Serum growth differentiation factor 15 is a novel biomarker with high predictive capability for liver cancer occurrence in patients with MASLD regardless of liver fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) patients with a Fib-4 index >1.3 are recommended for fibrosis evaluation via elastography or biopsy, a more convenient method identifying high-risk populations requiring follow-up is needed. We explored the utility of serum levels of growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF15), a cell stress-responsive cytokine related to metabolic syndrome, for stratifying the risk of clinical events in MASLD patients. METHODS: Serum GDF15 levels were measured in 518 biopsy-performed MASLD patients, 216 MASLD patients for validation, and 361 health checkup recipients with MASLD. RESULTS: In the biopsy-MASLD cohort, multivariate analysis indicated that the serum GDF15 level was a risk factor for liver cancer, independent of the fibrosis stage or Fib-4 index. Using a GDF15 cutoff of 1.75 ng/mL based on the Youden index, high-GDF15 patients, regardless of fibrosis status, had a higher liver cancer incidence rate. While patients with a Fib-4 index <1.3 or low-GDF15 rarely developed liver cancer, high-GDF15 patients with a Fib-4 index >1.3 developed liver cancer and decompensated liver events at significantly higher rates and had poorer prognoses. In the validation cohort, high-GDF15 patients had significantly higher incidences of liver cancer and decompensated liver events and poorer prognoses than low-GDF15 patients, whether limited to high-Fib-4 patients. Among health checkup recipients with MASLD, 23.0% had a Fib-4 index >1.3, 2.7% had a Fib-4 index >1.3 and >1.75 ng/mL GDF15. CONCLUSIONS: Serum GDF15 is a biomarker for liver cancer with high predictive capability and is useful for identifying MASLD patients requiring regular surveillance.

Proteomic analysis of serum extracellular vesicles reveals Fibulin-3 as a new marker predicting liver-related events in MASLD.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for novel noninvasive markers for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) to stratify patients at high risk for liver-related events including liver cancer and decompensation. In the present study, we used proteomic analysis of proteins in extracellular vesicles (EVs) to identify new biomarkers that change with fibrosis progression and can predict the development of liver-related events. METHODS: We analyzed serum EVs from 50 patients with MASLD assessed for liver fibrosis by biopsy and identified proteins that altered with advanced fibrosis. A further evaluation was conducted on another cohort of 463 patients with MASLD with biopsy. RESULTS: Eight candidate proteins were identified by proteomic analysis of serum EVs. Among them, serum levels of Fibulin-3, Fibulin-1, and Ficolin 1 correlated with their EV levels. In addition, serum Fibulin-3 and serum Fibulin-1 levels changed significantly with advanced fibrosis. Using another cohort with biopsy, we found that the serum Fibulin-3 concentration was significantly greater in those with advanced fibrosis but that the serum Fibulin-1 concentration was not significantly different. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that a higher Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and higher serum Fibulin-3 concentration were independent risk factors for liver-related events. When the cutoff value for the serum Fibulin-3 concentration was 6.0 µg/mL according to the Youden index of AUROCs, patients with high serum Fibulin-3 significantly more frequently developed liver-related events than did other patients. Validation using another cohort of 226 patients with clinically diagnosed MASLD confirmed that high serum Fibulin-3 levels are associated with a greater frequency of liver-related events. CONCLUSIONS: Serum Fibulin-3 was identified as a biomarker for predicting liver-related events in patients with MASLD.

Incidence and Predictors of Esophagogastric Varices Bleeding in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Lenvatinib.

Introduction: Lenvatinib is indicated for the forefront treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC), but its use may be limited by the risk of esophagogastric varices (EGV) bleeding. This study assessed the prevalence, predictors, and complications of EGV in aHCC patients treated with lenvatinib. Methods: In this multicenter international retrospective study, cirrhotic patients treated with lenvatinib for aHCC, were enrolled if upper-gastrointestinal endoscopy was available within 6 months before treatment. Primary endpoint was the incidence of EGV bleeding during lenvatinib therapy; secondary endpoints were predictors for EGV bleeding, prevalence, and risk factors for the presence of EGV and high-risk EGV at baseline, as well as impact of EGV bleeding on patients' survival. Results: 535 patients were enrolled in the study (median age: 72 years, 78% male, 63% viral etiology, 89% Child-Pugh A, 16% neoplastic portal vein thrombosis [nPVT], 56% Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer-C): 234 had EGV (44%), 70 (30%) were at high risk and 59 were on primary prophylaxis. During lenvatinib treatment, 17 patients bled from EGV (3 grade 5), the 12-month cumulative incidence being 3%. The only baseline independent predictor of EGV bleeding was the presence of baseline high-risk EGV (hazard ratio: 6.94, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.23-21.57, p = 0.001). In these patients the 12-month risk was 17%. High-risk varices were independently associated with Child-Pugh B score (odds ratio [OR]: 2.12; 95% CI: 1.08-4.17, p = 0.03), nPVT (OR: 2.54; 95% CI: 1.40-4.61, p = 0.002), and platelets <150,000/µL (OR: 2.47; 95% CI: 1.35-4.50, p = 0.003). Conclusion: In hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with lenvatinib, the risk of EGV bleeding was mostly low but significant only in patients with high-risk EGV at baseline.

Adverse Events as Potential Predictive Factors of Activity in Patients with Advanced HCC Treated with Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab.

BACKGROUND: In the context of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with systemic therapy, the correlation between the appearance of adverse events (AEs) and reported efficacy outcomes is well-known and widely investigated. From other pathological settings, we are aware of the prognostic and predictive value of the occurrence of immune-related AEs in patients treated with immune-checkpoint inhibitors. OBJECTIVE: This retrospective multicenter real-world study aims to investigate the potential prognostic value of AEs in patients with HCC treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab in the first-line setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study population consisted of 823 patients from five countries (Italy, Germany, Portugal, Japan, and the Republic of Korea). RESULTS: Of the patients, 73.3% presented at least one AE during the study period. The most common AEs were proteinuria (29.6%), arterial hypertension (27.2%), and fatigue (26.0%). In all, 17.3% of the AEs were grade (G) 3. One death due to bleeding was reported. The multivariate analysis confirmed the appearance of decreased appetite G < 2 [versus G ≥ 2; hazard ratio (HR) 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.13-0.90; p < 0.01] and immunotoxicity G < 2 (versus G ≥ 2; HR: 0.70; 95% CI 0.24-0.99; p = 0.04) as independent prognostic factors for overall survival, and the appearance of decreased appetite G < 2 (versus G ≥ 2; HR: 0.73; 95% CI 0.43-0.95; p = 0.01), diarrhea (yes versus no; HR: 0.57, 95% CI 0.38-0.85; p = 0.01), fatigue (yes versus no; HR: 0.82, 95% CI 0.65-0.95; p < 0.01), arterial hypertension G < 2 (versus G ≥ 2; HR: 0.68, 95% CI 0.52-0.87; p < 0.01), and proteinuria (yes versus no; HR: 0.79, 95% CI 0.64-0.98; p = 0.03) as independent prognostic factors for progression-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: As demonstrated for other therapies, there is also a correlation between the occurrence of AEs and outcomes for patients with HCC for the combination of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab.

Etiological changes of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma-complicated liver cirrhosis in Japan: Updated nationwide survey from 2018 to 2021.

AIM: A nationwide survey in 2018 showed decreasing involvement of viral hepatitis and increasing involvement of nonviral liver diseases in the etiology of liver cirrhosis (LC) in Japan. An updated nationwide survey was undertaken in 2023. METHODS: Cases of LC diagnosed between 2018 and 2021 were collected from 75 institutions, and the etiologies of LC were investigated. In addition, the data obtained were compared with the results of previous studies. RESULTS: Among the 15 517 cases, alcohol-related liver disease (ALD)-associated LC was the most frequent cause (n = 5,487, 35.4%). Hepatitis C virus-associated LC, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-associated LC, and hepatitis B virus-associated LC were ranked as second, third, and fourth, respectively. In comparison to the previous survey, the ratios of viral hepatitis-associated LC decreased (HBV: from 11.5% to 8.1%; HCV: from 48.2% to 23.4%), while the ratios of ALD-associated LC and NASH-associated LC increased (from 19.9% to 35.4% and from 6.3% to 14.6%, respectively). Regarding cases of LC with hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 5906), HCV-associated LC (1986 cases, 33.6%) was the most frequent cause. Alcohol-related liver disease-associated LC, NASH-associated LC, and HBV-associated LC were the second-, third-, and fourth-ranked causes, respectively. In comparison to the previous survey, as the cause of hepatocellular carcinoma-complicated LC, HCV-associated LC decreased from 60.3% to 33.6%, while the ratios of ALD-associated LC and NASH-associated LC increased from 14.2% to 28.6% and from 4.2% to 14.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The major causes of LC in Japan are suggested to have been shifting from viral hepatitis to nonviral chronic liver diseases.

Impact of body mass index on the prognosis of unresectable HCC patients receiving first-line Lenvatinib or atezolizumab plus bevacizumab.

INTRODUCTION: Overweight is a negative prognostic factor in the general population in the long term. However, the role of body mass index (BMI) in the short-mid term in advanced tumours is unclear. The present analysis investigates the role of BMI weight classes in a large sample of patients affected by HCC and receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line treatment. METHODS AND MATERIAL: The cohort included consecutive patients affected by BCLC-c and BCLC-B HCC patients from a multicenter international study group who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib as first-line therapy. Population was stratified according to the BMI in under-, over- and normal-weight according to the conventional thresholds. The primary objective of the study was to evaluate the prognostic and predictive impact of BMI in patients affected by advanced or intermediate HCC. Survival curves were estimated using the product-limit method of Kaplan-Meier. The role of stratification factors was analysed with log-rank tests. RESULTS: 1292 consecutive patients with HCC were analysed. 466 (36%) patients were treated with lenvatinib and 826 (64%) patients were treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. In the atezolizumab plus bevacizumab arm, 510 (62%) patients were normal-weight, 52 (6%) underweight and 264 (32%) overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients, whereas no differences were found between normal-weight versus overweight. Multivariate analysis confirmed that underweight patients had significantly shorter OS compared to normal-weight patients (HR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0-2.8; p = .0323). In the lenvatinib arm, 26 patients (5.6%) were categorized as underweight, 256 (54.9%) as normal-weight, and 184 (39.5%) as overweight. At the univariate analysis for OS, no significant differences were found between normal-weight versus underweight and between normal-weight versus overweight, which was confirmed at multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our analysis highlighted a prognostic role of BMI in a cohort of patients with advanced HCC who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, while no prognostic role for low BMI was apparent in patients who received lenvatinib.

Safety and Efficacy of Lenvatinib in Very Old Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Data concerning the use of lenvatinib in very old patients (≥ 80 years) are limited, although the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in this patient population is constantly increasing. OBJECTIVE: This analysis aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of lenvatinib in a large cohort of very old patients (≥ 80 years) with unresectable HCC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study was conducted on a cohort of 1325 patients from 46 centers in four Western and Eastern countries (Italy, Germany, Japan, and the Republic of Korea) who were undergoing first-line treatment with lenvatinib between July 2010 and February 2022. Patients were stratified according to age as very old (≥ 80 years) and not very old (< 80 years). RESULTS: The median overall survival (OS) was 15.7 months for patients < 80 years old and 18.4 months for patients ≥ 80 years old [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-1.25, p = 0.8281]. Median progression free survival (PFS) was 6.3 months for patients < 80 years old and 6.5 months for patients ≥ 80 years old (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.91-1.25, p = 0.3954). No differences between the two study groups were found in terms of disease control rate (DCR; 80.8% versus 78.8%; p = 0.44) and response rate (RR; 38.2% versus 37.9%; p = 0.88). Patients < 80 years old experienced significantly more hand-foot skin reaction (HFSR) grade ≥ 2 and decreased appetite grade ≥ 2. Conversely, patients ≥ 80 years old experienced significantly more fatigue grade ≥ 2. In the very old group, parameters associated with prognosis were AFP, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), and Child-Pugh score. BCLC stage was the only independent predictor of overall survival (OS; HR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.11-2.29, p = 0.01115). CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the same efficacy and safety of lenvatinib between very old and not very old patients.

α-FAtE: A new predictive score of response to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma.

Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (AB) and lenvatinib can be alternatively used as first-line systemic treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, no direct comparison of the two regimens has been performed in randomized clinical trials, making the identification of baseline differential predictors of response of major relevance to tailor the best therapeutic option to each patient. Baseline clinical and laboratory characteristics of real-world AB-treated HCC patients were analyzed in uni- and multivariate analyses to find potential prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). Significant variables were incorporated in a composite score (α-FAtE) and it was tested for specificity and sensitivity in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and in multivariate analysis for OS. The score was applied in uni- and multivariate analyses for OS of a comparable lenvatinib-treated HCC population. Finally, comparison between treatments was performed in patients with low and high α-FAtE scores and predictivity estimated by interaction analysis. Time-to-progression (TTP) was a secondary endpoint. OS of AB-treated HCC patients was statistically longer in those with α-fetoprotein <400 ng/mL (HR 0.62, p = .0407), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) <125 IU/L (HR 0.52, p = .0189) and eosinophil count ≥70/µL (HR 0.46, p = .0013). The α-FAtE score was generated by the sum of single points attributed to each variable among the above reported. In ROC curve analysis, superior sensitivity and specificity were achieved by the score compared to individual variables (AUC 0.794, p < .02). Patients with high score had longer OS (HR 0.44, p = .0009) and TTP (HR 0.34, p < .0001) compared to low score if treated with AB, but not with lenvatinib. Overall, AB was superior to lenvatinib in high score patients (HR 0.55, p = .0043) and inferior in low score ones (HR 1.75, p = .0227). At interaction test, low α-FAtE score resulted as negative predictive factor of response to AB (p = .0004). In conclusion, α-FAtE is a novel prognostic and predictive score of response to first-line AB for HCC patients that, if validated in prospective studies, could drive therapeutic choice between lenvatinib and AB.

Coexistence of muscle atrophy and high subcutaneous adipose tissue radiodensity predicts poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Introduction: We aimed to assess the prognostic implications of muscle atrophy and high subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) radiodensity in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: In this retrospective study, muscle atrophy was assessed using the psoas muscle index (PMI) obtained from computed tomography. SAT radiodensity was evaluated based on radiodensity measurements. Survival and multivariate analyses were performed to identify factors associated with prognosis. The impact of muscle atrophy and high SAT radiodensity on prognosis was determined through survival analysis. Results: A total of 201 patients (median age: 71 years; 76.6% male) with HCC were included. Liver cirrhosis was observed in 72.6% of patients, and the predominant Child-Pugh grade was A (77.1%). A total of 33.3% of patients exhibited muscle atrophy based on PMI values, whereas 12.9% had high SAT radiodensity. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that patients with muscle atrophy had significantly poorer prognosis than those without muscle atrophy. Patients with high SAT radiodensity had a significantly worse prognosis than those without it. Muscle atrophy, high SAT radiodensity, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer class B, C, or D, and Child-Pugh score ≥ 6 were significantly associated with overall survival. Further classification of patients into four groups based on the presence or absence of muscle atrophy and high SAT radiodensity revealed that patients with both muscle atrophy and high SAT radiodensity had the poorest prognosis. Conclusion: Muscle atrophy and high SAT radiodensity are significantly associated with poor prognosis in patients with HCC. Identifying this high-risk subgroup may facilitate the implementation of targeted interventions, including nutritional therapy and exercise, to potentially improve clinical outcomes.

Posttreatment liver function, but not baseline liver function stratifies patient survival after direct-acting antiviral treatment in decompensated cirrhosis with hepatitis C virus.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of cirrhosis is clearly stratified by liver function. Although direct-acting antiviral (DAA) has recently been used to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV), it is not clear whether liver function stratifies the prognosis of decompensated cirrhotic patients treated with DAA. METHODS: A total of 206 HCV-associated decompensated cirrhotic patients who started DAA from February 2019 to December 2021 at 31 Japanese hospitals were prospectively registered. RESULTS: The median age was 68, and the proportions of patients with Child-Pugh class A (CP-A), CP-B and CP-C were 10% (20/206), 76% (156/206) and 15% (30/206), respectively. Twenty-six patients died, and two patients underwent liver transplantation (LT); the 2- and 3-year LT-free survival rates were 90.0% and 83.2%, respectively. We examined factors associated with LT-free survival using 2 models including either CP class (Model 1) or MELD score (Model 2). In multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, CP class at 12 weeks after the end of treatment (EOT) in Model 1 and MELD score at 12 weeks after the EOT in Model 2 were significant factors, while baseline CP class or MELD score was not. Two-year LT-free survival rates were 100%, 91.6% and 60.4% for patients with CP-A, CP-B and CP-C at 12 weeks after the EOT and 95.2% and 69.6% for patients with MELD < 15 and MELD ≥ 15 at 12 weeks after the EOT, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of decompensated cirrhotic patients receiving DAA was stratified by liver function at 12 weeks after the EOT, not by baseline liver function.

Recent prevalence and characteristics of patients with hepatitis delta virus in Hokkaido, Japan.

AIM: Although hepatitis delta virus (HDV) coinfection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a global health concern, the global prevalence of HDV infections remains unknown due to insufficient data in many countries. In Japan, HDV prevalence has not been updated for over 20 years. We aimed to investigate the recent prevalence of HDV infections in Japan. METHODS: We screened 1264 consecutive patients with HBV infection at Hokkaido University Hospital between 2006 and 2022. Patients' serums were preserved and subsequently tested for HDV antibody (immunoglobulin-G). Available clinical information was collected and analyzed. We compared the changes in liver fibrosis using the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index between propensity-matched patients with and without the evidence of anti-HDV antibodies and corrected for baseline FIB-4 index, nucleoside/nucleotide analog treatment, alcohol intake, sex, HIV coinfection, liver cirrhosis, and age. RESULTS: After excluding patients without properly stored serums and those lacking appropriate clinical information, 601 patients with HBV were included. Of these, 1.7% of patients had detectable anti-HDV antibodies. Patients with anti-HDV antibody serum positivity had a significantly higher prevalence of liver cirrhosis, significantly lower prothrombin time, and a higher prevalence of HIV coinfection than those who demonstrated serum anti-HDV antibody negativity. A propensity-matched longitudinal analysis revealed that liver fibrosis (FIB-4 index) progressed more rapidly in patients with positive results for anti-HDV antibody tests. CONCLUSIONS: The recent prevalence of HDV infections in Japanese patients with HBV was 1.7% (10/601). These patients experienced rapid liver fibrosis progression, highlighting the importance of routine HDV testing.

Potential Correlation between Changes in Serum FGF21 Levels and Lenvatinib-Induced Appetite Loss in Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Lenvatinib, used for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), causes appetite loss, but the underlying mechanisms, clinical impact, and predictive factors have been unclear. The endocrine factor FGF21 modulates appetite and is involved in cachexia. We evaluated the association between FGF21 level changes during lenvatinib treatment for unresectable HCC and appetite loss. Sixty-three eligible unresectable HCC patients who started lenvatinib treatment between 2018 and 2021 were included. We analyzed FGF21 levels at baseline; 1, 2, and 4 weeks after lenvatinib initiation, and before the onset of appetite loss. Grade ≥ 2 lenvatinib-induced appetite loss led to liver functional reserve deterioration at disease progression and a poor prognosis. Baseline characteristics and serum FGF21 levels were similar between patients with and without appetite loss. However, the serum FGF21 change rate increased significantly at 4 weeks post-lenvatinib initiation in patients with grade ≥ 2 appetite loss, as compared to those without appetite loss. Similar significant increases in the serum FGF21 level change rate were observed prior to grade ≥ 2 appetite loss onset. This suggests that changes in FGF21 levels can be used to predict patients with a greater risk of marked appetite loss and provides insights into the mechanisms underlying lenvatinib-induced appetite loss in patients with HCC.

Sequential therapies after atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or lenvatinib first-line treatments in hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this retrospective proof-of-concept study was to compare different second-line treatments for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and progressive disease (PD) after first-line lenvatinib or atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 1381 patients had PD at first-line therapy. 917 patients received lenvatinib as first-line treatment, and 464 patients atezolizumab plus bevacizumab as first-line. RESULTS: 49.6% of PD patients received a second-line therapy without any statistical difference in overall survival (OS) between lenvatinib (20.6months) and atezolizumab plus bevacizumab first-line (15.7months; p = 0.12; hazard ratio [HR]= 0.80). After lenvatinib first-line, there wasn't any statistical difference between second-line therapy subgroups (p = 0.27; sorafenib HR: 1; immunotherapy HR: 0.69; other therapies HR: 0.85). Patients who underwent trans-arterial chemo-embolization (TACE) had a significative longer OS than patients who received sorafenib (24.7 versus 15.8months, p < 0.01; HR=0.64). After atezolizumab plus bevacizumab first-line, there was a statistical difference between second-line therapy subgroups (p < 0.01; sorafenib HR: 1; lenvatinib HR: 0.50; cabozantinib HR: 1.29; other therapies HR: 0.54). Patients who received lenvatinib (17.0months) and those who underwent TACE (15.9months) had a significative longer OS than patients treated with sorafenib (14.2months; respectively, p = 0.01; HR=0.45, and p < 0.05; HR=0.46). CONCLUSION: Approximately half of patients receiving first-line lenvatinib or atezolizumab plus bevacizumab access second-line treatment. Our data suggest that in patients progressed to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, the systemic therapy able to achieve the longest survival is lenvatinib, while in patients progressed to lenvatinib, the systemic therapy able to achieve the longest survival is immunotherapy.

Low Baseline CXCL9 Predicts Early Progressive Disease in Unresectable HCC with Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab Treatment.

Introduction: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab treatment is highly effective in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, progressive disease (PD) occurs in approximately 20% of HCC patients treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, resulting in a poor prognosis. Thus, the prediction and early detection of HCC is crucial. Methods: Patients with unresectable HCC treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and had baseline preserved serum (n = 68) were screened and classified according to their PD, 6 weeks after treatment initiation (early PD; n = 13). Of these, 4 patients each with and without early PD were selected for cytokine array and genetic analyses. The identified factors were validated in the validated cohort (n = 60) and evaluated in patients treated with lenvatinib. Results: No significant differences were observed in the genetic alterations in circulating tumor DNA. Cytokine array data revealed that baseline MIG (CXCL9), ENA-78, and RANTES differed substantially between patients with and without early PD. Subsequent analysis in the validation cohort revealed that baseline CXCL9 was significantly lower in patients with early PD than that in patients without early PD, and the best cut-off value of serum CXCL9 to predict early PD was 333 pg/mL (sensitivity: 0.600, specificity: 0.923, AUC = 0.75). In patients with lower serum CXCL9 (<333 pg/mL), 35.3% (12/34) experienced early PD with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, while progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly shorter relative to that in patients without (median PFS, 126 days vs. 227 days; HR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.22-4.80, p = 0.0084). While patients with objective response to lenvatinib had significantly lower CXCL9 levels compared with those of patients without. Conclusion: Baseline low serum CXCL9 (<333 pg/mL) levels may predict early PD in patients with unresectable HCC treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab.

Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin predicts the efficacy of tolvaptan for ascites in patients with liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with liver cirrhosis (LC), water retention, diuretics to treat water retention, and a poor prognosis. Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) reportedly predicts a poor prognosis in decompensated LC. This study investigated the usefulness of uNGAL in predicting the short- and long-term effects of tolvaptan (TVP) and the incidence of AKI post-TVP administration. METHODS: Of the LC cases with water retention, 86 with available pre-treatment uNGAL were analyzed. A short-term response was defined as weight loss of ≥ 1.5 kg within the first week; a long-term response was defined as a short-term response without early recurrence. The uNGAL usefulness in predicting the short- and long-term effects of TVP and AKI incidence post-TVP administration was investigated. RESULTS: Short-term effects of TVP were observed in 52 patients. Of these, 15 patients had an early recurrence. In multivariate analysis, significant short-term predictive factors were C-reactive protein (CRP) < 1.4 mg/dl, uNa/K ratio ≥ 3.51, and uNGAL < 50.2 ng/ml. Patients were classified according to these three cut-off values, with short-term response rates of 92.9%, 68.8%, 26.7%, and 0% for 0, 1, 2, and 3 points, respectively. CRP < 0.94 mg/dl and uNGAL < 50.2 ng/ml were significant factors for predicting the long-term response of TVP. The AKI incidence post-TVP was 8.1% (n = 7) and was significantly higher among those with uNGAL ≥ 38.1 ng/mL. CONCLUSION: uNGAL is a useful predictor of the short- and long-term efficacy of TVP and can be useful in predicting AKI incidence post-TVP administration.

Hepatitis C virus eradication by direct-acting antivirals causes a simultaneous increase in the prevalence of fatty liver and hyper low-density lipoprotein cholesterolemia without an increase in body weight.

AIM: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been reported to cause liver steatosis. Thus, eradicating HCV with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is expected to reduce liver steatosis. We aimed to clarify long-term changes in the prevalence of fatty liver and hyper-low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterolemia and their associations in patients who achieve successful HCV eradication using DAAs. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients with HCV who achieved sustained virologic response after interferon-free DAA and analyzed the changes in the prevalence of fatty liver diagnosed with controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), hyper-LDL cholesterolemia, and their relationships at baseline (n = 100) and 24 weeks (SVR24, n = 100), 96 weeks (SVR96, n = 100), and 144 weeks (SVR144, n = 90) after DAA. RESULTS: In 100 participants, the prevalence of fatty liver (19% vs. 32%, p = 0.0349) and hyper-LDL cholesterolemia (6% vs. 15%, p = 0.0379) significantly increased without changes in body weight at SVR96. Median total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and small-dense-LDL (sdLDL) levels and CAP values were significantly greater at SVR24, SVR96, and SVR144 than at baseline. Baseline CAP values and changes in CAP values were significantly negatively correlated at every observation point: r = -0.5305, p < 0.0001 at SVR24; r = -0.3617, p = 0.0005 at SVR96; and r = -0.4735, p < 0.0001 at SVR144. A similar relationship was observed in cholesterol levels. Unlike at baseline, CAP values were significantly positively correlated with LDL-C and sdLDL-C levels at all observation points after DAAs. CONCLUSIONS: Direct-acting antivirals may cause an increased prevalence of fatty liver accompanying hyper-LDL cholesterolemia without increased body weight. As post-SVR liver steatosis could cause HCC, careful follow-up may be required.

Prediction Model with HLA-A*33:03 Reveals Number of Days to Develop Liver Cancer from Blood Test.

The development of liver cancer in patients with hepatitis B is a major problem, and several models have been reported to predict the development of liver cancer. However, no predictive model involving human genetic factors has been reported to date. For the items incorporated in the prediction model reported so far, we selected items that were significant in predicting liver carcinogenesis in Japanese patients with hepatitis B and constructed a prediction model of liver carcinogenesis by the Cox proportional hazard model with the addition of Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genotypes. The model, which included four items-sex, age at the time of examination, alpha-fetoprotein level (log10AFP) and presence or absence of HLA-A*33:03-revealed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.862 for HCC prediction within 1 year and an AUROC of 0.863 within 3 years. A 1000 repeated validation test resulted in a C-index of 0.75 or higher, or sensitivity of 0.70 or higher, indicating that this predictive model can distinguish those at high risk of developing liver cancer within a few years with high accuracy. The prediction model constructed in this study, which can distinguish between chronic hepatitis B patients who develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) early and those who develop HCC late or not, is clinically meaningful.

Identification of Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab Prognostic Index via Recursive Partitioning Analysis in HCC: The ABE Index.

BACKGROUND/AIM: The purpose of this study was to ascertain a novel prognostic index via recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients being treated with the combination of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (ABE) in first-line setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 784 patients with HCC were included in the analysis. RESULTS: RPA identified three groups of patients: high-risk [Child-Pugh B (CP-B) patients; CP-A and Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI)-2 patients; CP-A and ALBI-1 patients with macrovascular invasion (MVI), and alpha-fetoprotein (α-FP) ≥400 ng/ml]; intermediate-risk [CP-A and ALBI-1 patients with aspartate aminotransferase (AST) normal value (NV), and αFP ≥400 ng/ml, but without MVI; CP-A and ALBI-1 patients with AST increased value (IV), and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥3, but without MVI]; low-risk (CP-A and ALBI-1 patients with AST NV, and αFP <400 ng/ml, but without MVI; CP-A and ALBI-1 patients with AST IV, and NLR <3, but without MVI; CP-A and ALBI-1 patients with MVI, and αFP <400 ng/ml). Overall survival was 7.0 months in high-risk patients (20.8%), 14.2 months in intermediate-risk patients (19.1%), and 22.5 months in low-risk patients (60.1%). CONCLUSION: The ABE index allows for easy stratification of HCC patients treated with the combination of ABE in first-line setting.

Survival outcomes from atezolizumab plus bevacizumab versus Lenvatinib in Child Pugh B unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

INTRODUCTION: The best first-line treatment for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and Child-Pugh (CP) class B remains unknown. The aim of the present study was to perform a real-world analysis on a large sample of patients with unresectable HCC with CP B treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab Vs Lenvatinib. METHODS: The study population included patients affected by advanced (BCLC-C) or intermediate (BCLC-B) HCC patients not suitable for locoregional therapies from both the Western and Eastern world (Italy, Germany, Republic of Korea and Japan), who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or Lenvatinib as first-line treatment. All the study population presented a CP class of B. The primary endpoint of the study was the overall survival (OS) of CP B patients treated with Lenvatinib compared to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. Survival curves were estimated using the product-limit method of Kaplan-Meier. The role of stratification factors was analyzed with log-rank tests. Finally, an interaction test was performed for the main baseline clinical characteristics. RESULTS: 217 CP B HCC patients were enrolled in the study: 65 (30%) received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, and 152 (70%) received lenvatinib. The mOS for patients receiving Lenvatinib was 13.8 months (95% CI: 11.6-16.0), compared to 8.2 months (95% CI 6.3-10.2) for patients receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab as first-line treatment (atezolizumab plus bevacizumab Vs Lenvatinib: HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.0, p = 0.0050). No statistically significant differences were highlighted in terms of mPFS. The multivariate analysis confirmed that patients receiving Lenvatinib as first-line treatment have a significantly longer OS compared to patients receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (HR 2.01; 95% CI 1.29-3.25, p = 0.0023). By evaluating the cohort of patients who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, we found that Child B patients with ECOG PS 0, or BCLC B stage or ALBI grade 1 were those who had benefited from the treatment thus showing survival outcomes no significantly different compared to those receiving Lenvatinib. CONCLUSION: The present study suggests for the first time a major benefit from Lenvatinib compared to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab in a large cohort of patients with CP B class HCC.

Real-World Data for Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: How Does Adherence to the IMbrave150 Trial Inclusion Criteria Impact Prognosis?

BACKGROUND: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab has recently been approved as a new first-line standard of care for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). OBJECTIVE: We performed a real-world study to evaluate the impact of the IMbrave150 trial inclusion criteria on the safety and efficacy of treatment outside of clinical trials. METHODS: We analyzed patients treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab for unresectable HCC from four different countries. No specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied, except for the absence of previous systemic therapies for HCC. The entire population was split into two groups according to concordance with the inclusion criteria as reported in the IMbrave150 trial in 'IMbrave150-in' and 'IMbrave150-out' patients, and safety and efficacy in the two groups of patients were evaluated. RESULTS: Overall, 766 patients were included in the analysis: 561/766 (73%) in the 'IMbrave150-in' group and 205/766 (27%) in the 'IMbrave150-out' group. Median overall survival (OS) and median progression-free survival (PFS) were 16.3 versus 14.3 months (hazard ratio [HR] 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35-0.65; p < 0.0001] and 8.3 versus 6.0 months (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63-0.99; p = 0.0431) in 'IMbrave150-in' and 'IMbrave150-out' patients, respectively. Multivariate analysis confirmed that patients included in the 'IMbrave150-in' group had significantly longer OS compared with patients included in the 'IMbrave150-out' group (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.47-0.97; p = 0.0195). In 'IMbrave150-in' patients, the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade was not associated with OS, whereas in 'IMbrave150-out' patients, those with ALBI grade 1 reported a significant benefit in terms of OS compared with those with ALBI grade 2 (16.7 vs. 5.9 months; HR 4.40, 95% CI 2.40-8.08; p > 0.0001). No statistically significant differences were reported in the 'IMbrave150-in' and 'IMbrave150-out' groups in terms of safety profile. CONCLUSION: Adherence to the IMbrave150 trial inclusion criteria favorably impacts the prognosis of patients receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. Among patients who did not meet the IMbrave150 inclusion criteria, those with ALBI grade 1 could benefit from the treatment.