Long-term exposure to air pollution and chronic kidney disease-associated mortality-Results from the pooled cohort of the European multicentre ELAPSE-study.

Despite the known link between air pollution and cause-specific mortality, its relation to chronic kidney disease (CKD)-associated mortality is understudied. Therefore, we investigated the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and CKD-related mortality in a large multicentre population-based European cohort. Cohort data were linked to local mortality registry data. CKD-death was defined as ICD10 codes N18-N19 or corresponding ICD9 codes. Mean annual exposure at participant's home address was determined with fine spatial resolution exposure models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3), particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) and several elemental constituents of PM2.5. Cox regression models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, calendar year of recruitment, smoking status, marital status, employment status and neighbourhood mean income. Over a mean follow-up time of 20.4 years, 313 of 289,564 persons died from CKD. Associations were positive for PM2.5 (hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.31 (1.03-1.66) per 5 µg/m3, BC (1.26 (1.03-1.53) per 0.5 × 10- 5/m), NO2 (1.13 (0.93-1.38) per 10 µg/m3) and inverse for O3 (0.71 (0.54-0.93) per 10 µg/m3). Results were robust to further covariate adjustment. Exclusion of the largest sub-cohort contributing 226 cases, led to null associations. Among the elemental constituents, Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S and Zn, representing different sources including traffic, biomass and oil burning and secondary pollutants, were associated with CKD-related mortality. In conclusion, our results suggest an association between air pollution from different sources and CKD-related mortality.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of gastric and the upper aerodigestive tract cancers in a pooled European cohort: The ELAPSE project.

Air pollution has been shown to significantly impact human health including cancer. Gastric and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers are common and increased risk has been associated with smoking and occupational exposures. However, the association with air pollution remains unclear. We pooled European subcohorts (N = 287,576 participants for gastric and N = 297,406 for UADT analyses) and investigated the association between residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone in the warm season (O3w) with gastric and UADT cancer. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. During 5,305,133 and 5,434,843 person-years, 872 gastric and 1139 UADT incident cancer cases were observed, respectively. For gastric cancer, we found no association with PM2.5, NO2 and BC while for UADT the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.33) per 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, 1.19 (1.08-1.30) per 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2, 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 0.5 × 10-5 m-1 increase in BC and 0.81 (0.72-0.92) per 10 µg/m3 increase in O3w. We found no association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of gastric cancer, while for long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2 and BC increased incidence of UADT cancer was observed.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of leukemia and lymphoma in a pooled European cohort.

Leukemia and lymphoma are the two most common forms of hematologic malignancy, and their etiology is largely unknown. Pathophysiological mechanisms suggest a possible association with air pollution, but little empirical evidence is available. We aimed to investigate the association between long-term residential exposure to outdoor air pollution and risk of leukemia and lymphoma. We pooled data from four cohorts from three European countries as part of the "Effects of Low-level Air Pollution: a Study in Europe" (ELAPSE) collaboration. We used Europe-wide land use regression models to assess annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) at residences. We also estimated concentrations of PM2.5 elemental components: copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn); sulfur (S); nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si) and potassium (K). We applied Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the associations. Among the study population of 247,436 individuals, 760 leukemia and 1122 lymphoma cases were diagnosed during 4,656,140 person-years of follow-up. The results showed a leukemia hazard ratio (HR) of 1.13 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.01-1.26) per 10 µg/m3 NO2, which was robust in two-pollutant models and consistent across the four cohorts and according to smoking status. Sex-specific analyses suggested that this association was confined to the male population. Further, the results showed increased lymphoma HRs for PM2.5 (HR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.02-1.34) and potassium content of PM2.5, which were consistent in two-pollutant models and according to sex. Our results suggest that air pollution at the residence may be associated with adult leukemia and lymphoma.

Long-term exposure to several constituents and sources of PM2.5 is associated with incidence of upper aerodigestive tract cancers but not gastric cancer: Results from the large pooled European cohort of the ELAPSE project.

It is unclear whether cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) and gastric cancer are related to air pollution, due to few studies with inconsistent results. The effects of particulate matter (PM) may vary across locations due to different source contributions and related PM compositions, and it is not clear which PM constituents/sources are most relevant from a consideration of overall mass concentration alone. We therefore investigated the association of UADT and gastric cancers with PM2.5 elemental constituents and sources components indicative of different sources within a large multicentre population based epidemiological study. Cohorts with at least 10 cases per cohort led to ten and eight cohorts from five countries contributing to UADT- and gastric cancer analysis, respectively. Outcome ascertainment was based on cancer registry data or data of comparable quality. We assigned home address exposure to eight elemental constituents (Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S, Si, V and Zn) estimated from Europe-wide exposure models, and five source components identified by absolute principal component analysis (APCA). Cox regression models were run with age as time scale, stratified for sex and cohort and adjusted for relevant individual and neighbourhood level confounders. We observed 1139 UADT and 872 gastric cancer cases during a mean follow-up of 18.3 and 18.5 years, respectively. UADT cancer incidence was associated with all constituents except K in single element analyses. After adjustment for NO2, only Ni and V remained associated with UADT. Residual oil combustion and traffic source components were associated with UADT cancer persisting in the multiple source model. No associations were found for any of the elements or source components and gastric cancer incidence. Our results indicate an association of several PM constituents indicative of different sources with UADT but not gastric cancer incidence with the most robust evidence for traffic and residual oil combustion.

Long-Term Exposure to Low-Level PM2.5 and Mortality: Investigation of Heterogeneity by Harmonizing Analyses in Large Cohort Studies in Canada, United States, and Europe.

BACKGROUND: Studies across the globe generally reported increased mortality risks associated with particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5µm (PM2.5) exposure with large heterogeneity in the magnitude of reported associations and the shape of concentration-response functions (CRFs). We aimed to evaluate the impact of key study design factors (including confounders, applied exposure model, population age, and outcome definition) on PM2.5 effect estimates by harmonizing analyses on three previously published large studies in Canada [Mortality-Air Pollution Associations in Low Exposure Environments (MAPLE), 1991-2016], the United States (Medicare, 2000-2016), and Europe [Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE), 2000-2016] as much as possible. METHODS: We harmonized the study populations to individuals 65+ years of age, applied the same satellite-derived PM2.5 exposure estimates, and selected the same sets of potential confounders and the same outcome. We evaluated whether differences in previously published effect estimates across cohorts were reduced after harmonization among these factors. Additional analyses were conducted to assess the influence of key design features on estimated risks, including adjusted covariates and exposure assessment method. A combined CRF was assessed with meta-analysis based on the extended shape-constrained health impact function (eSCHIF). RESULTS: More than 81 million participants were included, contributing 692 million person-years of follow-up. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause mortality associated with a 5-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 were 1.039 (1.032, 1.046) in MAPLE, 1.025 (1.021, 1.029) in Medicare, and 1.041 (1.014, 1.069) in ELAPSE. Applying a harmonized analytical approach marginally reduced difference in the observed associations across the three studies. Magnitude of the association was affected by the adjusted covariates, exposure assessment methodology, age of the population, and marginally by outcome definition. Shape of the CRFs differed across cohorts but generally showed associations down to the lowest observed PM2.5 levels. A common CRF suggested a monotonically increased risk down to the lowest exposure level. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12141.

Multiple myeloma risk in relation to long-term air pollution exposure - A pooled analysis of four European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a growing concern worldwide, with significant impacts on human health. Multiple myeloma is a type of blood cancer with increasing incidence. Studies have linked air pollution exposure to various types of cancer, including leukemia and lymphoma, however, the relationship with multiple myeloma incidence has not been extensively investigated. METHODS: We pooled four European cohorts (N = 234,803) and assessed the association between residential exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particles (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and ozone (O3) and multiple myeloma. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. RESULTS: During 4,415,817 person-years of follow-up (average 18.8 years), we observed 404 cases of multiple myeloma. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 0.99 (0.84, 1.16) per 10 µg/m³ NO2, 1.04 (0.82, 1.33) per 5 µg/m³ PM2.5, 0.99 (0.84, 1.18) per 0.5 10-5 m-1 BCE, and 1.11 (0.87, 1.41) per 10 µg/m³ O3. CONCLUSIONS: We did not observe an association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of multiple myeloma.

Long-term air pollution exposure and malignant intracranial tumours of the central nervous system: a pooled analysis of six European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for malignant tumours of the central nervous system (CNS) are largely unknown. METHODS: We pooled six European cohorts (N = 302,493) and assessed the association between residential exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particles (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3) and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) and malignant intracranial CNS tumours defined according to the International Classification of Diseases ICD-9/ICD-10 codes 192.1/C70.0, 191.0-191.9/C71.0-C71.9, 192.0/C72.2-C72.5. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. RESULTS: During 5,497,514 person-years of follow-up (average 18.2 years), we observed 623 malignant CNS tumours. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.07 (0.95, 1.21) per 10 µg/m³ NO2, 1.17 (0.96, 1.41) per 5 µg/m³ PM2.5, 1.10 (0.97, 1.25) per 0.5 10-5m-1 BC, and 0.99 (0.84, 1.17) per 10 µg/m³ O3. CONCLUSIONS: We observed indications of an association between exposure to NO2, PM2.5, and BC and tumours of the CNS. The PM elements were not consistently associated with CNS tumour incidence.

Breast Cancer Incidence in Relation to Long-Term Low-Level Exposure to Air Pollution in the ELAPSE Pooled Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Established risk factors for breast cancer include genetic disposition, reproductive factors, hormone therapy, and lifestyle-related factors such as alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, smoking, and obesity. More recently a role of environmental exposures, including air pollution, has also been suggested. The aim of this study, was to investigate the relationship between long-term air pollution exposure and breast cancer incidence. METHODS: We conducted a pooled analysis among six European cohorts (n = 199,719) on the association between long-term residential levels of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particles (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and ozone in the warm season (O3) and breast cancer incidence in women. The selected cohorts represented the lower range of air pollutant concentrations in Europe. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. RESULTS: During 3,592,885 person-years of follow-up, we observed a total of 9,659 incident breast cancer cases. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed a HR (95% confidence interval) of 1.03 (1.00-1.06) per 10 µg/m³ NO2, 1.06 (1.01-1.11) per 5 µg/m³ PM2.5, 1.03 (0.99-1.06) per 0.5 10-5 m-1 BC, and 0.98 (0.94-1.01) per 10 µg/m³ O3. The effect estimates were most pronounced in the group of middle-aged women (50-54 years) and among never smokers. CONCLUSIONS: The results were in support of an association between especially PM2.5 and breast cancer. IMPACT: The findings of this study suggest a role of exposure to NO2, PM2.5, and BC in development of breast cancer.

Long-term air pollution exposure and Parkinson's disease mortality in a large pooled European cohort: An ELAPSE study.

BACKGROUND: The link between exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases is well established, while evidence on neurodegenerative disorders including Parkinson's Disease (PD) remains limited. OBJECTIVE: We examined the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and PD mortality in seven European cohorts. METHODS: Within the project 'Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe' (ELAPSE), we pooled data from seven cohorts among six European countries. Annual mean residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), and ozone (O3), as well as 8 PM2.5 components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulphur, silicon, vanadium, zinc), for 2010 were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land use regression models. PD mortality was defined as underlying cause of death being either PD, secondary Parkinsonism, or dementia in PD. We applied Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and PD mortality, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of 271,720 cohort participants, 381 died from PD during 19.7 years of follow-up. In single-pollutant analyses, we observed positive associations between PD mortality and PM2.5 (hazard ratio per 5 µg/m3: 1.25; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.55), NO2 (1.13; 0.95-1.34 per 10 µg/m3), and BC (1.12; 0.94-1.34 per 0.5 × 10-5m-1), and a negative association with O3 (0.74; 0.58-0.94 per 10 µg/m3). Associations of PM2.5, NO2, and BC with PD mortality were linear without apparent lower thresholds. In two-pollutant models, associations with PM2.5 remained robust when adjusted for NO2 (1.24; 0.95-1.62) or BC (1.28; 0.96-1.71), whereas associations with NO2 or BC attenuated to null. O3 associations remained negative, but no longer statistically significant in models with PM2.5. We detected suggestive positive associations with the potassium component of PM2.5. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to PM2.5, at levels well below current EU air pollution limit values, may contribute to PD mortality.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide in a large pooled European cohort: ELAPSE study.

Ambient air pollution is an established risk factor for premature mortality from chronic cardiovascular, respiratory and metabolic diseases, while evidence on neurodegenerative diseases and psychiatric disorders remains limited. We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide in seven European cohorts. Within the multicenter project 'Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe' (ELAPSE), we pooled data from seven European cohorts from six countries. Based on the residential addresses, annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3), and 8 PM2.5 components were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land-use regression models. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide. Of 271,720 participants, 900 died from dementia, 241 from psychiatric disorders, and 164 from suicide, during a mean follow-up of 19.7 years. In fully adjusted models, we observed positive associations of NO2 (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.38; 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.13, 1.70 per 10 µg/m3), PM2.5 (HR = 1.29; 95 % CI: 0.98, 1.71 per 5 µg/m3), and BC (HR = 1.37; 95 % CI: 1.11, 1.69 per 0.5 × 10-5/m) with psychiatric disorders mortality, as well as with suicide (NO2: HR = 1.13 [95 % CI: 0.92, 1.38]; PM2.5: HR = 1.19 [95 % CI: 0.76, 1.87]; BC: HR = 1.08 [95 % CI: 0.87, 1.35]), and no association with dementia mortality. We did not detect any positive associations of O3 and 8 PM2.5 components with any of the three mortality outcomes. Long-term exposure to NO2, PM2.5, and BC may lead to premature mortality from psychiatric disorders and suicide.

Long term exposure to air pollution and kidney parenchyma cancer - Effects of low-level air pollution: a Study in Europe (ELAPSE).

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter (PM) is classified as a group 1 human carcinogen. Previous experimental studies suggest that particles in diesel exhaust induce oxidative stress, inflammation and DNA damage in kidney cells, but the evidence from population studies linking air pollution to kidney cancer is limited. METHODS: We pooled six European cohorts (N = 302,493) to assess the association of residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3) and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) with cancer of the kidney parenchyma. The main exposure model was developed for year 2010. We defined kidney parenchyma cancer according to the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th Revision codes 189.0 and C64. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. RESULTS: The participants were followed from baseline (1985-2005) to 2011-2015. A total of 847 cases occurred during 5,497,514 person-years of follow-up (average 18.2 years). Median (5-95%) exposure levels of NO2, PM2.5, BC and O3 were 24.1 µg/m3 (12.8-39.2), 15.3 µg/m3 (8.6-19.2), 1.6 10-5 m-1 (0.7-2.1), and 87.0 µg/m3 (70.3-97.4), respectively. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92, 1.15) per 10 µg/m³ NO2, 1.04 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.21) per 5 µg/m³ PM2.5, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.11) per 0.5 10-5 m-1 BCE, and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) per 10 µg/m³ O3. We did not find associations between any of the elemental components of PM2.5 and cancer of the kidney parenchyma. CONCLUSION: We did not observe an association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of kidney parenchyma cancer.

Long-Term Exposure to Source-Specific Fine Particles and Mortality─A Pooled Analysis of 14 European Cohorts within the ELAPSE Project.

We assessed mortality risks associated with source-specific fine particles (PM2.5) in a pooled European cohort of 323,782 participants. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for source-specific PM2.5 identified through a source apportionment analysis. Exposure to 2010 annual average concentrations of source-specific PM2.5 components was assessed at baseline residential addresses. The source apportionment resulted in the identification of five sources: traffic, residual oil combustion, soil, biomass and agriculture, and industry. In single-source analysis, all identified sources were significantly positively associated with increased natural mortality risks. In multisource analysis, associations with all sources attenuated but remained statistically significant with traffic, oil, and biomass and agriculture. The highest association per interquartile increase was observed for the traffic component (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04 and 1.08 per 2.86 µg/m3 increase) across five identified sources. On a 1 µg/m3 basis, the residual oil-related PM2.5 had the strongest association (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.05 and 1.22), which was substantially higher than that for generic PM2.5 mass, suggesting that past estimates using the generic PM2.5 exposure response function have underestimated the potential clean air health benefits of reducing fossil-fuel combustion. Source-specific associations with cause-specific mortality were in general consistent with findings of natural mortality.

Exposure to surrounding greenness and natural-cause and cause-specific mortality in the ELAPSE pooled cohort.

BACKGROUND: The majority of studies have shown higher greenness exposure associated with reduced mortality risks, but few controlled for spatially correlated air pollution and traffic noise exposures. We aim to address this research gap in the ELAPSE pooled cohort. METHODS: Mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in a 300-m grid cell and 1-km radius were assigned to participants' baseline home addresses as a measure of surrounding greenness exposure. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association of NDVI exposure with natural-cause and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for a number of potential confounders including socioeconomic status and lifestyle factors at individual and area-levels. We further assessed the associations between greenness exposure and mortality after adjusting for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and road traffic noise. RESULTS: The pooled study population comprised 327,388 individuals who experienced 47,179 natural-cause deaths during 6,374,370 person-years of follow-up. The mean NDVI in the pooled cohort was 0.33 (SD 0.1) and 0.34 (SD 0.1) in the 300-m grid and 1-km buffer. In the main fully adjusted model, 0.1 unit increment of NDVI inside 300-m grid was associated with 5% lower risk of natural-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.95 (95% CI: 0.94, 0.96)). The associations attenuated after adjustment for air pollution [HR (95% CI): 0.97 (0.96, 0.98) adjusted for PM2.5; 0.98 (0.96, 0.99) adjusted for NO2]. Additional adjustment for traffic noise hardly affected the associations. Consistent results were observed for NDVI within 1-km buffer. After adjustment for air pollution, NDVI was inversely associated with diabetes, respiratory and lung cancer mortality, yet with wider 95% confidence intervals. No association with cardiovascular mortality was found. CONCLUSIONS: We found a significant inverse association between surrounding greenness and natural-cause mortality, which remained after adjusting for spatially correlated air pollution and traffic noise.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and bladder cancer incidence in a pooled European cohort: the ELAPSE project.

BACKGROUND: The evidence linking ambient air pollution to bladder cancer is limited and mixed. METHODS: We assessed the associations of bladder cancer incidence with residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3) and eight PM2.5 elemental components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) in a pooled cohort (N = 302,493). Exposures were primarily assessed based on 2010 measurements and back-extrapolated to the baseline years. We applied Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level potential confounders. RESULTS: During an average of 18.2 years follow-up, 967 bladder cancer cases occurred. We observed a positive though statistically non-significant association between PM2.5 and bladder cancer incidence. Hazard Ratios (HR) were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-1.27) per 5 µg/m3 for 2010 exposure and 1.06 (95% CI: 0.99-1.14) for baseline exposure. Effect estimates for NO2, BC and O3 were close to unity. A positive association was observed with PM2.5 zinc (HR 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00-1.16 per 10 ng/m3). CONCLUSIONS: We found suggestive evidence of an association between long-term PM2.5 mass exposure and bladder cancer, strengthening the evidence from the few previous studies. The association with zinc in PM2.5 suggests the importance of industrial emissions.

Associations between the fast-food environment and diabetes prevalence in the Netherlands: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a major health concern and is influenced by lifestyle, which can be affected by the neighbourhood environment. Specifically, a fast-food environment can influence eating behaviours and thus diabetes prevalence. Therefore, our aim was to assess the relationship between fast-food environment and diabetes prevalence for urban and rural environments in the Netherlands, using multiple indicators and buffer sizes. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, data on a nationwide sample of adults older than 19 years in the Netherlands were taken from the 2012 Dutch national health survey (from Public Health Monitor), in which participants were surveyed on topics related to health and lifestyle behaviour. Fast-food outlet exposures were determined within street-network buffers of 100 m, 400 m, 1000 m, and 1500 m around residential addresses. For each of these buffers, three indicators were calculated: presence (yes or no) of fast-food outlets, fast-food outlet density, and ratio. Logistic regression analyses were carried out to assess associations of these indicators with diabetes, adjusting for potential confounders and stratifying into urban and rural areas. FINDINGS: 387 195 adults were surveyed, 284 793 of whom were included in the study. 22 951 (8%) reported having diabetes. Fast-food outlet exposures were positively associated with diabetes prevalence. We did not observe large differences between urban and rural areas. The effect estimates were small for all indicators. For example, in the 400 m buffer in the urban environment, the odds ratio (OR) for having diabetes among people with a fast-food outlet present compared with those without, was 1·006 (95% CI 1·003-1·009) using the presence indicator. The presence indicator showed higher effect estimates and the most consistent results across buffer sizes (ranging from OR 1·005 [95% CI 1·000-1·010] with the 1000 m buffer to 1·016 [1·005-1·028] with the 1500 m buffer in urban areas and from 1·002 [0·998-1·005] with the 1500 m buffer to 1·009 [1·006-1·018] with the 100 m buffer in rural areas) compared with the density and ratio indicators. INTERPRETATION: The results confirm the evidence that the fast-food outlet environment is a diabetes risk factor. All data included were at the individual level and the variability was ensured by the spatial distribution and number of participants. In this study, we only accounted for residential exposure because we were unable to account for exposure outside the residential environment. The findings of this study encourage local governments to consider the potential adverse effects of fast-food exposures and aim at minimising unhealthy food access. FUNDING: Global Geo Health Data Centre, Utrecht University, Netherlands.

Long-term exposure to fine particle elemental components and mortality in Europe: Results from six European administrative cohorts within the ELAPSE project.

Evidence for the association between long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter components and mortality from natural causes is sparse and inconsistent. We evaluated this association in six large administrative cohorts in the framework of the Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) project. We analyzed data from country-wide administrative cohorts in Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland and in Rome (Italy). Annual 2010 mean concentrations of copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn) in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were estimated using 100 × 100 m Europe-wide hybrid land use regression models assigned to the participants' residential addresses. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazard models controlling for area- and individual-level covariates to evaluate associations with natural mortality. Two pollutant models adjusting for PM2.5 total mass or nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were also applied. We pooled cohort-specific estimates using a random effects meta-analysis. We included almost 27 million participants contributing more than 240 million person-years. All components except Zn were significantly associated with natural mortality [pooled Hazard Ratios (HRs) (95% CI): 1.037 (1.014, 1.060) per 5 ng/m3 Cu; 1.069 (1.031, 1.108) per 100 ng/m3 Fe; 1.039 (1.018, 1.062) per 50 ng/m3 K; 1.024 (1.006, 1.043) per 1 ng/m3 Ni; 1.036 (1.016, 1.057) per 200 ng/m3 S; 1.152 (1.048, 1.266) per 100 ng/m3 Si; 1.020 (1.006, 1.034) per 2 ng/m3 V]. Only K and Si were robust to PM2.5 or NO2 adjustment [pooled HRs (95% CI) per 50 ng/m3 in K: 1.025 (1.008, 1.044), 1.020 (0.999, 1.042) and per 100 ng/m3 in Si: 1.121 (1.039, 1.209), 1.068 (1.022, 1.117) adjusted for PM2.5 and NO2 correspondingly]. Our findings indicate an association of natural mortality with most components, which was reduced after adjustment for PM2.5 and especially NO2.

Long term exposure to low level air pollution and mortality in eight European cohorts within the ELAPSE project: pooled analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of eight cohorts. SETTING: Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality. RESULTS: Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 µg/m3 in PM2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 µg/m3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 µg/m3 an increase of 5 µg/m3 in PM2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and liver cancer incidence in six European cohorts.

Particulate matter air pollution and diesel engine exhaust have been classified as carcinogenic for lung cancer, yet few studies have explored associations with liver cancer. We used six European adult cohorts which were recruited between 1985 and 2005, pooled within the "Effects of low-level air pollution: A study in Europe" (ELAPSE) project, and followed for the incidence of liver cancer until 2011 to 2015. The annual average exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), particulate matter with diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5 ), black carbon (BC), warm-season ozone (O3 ), and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, zinc, sulfur, nickel, vanadium, silicon, and potassium) were estimated by European-wide hybrid land-use regression models at participants' residential addresses. We analyzed the association between air pollution and liver cancer incidence by Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders. Of 330 064 cancer-free adults at baseline, 512 developed liver cancer during a mean follow-up of 18.1 years. We observed positive linear associations between NO2 (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: 1.17, 1.02-1.35 per 10 µg/m3 ), PM2.5 (1.12, 0.92-1.36 per 5 µg/m3 ), and BC (1.15, 1.00-1.33 per 0.5 10-5 /m) and liver cancer incidence. Associations with NO2 and BC persisted in two-pollutant models with PM2.5 . Most components of PM2.5 were associated with the risk of liver cancer, with the strongest associations for sulfur and vanadium, which were robust to adjustment for PM2.5 or NO2 . Our study suggests that ambient air pollution may increase the risk of liver cancer, even at concentrations below current EU standards.

Long-term exposure to low-level air pollution and incidence of asthma: the ELAPSE project.

BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked to childhood-onset asthma, although evidence is still insufficient. Within the multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE), we examined the associations of long-term exposures to particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and black carbon (BC) with asthma incidence in adults. METHODS: We pooled data from three cohorts in Denmark and Sweden with information on asthma hospital diagnoses. The average concentrations of air pollutants in 2010 were modelled by hybrid land-use regression models at participants' baseline residential addresses. Associations of air pollution exposures with asthma incidence were explored with Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of 98 326 participants, 1965 developed asthma during a mean follow-up of 16.6 years. We observed associations in fully adjusted models with hazard ratios of 1.22 (95% CI 1.04-1.43) per 5 µg·m-3 for PM2.5, 1.17 (95% CI 1.10-1.25) per 10 µg·m-3 for NO2 and 1.15 (95% CI 1.08-1.23) per 0.5×10-5 m-1 for BC. Hazard ratios were larger in cohort subsets with exposure levels below the European Union and US limit values and possibly World Health Organization guidelines for PM2.5 and NO2. NO2 and BC estimates remained unchanged in two-pollutant models with PM2.5, whereas PM2.5 estimates were attenuated to unity. The concentration-response curves showed no evidence of a threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to air pollution, especially from fossil fuel combustion sources such as motorised traffic, was associated with adult-onset asthma, even at levels below the current limit values.