Minimal representations of possibility at age 3.

Young children do not always consider alternative possibilities when planning. Suppose a prize is hidden in a single occluded container and another prize is hidden in an occluded pair. If given a chance to choose one container and receive its contents, choosing the singleton maximizes expected reward because each member of the pair might be empty. Yet, 3-y-olds choose a member of the pair almost half the time. Why don't they maximize expected reward? Three studies provide evidence that 3-y-olds do not deploy possibility concepts like MIGHT, which would let them represent that each container in the pair might and might not contain a prize. Rather, they build an overly specific model of the situation that correctly specifies that the singleton holds a prize while inappropriately specifying which member of the pair holds a prize and which is empty. So, when asked to choose a container, they see two equally good options. This predicts approximately 50% choice of the singleton, observed in studies 1 and 3. But when asked to throw away a container so that they can receive the remaining contents (study 2), they mostly throw away a member of the pair. The full pattern of data is expected if children construct overly specific models. We discuss whether 3-year-olds lack possibility concepts or whether performance demands prevent deployment of them in our tasks.

Field evaluation of a prototype paper-based point-of-care fingerstick transaminase test.

Monitoring for drug-induced liver injury (DILI) via serial transaminase measurements in patients on potentially hepatotoxic medications (e.g., for HIV and tuberculosis) is routine in resource-rich nations, but often unavailable in resource-limited settings. Towards enabling universal access to affordable point-of-care (POC) screening for DILI, we have performed the first field evaluation of a paper-based, microfluidic fingerstick test for rapid, semi-quantitative, visual measurement of blood alanine aminotransferase (ALT). Our objectives were to assess operational feasibility, inter-operator variability, lot variability, device failure rate, and accuracy, to inform device modification for further field testing. The paper-based ALT test was performed at POC on fingerstick samples from 600 outpatients receiving HIV treatment in Vietnam. Results, read independently by two clinic nurses, were compared with gold-standard automated (Roche Cobas) results from venipuncture samples obtained in parallel. Two device lots were used sequentially. We demonstrated high inter-operator agreement, with 96.3% (95% C.I., 94.3-97.7%) agreement in placing visual results into clinically-defined "bins" (<3x, 3-5x, and >5x upper limit of normal), >90% agreement in validity determination, and intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.89 (95% C.I., 0.87-0.91). Lot variability was observed in % invalids due to hemolysis (21.1% for Lot 1, 1.6% for Lot 2) and correlated with lots of incorporated plasma separation membranes. Invalid rates <1% were observed for all other device controls. Overall bin placement accuracy for the two readers was 84% (84.3%/83.6%). Our findings of extremely high inter-operator agreement for visual reading-obtained in a target clinical environment, as performed by local practitioners-indicate that the device operation and reading process is feasible and reproducible. Bin placement accuracy and lot-to-lot variability data identified specific targets for device optimization and material quality control. This is the first field study performed with a patterned paper-based microfluidic device and opens the door to development of similar assays for other important analytes.

Malaria prevalence defined by microscopy, antigen detection, DNA amplification and total nucleic acid amplification in a malaria-endemic region during the peak malaria transmission season.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the malaria prevalence by microscopy, antigen detection and nucleic acid detection in a defined subpopulation in a Plasmodium falciparum-endemic region during the peak transmission season. METHODS: Blood specimens were collected in a cross-sectional study involving children aged 5-10 years (n = 195) presenting with acute fever to two clinics in Western Kenya. All specimens underwent microscopy, HRP2 and aldolase antigen detection by enzyme immunoassay (EIA), parasite-specific DNA and total nucleic acid (RNA and DNA) by real-time PCR (qPCR) and reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR). RESULTS: Microscopy detected 65/195 cases of malaria infection [95% confidence interval (CI) 52-78]. HRP2 and aldolase EIA had similar sensitivity levels detecting antigen in 65/195 (95% CI, 52-78) and 57/195 (95% CI, 45-70) cases. Discordants in antigen detection vs. microscopy occurred at <470 parasites/µl and <4900 parasites/µl for HRP2 and aldolase, respectively. Detection of total nucleic acid allowed a 3 log lower limit of detection than just DNA detection by real-time PCR in vitro. In clinical specimens, 114/195 (95% CI, 100-127) were qPCR positive (DNA), and 187/195 (95% CI, 179-191) were qRT-PCR positive (DNA plus RNA). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of submicroscopic malaria infection was significantly higher when detecting total nucleic acid than just DNA in this outpatient population during the high transmission season. Defining standards for submicroscopic infection will be important for control programmes, diagnostics development efforts and molecular epidemiology studies.

Short-term effect of zidovudine on plasma and genital human immunodeficiency virus type 1 and viral turnover in these compartments.

The effect of zidovudine on plasma and genital human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was determined in 42 antiretroviral-naive HIV-1-seropositive women in Nairobi. After 7 days of zidovudine treatment, HIV-1 RNA levels decreased by 0.5 to 1.1 log(10) in plasma and genital secretions. HIV-1 RNA half-life following zidovudine treatment was 4.7, 1.3, and 0.9 days in plasma, cervix, and vagina, respectively, and significantly shorter in genital secretions than in plasma (P < 0.001). Defining the short-term effect of zidovudine on plasma and genital HIV-1 is important for improving perinatal HIV-1 interventions.