The effects of oil spills on marine fish: Implications of spatial variation in natural mortality.

The effects of oil spills on marine biological systems are of great concern, especially in regions with high biological production of harvested resources such as in the Northeastern Atlantic. The scientific studies of the impact of oil spills on fish stocks tend to ignore that spatial patterns of natural mortality may influence the magnitude of the impact over time. Here, we first illustrate how spatial variation in natural mortality may affect the population impact by considering a thought experiment. Second, we consider an empirically based example of Northeast Arctic cod to extend the concept to a realistic setting. Finally, we present a scenario-based investigation of how the degree of spatial variation in natural mortality affects the impact over a gradient of oil spill sizes. Including the effects of spatial variations in natural mortality tends to widen the impact distribution, hence increasing the probability of both high and low impact events.

A combination of hydrodynamical and statistical modelling reveals non-stationary climate effects on fish larvae distributions.

Biological processes and physical oceanography are often integrated in numerical modelling of marine fish larvae, but rarely in statistical analyses of spatio-temporal observation data. Here, we examine the relative contribution of inter-annual variability in spawner distribution, advection by ocean currents, hydrography and climate in modifying observed distribution patterns of cod larvae in the Lofoten-Barents Sea. By integrating predictions from a particle-tracking model into a spatially explicit statistical analysis, the effects of advection and the timing and locations of spawning are accounted for. The analysis also includes other environmental factors: temperature, salinity, a convergence index and a climate threshold determined by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We found that the spatial pattern of larvae changed over the two climate periods, being more upstream in low NAO years. We also demonstrate that spawning distribution and ocean circulation are the main factors shaping this distribution, while temperature effects are different between climate periods, probably due to a different spatial overlap of the fish larvae and their prey, and the consequent effect on the spatial pattern of larval survival. Our new methodological approach combines numerical and statistical modelling to draw robust inferences from observed distributions and will be of general interest for studies of many marine fish species.

On hidden heterogeneity in directional asymmetry--can systematic bias be avoided?

Directional asymmetry (DA) biases the analysis of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) mainly because among-individual differences in the predisposition for DA are difficult to detect. However, we argue that systematic bias mainly results from predictable associations between signed right-left asymmetry and other factors, i.e. from systematic variation in DA. We here demonstrate methods to test and correct for this, by analysing bilateral asymmetry in size and shape of an irregular sea urchin. Notably, in this model system, DA depended significantly on body length and geographic origin, although mean signed asymmetry (mean DA) was not significant in the sample as a whole. In contrast to the systematic variation in DA, undetectable, random variability in the underlying DA mainly leads to reduced statistical power. Using computer simulations, we show that this loss of power is probably slight in most circumstances. We recommend future studies on FA to routinely test and correct for not only as yet for mean DA, but also for systematic variation in DA.