Percolation and Topological Properties of Temporal Higher-Order Networks.

Many complex systems that exhibit temporal nonpairwise interactions can be represented by means of generative higher-order network models. Here, we propose a hidden variable formalism to analytically characterize a general class of higher-order network models. We apply our framework to a temporal higher-order activity-driven model, providing analytical expressions for the main topological properties of the time-integrated hypergraphs, depending on the integration time and the activity distributions characterizing the model. Furthermore, we provide analytical estimates for the percolation times of general classes of uncorrelated and correlated hypergraphs. Finally, we quantify the extent to which the percolation time of empirical social interactions is underestimated when their higher-order nature is neglected.

Political context of the European vaccine debate on Twitter.

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, fears grew that making vaccination a political (instead of public health) issue may impact the efficacy of this life-saving intervention, spurring the spread of vaccine-hesitant content. In this study, we examine whether there is a relationship between the political interest of social media users and their exposure to vaccine-hesitant content on Twitter. We focus on 17 European countries using a multilingual, longitudinal dataset of tweets spanning the period before COVID, up to the vaccine roll-out. We find that, in most countries, users' endorsement of vaccine-hesitant content is the highest in the early months of the pandemic, around the time of greatest scientific uncertainty. Further, users who follow politicians from right-wing parties, and those associated with authoritarian or anti-EU stances are more likely to endorse vaccine-hesitant content, whereas those following left-wing politicians, more pro-EU or liberal parties, are less likely. Somewhat surprisingly, politicians did not play an outsized role in the vaccine debates of their countries, receiving a similar number of retweets as other similarly popular users. This systematic, multi-country, longitudinal investigation of the connection of politics with vaccine hesitancy has important implications for public health policy and communication.

Online conspiracy communities are more resilient to deplatforming.

Online social media foster the creation of active communities around shared narratives. Such communities may turn into incubators for conspiracy theories-some spreading violent messages that could sharpen the debate and potentially harm society. To face these phenomena, most social media platforms implemented moderation policies, ranging from posting warning labels up to deplatforming, i.e. permanently banning users. Assessing the effectiveness of content moderation is crucial for balancing societal safety while preserving the right to free speech. In this article, we compare the shift in behavior of users affected by the ban of two large communities on Reddit, GreatAwakening and FatPeopleHate, which were dedicated to spreading the QAnon conspiracy and body-shaming individuals, respectively. Following the ban, both communities partially migrated to Voat, an unmoderated Reddit clone. We estimate how many users migrate, finding that users in the conspiracy community are much more likely to leave Reddit altogether and join Voat. Then, we quantify the behavioral shift within Reddit and across Reddit and Voat by matching common users. While in general the activity of users is lower on the new platform, GreatAwakening users who decided to completely leave Reddit maintain a similar level of activity on Voat. Toxicity strongly increases on Voat in both communities. Finally, conspiracy users migrating from Reddit tend to recreate their previous social network on Voat. Our findings suggest that banning conspiracy communities hosting violent content should be carefully designed, as these communities may be more resilient to deplatforming.

Machine Learning Model as a Useful Tool for Prediction of Thyroid Nodules Histology, Aggressiveness and Treatment-Related Complications.

Thyroid nodules are very common, 5-15% of which are malignant. Despite the low mortality rate of well-differentiated thyroid cancer, some variants may behave aggressively, making nodule differentiation mandatory. Ultrasound and fine-needle aspiration biopsy are simple, safe, cost-effective and accurate diagnostic tools, but have some potential limits. Recently, machine learning (ML) approaches have been successfully applied to healthcare datasets to predict the outcomes of surgical procedures. The aim of this work is the application of ML to predict tumor histology (HIS), aggressiveness and post-surgical complications in thyroid patients. This retrospective study was conducted at the ENT Division of Eastern Piedmont University, Novara (Italy), and reported data about 1218 patients who underwent surgery between January 2006 and December 2018. For each patient, general information, HIS and outcomes are reported. For each prediction task, we trained ML models on pre-surgery features alone as well as on both pre- and post-surgery data. The ML pipeline included data cleaning, oversampling to deal with unbalanced datasets and exploration of hyper-parameter space for random forest models, testing their stability and ranking feature importance. The main results are (i) the construction of a rich, hand-curated, open dataset including pre- and post-surgery features (ii) the development of accurate yet explainable ML models. Results highlight pre-screening as the most important feature to predict HIS and aggressiveness, and that, in our population, having an out-of-range (Low) fT3 dosage at pre-operative examination is strongly associated with a higher aggressiveness of the disease. Our work shows how ML models can find patterns in thyroid patient data and could support clinicians to refine diagnostic tools and improve their accuracy.

Modeling Explosive Opinion Depolarization in Interdependent Topics.

Understanding the dynamics of opinion depolarization is pivotal to reducing the political divide in our society. We propose an opinion dynamics model, which we name the social compass model, for interdependent topics represented in a polar space, where zealots holding extreme opinions are less prone to change their minds. We analytically show that the phase transition from polarization to consensus, as a function of increasing social influence, is explosive if topics are not correlated. We validate our theoretical framework through extensive numerical simulations and recover explosive depolarization also by using initial opinions from the American National Election Studies, including polarized and interdependent topics.

Global Misinformation Spillovers in the Vaccination Debate Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Multilingual Twitter Study.

BACKGROUND: Antivaccination views pervade online social media, fueling distrust in scientific expertise and increasing the number of vaccine-hesitant individuals. Although previous studies focused on specific countries, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought the vaccination discourse worldwide, underpinning the need to tackle low-credible information flows on a global scale to design effective countermeasures. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantify cross-border misinformation flows among users exposed to antivaccination (no-vax) content and the effects of content moderation on vaccine-related misinformation. METHODS: We collected 316 million vaccine-related Twitter (Twitter, Inc) messages in 18 languages from October 2019 to March 2021. We geolocated users in 28 different countries and reconstructed a retweet network and cosharing network for each country. We identified communities of users exposed to no-vax content by detecting communities in the retweet network via hierarchical clustering and manual annotation. We collected a list of low-credibility domains and quantified the interactions and misinformation flows among no-vax communities of different countries. RESULTS: The findings showed that during the pandemic, no-vax communities became more central in the country-specific debates and their cross-border connections strengthened, revealing a global Twitter antivaccination network. US users are central in this network, whereas Russian users also became net exporters of misinformation during vaccination rollout. Interestingly, we found that Twitter's content moderation efforts, in particular the suspension of users following the January 6 US Capitol attack, had a worldwide impact in reducing the spread of misinformation about vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may help public health institutions and social media platforms mitigate the spread of health-related, low-credibility information by revealing vulnerable web-based communities.

From Reddit to Wall Street: the role of committed minorities in financial collective action.

In January 2021, retail investors coordinated on Reddit to target short-selling activity by hedge funds on GameStop shares, causing a surge in the share price and triggering significant losses for the funds involved. Such an effective collective action was unprecedented in finance, and its dynamics remain unclear. Here, we analyse Reddit and financial data and rationalize the events based on recent findings describing how a small fraction of committed individuals may trigger behavioural cascades. First, we operationalize the concept of individual commitment in financial discussions. Second, we show that the increase of commitment within Reddit pre-dated the initial surge in price. Third, we reveal that initial committed users occupied a central position in the network of Reddit conversations. Finally, we show that the social identity of the broader Reddit community grew as the collective action unfolded. These findings shed light on financial collective action, as several observers anticipate it will grow in importance.

Modeling partial lockdowns in multiplex networks using partition strategies.

National stay-at-home orders, or lockdowns, were imposed in several countries to drastically reduce the social interactions mainly responsible for the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Despite being essential to slow down the COVID-19 pandemic, these containment measures are associated with an economic burden. In this work, we propose a network approach to model the implementation of a partial lockdown, breaking the society into disconnected components, or partitions. Our model is composed by two main ingredients: a multiplex network representing human contacts within different contexts, formed by a Household layer, a Work layer, and a Social layer including generic social interactions, and a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered process that mimics the epidemic spreading. We compare different partition strategies, with a twofold aim: reducing the epidemic outbreak and minimizing the economic cost associated to the partial lockdown. We also show that the inclusion of unconstrained social interactions dramatically increases the epidemic spreading, while different kinds of restrictions on social interactions help in keeping the benefices of the network partition. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41109-021-00366-7.

Detecting adherence to the recommended childhood vaccination schedule from user-generated content in a US parenting forum.

Vaccine hesitancy is considered as one of the leading causes for the resurgence of vaccine preventable diseases. A non-negligible minority of parents does not fully adhere to the recommended vaccination schedule, leading their children to be partially immunized and at higher risk of contracting vaccine preventable diseases. Here, we leverage more than one million comments of 201,986 users posted from March 2008 to April 2019 on the public online forum BabyCenter US to learn more about such parents. For 32% with geographic location, we find the number of mapped users for each US state resembling the census population distribution with good agreement. We employ Natural Language Processing to identify 6884 and 10,131 users expressing their intention of following the recommended and alternative vaccination schedule, respectively RSUs and ASUs. From the analysis of their activity on the forum we find that ASUs have distinctly different interests and previous experiences with vaccination than RSUs. In particular, ASUs are more likely to follow groups focused on alternative medicine, are two times more likely to have experienced adverse events following immunization, and to mention more serious adverse reactions such as seizure or developmental regression. Content analysis of comments shows that the resources most frequently shared by both groups point to governmental domains (.gov). Finally, network analysis shows that RSUs and ASUs communicate between each other (indicating the absence of echo chambers), however with the latter group being more endogamic and favoring interactions with other ASUs. While our findings are limited to the specific platform analyzed, our approach may provide additional insights for the development of campaigns targeting parents on digital platforms.

No echo in the chambers of political interactions on Reddit.

Echo chambers in online social networks, whereby users' beliefs are reinforced by interactions with like-minded peers and insulation from others' points of view, have been decried as a cause of political polarization. Here, we investigate their role in the debate around the 2016 US elections on Reddit, a fundamental platform for the success of Donald Trump. We identify Trump vs Clinton supporters and reconstruct their political interaction network. We observe a preference for cross-cutting political interactions between the two communities rather than within-group interactions, thus contradicting the echo chamber narrative. Furthermore, these interactions are asymmetrical: Clinton supporters are particularly eager to answer comments by Trump supporters. Beside asymmetric heterophily, users show assortative behavior for activity, and disassortative, asymmetric behavior for popularity. Our findings are tested against a null model of random interactions, by using two different approaches: a network rewiring which preserves the activity of nodes, and a logit regression which takes into account possible confounding factors. Finally, we explore possible socio-demographic implications. Users show a tendency for geographical homophily and a small positive correlation between cross-interactions and voter abstention. Our findings shed light on public opinion formation on social media, calling for a better understanding of the social dynamics at play in this context.

The echo chamber effect on social media.

Social media may limit the exposure to diverse perspectives and favor the formation of groups of like-minded users framing and reinforcing a shared narrative, that is, echo chambers. However, the interaction paradigms among users and feed algorithms greatly vary across social media platforms. This paper explores the key differences between the main social media platforms and how they are likely to influence information spreading and echo chambers' formation. We perform a comparative analysis of more than 100 million pieces of content concerning several controversial topics (e.g., gun control, vaccination, abortion) from Gab, Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter. We quantify echo chambers over social media by two main ingredients: 1) homophily in the interaction networks and 2) bias in the information diffusion toward like-minded peers. Our results show that the aggregation of users in homophilic clusters dominate online interactions on Facebook and Twitter. We conclude the paper by directly comparing news consumption on Facebook and Reddit, finding higher segregation on Facebook.

Trends and Characteristics of Emergency Medical Services in Italy: A 5-Years Population-Based Registry Analysis.

Background: Emergency Medical Services (EMS) plays a fundamental role in providing good quality healthcare services to citizens, as they are the first responders in distressing situations. Few studies have used available EMS data to investigate EMS call characteristics and subsequent responses. Methods: Data were extracted from the emergency registry for the period 2013-2017. This included call and rescue vehicle dispatch information. All relationships in analyses and differences in events proportion between 2013 and 2017 were tested against the Pearson's Chi-Square with a 99% level of confidence. Results: Among the 2,120,838 emergency calls, operators dispatched at least one rescue vehicle for 1,494,855. There was an estimated overall incidence of 96 emergency calls and 75 rescue vehicles dispatched per 1000 inhabitants per year. Most calls were made by private citizens, during the daytime, and were made from home (63.8%); 31% of rescue vehicle dispatches were advanced emergency medical vehicles. The highest number of rescue vehicle dispatches ended at the emergency department (74.7%). Conclusions: Our data showed that, with some exception due to environmental differences, the highest proportion of incoming emergency calls is not acute or urgent and could be more effectively managed in other settings than in an Emergency Departments (ED). Better management of dispatch can reduce crowding and save hospital emergency departments time, personnel, and health system costs.

Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The exposure and consumption of information during epidemic outbreaks may alter people's risk perception and trigger behavioral changes, which can ultimately affect the evolution of the disease. It is thus of utmost importance to map the dissemination of information by mainstream media outlets and the public response to this information. However, our understanding of this exposure-response dynamic during the COVID-19 pandemic is still limited. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to characterize the media coverage and collective internet response to the COVID-19 pandemic in four countries: Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada. METHODS: We collected a heterogeneous data set including 227,768 web-based news articles and 13,448 YouTube videos published by mainstream media outlets, 107,898 user posts and 3,829,309 comments on the social media platform Reddit, and 278,456,892 views of COVID-19-related Wikipedia pages. To analyze the relationship between media coverage, epidemic progression, and users' collective web-based response, we considered a linear regression model that predicts the public response for each country given the amount of news exposure. We also applied topic modelling to the data set using nonnegative matrix factorization. RESULTS: Our results show that public attention, quantified as user activity on Reddit and active searches on Wikipedia pages, is mainly driven by media coverage; meanwhile, this activity declines rapidly while news exposure and COVID-19 incidence remain high. Furthermore, using an unsupervised, dynamic topic modeling approach, we show that while the levels of attention dedicated to different topics by media outlets and internet users are in good accordance, interesting deviations emerge in their temporal patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings offer an additional key to interpret public perception and response to the current global health emergency and raise questions about the effects of attention saturation on people's collective awareness and risk perception and thus on their tendencies toward behavioral change.

Publisher's Note: Equivalence between non-Markovian and Markovian Dynamics in Epidemic Spreading Processes [Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 128301 (2017)].

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.128301.

Modeling Echo Chambers and Polarization Dynamics in Social Networks.

Echo chambers and opinion polarization recently quantified in several sociopolitical contexts and across different social media raise concerns on their potential impact on the spread of misinformation and on the openness of debates. Despite increasing efforts, the dynamics leading to the emergence of these phenomena remain unclear. We propose a model that introduces the dynamics of radicalization as a reinforcing mechanism driving the evolution to extreme opinions from moderate initial conditions. Inspired by empirical findings on social interaction dynamics, we consider agents characterized by heterogeneous activities and homophily. We show that the transition between a global consensus and emerging radicalized states is mostly governed by social influence and by the controversialness of the topic discussed. Compared with empirical data of polarized debates on Twitter, the model qualitatively reproduces the observed relation between users' engagement and opinions, as well as opinion segregation in the interaction network. Our findings shed light on the mechanisms that may lie at the core of the emergence of echo chambers and polarization in social media.

The interconnected wealth of nations: Shock propagation on global trade-investment multiplex networks.

The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify shock propagation on the global trade-investment multiplex network. To this aim, we propose a model that couples a spreading dynamics, describing how economic distress propagates between connected countries, with an internal contagion mechanism, describing the spreading of such economic distress within a given country. At the local level, we find that the interplay between trade and financial interactions influences the vulnerabilities of countries to shocks. At the large scale, we find a simple linear relation between the relative magnitude of a shock in a country and its global impact on the whole economic system, albeit the strength of internal contagion is country-dependent and the inter-country propagation dynamics is non-linear. Interestingly, this systemic impact can be associated to intra-layer and inter-layer scale factors that we name network multipliers, that are independent of the magnitude of the initial shock. Our model sets-up a quantitative framework to stress-test the robustness of individual countries and of the world economy.

Epidemic spreading in modular time-varying networks.

We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we study the epidemic size of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, SIR, models and the epidemic threshold of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible, SIS, models. Interestingly, we find that while the presence of tightly connected clusters inhibits SIR processes, it speeds up SIS phenomena. In this case, we observe that modular structures induce a reduction of the threshold with respect to time-varying networks without communities. We confirm the theoretical results by means of extensive numerical simulations both on synthetic graphs as well as on a real modular and temporal network.

Navigability of temporal networks in hyperbolic space.

Information routing is one of the main tasks in many complex networks with a communication function. Maps produced by embedding the networks in hyperbolic space can assist this task enabling the implementation of efficient navigation strategies. However, only static maps have been considered so far, while navigation in more realistic situations, where the network structure may vary in time, remains largely unexplored. Here, we analyze the navigability of real networks by using greedy routing in hyperbolic space, where the nodes are subject to a stochastic activation-inactivation dynamics. We find that such dynamics enhances navigability with respect to the static case. Interestingly, there exists an optimal intermediate activation value, which ensures the best trade-off between the increase in the number of successful paths and a limited growth of their length. Contrary to expectations, the enhanced navigability is robust even when the most connected nodes inactivate with very high probability. Finally, our results indicate that some real networks are ultranavigable and remain highly navigable even if the network structure is extremely unsteady. These findings have important implications for the design and evaluation of efficient routing protocols that account for the temporal nature of real complex networks.

Effects of temporal correlations in social multiplex networks.

Multi-layered networks represent a major advance in the description of natural complex systems, and their study has shed light on new physical phenomena. Despite its importance, however, the role of the temporal dimension in their structure and function has not been investigated in much detail so far. Here we study the temporal correlations between layers exhibited by real social multiplex networks. At a basic level, the presence of such correlations implies a certain degree of predictability in the contact pattern, as we quantify by an extension of the entropy and mutual information analyses proposed for the single-layer case. At a different level, we demonstrate that temporal correlations are a signature of a 'multitasking' behavior of network agents, characterized by a higher level of switching between different social activities than expected in a uncorrelated pattern. Moreover, temporal correlations significantly affect the dynamics of coupled epidemic processes unfolding on the network. Our work opens the way for the systematic study of temporal multiplex networks and we anticipate it will be of interest to researchers in a broad array of fields.

Equivalence between Non-Markovian and Markovian Dynamics in Epidemic Spreading Processes.

A general formalism is introduced to allow the steady state of non-Markovian processes on networks to be reduced to equivalent Markovian processes on the same substrates. The example of an epidemic spreading process is considered in detail, where all the non-Markovian aspects are shown to be captured within a single parameter, the effective infection rate. Remarkably, this result is independent of the topology of the underlying network, as demonstrated by numerical simulations on two-dimensional lattices and various types of random networks. Furthermore, an analytic approximation for the effective infection rate is introduced, which enables the calculation of the critical point and of the critical exponents for the non-Markovian dynamics.