The effect of population model choice and network topologies on extinction time patterns in dendritic ecological networks.

Models of populations in habitat networks are vital for understanding and linking processes and patterns across individuals, environments, ecological interactions, and population structures. River ecosystem models combine the physical structure of the networks with the biological processes of the organisms using structural and functional models, respectively. Previous studies on dendritic river networks have employed different functional (population) models and either directly claimed or implied that the results illustrate general properties of actual river systems. However, these studies have used different approaches and assumptions when modeling population characteristics and behavior, and it is possible that inferences regarding a system may vary based on the combination of functional model and the spatial structure of a network. This study aims to understand if different functional models in river systems produce substantially different model results and, therefore, whether conclusions are model-dependent. We compare variation in extinction time and occupancy proportion of river networks with linear, trellis, dendritic and ring-lattice topologies, using three population models (uniform, age-class and individual based) and one metapopulation-based (patch-occupancy) model. Dendritic, linear, and trellis structures did not show notable differences among extinction times for any of the four models. The difference between topologies was higher for the patch-occupancy model compared to the three population models. There were significant differences in the variations of patch-occupancy between the metapopulation and the population models, but the three population models of differing complexity produced broadly similar results. Therefore, if the occupancy data is obtained based on local subpopulations, spatial arrangement and connectivity does not appear to be the sole predictor of single-species metapopulation responses. We conclude that the outputs from functional models are robust to assumptions and varying levels of detail as long as they contain at least some detail at the level of individuals within habitat nodes. Also, if we are modeling network-scale populations, models that include at least some detailed information on individuals are a far better choice than considering populations implicitly.

Simulating chlorophyll-a fluorescence changing rate and phycocyanin fluorescence by using a multi-sensor system in Lake Taihu, China.

Algal pollution in water sources has posed a serious problem. Estimating algal concentration in advance saves time for drinking water plants to take measures and helps us to understand causal chains of algal dynamics. This paper explores the possibility of building a short-term algal early warning model with online monitoring systems. In this study, we collected high-frequency data for water quality and weather conditions in shallow and eutrophic Lake Taihu by an in situ multi-sensor system (BIOLIFT) combined with a weather station. Extracted chlorophyll-a from water samples and chlorophyll-a fluorescence differentiated according to different algal classeses verified that chlorophyll-a fluorescence continuously measured by BIOLIFT only represent chlorophyll-a of green algae and diatoms. Stepwise linear regression was used to simulate the chlorophyll-a fluorescence changing rate of green algae and diatoms together (ΔChla-f%) and phycocyanin fluorescence concentration (blue-green algae) on the water surface layer (CyanoS). The results show that nutrients (total N, NO3-N, NH4-N, total P) were not necessary parameters for short-term algal models. ΔChla-f % is greatly influenced by the seasons, so seasonal partition of data before modeling is highly recommended. CyanoSmax and ΔChla-f% were simulated by only using multi-sensor and meteorological data (R2 = 0.73; 0.75). All the independent variables (wave, water temperature, relative humidity, depth, cloud cover) used in the model were measured online and predictable. Wave height is the most important independent variable in the shallow lake. This paper offers a new approach to simulate and predict the algal dynamics, which also can be applied in other surface water.

Eco-compensation in China: Theory, practices and suggestions for the future.

Eco-compensation is the most important form of compensatory conservation in China. However, this compensatory mechanism is criticized for vague definition and massive government participation. For better understanding of eco-compensation in China, this paper compares theories and practices of compensatory mechanisms in China and abroad. The analysis of theoretical backgrounds shows that eco-compensation in China is a combination of 'ecological compensation' and 'payments for ecosystem services'. Ten compensatory projects in China and abroad are assessed to reveal characteristics and problems of eco-compensation in China. The results show that compensatory projects in China lagged behind mature foreign compensatory projects in clarity of property rights, responsibility fulfillment, executive efficiency, effectiveness, sustainability and equality. The massive participation of the government is the major reason for the poor performance of compensatory projects in China. However, government participation is necessary at the present stage in China for the income gap and beneficiaries' low willingness to pay. For the improvement of eco-compensation in China, suggestions are given on the choice of non-market valuation methods, the creation of property rights and the establishment of market mechanisms.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles.

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Evaluating Use of Environmental Flows to Aerate Streams by Modelling the Counterfactual Case.

This paper evaluates an experimental environmental flow manipulation by modeling the counterfactual case that no environmental flow was applied. This is an alternate approach to evaluating the effect of an environmental flow intervention when a before-after or control-impact comparison is not possible. In this case, the flow manipulation is a minimum flow designed to prevent hypoxia in a weir on the low-gradient Broken Creek in south-eastern Australia. At low flows, low reaeration rates and high respiration rates associated with elevated organic matter loading in the weir pool can lead to a decline in dissolved oxygen concentrations with adverse consequences both for water chemistry and aquatic biota. Using a one dimensional oxygen balance model fitted to field measurements, this paper demonstrates that increased flow leads to increases in reaeration rates, presumably because of enhanced turbulence and hence mixing in the surface layers. By comparing the observed dissolved oxygen levels with the modeled counterfactual case, we show that the environmental flow was effective in preventing hypoxia.

Make the Most of the Data You've Got: Bayesian Models and a Surrogate Species Approach to Assessing Benefits of Upstream Migration Flows for the Endangered Australian Grayling.

Environmental water managers must make best use of allocations, and adaptive management is one means of improving effectiveness of environmental water delivery. Adaptive management relies on generation of new knowledge from monitoring and evaluation, but it is often difficult to make clear inferences from available monitoring data. Alternative approaches to assessment of flow benefits may offer an improved pathway to adaptive management. We developed Bayesian statistical models to inform adaptive management of the threatened Australian grayling (Prototroctes maraena) in the coastal Thomson River, South-East Victoria Australia. The models assessed the importance of flows in spring and early summer (migration flows) for upstream dispersal and colonization of juveniles of this diadromous species. However, Australian grayling young-of-year were recorded in low numbers, and models provided no indication of the benefit of migration flows. To overcome this limitation, we applied the same models to young-of-year of a surrogate species (tupong-Pseudaphritis urvilli)-a more common diadromous species expected to respond to flow similarly to Australian grayling-and found strong positive responses to migration flows. Our results suggest two complementary approaches to supporting adaptive management of Australian grayling. First, refine monitoring approaches to allow direct measurement of effects of migration flows, a process currently under way. Second, while waiting for improved data, further investigate the use of tupong as a surrogate species. More generally, alternative approaches to assessment can improve knowledge to inform adaptive management, and this can occur while monitoring is being revised to directly target environmental responses of interest.

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability.

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Bedforms as Biocatalytic Filters: A Pumping and Streamline Segregation Model for Nitrate Removal in Permeable Sediments.

Bedforms are a focal point of carbon and nitrogen cycling in streams and coastal marine ecosystems. In this paper, we develop and test a mechanistic model, the "pumping and streamline segregation" or PASS model, for nitrate removal in bedforms. The PASS model dramatically reduces computational overhead associated with modeling nitrogen transformations in bedforms and reproduces (within a factor of 2 or better) previously published measurements and models of biogeochemical reaction rates, benthic fluxes, and in-sediment nutrient and oxygen concentrations. Application of the PASS model to a diverse set of marine and freshwater environments indicates that (1) physical controls on nitrate removal in a bedform include the pore water flushing rate, residence time distribution, and relative rates of respiration and transport (as represented by the Damkohler number); (2) the biogeochemical pathway for nitrate removal is an environment-specific combination of direct denitrification of stream nitrate and coupled nitrification-denitrification of stream and/or sediment ammonium; and (3) permeable sediments are almost always a net source of dissolved inorganic nitrogen. The PASS model also provides a mechanistic explanation for previously published empirical correlations showing denitrification velocity (N2 flux divided by nitrate concentration) declines as a power law of nitrate concentration in a stream (Mulholland et al. Nature, 2008, 452, 202-205).

First-order contaminant removal in the hyporheic zone of streams: physical insights from a simple analytical model.

A simple analytical model is presented for the removal of stream-borne contaminants by hyporheic exchange across duned or rippled streambeds. The model assumes a steady-state balance between contaminant supply from the stream and first-order reaction in the sediment. Hyporheic exchange occurs by bed form pumping, in which water and contaminants flow into bed forms in high-pressure regions (downwelling zones) and out of bed forms in low-pressure regions (upwelling zones). Model-predicted contaminant concentrations are higher in downwelling zones than upwelling zones, reflecting the strong coupling that exists between transport and reaction in these systems. When flow-averaged, the concentration difference across upwelling and downwelling zones drives a net contaminant flux into the sediment bed proportional to the average downwelling velocity. The downwelling velocity is functionally equivalent to a mass transfer coefficient, and can be estimated from stream state variables including stream velocity, bed form geometry, and the hydraulic conductivity and porosity of the sediment. Increasing the mass transfer coefficient increases the fraction of streamwater cycling through the hyporheic zone (per unit length of stream) but also decreases the time contaminants undergo first-order reaction in the sediment. As a consequence, small changes in stream state variables can significantly alter the performance of hyporheic zone treatment systems.

Factors that affect the hydraulic performance of raingardens: implications for design and maintenance.

Raingardens are becoming an increasingly popular technology for urban stormwater treatment. However, their hydraulic performance is known to reduce due to clogging from deposition of fine-grained sediments on the surface. This impacts on their capacity to treat urban runoff. It has been recently hypothesised that plants can help to mitigate the effect of surface clogging on infiltration. A conceptual model is therefore presented to better understand key processes, including those associated with plant cover, which influences surface infiltration mechanisms. Based on this understanding, a field evaluation was carried out to test the hypothesis that plants increase the infiltration rate, and to investigate factors that influence the deposition of fine-grained sediments within raingardens. The results show that infiltration rates around plants are statistically higher than bare areas, irrespective of the degree of surface clogging. This suggests that preferential flow pathways exist around plants. Sediment deposition processes are also influenced by design elements of raingardens such as the inlet configuration. These findings have implications for the design and maintenance of raingardens, in particular the design of the inlet configuration, as well as maintenance of the filter media surface layer and vegetation.

The potential for dams to impact lowland meandering river floodplain geomorphology.

The majority of the world's floodplains are dammed. Although some implications of dams for riverine ecology and for river channel morphology are well understood, there is less research on the impacts of dams on floodplain geomorphology. We review studies from dammed and undammed rivers and include influences on vertical and lateral accretion, meander migration and cutoff formation, avulsion, and interactions with floodplain vegetation. The results are synthesized into a conceptual model of the effects of dams on the major geomorphic influences on floodplain development. This model is used to assess the likely consequences of eight dam and flow regulation scenarios for floodplain geomorphology. Sediment starvation downstream of dams has perhaps the greatest potential to impact on floodplain development. Such effects will persist further downstream where tributary sediment inputs are relatively low and there is minimal buffering by alluvial sediment stores. We can identify several ways in which floodplains might potentially be affected by dams, with varying degrees of confidence, including a distinction between passive impacts (floodplain disconnection) and active impacts (changes in geomorphological processes and functioning). These active processes are likely to have more serious implications for floodplain function and emphasize both the need for future research and the need for an "environmental sediment regime" to operate alongside environmental flows.

Environmental flows can reduce the encroachment of terrestrial vegetation into river channels: a systematic literature review.

Encroachment of riparian vegetation into regulated river channels exerts control over fluvial processes, channel morphology, and aquatic ecology. Reducing encroachment of terrestrial vegetation is an oft-cited objective of environmental flow recommendations, but there has been no systematic assessment of the evidence for and against the widely-accepted cause-and-effect mechanisms involved. We systematically reviewed the literature to test whether environmental flows can reduce the encroachment of terrestrial vegetation into river channels. We quantified the level of support for five explicit cause-effect hypotheses drawn from a conceptual model of the effects of flow on vegetation. We found that greater inundation, variously expressed as changes in the area, depth, duration, frequency, seasonality, and volume of surface water, generally reduces riparian vegetation abundance in channels, but most studies did not investigate the specific mechanisms causing these changes. Those that did show that increased inundation results in increased mortality, but also increased germination. The evidence was insufficient to determine whether increased inundation decreases reproduction. Our results contribute to hydro-ecological understanding by using the published literature to test for general cause-effect relationships between flow regime and terrestrial vegetation encroachment. Reviews of this nature provide robust support for flow management, and are more defensible than expert judgement-based approaches. Overall, we predict that restoration of more natural flow regimes will reduce encroachment of terrestrial vegetation into regulated river channels, partly through increased mortality. Conversely, infrequent deliveries of environmental flows may actually increase germination and subsequent encroachment.