ABSTRACT
We collected relevant observational and measured annual-resolution time series dealing with climate in northern Europe, focusing in Finland. We analysed these series for the reliability of their temperature signal at annual and seasonal resolutions. Importantly, we analysed all of the indicators within the same statistical framework, which allows for their meaningful comparison. In this framework, we employed a cross-validation procedure designed to reduce the adverse effects of estimation bias that may inflate the reliability of various temperature indicators, especially when several indicators are used in a multiple regression model. In our data sets, timing of phenological observations and ice break-up were connected with spring, tree ring characteristics (width, density, carbon isotopic composition) with summer and ice formation with autumn temperatures. Baltic Sea ice extent and the duration of ice cover in different watercourses were good indicators of winter temperatures. Using combinations of various temperature indicator series resulted in reliable temperature signals for each of the four seasons, as well as a reliable annual temperature signal. The results hence demonstrated that we can obtain reliable temperature information over different seasons, using a careful selection of indicators, combining the results with regression analysis, and by determining the reliability of the obtained indicator.
Subject(s)
Climate , Temperature , Europe , Reproducibility of Results , Seasons , Trees/classificationABSTRACT
Data from a large-scale foliar survey were used to calculate the extent to which N and S deposition determined the mineral composition of Scots pine and Norway spruce needles in Finland. Foliar data were available from 367 needle samples collected on 36 plots sampled almost annually between 1987 and 2000. A literature study of controlled experiments revealed that acidifying deposition mediates increasing N and S concentrations, and decreasing Mg:N and Ca:Al ratios in the needles. When this fingerprint for N and S elevated deposition on tree foliage was observed simultaneously with increased N and S inputs, it was considered sufficient evidence for assuming that acidifying deposition had altered the mineral composition of tree needles on that plot in the given year. Evidence for deposition-induced changes in the mineral composition of tree foliage was calculated on the basis of a simple frequency model. In the late eighties the evidence was found on 43% of the Norway spruce and 27% of Scots pine plots. The proportion of changed needle mineral composition decreased to below 8% for both species in the late nineties.
Subject(s)
Air Pollutants/metabolism , Nitrogen/metabolism , Picea/chemistry , Pinus/chemistry , Plant Leaves/chemistry , Sulfur/metabolism , Acid Rain , Biotransformation , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Finland , Time Factors , TreesABSTRACT
This paper introduces the use of nutrition profiles as a first step in the development of a concept that is suitable for evaluating forest nutrition on the basis of large-scale foliar surveys. Nutrition profiles of a tree or stand were defined as the nutrient status, which accounts for all element concentrations, contents and interactions between two or more elements. Therefore a nutrition profile overcomes the shortcomings associated with the commonly used concepts for evaluating forest nutrition. Nutrition profiles can be calculated by means of a neural network, i.e. a self-organizing map, and an agglomerative clustering algorithm with pruning. As an example, nutrition profiles were calculated to describe the temporal variation in the mineral composition of Scots pine and Norway spruce needles in Finland between 1987 and 2000. The temporal trends in the frequency distribution of the nutrition profiles of Scots pine indicated that, between 1987 and 2000, the N, S, P, K, Ca, Mg and Al decreased, whereas the needle mass (NM) increased or remained unchanged. As there were no temporal trends in the frequency distribution of the nutrition profiles of Norway spruce, the mineral composition of the needles of Norway spruce needles subsequently did not change. Interpretation of the (lack of) temporal trends was outside the scope of this example. However, nutrition profiles prove to be a new and better concept for the evaluation of the mineral composition of large-scale surveys only when a biological interpretation of the nutrition profiles can be provided.
