Access to Oncology Medicines in Canada: Consensus Forum for Recommendations for Improvement.

Patient access to new oncology drugs in Canada is only possible after navigating multiple sequential systemic checkpoints for national regulatory approval, health technology assessment (HTA) and collective government price negotiation. These steps delay access and prevent health care providers from being able to prescribe optimal therapy. Eighteen Canadian oncology clinicians from the medicine, nursing and pharmacy professions met to develop consensus recommendations for defining reasonable government performance standards around process and timeliness to improve Canadian cancer patients' access to best care. A modified Delphi methodology was used to identify consensus on 30 questions involving five themes: accountability, disparities, endpoints, timeliness, and cost-effectiveness. It was agreed that greater transparency is required across regulatory and HTA processes. Health professionals in oncology are frustrated for their patients because they are unable to deliver the modern guideline-supported therapies they want to provide due to delays in approval or funding. Canadian health care providers request improvements in timely access to life-saving therapeutics in line with other comparator countries. Clinicians expect urgent improvements in Canadian health systems to give our patients their best chance of survival.

Risk factors predicting the need for intensive care unit admission within forty-eight hours of emergency department presentation: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Patients admitted from the emergency department to the wards, who progress to a critically unwell state, may require expeditious admission to the intensive care unit. It can be argued that earlier recognition of such patients, to facilitate prompt transfer to intensive care, could be linked to more favourable clinical outcomes. Nevertheless, this can be clinically challenging, and there are currently no established evidence-based methods for predicting the need for intensive care in the future. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyse the emergency department data to describe the characteristics of patients who required an intensive care admission within 48 h of presentation. Secondly, we planned to test the feasibility of using this data to identify the associated risk factors for developing a predictive model. METHODS: We designed a retrospective case-control study. Cases were patients admitted to intensive care within 48 h of their emergency department presentation. Controls were patients who did not need an intensive care admission. Groups were matched based on age, gender, admission calendar month, and diagnosis. To identify the associated variables, we used a conditional logistic regression model. RESULTS: Compared to controls, cases were more likely to be obese, and smokers and had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular (39 [35.1%] vs 20 [18%], p = 0.004) and respiratory diagnoses (45 [40.5%] vs 25 [22.5%], p = 0.004). They received more medical emergency team reviews (53 [47.8%] vs 24 [21.6%], p < 0.001), and more patients had an acute resuscitation plan (31 [27.9%] vs 15 [13.5%], p = 0.008). The predictive model showed that having acute resuscitation plans, cardiovascular and respiratory diagnoses, and receiving medical emergency team reviews were strongly associated with having an intensive care admission within 48 h of presentation. CONCLUSIONS: Our study used emergency department data to provide a detailed description of patients who had an intensive care unit admission within 48 h of their presentation. It demonstrated the feasibility of using such data to identify the associated risk factors to develop a predictive model.

Population Survival Kinetics Derived from Clinical Trials of Potentially Curable Lung Cancers.

Using digitized data from progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival Kaplan-Meier curves, one can assess population survival kinetics through exponential decay nonlinear regression analyses. To demonstrate their utility, we analyzed PFS curves from published curative-intent trials of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) adjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant osimertinib in resected EGFR-mutant NSCLC (ADAURA trial), chemoradiotherapy for inoperable NSCLC, and limited small cell lung cancer (SCLC). These analyses permit assessment of log-linear curve shape and estimation of the proportion of patients cured, PFS half-lives for subpopulations destined to eventually relapse, and probability of eventual relapse in patients remaining progression-free at different time points. The proportion of patients potentially cured was 41% for adjuvant controls, 58% with adjuvant chemotherapy, 17% for ADAURA controls, not assessable with adjuvant osimertinib, 15% with chemoradiotherapy, and 12% for SCLC. Median PFS half-life for relapsing subpopulations was 11.9 months for adjuvant controls, 17.4 months with adjuvant chemotherapy, 24.4 months for ADAURA controls, not assessable with osimertinib, 9.3 months with chemoradiotherapy, and 10.7 months for SCLC. For those remaining relapse-free at 2 and 5 years, the cure probability was 74%/96% for adjuvant controls, 77%/93% with adjuvant chemotherapy, 51%/94% with chemoradiation, and 39%/87% with limited SCLC. Relatively easy population kinetic analyses add useful information.

Beyond Participation: Evaluating the Role of Patients in Designing Oncology Clinical Trials.

Historically, subject matter experts and healthcare professionals have played a pivotal role in driving oncology clinical trials. Although patients have been key participants, their deliberate and active contribution to the design and decision-making process has been limited. This scoping review aimed to examine the existing literature to scope the extent of active patient engagement in the design of oncology clinical trials and its corresponding influence on trial outcomes. We conducted a systematic search using two databases, namely MEDLINE (Ovid) and EMBASE, to identify relevant studies exploring patient engagement in cancer-related clinical research design. We identified seven studies that met the eligibility criteria. The studies highlighted the benefits of active patient involvement, such as improved recruitment strategies, and the attainment of more patient-centered trial outcomes. The influence of patient involvement varied from tangible developments like patient-friendly resources to indirect impacts like improved patient experiences and potentially higher adherence to trial intervention. The future of clinical trials should prioritize patients' values and perspectives, with regulatory bodies fostering these practices through clear guidelines. As the concept of patient centricity takes root in oncology research, the involvement of patients should evolve beyond mere participation.

RAPID framework for improved access to precision oncology for lethal disease: Results from a modified multi-round delphi study.

Introduction: Predictive oncology, germline technologies, and adaptive seamless trials are promising advances in the treatment of lethal cancers. Yet, access to these therapies is stymied by costly research, regulatory barriers, and structural inequalities worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: To address the need for a comprehensive strategy for rapid and more equitable access to breakthrough therapies for lethal cancers, we conducted a modified multi-round Delphi study with 70 experts in oncology, clinical trials, legal and regulatory processes, patient advocacy, ethics, drug development, and health policy in Canada, Europe, and the US. Semi-structured ethnographic interviews (n = 33) were used to identify issues and solutions that participants subsequently evaluated in a survey (n = 47). Survey and interview data were co-analyzed to refine topics for an in-person roundtable where recommendations for system change were deliberated and drafted by 26 participants. Results: Participants emphasized major issues in patient access to novel therapeutics including burdens of time, cost, and transportation required to complete eligibility requirements or to participate in trials. Only 12% of respondents reported satisfaction with current research systems, with "patient access to trials" and "delays in study approval" the topmost concerns. Conclusion: Experts agree that an equity-centered precision oncology communication model should be developed to improve access to adaptive seamless trials, eligibility reforms, and just-in-time trial activation. International advocacy groups are a key mobilizer of patient trust and should be involved at every stage of research and therapy approval. Our results also show that governments can promote better and faster access to life-saving therapeutics by engaging researchers and payors in an ecosystem approach that responds to the unique clinical, structural, temporal, and risk-benefit situations that patients with life-threatening cancers confront.

Costs of Next-Generation Sequencing Assays in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Micro-Costing Study.

Background: Next-generation sequencing (NGS) of tumor genomes has changed and improved cancer treatment over the past few decades. It can inform clinicians on the optimal therapeutic approach in many of the solid and hematologic cancers, including non-small lung cancer (NSCLC). Our study aimed to determine the costs of NGS assays for NSCLC diagnostics. Methods: We performed a micro-costing study of four NGS assays (Trusight Tumor 170 Kit (Illumina), Oncomine Focus (Thermo Fisher), QIAseq Targeted DNA Custom Panel and QIASeq Targeted RNAscan Custom Panel (Qiagen), and KAPA HyperPlus/SeqCap EZ (Roche)) at the StemCore Laboratories, the Ottawa Hospital, Canada. We used a time-and-motion approach to measure personnel time and a pre-defined questionnaire to collect resource utilization. The unit costs were based on market prices. The cost data were reported in 2019 Canadian dollars. Results: Based on a case throughput of 500 cases per year, the per-sample cost for TruSight Tumor 170 Kit, QIASeq Targeted DNA Custom Panel and QIASeq Targeted RNAscan Custom Panel, Oncomine Focus, and HyperPlus/SeqCap EZ were CAD 1778, CAD 599, CAD 1100 and CAD 1270, respectively. The key cost drivers were library preparation (34-60%) and sequencing (31-51%), followed by data analysis (6-13%) and administrative support (2-7%). Conclusions: Trusight Tumor 170 Kit was the most expensive NGS assay for NSCLC diagnostics; however, an economic evaluation is required to identify the most cost-effective NGS assay. Our study results could help inform decisions to select a robust platform for NSCLC diagnostics from fine needle aspirates, and future economic evaluations of the NGS platforms to guide treatment selections for NSCLC patients.

Cancer Clinic Redesign: Opportunities for Resource Optimization.

Ambulatory cancer centers face a fluctuating patient demand and deploy specialized personnel who have variable availability. This undermines operational stability through the misalignment of resources to patient needs, resulting in overscheduled clinics, budget deficits, and wait times exceeding provincial targets. We describe the deployment of a Learning Health System framework for operational improvements within the entire ambulatory center. Known methods of value stream mapping, operations research and statistical process control were applied to achieve organizational high performance that is data-informed, agile and adaptive. We transitioned from a fixed template model by an individual physician to a caseload management by disease site model that is realigned quarterly. We adapted a block schedule model for the ambulatory oncology clinic to align the regional demand for specialized services with optimized human and physical resources. We demonstrated an improved utilization of clinical space, increased weekly consistency and improved distribution of activity across the workweek. The increased value, represented as the ratio of monthly encounters per nursing worked hours, and the increased percentage of services delivered by full-time nurses were benefits realized in our cancer system. The creation of a data-informed demand capacity model enables the application of predictive analytics and business intelligence tools that will further enhance clinical responsiveness.

Access Denied? The Unintended Consequences of Pending Drug Pricing Rules.

The government of Canada now plans to bring into force new federal drug pricing regulations on 1 July 2022. We do not take issue with the goal of medication affordability, which is vital in healthcare the world over. Our concern is that the new guidelines are being implemented without due consideration for three major unintended consequences: regulatory changes will lower the number of clinical trials for new medications in Canada, fewer clinical trials will mean lower research and development investments, and changes will reduce patients' access to new medications. Access to effective medications is a cornerstone of healthcare for Canadian patients. As physicians, our duty to patient care demands that we tell the government to protect the right of Canadians to timely access to life-changing medicines.

Determinants of the Cancer Drug Funding Process in Canada.

Background: Canada has a publicly funded healthcare system with a complex drug funding process. After Health Canada approval to market a drug, the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pCODR) (now renamed the CADTH reimbursement review) makes a non-binding funding recommendation to the Canadian provinces (except Quebec), which each then decide whether the drug will be publicly funded. We identified the determinants of funding in this process. Methods: We analyzed drugs for advanced lung (n = 15), breast (n = 8), colorectal (CRC) (n = 7), melanoma (n = 10), and neuroendocrine (NET) (n = 3) cancers undergoing the funding decision process from 2011 to 2019. Determinants of funding assessed in the model included list price, cancer type, drug class, and pCODR recommendation. The primary outcome was the correlation between list price and time to funding (TTF: Health Canada approval to first provincial funding). Secondary outcomes included an exploratory analysis of predictors of drug funding. Results: We analyzed 43 drugs: targeted agents 72%, immunotherapy 20%, chemotherapy 7%. A total of 72% were funded in at least one province. Median TTF was 379 days (IQR 203−601). Median list price (28-day course) was CAD 8213 (IQR CAD 5391−9445). Higher list price was not correlated with TTF (correlation coefficient −0.20, p = 0.28). There was no association between list price and pCODR recommendation or the decision to fund in at least one province. A positive pCODR recommendation correlated with the provinces' funding decisions (p < 0.001), where 89% of drugs with a positive recommendation were funded and 100% of drugs with a negative recommendation were not funded. Tumor type was predictive of TTF (p < 0.001): CRC drugs were the slowest at a median of 2541 days (IQR 702−4379), and NETs were the quickest at a median of 0 days (IQR 0−502). Cancer type predicted decision to fund in at least one province (p = 0.005), with funding for 100% of NET drugs at the high end and 29% of CRC drugs at the low end. Drug class was predictive of TTF (p = 0.01): 465 days (IQR 245−702) for targeted agents, 443 days (IQR 298−587) for chemotherapy, and 339 days (IQR 164−446) for immunotherapy. Conclusions: Determinants of drug funding included cancer type, drug class, and pCODR recommendation but not list price. Factors other than cost were more heavily weighted in the funding decisions of cancer drugs in Canadian provinces.

Treatment Access, Health Economics, and the Wave of a Magic Wand.

New drugs are expensive, in part due to excessive drug development costs. Governments are trying to reduce drug prices. This can delay access to effective agents. A country's access to new drugs correlates with prices they agree to pay. After Health Canada approves a drug, the Canadian Agency for Drug and Technologies in Health (CADTH) assesses it. CADTH's approval is usually contingent on it costing ≤CAD 50,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. This value (unchanged from the 1970s) is inappropriately low. An inflation-adjusted CAD 50,000 1975 QALY should translate into a CAD 250,000 2021 QALY. CADTH's target also does not consider that drug development costs have risen much faster than inflation or that new precision therapies may only be used in small populations. In a separate process, proposals from the Patented Medicines Price Review Board (PMPRB) would decrease initial Canadian drug prices by 20%, but prices would fall further as sales increased, with ultimate price reductions of up to 80%. PMPRB claims its proposal would not reduce drug access, but multiple analyses strongly suggest otherwise. Government price controls target the symptom (high prices), not the disease. They translate into shortages without solving the problem. CADTH and PMPRB approaches both threaten access to effective drugs.

The need for speed in advanced non-small cell lung cancer: A population kinetics assessment.

BACKGROUND: Systemic therapy prolongs overall survival (OS) in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but diagnostic tests, staging and molecular profiling take time, and this can delay therapy initiation. OS approximates first-order kinetics. METHODS: We used OS of chemo-naive NSCLC patients on a placebo/best supportive care trial arm to estimate % of patients dying while awaiting therapy. We digitized survival curves from eight studies, calculated OS half-life, then estimated the proportion surviving after different times of interest (tn ) using the formula: X=exp-tn∗0.693/t1/2 , where EXP signifies exponential, * indicates multiplication, 0.693 is the natural log of 2, and t1/2 is the survival half-life in weeks. RESULTS: Across trials, the OS half-life for placebo/best supportive care in previously untreated NSCLC was 19.5 weeks. Hence, based on calculations using the formula above, if therapy were delayed by 1, 2, 3, or 4 weeks then 4%, 7%, 10%, and 13% of all patients, respectively, would die while awaiting treatment. Others would become too sick to consider therapy even if still alive. CONCLUSIONS: This quantifies why rapid baseline testing and prompt therapy initiation are important in advanced NSCLC. It also illustrates why screening procedures for clinical trial inclusion must be faster. Otherwise, it is potentially hazardous for a patient to be considered for a trial due to risk of death or deterioration while awaiting eligibility assessment. It is also important to not delay initiation of systemic therapy for procedures that add relatively little value, such as radiotherapy for small, asymptomatic brain metastases.

Zn Coordination and the Identity of the Halide Ancillary Ligand Dramatically Influence the Excited-State Dynamics and Bimolecular Reactions of 2,3-Di(pyridin-2-yl)benzo[g]quinoxaline.

The optical properties of coordination complexes with ligands containing nitrogen heterocycles have been extensively studied for decades. One subclass of these materials, metal complexes utilizing substituted pyrazines and quinoxalines as ligands, has been employed in a variety of photochemical applications ranging from photodynamic therapy to organic light-emitting diodes. A vast majority of this work focuses on characterization of the metal-to-ligand charge-transfer states in these metal complexes; however, literature reports rarely investigate the photophysics of the parent pyrazine or quinoxaline ligand or perform control experiments utilizing metal complexes that lack low-lying charge-transfer (CT) states in order to determine how metal-atom coordination influences the photophysical properties of the ligand. With this in mind, we examined the steady-state and time-resolved photophysics of 2,3-di(pyridin-2-yl)benzo[g]quinoxaline (dpb) and explored how the coordination of ZnX2 (X = Cl-, Br-, I-) affects the photophysical properties of dpb. In dpb, we find that the dominant mode of deactivation from the singlet excited state is intersystem crossing (ISC). Coordination of ZnX2 perturbs the relative energies of the ππ* and nπ* excited states of dpb, leading to drastically different rates of ISC as well as radiative and nonradiative decay in the [Zn(dpb)X2] complexes compared to dpb. These differences in the rates change the dominant singlet-excited-state decay pathway from ISC in dpb to a mixture of ISC and fluorescence in [Zn(dpb)Cl2] and [Zn(dpb)Br2] and to nonradiative decay in [Zn(dpb)I2]. Coordination of ZnX2 and the choice of the halide ligand also have profound effects on the rate constants for excited-state bimolecular reactions, including triplet-triplet annihilation and oxygen quenching. These results demonstrate that metal coordination, even in complexes lacking low-lying CT states, and the choice of the ancillary ligand can dramatically alter the photophysical properties of chromophores containing nitrogen heterocycles.

Accuracy and reproducibility of somatic point mutation calling in clinical-type targeted sequencing data.

BACKGROUND: Treating cancer depends in part on identifying the mutations driving each patient's disease. Many clinical laboratories are adopting high-throughput sequencing for assaying patients' tumours, applying targeted panels to formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour tissues to detect clinically-relevant mutations. While there have been some benchmarking and best practices studies of this scenario, much variant calling work focuses on whole-genome or whole-exome studies, with fresh or fresh-frozen tissue. Thus, definitive guidance on best choices for sequencing platforms, sequencing strategies, and variant calling for clinical variant detection is still being developed. METHODS: Because ground truth for clinical specimens is rarely known, we used the well-characterized Coriell cell lines GM12878 and GM12877 to generate data. We prepared samples to mimic as closely as possible clinical biopsies, including formalin fixation and paraffin embedding. We evaluated two well-known targeted sequencing panels, Illumina's TruSight 170 hybrid-capture panel and the amplification-based Oncomine Focus panel. Sequencing was performed on an Illumina NextSeq500 and an Ion Torrent PGM respectively. We performed multiple replicates of each assay, to test reproducibility. Finally, we applied four different freely-available somatic single-nucleotide variant (SNV) callers to the data, along with the vendor-recommended callers for each sequencing platform. RESULTS: We did not observe major differences in variant calling success within the regions that each panel covers, but there were substantial differences between callers. All had high sensitivity for true SNVs, but numerous and non-overlapping false positives. Overriding certain default parameters to make them consistent between callers substantially reduced discrepancies, but still resulted in high false positive rates. Intersecting results from multiple replicates or from different variant callers eliminated most false positives, while maintaining sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: Reproducibility and accuracy of targeted clinical sequencing results depend less on sequencing platform and panel than on variability between replicates and downstream bioinformatics. Differences in variant callers' default parameters are a greater influence on algorithm disagreement than other differences between the algorithms. Contrary to typical clinical practice, we recommend employing multiple variant calling pipelines and/or analyzing replicate samples, as this greatly decreases false positive calls.

Nanoscale Organization of a Platinum(II) Acetylide Cholesteric Liquid Crystal Molecular Glass for Photonics Applications.

The fabrication, molecular structure, and spectroscopy of a stable cholesteric liquid crystal platinum acetylide glass obtained from trans-Pt(PEt3)2(C≡C-C6H5-C≡N)(C≡C-C6H5-COO-Cholesterol), are described and designated as PE1-CN-Chol. Polarized optical microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and wide-angle X-ray scattering experiments show room temperature glassy/crystalline texture with crystal formation upon heating to 165 °C. Further heating results in conversion to cholesteric phase. Cooling to room temperature leads to the formation of a cholesteric liquid crystal glass. Scanning tunneling microscopy of a PE1-CN-Chol monolayer reveals self-assembly at the solid-liquid interface with an array of two molecules arranged in pairs, oriented head-to-head through the CN groups, giving rise to a lamella arrangement. The lamella structure obtained from molecular dynamics calculations shows a clear phase separation between the conjugated platinum acetylide and the hydrophobic cholesterol moiety with the lamellae separation distance being 4.0 nm. Ultrafast transient absorption and flash photolysis spectra of the glass show intersystem crossing to the triplet state occurring within 100 ps following excitation. The triplet decay time of the film compared to aerated and deoxygenated solutions is consistent with oxygen quenching at the film surface but not within the film. The high chromophore concentration, high glass thermal stability, and long triplet lifetime in air show that these materials have potential as nonlinear absorbing materials.

Potential insights from population kinetic assessment of progression-free survival curves.

Progression-free survival (PFS) curves follow first order kinetics on exponential decay nonlinear regression analysis (EDNLRA). Some exhibit 1-phase-decay, some have 2-phase-decay, some are convex. We digitized, performed EDNLRA and generated log-linear plots for 887 published PFS curves for incurable solid tumors treated with various systemic therapies. Proportion of curves fitting 2-phase-decay varied by therapy (p < 0.0001). For 13 therapies, >64 % of PFS curves had 2-phase-decay. This included epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors in unselected lung cancer patients (some with, some without mutations), immune checkpoint inhibitors, interferon, breast cancer hormonal therapies, and selected others, suggesting 2 distinct, potentially identifiable subpopulations with differing progression rates. For 22 other therapies, <25 % of PFS curves had 2-phase-decay. Only 1 therapy was in the mid-range. Small cell lung and colon carcinomas were particularly likely to yield highly convex curves (p < 0.006), probably from discontinuation of effective therapies. PFS curve shape may yield biological and clinical insights.

Synthesis and photophysics of gold(i) alkynyls bearing a benzothiazole-2,7-fluorenyl moiety: a comparative study analyzing influence of ancillary ligand, bridging moiety, and number of metal centers on photophysical properties.

Three new gold(i) alkynyl complexes (Au-ABTF(0-2)) containing a benzothiazole fluorenyl moiety, with either an organic phosphine or N-heterocyclic carbene as ancillary ligand, have been synthesized and photophysically characterized. All three complexes display highly structured ground-state absorption and luminescence spectra. Dual-luminescence is observed in all three complexes at room temperature in toluene after three freeze-pump-thaw cycles. The phosphine complexes (Au-ABTF(0-1)) exhibit similar photophysics with fluorescent quantum yields ∼0.40, triplet-state quantum yields ∼0.50, and fluorescent lifetimes ∼300 ps. The carbene complex Au-ABTF2 displays different behavior; having a fluorescent quantum yield of 0.23, a triplet-state quantum yield of 0.61, and a fluorescent lifetime near 200 ps, demonstrating that the ancillary ligand alters excited-state dynamics. The compounds exhibit strong (on the order of 105 M-1 cm-1) and positive excited-state absorption in both their singlet and triplet excited states spanning the visible region. Delayed fluorescence resulting from triplet-triplet annihilation is also observed in freeze-pump-thaw deaerated samples of all the complexes in toluene. DFT calculations (both static and time-resolved) agree with the photophysical data where phosphine complexes have slightly larger S1-T2 energy gaps (0.28 eV and 0.26 eV) relative to the carbene complex (0.21 eV). Comparison of the photophysical properties of Au-ABTF(0-2) to previously published dinuclear gold(i) complexes and mononuclear gold(i) aryl complexes bearing the same benzothiazole-2,7-fluorenyl moiety are made. Structure-property relationships regarding ancillary ligand, bridging moiety, and number of metal centers are drawn.

Quality of life with second or third line nab-paclitaxel-based regimens in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer.

Aim: Evaluate quality of life (QoL) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with second or third line nab-paclitaxel ± durvalumab. Patients & methods: Longitudinal QoL was assessed using Lung Cancer Symptom Scale, EuroQoL Five-Dimensions Five-Levels and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire 30-item core. Results: QoL was generally stable through eight treatment cycles (both arms). Clinically meaningful improvement from baseline was noted in Lung Cancer Symptom Scale (overall constitutional score and three-item index [nab-paclitaxel + durvalumab]) and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire 30-item core (global health status/QoL and emotional functioning [both arms] and pain [nab-paclitaxel + durvalumab]) analyses. EuroQoL Five-Dimensions Five-Levels domains were stable/improved or completely resolved at least once in 19-56% and 9-51% of patients, respectively. Conclusion: While QoL trends were promising, additional data are required to support these regimens in this setting.

A novel, more reliable approach to use of progression-free survival as a predictor of gain in overall survival: The Ottawa PFS Predictive Model.

Progression-free survival (PFS) hazard ratios and gain in median PFS are suggested predictors of overall survival (OS) gain (with gain defined as experimental arm minus control arm values). We assessed use of half-lives (time to progression/death of half remaining patients). We reviewed randomized trials from Journal of Clinical Oncology and New England Journal of Medicine, 01/2012-06/12/2017 (discovery series) and 01/01/2007-12/31/2011 (first validation series). If PFS or OS gains were significant, we used PFS/OS curve nonlinear regression analysis to estimate half-lives and defined "half-life gain" as experimental minus control arm half-life. With low crossover and significant PFS differences, PFS half-life gains ≥1.5 months had positive-predictive-values for OS gains ≥2 months of 79 % and 86 % and PFS half-life gains <1.5 months had negative-predictive-values for OS gains <2 months of 95 % and 75 %, in discovery and validation series, respectively. PFS half-life gains more reliably predicted OS gains than PFS hazard ratios or gains in median PFS. Findings were confirmed in a second validation series.