabolically focused behavioural intervention to improve cardiometabolic outcomes and mood symptoms in youth with major mood syndromes: study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Metformin is a medication likely to improve measures of cardiometabolic disturbance in young people with mental illness. Evidence also suggests metformin may improve depressive symptoms. This 52-week double-blind randomised control trial (RCT) aims to investigate the efficacy of metformin pharmacotherapy as an adjunct to a healthy lifestyle behavioural intervention in improving cardiometabolic outcomes, and depressive, anxiety and psychotic symptoms in youth with clinically diagnosed major mood syndromes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: At least 266 young people aged 16-25 presenting for mental healthcare for major mood syndromes who are also at risk for poor cardiometabolic outcomes will be invited to participate in this study. All participants will engage in a 12-week sleep-wake, activity and metabolically focused behavioural intervention programme. As an adjunctive intervention, participants will receive either metformin (500-1000 mg) or placebo pharmacotherapy for 52 weeks.Participants will undergo a series of assessments including: (1) self-report and clinician-administered assessments; (2) blood tests; (3) anthropometric assessments (height, weight, waist circumference and blood pressure); and (4) actigraphy. Univariate and multivariate tests (generalised mixed-effects models) will be used to examine changes in primary and secondary outcomes (and associations with predetermined predictor variables). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Sydney Local Health District Research Ethics and Governance Office (X22-0017). The results of this double-blind RCT will be disseminated into the scientific and broader community through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations, social media and university websites. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) Number: ACTRN12619001559101p, 12 November 2019.

A Mental Wealth perspective: crossing disciplines to understand the value of collective mental and social assets in the post-COVID-19 era.

BACKGROUND: A reconceptualised global strategy is key as nations begin to shift from crisis management to medium- and long-term planning to rebuild and strengthen their economic, social and public health systems. Efforts towards measuring, modelling, and forecasting Mental Wealth could serve as the catalyst for this reconceptualization. The Mental Wealth approach builds systemic resilience through investments which promote collective cognitive and emotional wellbeing. This paper presents the theoretical foundations for Mental Wealth. It presents, for the first time, literature across the disciplines of health and social sciences, economics, business, and humanities to underpin the development of an operational metric of Mental Wealth. DISCUSSION: An approach which embeds social and psychological dimensions of prosperity, alongside the economic, is needed to inform the effective allocation of investments in the post-pandemic world. The authors advocate for a transdisciplinary framework of Mental Wealth to be applied in innovating population-level policy interventions to address the growing challenges brought on by COVID-19. Mental Wealth highlights the value generated by the deployment of collective mental assets and supporting social infrastructure. In order to inform this position, a review of the literature on the concepts underpinning Mental Wealth is presented, limitations of current measurement tools of mental and social resources are evaluated, and a framework for development of a Mental Wealth metric is proposed. CONCLUSION: There are challenges in developing an operational Mental Wealth metric. The breadth of conceptual foundations to be considered is extensive, and there may be a lack of agreement on the appropriate tools for its measurement. While variability across current measurement approaches in social resources, wellbeing and mental assets contributes to the difficulty creating a holistic and generic metric, these variations are now clearer. The operationalisation of the Mental Wealth metric will require comprehensive mapping of the elements to be included against the data available.

Population mental health improves with increasing access to treatment: evidence from a dynamic modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple studies indicate that the prevalence of mental disorders in high-income countries has remained stable or increased despite substantial increases in the provision of care, leading some authors to question the effectiveness of increasing access to current treatments as a means of improving population mental health. METHODS: We developed a system dynamics model of mental disorder incidence and treatment-dependent recovery to assess two potential explanations for the apparent failure of increasing treatment provision to reduce mental disorder prevalence: 1) an increase in the individual-level risk of disorder onset; and 2) declining effectiveness of care resulting from insufficient services capacity growth. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were used to fit the model to data on the prevalence of high to very high psychological distress in Australia for the period 2008-2019. RESULTS: Estimates of yearly rates of increase in the per capita incidence of high to very high psychological distress and the proportion of patients recovering when treated indicate that the individual-level risk of developing high to very high levels of distress increased between 2008 and 2019 (posterior probability > 0.999) but provide no evidence for declining treatment effectiveness. Simulation analyses suggest that the prevalence of high to very high psychological distress would have decreased from 14.4% in 2008 to 13.6% in 2019 if per capita incidence had not increased over this period (prevalence difference 0.0079, 95% credible interval 0.0015-0.0176). CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses indicate that a modest but significant effect of increasing access to mental health care in Australia between 2008 and 2019 was obscured by a concurrent increase in the incidence of high to very high psychological distress.

Applying systems approaches to stakeholder and community engagement and knowledge mobilisation in youth mental health system modelling.

BACKGROUND: There is a significant push to change the trajectory of youth mental ill-health and suicide globally. Ensuring that young people have access to services that meet their individual needs and are easily accessible is a priority. Genuine stakeholder engagement in mental health system design is critical to ensure that system strengthening is likely to be successful within these complex environments. There is limited literature describing engagement processes undertaken by research teams in mental health program implementation and planning. This protocol describes the methods that will be used to engage local communities using systems science methods to mobilize knowledge and action to strengthen youth mental health services. METHODS: Using participatory action research principles, the research team will actively engage with local communities to ensure genuine user-led participatory systems modelling processes and enhance knowledge mobilisation within research sites. Ensuring that culturally diverse and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community voices are included will support this process. A rigorous site selection process will be undertaken to ensure that the community is committed and has capacity to actively engage in the research activities. Stakeholder engagement commences from the site selection process with the aim to build trust between researchers and key stakeholders. The research team will establish a variety of engagement resources and make opportunities available to each site depending on their local context, needs and audiences they wish to target during the process. DISCUSSION: This protocol describes the inclusive community engagement and knowledge mobilization process for the Right care, first time, where you live research Program. This Program will use an iterative and adaptive approach that considers the social, economic, and political context of each community and attempts to maximise research engagement. A theoretical framework for applying systems approaches to knowledge mobilization that is flexible will enable the implementation of a participatory action research approach. This protocol commits to a rigorous and genuine stakeholder engagement process that can be applied in mental health research implementation.

Participatory Systems Modelling for Youth Mental Health: An Evaluation Study Applying a Comprehensive Multi-Scale Framework.

The youth mental health sector is persistently challenged by issues such as service fragmentation and inefficient resource allocation. Systems modelling and simulation, particularly utilizing participatory approaches, is offering promise in supporting evidence-informed decision making with limited resources by testing alternative strategies in safe virtual environments before implementing them in the real world. However, improved evaluation efforts are needed to understand the critical elements involved in and to improve methods for implementing participatory modelling for youth mental health system and service delivery. An evaluation protocol is described to evaluate the feasibility, value, impact, and sustainability of participatory systems modelling in delivering advanced decision support capabilities for youth mental health. This study applies a comprehensive multi-scale evaluation framework, drawing on participatory action research principles as well as formative, summative, process, and outcome evaluation techniques. Novel data collection procedures are presented, including online surveys that incorporate gamification to enable social network analysis and patient journey mapping. The evaluation approach also explores the experiences of diverse stakeholders, including young people with lived (or living) experience of mental illness. Social and technical opportunities will be uncovered, as well as challenges implementing these interdisciplinary methods in complex settings to improve youth mental health policy, planning, and outcomes. This study protocol can also be adapted for broader international applications, disciplines, and contexts.

Presenting a comprehensive multi-scale evaluation framework for participatory modelling programs: A scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Systems modelling and simulation can improve understanding of complex systems to support decision making, better managing system challenges. Advances in technology have facilitated accessibility of modelling by diverse stakeholders, allowing them to engage with and contribute to the development of systems models (participatory modelling). However, despite its increasing applications across a range of disciplines, there is a growing need to improve evaluation efforts to effectively report on the quality, importance, and value of participatory modelling. This paper aims to identify and assess evaluation frameworks, criteria, and/or processes, as well as to synthesize the findings into a comprehensive multi-scale framework for participatory modelling programs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A scoping review approach was utilized, which involved a systematic literature search via Scopus in consultation with experts to identify and appraise records that described an evaluation framework, criteria, and/or process in the context of participatory modelling. This scoping review is registered with the Open Science Framework. RESULTS: The review identified 11 studies, which varied in evaluation purposes, terminologies, levels of examination, and time points. The review of studies highlighted areas of overlap and opportunities for further development, which prompted the development of a comprehensive multi-scale evaluation framework to assess participatory modelling programs across disciplines and systems modelling methods. The framework consists of four categories (Feasibility, Value, Change/Action, Sustainability) with 30 evaluation criteria, broken down across project-, individual-, group- and system-level impacts. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: The presented novel framework brings together a significant knowledge base into a flexible, cross-sectoral evaluation effort that considers the whole participatory modelling process. Developed through the rigorous synthesis of multidisciplinary expertise from existing studies, the application of the framework can provide the opportunity to understand practical future implications such as which aspects are particularly important for policy decisions, community learning, and the ongoing improvement of participatory modelling methods.

Premature mortality in early-intervention mental health services: a data linkage study protocol to examine mortality and morbidity outcomes in a cohort of help-seeking young people.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the risk of premature death from suicide, accident and injury and other physical health conditions in people seeking healthcare for mental disorders is essential for delivering targeted clinical interventions and secondary prevention strategies. It is not clear whether morbidity and mortality outcomes in hospital-based adult cohorts are applicable to young people presenting to early-intervention services. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The current data linkage project will establish the Brain and Mind Patient Research Register-Mortality and Morbidity (BPRR-M&M) database. The existing Brain and Mind Research Institute Patient Research Register (BPRR) is a cohort of 6743 young people who have accessed primary care-based early-intervention services; subsets of the BPRR contain rich longitudinal clinical, neurobiological, social and functional data. The BPRR will be linked with the routinely collected health data from emergency department (ED), hospital admission and mortality databases in New South Wales from January 2010 to November 2020. Mortality will be the primary outcome of interest, while hospital presentations will be a secondary outcome. The established BPRR-M&M database will be used to establish mortality rates and rates of ED presentations and hospital admissions. Survival analysis will determine how time to death or hospital presentation varies by identified social, demographic and clinical variables. Bayesian modelling will be used to identify predictors of these morbidity and mortality outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been reviewed and approved by the human research ethics committee of the Sydney Local Health District (2019/ETH00469). All data will be non-identifiable, and research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and scientific conference presentations.

Identifying pathways to early-onset metabolic dysfunction, insulin resistance and inflammation in young adult inpatients with emerging affective and major mood disorders.

AIM: Young people with common mood disorders face the prospect of shortened life expectancy largely due to premature cardiovascular disease. Metabolic dysfunction is a risk factor for premature cardiovascular disease. There is an ongoing debate whether metabolic dysfunction can be simply explained by weight gain secondary to psychotropic medications or whether shared genetic vulnerability, intrinsic immune-metabolic disturbances or other system perturbations (e.g. dysregulated sympathetic nervous system, circadian dysfunction) are more relevant determinants of premature cardiovascular disease. Thus, we aimed to investigate underlying drivers of metabolic dysfunction and premature cardiovascular disease in young people in the early phases of common mood disorders. METHODS: We evaluated the relationships between insulin resistance (assessed by HOMA2-IR) and body mass index (BMI), sex, diagnosis, medication, inflammatory markers and hormonal factors in 327 inpatients with emerging affective and major mood disorders admitted to the Young Adult Mental Health Unit, St Vincent's Private Hospital, Sydney. RESULTS: While HOMA2-IR scores were positively associated with BMI (rs  = 0.465, p < .001), they were also higher in those prescribed mood stabilizers (p = .044) but were not associated with specific diagnoses, other medication types or the number of prescribed medications. Further, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels (but not thyroid-stimulating hormone and ferritin levels) were positively associated with HOMA2-IR (rs  = 0. 272, p < .001) and BMI (rs  = . 409, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to BMI, other non-specific markers of inflammation are associated with early metabolic dysfunction in young people with emerging affective and major mood disorders.

Effects of adjunctive brexpiprazole on sleep-wake and circadian parameters in youth with depressive disorders: study protocol for a clinical trial.

INTRODUCTION: Sleep-wake and circadian disturbance is a key feature of mood disorders with a potential causal role and particular relevance to young people. Brexpiprazole is a second-generation antipsychotic medication with demonstrated efficacy as an adjunct to antidepressant treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD) in adults, with preliminary evidence suggesting greater effectiveness in subgroups of depressed patients with sleep disturbances. This clinical trial aims to evaluate the relationships between changes in sleep-wake and circadian parameters and changes in depressive symptoms following adjunctive brexpiprazole treatment in young adults with MDD and sleep-wake disturbance. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is designed as a 16 week (8 weeks active treatment, 8 weeks follow-up) mechanistic, open-label, single-arm, phase IV clinical trial and aims to recruit 50 young people aged 18-30 with MDD and sleep-wake cycle disturbance through an early intervention youth mental health clinic in Sydney, Australia. At baseline, participants will undergo multidimensional outcome assessment and subsequently receive 8 weeks of open-label treatment with brexpiprazole as adjunctive to their stable psychotropic medication. Following 4 weeks of treatment, clinical and self-report measures will be repeated. Ambulatory sleep-wake monitoring will be conducted continuously for the duration of treatment. After 8 weeks of treatment, all multidimensional outcome assessments will be repeated. Follow-up visits will be conducted 4 and 8 weeks after trial completion (including sleep-wake, clinical and self-report assessments). Circadian rhythm biomarkers including salivary melatonin, cortisol and core body temperature will be collected during an in-lab assessment. Additionally, metabolic, inflammatory and genetic risk markers will be collected at baseline and after 8 weeks of treatment. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This trial protocol has been approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Sydney Local Health District (X19-0417 and 2019/ETH12986, Protocol Version 1-3, dated 25 February 2021). The results of this study, in deidentified form, will be disseminated through publication in peer-reviewed journals, scholarly book chapters, presentation at conferences and publication in conference proceedings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12619001456145.