Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies.

The main objective of the present article is twofold: first, to model the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease, as represented by the cumulative number of deaths as a function of time; and second, to use the corresponding mathematical model to study the effectiveness of possible intervention strategies. We applied the Richards growth model (RGM) to the COVID-19 fatality curves from several countries, where we used the data from the Johns Hopkins University database up to May 8, 2020. Countries selected for analysis with the RGM were China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and Spain. The RGM was shown to describe very well the fatality curves of China, which is in a late stage of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as of the other above countries, which supposedly are in the middle or towards the end of the outbreak at the time of this writing. We also analysed the case of Brazil, which is in an initial sub-exponential growth regime, and so we used the generalised growth model which is more appropriate for such cases. An analytic formula for the efficiency of intervention strategies within the context of the RGM is derived. Our findings show that there is only a narrow window of opportunity, after the onset of the epidemic, during which effective countermeasures can be taken. We applied our intervention model to the COVID-19 fatality curve of Italy of the outbreak to illustrate the effect of several possible interventions.

Germany's 'coronavirus anomaly': Statistical evidence that early mass testing leads to low mortality rates

In this note, we present a statistical analysis of the mortality rates of COVID-19 for several selected European countries. We compare the countries' mortality rates with their respective number of tests as a function of the time since the first death. Our analysis shows that countries that either delayed mass testing, such as Italy, or have not fully adopted it, such as France and the UK, have had much higher mortality rates than Germany, which has adopted a policy of wide and early testing. Conversely, countries that have followed Germany's example, such as Portugal, have so far had comparatively low mortality rates.

Fighting the coronavirus: the window of opportunity for non-pharmacological interventions is narrow / La lucha contra el Coronavirus: La ventana para intervenciones no farmacológias es estrecha / Combate ao Coronavírus: a Janela para Intervenções não Farmacológicas é Estreita

In this technical note, we present a brief discussion of the main results reported in our paper "Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies", MedRxiv/2020/051557 (DOI:10.1101/2020.04.02.20051557). In that paper, we applied the Richards growth model (RGM) to describe the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease for countries that were, up to April 1, 2020, near the end or in an intermediary phase of the outbreak, such as China, Italy, Spain, and Iran. We also analyzed data from Brazil, which was still in the early growth regime, and so we used an alternative model (the generalized growth model) that is more appropriate for the early stages of the epidemic. We also used the RGM to study the effectiveness of possible intervention strategies and, within this context, we derived an analytic formula for the efficiency of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. Our findings show that there is only a narrow window, after the onset of the epidemic, during which effective countermeasures can be taken. Here we present a brief overview of the results obtained in the aforementioned paper, but we use more recent data to update our analysis. For more details, we refer the reader to the original article.

En esta nota técnica presentamos una breve discusión de los principales resultados de nuestro artículo "Modelado de curvas de mortalidad de COVID-19 y la efectividad de las estrategias de intervención", MedRxiv / 2020/051557 (DOI: 10.1101 / 2020.04.02.20051557). En este artículo, aplicamos el modelo de crecimiento de Richards para describir las curvas de mortalidad de COVID-19 para países que estaban, hasta el 4/1/2020, cerca del final o en la fase intermedia de la epidemia, como China, Italia, España e Irán. También analizamos datos de Brasil, aunque todavía estaba en las primeras etapas de la epidemia. Para este caso, utilizamos un modelo alternativo, el modelo de crecimiento generalizado, que es más apropiado para esa fase. También utilizamos el modelo de Richards para estudiar la efectividad de las posibles estrategias de intervención y, en este contexto, derivamos una fórmula analítica para la eficiencia de las estrategias de intervención no farmacológicas. Nuestros resultados muestran que solo hay una ventana estrecha, después de que comienza el brote, durante la cual se pueden tomar intervenciones no farmacológicas efectivas para contener la epidemia. En esta nota, también presentamos algunos resultados originales para las curvas de fatalidad de Italia y Brasil, actualizadas con datos hasta el 08/04/2020, además de una breve descripción general del trabajo mencionado anteriormente. Para más detalles, remitimos al lector al artículo original.

Nesta nota técnica apresentamos uma breve discussão dos principais resultados do nosso artigo "Modelling fatality curves of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of intervention strategies", MedRxiv/2020/051557 (DOI:10.1101/2020.04.02.20051557). Nesse artigo, aplicamos o modelo de crescimento de Richards para descrever as curvas de fatalidade da COVID-19 para países que estavam, até 01/04/2020, ou perto do fim ou na fase intermediária da epidemia, como a China, Itália, Espanha e Irã. Também analisamos dados do Brasil, embora ainda estivesse na fase inicial da epidemia, mas nesse caso usamos um modelo alternativo­o modelo de crescimento generalizado­que é mais apropriado para essa fase. Utilizamos ainda o modelo de Richards para estudar a eficácia de possíveis estratégias de intervenção e, nesse contexto, derivamos uma fórmula analítica para a eficiência das estratégias de intervenção não farmacológicas. Os nossos resultados mostram que existe apenas uma estreita janela, após o início do surto, durante a qual intervenções efetivas não farmacológicas podem ser tomadas para conter a epidemia. Nesta nota, apresentamos ainda alguns resultados originais para as curvas de fatalidade da Itália e do Brasil, atualizados com dados até 08/04/2020, além de uma breve descrição geral do trabalho acima mencionado. Para mais detalhes, remetemos o leitor para o artigo original.