Progress towards universal health coverage and inequalities in infant mortality: an analysis of 4·1 million births from 60 low-income and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Expanding universal health coverage (UHC) might not be inherently beneficial to poorer populations without the explicit targeting and prioritising of low-income populations. This study examines whether the expansion of UHC between 2000 and 2019 is associated with reduced socioeconomic inequalities in infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We did a retrospective analysis of birth data compiled from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). We analysed all births between 2000 and 2019 from all DHSs available for this period. The primary outcome was infant mortality, defined as death within 1 year of birth. Logistic regression models with country and year fixed effects assessed associations between country-level progress to UHC (using WHO's UHC service coverage index) and infant mortality (overall and by wealth quintile), adjusting for infant-level, mother-level, and country-level variables. FINDINGS: A total of 4 065 868 births to 1 833 011 mothers were analysed from 177 DHSs covering 60 LMICs between 2000 and 2019. A one unit increase in the UHC index was associated with a 1·2% reduction in the risk of infant death (AOR 0·988, 95% CI 0·981-0·995; absolute measure of association, 0·57 deaths per 1000 livebirths). An estimated 15·5 million infant deaths were averted between 2000 and 2019 because of increases in UHC. However, richer wealth quintiles had larger associated reductions in infant mortality from UHC (quintile 5 AOR 0·983, 95% CI 0·973-0·993) than poorer quintiles (quintile 1 0·991, 0·985-0·998). In the early stages of UHC, UHC expansion was generally beneficial to poorer populations (ie, larger reductions in infant mortality for poorer households [infant deaths per 1000 per one unit increase in UHC coverage: quintile 1 0·84 vs quintile 5 0·59]), but became less so as overall coverage increased (quintile 1 0·64 vs quintile 5 0·57). INTERPRETATION: Since UHC expansion in LMICs appears to become less beneficial to poorer populations as coverage increases, UHC policies should be explicitly designed to ensure lower income groups continue to benefit as coverage expands. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

The impact of health on labour market outcomes: A rapid systematic review.

The relationship between an individual's health and their labour market outcomes has long been a subject of health economics research. This review aims to provide an up-to-date, global review of the substantive findings in the existing literature. We pay particular attention to causal effects, acknowledging the methodological complexities that have long challenged the research and emphasizing the importance of overcoming them to present robust, policy-relevant evidence. The recent literature shows a notable advancement in addressing these methodological issues compared to previous work. The evidence reviewed suggests that individuals with better health overwhelmingly exhibit higher earnings and often enhanced labour supply. These findings extend beyond geographical boundaries, as evidence from diverse regions underscores the global significance of this association. The review covers evidence from a wide range of health indicators and conditions - including e.g. self-reported health, chronic diseases, disability, nutritional health, infections, mental health, addictions and others. Within and across the different health domains, the health-related factors exert varying degrees of influence on labour market outcomes, highlighting the multifaceted nature of the health-labour relationship and its potentially profound implications for individuals, communities, and economies.

The impact of health on economic growth: A narrative literature review.

The nexus between health and economic growth is a dynamic and complex relationship. This article reviews the empirical evidence that has sought to assess the causal impact of health on growth, understood as growth in GDP per capita, and focusing on cross-country and selected single country studies. The review largely provides evidence in favour of a positive effect of population health on economic growth. However, the multitude of the factors at play and the possible bidirectional relationship between health and growth pose a challenge for the quantification of the effect and for the relative importance of the underlying mechanisms. There is notable heterogeneity between studies in the magnitude and, in some cases, even in the sign of the effect. The evidence suggests that the health-growth relationship may depend on three main factors: the sample composition (i.e. a country's demographic stage or GDP per capita); the health dimension considered (e.g. health improvements at different life stages may affect productivity differently); and the model specification (e.g. whether or not initial life expectancy is controlled for in the analysis or the quality of the instrument). These findings advocate for a policy approach that integrates health considerations into economic strategies and emphasizes intersectoral collaboration to maximize the economic returns from improved health outcomes.

The effect of conflict-related violence intensity and alcohol use on mental health: The case of Colombia.

We investigated the causal impact of conflict-related violence on individual mental health and its potential pathways in Colombia. Using data from before and after the 2016 peace accord between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), we adopted a difference-in-differences empirical design combined with instrumental variables estimation. We also used formal mediation analysis to investigate a possible mediating role of alcohol consumption in the relationship between conflict exposure and mental health. Our results did not support the hypothesis that changes in exposure to conflict violence after the peace accord causally led to any changes in individual mental health. We were unable to identify a statistically significant mediating effect of alcohol consumption in the relationship between exposure to conflict violence and mental health.

Peer effects in weight-related behaviours of young people: A systematic literature review.

Individual preferences and beliefs are perpetually shaped by environmental influences, with peers playing a key role in this dynamic process. Compelling evidence from qualitative and quantitative studies has highlighted the significant impact of peer influence on health-related decisions. This systematic literature review critically synthesises findings from 45 studies published between 2011 and 2022, providing a comprehensive understanding of the nature of peer effects on dietary, physical activity and sleep behaviours during youth. The majority of studies indicated that social norms drive directional changes in eating and physical activity. Yet, our analysis revealed a notable gap in exploring alternative mechanisms, including social comparison and social identity, despite their potential relevance. Studies, generally classified as moderate to high quality, predominantly relied on self-reported data, potentially affecting the validity and reliability of measures. Meta-regression analyses suggest a small, but significant association of sample size with the magnitude, sign and significance of the reported peer effects. Moreover, studies focusing on physical activity are more likely to report significant outcomes, whereas findings on peer influence on sleep-related studies tend to reveal less pronounced effects, compared to studies on dietary behaviours. Experimental designs do not appear to increase the likelihood of finding significant effects when compared to other study designs. In conclusion, this synthesis emphasises the need for further research into the underlying mechanisms on peer effects to better inform policy-makers in designing effective policies for improving weight-related behaviours in young people.

The effects of social pensions on nutrition-related health outcomes of the poor: Quasi-experimental evidence from Peru.

This paper exploits the discontinuity around a welfare index of eligibility to assess the impact of Peru's social pension program Pension 65 on nutrition-related health outcomes among elderly poor individuals. Overall, we find evidence of how a relatively inexpensive program can produce improvements in anemia and nutrition-related mortality risk markers. The effects appear to be driven by plausible underlying mechanisms, including via improved nutritional quality as well as greater food expenditures and healthcare utilization. These positive effects are only modestly countered by tentative signs of an increased obesity risk among women in the short term (<2 years), but not beyond this term. As the program evolves further, policymakers need to confront the challenge of continuing to ensure the health benefits in terms of reducing nutritional deficits while avoiding potential undesirable side effects in terms of over-nutrition in Peru. The findings may serve to highlight the wider benefits of similar pension policies for the poor also in other middle income countries, well beyond the immediate economic welfare effects that the policies have primarily been designed for.

Exploring the association between primary care efficiency and health system characteristics across European countries: a two-stage data envelopment analysis.

BACKGROUND: Primary care is widely seen as a core component of resilient and sustainable health systems, yet its efficiency is not well understood and there is a lack of evidence about how primary care efficiency is associated with health system characteristics. We examine this issue through the lens of diabetes care, which has a well-established evidence base for effective treatment and has previously been used as a tracer condition to measure health system performance. METHODS: We developed a conceptual framework to guide the analysis of primary care efficiency. Using data on 18 European countries during 2010-2016 from several international databases, we applied a two-stage data envelopment analysis to estimate (i) technical efficiency of primary care and (ii) the association between efficiency and health system characteristics. RESULTS: Countries varied widely in terms of primary care efficiency, with efficiency scores depending on the range of population characteristics adjusted for. Higher efficiency was associated with bonus payments for the prevention and management of chronic conditions, nurse-led follow-up, and a financial incentive or requirement for patients to obtain a referral to specialist care. Conversely, lower efficiency was associated with higher rates of curative care beds and financial incentives for patients to register with a primary care provider. CONCLUSIONS: Our results underline the importance of considering differences in population characteristics when comparing country performance on primary care efficiency. We highlight several policies that could enhance the efficiency of primary care. Improvements in data collection would enable more comprehensive assessments of primary care efficiency across countries, which in turn could more effectively inform policymaking.

Associations between change in physical activity and sedentary time and health-related quality of life in older english adults: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study.

BACKGROUND: No previous studies have examined the associations between changes in objectively-measured physical behaviours with follow-up QoL in older adults. Based on cross-sectional evidence, it is biologically plausible that such associations exist. If so, this bolsters the case for the commissioning of activity interventions and for including QoL as an outcome in trials of such interventions. METHODS: We assessed physical behaviours (total physical activity, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), light physical activity, total sedentary time and prolonged sedentary bout time) for 7 days using hip-worn accelerometers at baseline (2006-2011) and follow-up (2012-2016) and health-related quality-of-life (QoL) using EQ-5D questionnaires at follow-up in 1433 participants (≥ 60 years) of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-Norfolk study. The EQ-5D summary score was used, with 0 as the worst to 1 as best perceived quality-of-life. We evaluated the prospective associations of baseline physical behaviours with follow-up QoL, and of changes in behaviours with follow-up QoL using multi-level regression. RESULTS: On average, MVPA decreased by 4.0 min/day/year (SD 8.3) for men and 4.0 min/day/year for women (SD 12.0) between baseline and follow-up. Total sedentary time increased by an average 5.5 min/day/yr (SD 16.0) for men and 6.4 min/day/yr (SD 15.0) for women between baseline and follow-up. Mean (SD) follow-up time was 5.8 (1.8) years. We found that higher baseline MVPA and lower sedentary time was associated with higher subsequent QoL (e.g. 1 h/day greater baseline MVPA was associated with 0.02 higher EQ-5D score, 95% CI 0.06, 0.36). More pronounced declines in activity were associated with worse Hr-QoL (0.005 (95% CI 0.003, 0.008) lower EQ-5D per min/day/yr decrease in MVPA). Increases in sedentary behaviours were also associated with poorer QoL (0.002 lower EQ-5D, 95% CI -0.003, -0.0007 per hour/day/yr increase in total sedentary time). CONCLUSIONS: Promotion of physical activity and limiting sedentary time among older adults may improve quality-of-life, and therefore this relationship ought to be included in future cost effectiveness analyses so that greater commissioning of activity interventions can be considered.

The impact of economic sanctions on health and health systems in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and narrative synthesis.

INTRODUCTION: Economic sanctions restrict customary commercial and financial ties between states to induce change in political constitution or conduct of the targeted country. Although the stated goals of sanctions often include humanitarian objectives, prospective procedures for health risk assessment are not regularly incorporated in their implementation. Moreover, past experience suggests that the burden of economic isolation may fall on the civilian population. We present key findings from a WHO-sponsored evidence review on the impact of economic sanctions on health and health systems in low-income and middle-income countries, aiming at comprehensive coverage and explicit consideration of issues of causality and mechanisms. METHODS: Broad searches of PubMed and Google Scholar (1970-2021) were designed to retrieve published and grey English-language literature expected to cut across disciplines, terminology and research methods. Studies providing an impact estimate were rated by a structured assessment based on ROBINS-I risk of bias domains, synthesised via vote counting and contextualised into the broader literature through a thematic synthesis. RESULTS: Included studies (185) were mostly peer-reviewed, mostly single-country, largely coming from medicine and public health, and chiefly concerned with three important target countries-Iraq, Haiti and Iran. Among studies providing impact estimates (31), most raised multiple risk-of-bias concerns. Excluding those with data integrity issues, a significant proportion (21/27) reported consistently adverse effects of sanctions across examined outcomes, with no apparent association to assessed quality, focus on early episodes or publication period. The thematic synthesis highlights the complexity of sanctions, their multidimensionality and the possible mechanisms of impact. CONCLUSION: Future research should draw on qualitative knowledge to collect domain-relevant data, combining it with better estimation techniques and study design. However, only the adoption of a risk assessment framework based on prospective data collection and monitoring can certify claims that civilians are adequately protected.

The effect of health financing systems on health system outcomes: A cross-country panel analysis.

Several low- and middle-income countries are considering health financing system reforms to accelerate progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). However, empirical evidence of the effect of health financing systems on health system outcomes is scarce, partly because it is difficult to quantitatively capture the 'health financing system'. We assign country-year observations to one of three health financing systems (i.e., predominantly out-of-pocket, social health insurance (SHI) or government-financed), using clustering based on out-of-pocket, contributory SHI and non-contributory government expenditure, as a percentage of total health expenditures. We then estimate the effect of these different systems on health system outcomes, using fixed effects regressions. We find that transitions from OOP-dominant to government-financed systems improved most outcomes more than did transitions to SHI systems. Transitions to government financing increases life expectancy (+1.3 years, p < 0.05) and reduces under-5 mortality (-8.7%, p < 0.05) and catastrophic health expenditure incidence (-3.3 percentage points, p < 0.05). Results are robust to several sensitivity tests. It is more likely that increases in non-contributory government financing rather than SHI financing improve health system outcomes. Notable reasons include SHI's higher implementation costs and more limited coverage. These results may raise a warning for policymakers considering SHI reforms to reach UHC.

The Effects and Costs of Personalized Budgets for People with Disabilities: A Systematic Review.

This article reviews the peer-reviewed and grey literature published from January 1985 to November 2022 that has quantitatively evaluated the effects of personalized budgets for people with disabilities (PwDs), in terms of a range of benefit and cost outcomes. Benefit metrics of interest comprised measures of well-being, service satisfaction and use, quality of life, health, and unmet needs. A search was conducted using the PsycINFO, MEDLINE, CINAHL, ASSIA, and Social Care Online databases. Based on inclusion criteria and a quality assessment using the Downs and Black Checklist, a final count of 23 studies were identified for in-depth review. Given the heterogeneous nature of the studies, a narrative synthesis, rather than a formal meta-analysis, was undertaken. Taking the relatively scarce and often methodologically limited evidence base at face value, the findings suggest that-overall-personalized budget users tend to benefit in terms of well-being and service satisfaction outcomes, with the exception of mixed effects for people with mental health conditions. Only a minority of studies have investigated the cost-effectiveness or costs-only of personalized budgets, finding mixed results. Two out of the three cost-effectiveness studies find personal budgets to be more cost-effective than alternative options, meaning that the possibly higher costs of personalized budgets may be more than outweighed by additional benefits. Some evidence looking at service use and/or costs only also points to significant reductions in certain service use areas, which at least hints at the potential that personalized budgeting may-in some cases-entail reduced costs. Further research is needed to explore the generalizability of these conclusions and to better capture and understand the factors driving the observed heterogeneity in some of the results.

Estimating the Health Effects of Expansions in Health Expenditure in Indonesia: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach.

BACKGROUND: The marginal productivity of a country's healthcare system refers to the health gains produced per unit change in the level of spending. In budget-constrained settings, this metric reflects the opportunity cost, in terms of health gains forgone, of committing additional or existing resources to alternative uses within the healthcare system. It can therefore assist in evidence-based decisions on whether different interventions represent good value for money. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper was to estimate the marginal productivity of the Indonesian healthcare system using subnational data, and to use this to inform health opportunity costs in the country. METHODS: We define a dynamic health production function to model the stream of effects of current and prior public health spending decisions on population under-five mortality. To estimate the model, we use data from the 33 Indonesian provinces for the 2004-2012 period. The estimated elasticity is then translated into gains in terms of cost per DALY (disability-adjusted life-year) averted. We use dynamic panel data methods to address potential endogeneity issues in the model. RESULTS: Our base-case estimates suggest that a 1% expansion in the level of health spending reduces under-five mortality by 0.38% (95% CI 0.00-0.76), which translates into a cost of averting one DALY of $235 (2019 US$). CONCLUSION: With Indonesia aiming for universal health coverage, our results support these efforts by highlighting the associated benefits resulting from increases in public health expenditure and have the potential to inform the decision-making process about a suitable locally relevant cost-effectiveness threshold.

The impact of civil conflict on child health: Evidence from Colombia.

Internal armed conflicts have become more common and more physically destructive since the mid-20th century, with devastating consequences for health and development in low- and middle-income countries. This paper investigates the causal impacts of the long-term internal conflict on child health in Colombia, following an identification strategy based on the temporal and geographic variation of conflict intensity. We estimate the effect of different levels of conflict intensity on height-for-age (HAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ), and weight-for-height z-scores among children under five years old, and explore the underlying potential mechanisms, through maternal health behavior and health care utilization. We find a harmful effect of exposure to conflict violence in utero and in early childhood for HAZ and WAZ, in the full sample and even more strongly in the rural sample, yet these estimates are smaller than those found for shorter term conflicts. The underlying pathways appear to operate around the time of the pregnancy and birth (in the form of maternal alcohol use, use of antenatal care and skilled birth attendance), rather than during the post-birth period (via breastfeeding or vaccination), and the impacts accumulate over the childhood. The most adverse impacts of conflict violence on child health and utilization of maternal healthcare were observed in municipalities which suffered from intermittent presence of armed groups.

Toward the economic evaluation of participatory approaches in health promotion: lessons from four German physical activity promotion projects.

Health promotion increasingly employs participatory approaches, but the question arises whether the likely higher costs of participation also translate into greater benefits. This article takes a first step toward a full health economic evaluation by comprehensively reporting the costs of a specific participatory approach, Cooperative Planning, in a German research consortium to promote physical activity. We conducted a costing analysis of Cooperative Planning at 22 sites across six settings. Project teams used a custom template to record resource use. We calculated average costs per meeting, site and setting using the opportunity costs approach, and obtained feedback from participating researchers. A total of 144 planning meetings with an average of nine participants were conducted. Costs per meeting varied significantly across settings. Differences were mostly attributable to varying meeting duration, preparation time and numbers of participants. Across settings, human resources accounted for roughly 95% of the costs. Implementing researchers reported challenges regarding the logic and methods of the health economic analysis. A participatory approach to physical activity promotion may cause substantially varying costs in different settings despite similar cost structures. However, their value for money could turn out comparably favorable if (and only if) the expected benefits is indeed forthcoming. Despite some challenges implementing the costing exercise into the logistics of ongoing participatory projects, this analysis may pave the way toward a full health economic evaluation, and the template may be useful to future participatory health promotion projects.

Health in Conflict Zones: Analyzing Inequalities in Mental Health in Colombian Conflict-Affected Territories.

Objectives: Colombia's civil conflict and persistent socio-economic disparities have contributed to mental health inequalities in conflict-affected territories. We explore the magnitude of mental health inequalities, contributing socio-economic factors, and sociodemographic characteristics that explain these differences. Methods: The study draws on data collected in 2018, using the household survey Conflicto, Paz y Salud (CONPAS) applied to 1,309 households in Meta, Colombia. Logistic regression and decomposition analysis were used to analyze the risk of mental health disorders, measured with the Self-Reporting Questionnaire -20 (SRQ-20). Results: Individuals with lower socio-economic status are at a higher risk for mental health disorders. Forced displacement accounts for 31% of the measured mental health inequalities. Disparities in employment, education level, disability and conflict incidence between municipalities are other contributing factors. Women and people with disabilities are respectively 2.3 and 1.2 times more prone to present a mental health disorder. Conclusion: It is necessary to tackle the identified risk factors and sociodemographic circumstances that contribute to mental health inequalities in conflict-affected territories, as these hinder adequate/equitable access to mental health services.

How to measure premature mortality? A proposal combining "relative" and "absolute" approaches.

BACKGROUND: The concept of "premature mortality" is at the heart of many national and global health measurement and benchmarking efforts. However, despite the intuitive appeal of its underlying concept, it is far from obvious how to best operationalise it. The previous work offers at least two basic approaches: an absolute and a relative one. The former-and far more widely used- approach sets a unique age threshold (e.g. 65 years), below which deaths are defined as premature. The relative approach derives the share of premature deaths from the country-specific age distribution of deaths in the country of interest. The biggest disadvantage of the absolute approach is that of using a unique, arbitrary threshold for different mortality patterns, while the main disadvantage of the relative approach is that its estimate of premature mortality strongly depends on how the senescent deaths distribution is defined in each country. METHOD: We propose to overcome some of the downsides of the existing approaches, by combining features of both, using a hierarchical model, in which senescent deaths distribution is held constant for each country as a pivotal quantity and the premature mortality distribution is allowed to vary across countries. In this way, premature mortality estimates become more comparable across countries with similar characteristics. RESULTS: The proposed hierarchical models provide results, which appear to align with related evidence from  specific countries. In particular, we find a relatively high premature mortality for the United States and Denmark. CONCLUSIONS: While our hybrid approach overcomes some of the problems of previous measures, some issues require further research, in particular the choice of the group of countries that a given country is assigned to and the choice of the benchmarks within the groups. Hence, our proposed method, combined with further study addressing these issues, could provide a valid alternative way to measure and compare premature mortality across countries.

The effect of TV viewing on children's obesity risk and mental well-being: Evidence from the UK digital switchover.

We examine the effect of screen-based activities on obesity and mental well-being for children, using a large survey dataset representative of the UK population and an event study model that exploits exogenous variation in the entry date of the digital television transition in the UK. The digital transition increased the number of available free television channels from 5 to 40, leading to a rise in television viewing time. Our results show that receiving access to digital television signal considerably increases the mental health total difficulties score among children, and that this impact grows over time. We also find suggestive evidence that the digital transition could have increased BMI for children. Underlying the net effects appear to be decreases in participation in social and physical activities.

Investigating unmet need for healthcare using the European Health Interview Survey: a cross-sectional survey study of Luxembourg.

OBJECTIVES: We investigate the prevalence of unmet need arising from wait times, distance/transportation and financial affordability using the European Health Interview Survey. We explore associations between individual characteristics and the probability of reporting unmet need. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey conducted between February and December 2014. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 4004 members of the resident population in private households registered with the health insurance fund in Luxembourg aged 15 years and over. OUTCOME MEASURES: Six binary variables that measured unmet need arising from wait time, distance/transportation and affordability of medical, dental and mental healthcare and prescribed medicines among those who reported a need for care. RESULTS: The most common barrier to access arose from wait times (32%) and the least common from distance/transportation (4%). Dental care (12%) was most often reported as unaffordable, followed by prescribed medicines (6%), medical (5%) and mental health (5%) care. Respondents who reported bad/very bad health were associated with a higher risk of unmet need compared with those with good/very good health (wait: OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.53 to 3.80, distance/transportation: OR 7.12, 95% CI 2.91 to 17.44, afford medical care: OR 5.35, 95% CI 2.39 to 11.95, afford dental care: OR 3.26, 95% CI 1.86 to 5.71, afford prescribed medicines: OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.04 to 4.71, afford mental healthcare: OR 3.58, 95% CI 1.25 to 10.30). Income between the fourth and fifth quintiles was associated with a lower risk of unmet need for dental care (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.53), prescribed medicines (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.82) and mental healthcare (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.61) compared with income between the first and second quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: Recent and planned reforms to address waiting times and financial barriers to accessing healthcare may help to address unmet need. In addition, policy-makers should consider additional policies targeted at high-risk groups with poor health and low incomes.