Aging related obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus suppress neuromuscular communication and aggravate skeletal muscle dysfunction in rhesus monkeys.

Age-related functional deterioration in skeletal muscle raises the risk for falls, disability, and mortality in the elderly, particularly in obese people or those with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). However, the response of the skeletal muscle to transitioning from obesity to diabetes remains poorly defined, despite that obesity is classified as a stage of pre-diabetes. We screened and selected spontaneously obese and diabetic rhesus monkeys and examined altered protein expression in skeletal muscle of healthy aging (CON), obesity aging (OB), and type 2 diabetes mellitus aging (T2D) rhesus monkeys using Tandem Mass Tags (TMT)-based quantitative proteomic analysis. In total, we identified 142 differentially expressed proteins. Muscle-nerve communication proteins were firstly suppressed at obese-stage. With the disintegration of skeletal muscle, mitochondrial complex I and other energy homeostasis relate proteins were significantly disordered at T2D stage. Indicating that aging related obesity suppressed muscle-nerve communication and contribute to T2D related functional deterioration of skeletal muscles in elderly rhesus monkeys. Some alterations of muscular functional regulator are detected in both obesity and T2D samples, suggesting some T2D related skeletal muscular hypofunctions are occurring at obesity or pre-obesity stage. Muscle-nerve communication proteins and muscular function related proteins could be potential therapy target or early diagnose marker of for skeletal muscular hypofunctions in aging obesity populations.

Early predictor for differentiation syndrome in newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukaemia patients treated with single-agent arsenic trioxide.

Differentiation syndrome (DS) is the second leading cause of death in acute promyelocytic leukaemia (APL) patients. Few studies have tested predictors of DS events. This study aimed to identify optimized predictors of DS events related to APL. The data of 298 consecutive patients who were newly diagnosed with APL between December 2012 and June 2023 were retrospectively investigated. A systematic review of computer-based patient medical records was conducted to obtain clinical data, including baseline characteristics, routine blood examination findings, biochemical indices and clinical manifestations of DS. Among the 298 patients, 158 were classified into the no-DS group, while 140 had DS. Compared with those of patients without DS, the peripheral blast count, age, and WBC count at each time point were significantly different in patients with DS (P < 0.05 for all time points). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) revealed that WBC Double (Coeff. 0.442, P = 0.000) and WBCPeak (Coeff. 0.879, P = 0.000) were independent risk factors for DS. The frequencies of clinical manifestations of unexplained fever (P = 0.003), dyspnoea (P = 0.002), weight gain of more than 5 kg (P = 0.006), pleural effusion (P = 0.001), pulmonary infiltrates (P < 0.001), pericardial effusion (P = 0.002) and renal failure (P = 0.006) were considerably lower in moderate DS patients than in severe DS patients. The WBCDouble occurs earlier than the WBCpeak occurrence, so WBC Double might be a new indicator of DS.

[Effect of Circulating Plasma Cells on the Prognosis of Patients with Multiple Myeloma].

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the effect of circulating plasma cells(CPC) on the prognosis of patients with multiple myeloma(MM) in the era of new drugs, and to explore the new definition standard of primary plasma cell leukemia(pPCL). METHODS: The clinical data of 321 patients with newly diagnosed MM and 21 patients with pPCL admitted to our hospital from January 2014 to May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the proportion of CPC in peripheral blood smears, all patients were divided into 4 groups: CPC 0% group(211 cases), CPC 1%-4% group(69 cases), CPC 5%-19% group(41 cases) and CPC≥20% group(21 cases). The clinical features of patients in each group were compared and the prognosis fators was analyzed. RESULTS: The median OS of the four groups were 44.5,21.3,24.6 and 12.8 months, respectively. Among them, 295 patients(86.3%) were treated with new drugs, and the median OS of the four groups were not reached, 26.7, 24.6 and 14.9 months, respectively. As the survival curves of CPC 5%-19% group and CPC≥20% group were similar, the patients were divided into CPC<5% group and CPC≥5% group, the median OS of CPC<5% group was better than that in CPC≥5% (43.5 vs 22.3 months, P<0.001). In addition, the median OS of patients in the CPC 1%-4% group was also significantly lower than that in the CPC 0% group and similar to that in the CPC≥5% group. Multivariate analysis showed that 1%-4% CPC was an independent risk factor for the OS of patients with CPC<5%. The patients with CPC<5% were stratified by R-ISS staging, and the OS of R-ISS stage Ⅰ or stage Ⅱ with 1%-4% CPC was similar to that of R-ISS stage Ⅲ. The newly defined pPCL patients showed increased tumor load and obvious invasive characteristics. Multivariate analysis showed no independent prognostic factors for pPCL, and high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities(HRCA) had no significant effect on the prognosis. CONCLUSION: The validity of IMWG's new pPCL definition standard was verified, and it was found that the survival of MM with 1%-4% CPC also is poor and the prognosis is very close to pPCL. In addition, the newly defined pPCL has unique clinical and biological characteristics.

Focused ultrasound for brain metastases: an update on global clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Despite advances in immunotherapy and targeted treatments for malignancies of the central nervous system (CNS), the treatment of brain metastases (BMs) remains a formidable challenge, due largely to difficulties in crossing the blood-brain barrier (BBB), drug resistance, and molecular discrepancies. Focused ultrasound (FUS) is a non-invasive tool for BBB breaching, tumor ablation, enhancing drug delivery, promoting the release of tumor biomarkers for liquid biopsy, or the tumor microenvironment disruption. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the current literature related to FUS and its application in the treatment of brain metastasis. METHODS: This review of the current literature via PubMed, Google Scholar, and Clincaltrials.gov focused on clinical trials in which FUS is used in the intracranial treatment of metastatic tumor, glioma, or GBM. RESULTS: FUS is safe and effective for treatment of primary or metastatic brain tumors. FUS-augmented drug delivery can open BBB to facilitate the transport of chemotherapeutic agents, immunotherapies, and targeted treatments. The integration of FUS with liquid biopsy has considerable potential for early tumor detection, precise gene profiling, and personalized therapy. Sonodynamic therapy can induce tumor cell apoptosis and could potentially be used to enhance the outcomes of other tumor treatments, such as surgery and chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: Further work is required to establish FUS as a standard therapy for BMs. FUS has the potential to transform brain tumor treatment, particularly when combined with immunotherapy and targeted therapy as a non-invasive alternative to surgery and radiation therapy.

[Correlation between D-Dimer/Fibrinogen Ratio and Bleeding in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia].

OBJECTIVE: To further explore the better indicators for predicting the degree of bleeding associated with newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). METHODS: A total of 131 patients with newly diagnosed APL were classified according to WHO bleeding scales before treatment and divided into two groups: scales 0, 1 and 2 were included in no severe bleeding group, scales 3 and 4 were included in severe bleeding group. The information of the patients were collected, including sex, age, hemoglobin (Hb), white blood cell (WBC) count and platelet (PLT) count, peripheral blood lymphocyte percentage (LYMPH%), peripheral blood monocyte percentage (MONO%), percentage of leukemic cells in pripheral blood and bone marrow, prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), fibrinogen (FIB) levels, D-dimer (D-D), D-dimer/fibrinogen ratio (DFR). RESULTS: Among 131 patients, 110 were classified as no severe bleeding, and 21 were severe bleeding. The results of univariate analysis showed that patients with severe bleeding had significantly higher percentage of leukemic cells in pripheral blood, WBC, D-D, and DFR, as well as longer PT and lower LYMPH%, compared to those with no severe bleeding. Multivariate analysis revealed that DFR (OR =1.054, 95%CI : 1.024-1.084, P < 0.001) and percentage of peripheral blood leukemic cells (OR=1.026, 95%CI: 1.002-1.051, P =0.033) were independent risk factors for severe bleeding. The area under ROC curve (AUC) of peripheral blood leukemic cells, D-D and DFR were 0.748, 0.736 and 0.809, respectively. There was no statistical difference between the peripheral blood leukemic cells and D-D in diagnostic efficacy (P =0.8708). Compared with D-D, DFR had a higher predictive value (P =0.0302). The optimal cut-off value of DFR was 16.50, with a sensitivity of 90.5% and a specificity of 70.0%. CONCLUSION: DFR has a significant advantage in predicting the degree of bleeding associated with newly diagnosed APL. The greater the DFR value, the heavier the degree of bleeding. The risk of severe or fatal bleeding increases when DFR is greater than 16.50.

Is it advisable to perform radiosurgery for EGFR-TKI-controlled brain metastases? A retrospective study of the role of radiosurgery in lung cancer treatment.

PURPOSE: Given the availability of TKIs with high central nervous system efficacy, the question arises as to whether upfront SRS provides additional clinical benefits. The goal of this study was to characterize the clinical outcomes of SRS as salvage therapy for TKI-uncontrolled BMs. METHODS: This retrospective study included EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients presenting BMs at the time of primary tumor diagnosis. BMs were categorized into three subgroups, referred to as "Nature of TKI-treated BMs", "TKI-controlled brain metastases ± SRS", and "SRS salvage therapy". The first subgroup analysis characterized the effects of TKIs on tumor behavior. In the second subgroup, we compared outcomes of TKI-controlled BMs treated with TKI alone versus those treated with combined TKI-SRS therapy. The third subgroup characterized the outcomes of TKI-uncontrolled BMs treated with SRS as salvage therapy Clinical outcomes include local and distant tumor control. RESULTS: This study included 106 patients with a total of 683 BMs. TKI treatment achieved control in 63% of local tumors at 24 months. Among the TKI-controlled BMs, local tumor control was significantly higher in the combined TKI-SRS group (93%) than in the TKI-alone group (65%) at 24 months (p < 0.001). No differences were observed between the two groups in terms of distant tumor control (p = 0.832). In dealing with TKI-uncontrolled BMs, salvage SRS achieved local tumor control in 58% of BMs at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: While upfront TKI alone proved highly effective in BM control, this study also demonstrated the outcomes of SRS when implemented concurrently with TKI or as salvage therapy for TKI-uncontrolled BMs. This study also presents a strategy of the precise timing and targeting of SRS to lesions in progression.

Evaluation of the transmissibility of norovirus and the effectiveness of prevention and control measures for schools in Jiangsu Province.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to estimate the transmissibility of norovirus outbreaks in schools by different transmission routes, and to evaluate the effects of isolation, school-closure and disinfection measures under different intervention intensities, finally, scientific prevention and control suggestions are proposed. METHOD: 23 outbreaks of norovirus infectious diarrhea occurring in Jiangsu Province's school from 2012-2018 were selected and fitted to the model. The data includes various types of school places and pathogen genotype. A 'SEIAQRW' model with two transmission routes was established. The transmissibility of each outbreak was assessed using effective reproduction number, the efficacy of different intervention measures and intensities were evaluated by calculating the total attack rate and peak incidence. RESULTS: The mean effective reproduction number of noroviruses was estimated to be 8.92 for the human-to-human route of transmission and 2.19 for the water or food-to-human route of transmission. When all symptomatic cases were isolated, the median peak incidence for both transmission routes both being less than 1.8%. There was a smaller reduction in total attack rate compared to peak incidence, the median total attack rate for the two transmission routes decreased by 17.59% and 42.09%, respectively. When the effect of school-closure or disinfection is more than 90%, the total attack rate and peak incidence in the human-to-human route are reduced by more than 90% compared to no intervention, and the peak incidence in the water or food-to-human routes can be reduced to less than 1.4%, but the reduction in the total attack rate is only 50% or so. CONCLUSION: Norovirus outbreaks have a high rate of transmission in schools. In the case of norovirus outbreaks, isolation should be complemented by other interventions, and the implementation of high-intensity school closures or disinfection of the external environment can be effective in reducing the spread of the virus.

Does exposure to air pollution during different time windows affect pregnancy outcomes of in vitro fertilization treatment? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Few researches have examined the impact of air pollution exposure during various time windows on clinical outcomes in women receiving in vitro fertilization (IVF) therapy, and the findings of studies have been conflicting. We investigated the effects of six air pollutants exposure during different time windows (period 1, 85 days before egg retrieval to the beginning of gonadotropin; period 2, the beginning of gonadotropin to egg collection; period 3, egg collection to embryo transfer; period 4, embryo transfer to serum hCG measurement; period 5, serum hCG measurement to transvaginal ultrasonography; period 6, 85 days before egg retrieval to hCG measurement; period 7, 85 days before egg retrieval to transvaginal ultrasonography) on clinical outcomes of IVF therapy. A total of seven databases were searched. NO2 (period 6), SO2 (period 2, 3, and 7), CO (period 1, 2 and 7) exposure were linked to lower likelihoods of clinical pregnancy. PM2.5 (period 1), PM10 (period 1), SO2 (period 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6), NO2 (period 1) were linked to lower likelihoods of biochemical pregnancy. PM2.5 (period 1), SO2 (period 2 and 4) and CO (period 2) were linked to reduced probabilities of live birth. Our results implied that period 1 might be the most sensitive exposure window. Air pollution exposure is linked to reduced probabilities of clinical pregnancy, biochemical pregnancy, and live birth. Therefore, preventive measures to limit air pollution exposure should be started at least three months in advance of IVF therapy to improve pregnancy outcomes.

Simulating potential outbreaks of Delta and Omicron variants based on contact-tracing data: A modelling study in Fujian Province, China.

Although studies have compared the relative severity of Omicron and Delta variants by assessing the relative risks, there are still gaps in the knowledge of the potential COVID-19 burden these variations may cause. And the contact patterns in Fujian Province, China, have not been described. We identified 8969 transmission pairs in Fujian, China, by analyzing a contact-tracing database that recorded a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in September 2021. We estimated the waning vaccine effectiveness against Delta variant infection, contact patterns, and epidemiology distributions, then simulated potential outbreaks of Delta and Omicron variants using a multi-group mathematical model. For instance, in the contact setting without stringent lockdowns, we estimated that in a potential Omicron wave, only 4.7% of infections would occur in Fujian Province among individuals aged >60 years. In comparison, 58.75% of the death toll would occur in unvaccinated individuals aged >60 years. Compared with no strict lockdowns, combining school or factory closure alone reduced cumulative deaths of Delta and Omicron by 28.5% and 6.1%, respectively. In conclusion, this study validates the need for continuous mass immunization, especially among elderly aged over 60 years old. And it confirms that the effect of lockdowns alone in reducing infections or deaths is minimal. However, these measurements will still contribute to lowering peak daily incidence and delaying the epidemic, easing the healthcare system's burden.

A comparative study on epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and pathogenicity of three COVID-19 outbreaks caused by different variants.

OBJECTIVES: The Omicron BA.2 variant is probably the main epidemic strain worldwide at present. Comparing the epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and influencing factors of SARS-CoV-2, the results obtained in this paper will help to provide theoretical support for disease control. METHODS: This study was a historical information analysis, using the R programming language and SPSS 24.0 for statistical analysis. The Geoda and Arc GIS were used for spatial autocorrelation analysis. RESULTS: Local spatial autocorrelations of the incidence rate were observed in Delta and Omicron BA.1 outbreaks, whereas Omicron BA.2 outbreaks showed a random distribution in incidence rate. The time-dependent reproduction number of Delta, Omicron BA.1, and Omicron BA.2 were 3.21, 4.29, and 2.96, respectively, and correspondingly, the mean serial interval were 4.29 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.37-8.21), 3.84 days (95% CI: 0-8.37), and 2.77 days (95% CI: 0-5.83). The asymptomatic infection rate of cases in Delta, Omicron BA.1, and Omicron BA.2 outbreaks were 21.71%, 6.25%, and 4.35%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Omicron BA.2 variant had the greatest serial interval, transmissibility, and transmission speed, followed by BA.1, and then Delta. Compared with Delta and Omicron BA.1 variants, the Omicron BA.2 variant may be less pathogenic and more difficult to control than Omicron BA.1 and Delta.

Value of the FDP/FIB ratio in predicting early severe bleeding events in patients with newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia.

Severe bleeding is the leading cause of early death in patients with newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). However, there are no means for hemorrhagic risk stratification in APL. This study aimed to identify optimized predictors of severe bleeding events related to APL. A total of 109 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed APL from January 2015 to April 2022 were retrospectively investigated. A systematic review of computer-based patient medical records was conducted to obtain clinical date, including baseline characteristics, routine blood examination findings, coagulation and fibrinolysis indexes, and bleeding events. Among the 109 patients, 89 were classified into the no-severe bleeding group, while 20 had severe bleeding. Compared with the patients with no severe bleeding, the patients with severe bleeding had significantly higher circulating leukemic cell percentages, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) scores, D-dimer (D-D) levels, and fibrin degradation product (FDP) levels. They also had lower fibrinogen (FIB) levels and a longer prothrombin time. Multivariate analysis revealed that the circulating leukemic cell percentage (OR = 1.040, CI = 1.008-1.072, P = 0.012), FIB level (OR = 0.101, CI = 0.011-0.896, P = 0.040), and FDP level (OR = 1.012, CI = 1.000-1.024, P = 0.047) were independent risk factors for severe bleeding. FDP/FIB, D-D/FIB, and seven meaningful indicators in the single-factor analysis were included in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The results showed that FDP/FIB was the best indicator for predicting severe bleeding related to newly diagnosed APL. The area under the ROC curve of FDP/FIB was 0.915, and the best cutoff value was 61.77, with 100% sensitivity and 74.2% specificity. Statistical analysis showed a higher incidence of severe bleeding and higher DIC scores when FDP/FIB was >61.77 in APL patients. FDP/FIB has obvious advantages in predicting the degree of bleeding associated with primary promyelocytic leukemia; the greater the FDP/FIB value, the more severe the bleeding. The risk of severe bleeding was the highest when FDP/FIB > 61.77.

Isolation, structural characterization and quantification of impurities in bupivacaine.

Bupivacaine was found to be unstable during the accelerated storage condition(40 â„ƒ and 75% relative humidity), and two degradation impurities with the same protonated molecular ion were observed by high performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS). A semipreparative method was used to separate and purify the two impurities, and their structures were elucidated via comprehensive HR-MSMS and NMR spectroscopy analyses. Their stereo structures were characterized through single crystal X-ray diffraction. Meanwhile, an LC-MS method was developed and validated to quantify the two degradation impurities of bupivacaine. Chromatographic separation was performed on a C18 reversed-phase column (4.6 × 150 mm, 5 µm) using an equivalent elution with water and methanol. The limits of quantitation for the two degradation impurities (named RS1 and RS2) were 0.89 and 0.65 ng, respectively, and the average recoveries were in the range of 90∼108% and relative standard deviations were less than 5.0%. The proposed LC-MS method can be used to control the quality of bupivacaine and its formulations. DATA AVAILABILITY: Data will be made available on request.

Role and mechanism of the p-JAK2/p-STAT3 signaling pathway in follicular development in PCOS rats.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the association between the phosphorylated Janus kinase 2/phosphorylated signal transducer and activator of transcription (p-JAK2/p-STAT3) signaling pathway and follicular development in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) rats, and explore the underlying mechanism. To evaluate the role of exogenous JAK2 inhibitor AG490 in the model and the associations among luteinizing hormone/choriogonadotropin receptor (LHCGR), follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR), cytochrome P450 17α (CYP17a), cytochrome P450 19 (CYP19), and PCOS. RESULTS: Rat models of PCOS was established. PCOS rats were intraperitoneally treated with double-distilled water (ddH2O)/DMSO/AG490. The rate of ovarian morphological recovery in the AG490 group was significantly higher compared with the DMSO group (83.3 % vs 9.1 %, X2 = 12.68, P < 0.001). Moreover, the short in the time the estrous cycle was resumed in the AG490 group (hazard ratio = 16.32, P < 0.001) compared with the DMSO group. Compared with the controls, p-JAK2, p-STAT3, LHCGR, and CYP17a expression levels were increased whereas that of FSHR and CYP19 were decreased in the ovaries of PCOS rats. However, an opposite trend was observed after treatment with AG490. Software prediction revealed that the p-STAT3 bound to the promoter regions of LHCGR, FSHR, CYP17a, and CYP19 genes. This finding was confirmed by results of correlation analysis (R = 0.834, -0.836, 0.875 and -0.712, respectively, all P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that the p-JAK2/p-STAT3 signaling pathway was involved in follicular development in PCOS rats by upregulating LHCGR and CYP17a expression, and downregulating that of FSHR and CYP19. AG490 treatment exerted beneficial effects. LHCGR, FSHR, CYP17a, and CYP19 are candidate genes associated with follicular development in PCOS rats.

Application of logistic differential equation models for early warning of infectious diseases in Jilin Province.

BACKGROUND: There is still a relatively serious disease burden of infectious diseases and the warning time for different infectious diseases before implementation of interventions is important. The logistic differential equation models can be used for predicting early warning of infectious diseases. The aim of this study is to compare the disease fitting effects of the logistic differential equation (LDE) model and the generalized logistic differential equation (GLDE) model for the first time using data on multiple infectious diseases in Jilin Province and to calculate the early warning signals for different types of infectious diseases using these two models in Jilin Province to solve the disease early warning schedule for Jilin Province throughout the year. METHODS: Collecting the incidence of 22 infectious diseases in Jilin Province, China. The LDE and GLDE models were used to calculate the recommended warning week (RWW), the epidemic acceleration week (EAW) and warning removed week (WRW) for acute infectious diseases with seasonality, respectively. RESULTS: Five diseases were selected for analysis based on screening principles: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), shigellosis, mumps, Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and scarlet fever. The GLDE model fitted the above diseases better (0.80 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.94, P <  0. 005) than the LDE model. The estimated warning durations (per year) of the LDE model for the above diseases were: weeks 12-23 and 40-50; weeks 20-36; weeks 15-24 and 43-52; weeks 26-34; and weeks 16-25 and 41-50. While the durations of early warning (per year) estimated by the GLDE model were: weeks 7-24 and 36-51; weeks 13-37; weeks 11-26 and 39-54; weeks 23-35; and weeks 12-26 and 40-50. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the LDE model, the GLDE model provides a better fit to the actual disease incidence data. The RWW appeared to be earlier when estimated with the GLDE model than the LDE model. In addition, the WRW estimated with the GLDE model were more lagged and had a longer warning time.

Mindfulness mediates the relationship between positive parenting and aggression, depression, and suicidal ideation: A longitudinal study in middle school students.

Previous research has indicated that parenting factors affect the risk of maladaptive psychological outcomes (e.g., aggression, depression, or suicidal ideation), and that positive parenting is a prospective risk factor for maladaptive psychological outcomes. However, the mechanisms underlying the relationships between positive parenting, mindfulness, and maladaptive psychological outcomes remain unknown, as do the processes that mediate the effect of positive parenting on maladaptive psychological outcomes in adolescents. The objective of the present study was to investigate the longitudinal relationship between positive parenting, mindfulness, and maladaptive psychological outcomes in middle school students, as well as the mediating effect of mindfulness in the relationships between positive parenting and depression, aggression, and suicidal ideation. In this study, 386 middle school children (aged 12-16) were tested three times over a period of 6 months. Positive parenting was assessed at Time 1, mindfulness at Time 2, and depression, aggression, and suicidal ideation at Time 3. Using structural equation modeling, positive parenting was revealed to be longitudinally associated with mindfulness and negatively associated with maladaptive psychological outcomes. More crucially, mindfulness mediated the relationship between positive parenting and maladaptive psychological outcomes. This research provides important insights into how to effectively decrease adolescent maladaptive psychological outcomes and highlights the importance of teaching mindfulness to youths.

Age-specific transmission dynamic of mumps: A long-term large-scale modeling study in Jilin Province, China.

Objectives: Despite the adoption of a new childhood immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2019 and to assess the transmissibility of mumps virus among the whole population and different subgroups by regions and age groups. Methods: The Non-age-specific and age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Pre-symptomatic-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEPIAR) models were fitted to actual mumps incidence data. The time-varying reproduction number (R t ) was used to evaluate and compare the transmissibility. Results: From 2005 to 2019, a total of 57,424 cases of mumps were reported in Jilin Province. The incidence of mumps was the highest in people aged 5 to 9 years (77.37 per 100,000). The two SEPIAR models fitted the reported data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (R t ) calculated by the two SEPIAR models were 1.096 (range: 1.911 × 10-5-2.192) and 1.074 (range: 0.033-2.114) respectively. The age-specific SEPIAR model was more representative of the actual epidemic of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005-2019. Conclusions: For mumps control, it is recommended that mumps-containing vaccines (MuCV) coverage be increased nationwide in the 5-9 years age group, either by a mumps vaccine alone or by a combination of vaccines such as measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. The coverage of vaccines in Jilin Province should be continuously expanded to establish solid immunity in the population. China needs to redefine the optimal time interval for MuCV immunization.

Model-Based Evaluation of Transmissibility and Intervention Measures for a COVID-19 Outbreak in Xiamen City, China.

Background: In September 2021, there was an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Xiamen, China. Various non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) and pharmacological interventions (PIs) have been implemented to prevent and control the spread of the disease. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of various interventions and to identify priorities for the implementation of prevention and control measures. Methods: The data of patients with COVID-19 were collected from 8 to 30 September 2021. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) dynamics model was developed to fit the data and simulate the effectiveness of interventions (medical treatment, isolation, social distancing, masking, and vaccination) under different scenarios. The effective reproductive number (Reff ) was used to assess the transmissibility and transmission risk. Results: A total of 236 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Xiamen. The epidemic curve was divided into three phases (Reff = 6.8, 1.5, and 0). Notably, the cumulative number of cases was reduced by 99.67% due to the preventive and control measures implemented by the local government. In the effective containment stage, the number of cases could be reduced to 115 by intensifying the implementation of interventions. The total number of cases (TN) could be reduced by 29.66-95.34% when patients voluntarily visit fever clinics. When only two or three of these measures are implemented, the simulated TN may be greater than the actual number. As four measures were taken simultaneously, the TN may be <100, which is 57.63% less than the actual number. The simultaneous implementation of five interventions could rapidly control the transmission and reduce the number of cases to fewer than 25. Conclusion: With the joint efforts of the government and the public, the outbreak was controlled quickly and effectively. Authorities could promptly cut the transmission chain and control the spread of the disease when patients with fever voluntarily went to the hospital. The ultimate effect of controlling the outbreak through only one intervention was not obvious. The combined community control and mask wearing, along with other interventions, could lead to rapid control of the outbreak and ultimately lower the total number of cases. More importantly, this would mitigate the impact of the outbreak on society and socioeconomics.

Assessing the Impacts of Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Pandemic Using Generalized Estimating Equations.

Background: Meteorological factors have been proven to affect pathogens; both the transmission routes and other intermediate. Many studies have worked on assessing how those meteorological factors would influence the transmissibility of COVID-19. In this study, we used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by using three outcome variables, which are transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases. Methods: In this study, the data on the daily number of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 in 30 provinces and cities nationwide were obtained from the provincial and municipal health committees, while the data from 682 conventional weather stations in the selected provinces and cities were obtained from the website of the China Meteorological Administration. We built a Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model to fit the data, then we calculated the transmissibility of COVID-19 using an indicator of the effective reproduction number (Reff ). To quantify the different impacts of meteorological factors on several outcome variables including transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases of COVID-19, we collected panel data and used generalized estimating equations. We also explored whether there is a lag effect and the different times of meteorological factors on the three outcome variables. Results: Precipitation and wind speed had a negative effect on transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases, while humidity had a positive effect on them. The higher the temperature, the lower the transmissibility. The temperature had a lag effect on the incidence rate, while the remaining five meteorological factors had immediate and lag effects on the incidence rate and the number of reported cases. Conclusion: Meteorological factors had similar effects on incidence rate and number of reported cases, but different effects on transmissibility. Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, sunshine hours, and wind speed had immediate and lag effects on transmissibility, but with different lag times. An increase in temperature may first cause a decrease in virus transmissibility and then lead to a decrease in incidence rate. Also, the mechanism of the role of meteorological factors in the process of transmissibility to incidence rate needs to be further explored.

Shigellosis seasonality and transmission characteristics in different areas of China: A modelling study.

Objective: In China, the burden of shigellosis is unevenly distributed, notably across various ages and geographical areas. Shigellosis temporal trends appear to be seasonal. We should clarify seasonal warnings and regional transmission patterns. Method: This study adopted a Logistic model to assess the seasonality and a dynamics model to compare the transmission in different areas. The next-generation matrix was used to calculate the effective reproduction number (R eff) to quantify the transmissibility. Results: In China, the rate of shigellosis fell from 35.12 cases per 100,000 people in 2005 to 7.85 cases per 100,000 people in 2017, peaking in June and August. After simulation by the Logistic model, the 'peak time' is mainly concentrated from mid-June to mid-July. China's 'early warning time' is primarily focused on from April to May. We predict the 'peak time' of shigellosis is the 6.30th month and the 'early warning time' is 3.87th month in 2021. According to the dynamics model results, the water/food transfer pathway has been mostly blocked off. The transmissibility of different regions varies greatly, such as the mean R eff of Longde County (3.76) is higher than Xiamen City (3.15), higher than Chuxiong City (2.52), and higher than Yichang City (1.70). Conclusion: The 'early warning time' for shigellosis in China is from April to May every year, and it may continue to advance in the future, such as the early warning time in 2021 is in mid-March. Furthermore, we should focus on preventing and controlling the person-to-person route of shigellosis and stratified deploy prevention and control measures according to the regional transmission.