ABSTRACT
RESUMO Objetivo: analisar a distribuição espacial e a tendência temporal da mortalidade por câncer de pênis em Sergipe. Método: estudo ecológico, com técnicas de análise espacial. Foram utilizados dados secundários dos óbitos por câncer de pênis de residentes dos municípios de Sergipe de 2000 a 2015, obtidos no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade. A análise das tendências temporais foi realizada pelo programa Joinpoint por meio da regressão Poisson. As análises espaciais foram realizadas por meio do modelo bayesiano empírico, estimador de Kernel e Índices de Moran. Resultados: ocorreram 67 óbitos por câncer de pênis e uma tendência crescente dos coeficientes de mortalidade, de 0,11 (2000) para 0,64 (2015) por 100.000 homens. Observou-se autocorrelação espacial positiva (I=0,64; p=0,01) com áreas de maior risco de morte localizadas na região sul do estado. Conclusão: houve aumento dos coeficientes de mortalidade por câncer de pênis e distribuição geográfica heterogênea das áreas de risco.
RESUMEN Objetivo: analizar la distribución espacial y la tendencia temporal de la mortalidad por cáncer de pene en Sergipe. Método: estudio ecológico, con técnicas de análisis espacial. Se utilizaron datos secundarios de las muertes por cáncer de pene en residentes de los municipios de Sergipe de 2000 a 2015, obtenidos del Sistema de Informaciones sobre Mortalidad. El análisis de las tendencias temporales se realizó en el programa Joinpoint por medio de la regresión Poisson. Los análisis espaciales se realizaron por medio del modelo bayesiano empírico, del estimador de Kernel y de los Índices de Moran. Resultados: se registraron 67 muertes por cáncer de pene y una tendencia creciente de los coeficientes de mortalidad, de 0,11 (2000) a 0,64 (2015) por cada 100.000 hombres. Se observó una autocorrelación positiva (I=0,64; p=0,01) con áreas de mayor riesgo de muerte localizadas en la región sur del estado. Conclusión: se registró un aumento de los coeficientes de mortalidad por cáncer de pene y una distribución héterogenea de las áreas de riesgo.
ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution and temporal trend of mortality due to penile cancer in Sergipe. Method: An ecological study with spatial analysis techniques. Secondary data on penile cancer deaths from residents of Sergipe municipalities from 2000 to 2015 were used, obtained from the Mortality Information System. The analysis of the temporal trends was performed in the Joinpoint program through Poisson regression. Spatial analyses were performed using the empirical Bayesian model, kernel estimator and Moran indexes. Results: 67 deaths due to penile cancer occurred and a rising trend in mortality rates from 0.11 (2000) to 0.64 (2015) per 100,000 men was recorded. A positive spatial autocorrelation (I=0.64; p=0.01) was observed with areas of higher risk of death in the southern region of the state. Conclusion: There was an increase in the coefficients of mortality due to penile cancer and heterogeneous geographical distribution of the risk areas.
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Penile Neoplasms , Time Series Studies , Mortality , Urologic Neoplasms , Spatial AnalysisABSTRACT
This is an ecological study with exploratory analysis of spatial and temporal data based on mortality data with respect to prostate cancer obtained from the Mortality Information System concerning residents of the state of Sergipe, Brazil between 2000 and 2015. The analysis of temporal trends was performed using the Joinpoint Regression Program through Poisson regression. Spatial analysis was performed using the empirical Bayesian model, Kernel analysis, Global Moran and Local indices. There were 1,986 deaths due to prostate cancer, most of which occurring after 60 years of age. An increasing, non-constant but significant trend in mortality rates was noted. The kernel density estimator showed hotspot densities of the highest rates of prostate cancer mortality in the north-eastern and central regions of the state. High-risk clusters were identified for prostate cancer mortality (I = 0.55, P<0.01). There was an increase in prostate cancer mortality rates and a heterogeneous geographic distribution of risk areas, with high-risk priority areas identified in certain regions of the state. These priority areas include the municipalities located in the Northeast (Amparo do São Francisco, Aquidabã, Canhoba, Cedro de São João and Telha), the West (Frei Paulo and Pedra Mole) and the south-western region of the state (Poço Verde and Simão Dias).