How many patients do you need? Investigating trial designs for anti-seizure treatment in acute brain injury patients.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Epileptiform activity (EA), including seizures and periodic patterns, worsens outcomes in patients with acute brain injuries (e.g., aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage [aSAH]). Randomized control trials (RCTs) assessing anti-seizure interventions are needed. Due to scant drug efficacy data and ethical reservations with placebo utilization, and complex physiology of acute brain injury, RCTs are lacking or hindered by design constraints. We used a pharmacological model-guided simulator to design and determine the feasibility of RCTs evaluating EA treatment. METHODS: In a single-center cohort of adults (age >18) with aSAH and EA, we employed a mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic framework to model treatment response using observational data. We subsequently simulated RCTs for levetiracetam and propofol, each with three treatment arms mirroring clinical practice and an additional placebo arm. Using our framework, we simulated EA trajectories across treatment arms. We predicted discharge modified Rankin Scale as a function of baseline covariates, EA burden, and drug doses using a double machine learning model learned from observational data. Differences in outcomes across arms were used to estimate the required sample size. RESULTS: Sample sizes ranged from 500 for levetiracetam 7 mg/kg versus placebo, to >4000 for levetiracetam 15 versus 7 mg/kg to achieve 80% power (5% type I error). For propofol 1 mg/kg/h versus placebo, 1200 participants were needed. Simulations comparing propofol at varying doses did not reach 80% power even at samples >1200. CONCLUSIONS: Our simulations using drug efficacy show sample sizes are infeasible, even for potentially unethical placebo-control trials. We highlight the strength of simulations with observational data to inform the null hypotheses and propose use of this simulation-based RCT paradigm to assess the feasibility of future trials of anti-seizure treatment in acute brain injury.

From Sleep Patterns to Heart Rhythms: Predicting Atrial Fibrillation from Overnight Polysomnograms.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is often asymptomatic and thus under-observed. Given the high risks of stroke and heart failure among patients with AF, early prediction and effective management are crucial. Importantly, obstructive sleep apnea is highly prevalent among AF patients (60-90%); therefore, electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis from polysomnography (PSG), a standard diagnostic tool for subjects with suspected sleep apnea, presents a unique opportunity for the early prediction of AF. Our goal is to identify individuals at a high risk of developing AF in the future from a single-lead ECG recorded during standard PSGs. Methods: We analyzed 18,782 single-lead ECG recordings from 13,609 subjects at Massachusetts General Hospital, identifying AF presence using ICD-9/10 codes in medical records. Our dataset comprises 15,913 recordings without a medical record for AF and 2,056 recordings from patients who were first diagnosed with AF between 1 day to 15 years after the PSG recording. The PSG data were partitioned into training, validation, and test cohorts. In the first phase, a signal quality index (SQI) was calculated in 30-second windows and those with SQI < 0.95 were removed. From each remaining window, 150 hand-crafted features were extracted from time, frequency, time-frequency domains, and phase-space reconstructions of the ECG. A compilation of 12 statistical features summarized these window-specific features per recording, resulting in 1,800 features. We then updated a pre-trained deep neural network and data from the PhysioNet Challenge 2021 using transfer-learning to discriminate between recordings with and without AF using the same Challenge data. The model was applied to the PSG ECGs in 16-second windows to generate the probability of AF for each window. From the resultant probability sequence, 13 statistical features were extracted. Subsequently, we trained a shallow neural network to predict future AF using the extracted ECG and probability features. Results: On the test set, our model demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.67, specificity of 0.81, and precision of 0.3 for predicting AF. Further, survival analysis for AF outcomes, using the log-rank test, revealed a hazard ratio of 8.36 (p-value of 1.93 × 10 -52 ). Conclusions: Our proposed ECG analysis method, utilizing overnight PSG data, shows promise in AF prediction despite a modest precision indicating the presence of false positive cases. This approach could potentially enable low-cost screening and proactive treatment for high-risk patients. Ongoing refinement, such as integrating additional physiological parameters could significantly reduce false positives, enhancing its clinical utility and accuracy.

Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of using AI-enabled technology in sleep medicine: a commentary.

Over the past few years, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful tool used to efficiently automate several tasks across multiple domains. Sleep medicine is perfectly positioned to leverage this tool due to the wealth of physiological signals obtained through sleep studies or sleep tracking devices and abundance of accessible clinical data through electronic medical records. However, caution must be applied when utilizing AI, due to intrinsic challenges associated with novel technology. The Artificial Intelligence in Sleep Medicine committee of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) reviews advancements in AI within the sleep medicine field. In this article, the Artificial Intelligence in Sleep Medicine committee members provide a commentary on the scope of AI technology in sleep medicine. The commentary identifies three pivotal areas in sleep medicine which can benefit from AI technologies: clinical care, lifestyle management and population health management. This article provides a detailed analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with using AI enabled technologies in each pivotal area. Finally, the article broadly reviews barriers and challenges associated with using AI enabled technologies and offers possible solutions.

Altered Motor Activity Patterns within 10-Minute Timescale Predict Incident Clinical Alzheimer's Disease.

Background: Fractal motor activity regulation (FMAR), characterized by self-similar temporal patterns in motor activity across timescales, is robust in healthy young humans but degrades with aging and in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Objective: To determine the timescales where alterations of FMAR can best predict the clinical onset of AD. Methods: FMAR was assessed from actigraphy at baseline in 1,077 participants who had annual follow-up clinical assessments for up to 15 years. Survival analysis combined with deep learning (DeepSurv) was used to examine how baseline FMAR at different timescales from 3 minutes up to 6 hours contributed differently to the risk for incident clinical AD. Results: Clinical AD occurred in 270 participants during the follow-up. DeepSurv identified three potential regions of timescales in which FMAR alterations were significantly linked to the risk for clinical AD: <10, 20-40, and 100-200 minutes. Confirmed by the Cox and random survival forest models, the effect of FMAR alterations in the timescale of <10 minutes was the strongest, after adjusting for covariates. Conclusions: Subtle changes in motor activity fluctuations predicted the clinical onset of AD, with the strongest association observed in activity fluctuations at timescales <10 minutes. These findings suggest that short actigraphy recordings may be used to assess the risk of AD.

Classification of autism spectrum disorder using electroencephalography in Chinese children: a cross-sectional retrospective study.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental condition characterized by diverse clinical features. EEG biomarkers such as spectral power and functional connectivity have emerged as potential tools for enhancing early diagnosis and understanding of the neural processes underlying ASD. However, existing studies yield conflicting results, necessitating a comprehensive, data-driven analysis. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study involving 246 children with ASD and 42 control children. EEG was collected, and diverse EEG features, including spectral power and spectral coherence were extracted. Statistical inference methods, coupled with machine learning models, were employed to identify differences in EEG features between ASD and control groups and develop classification models for diagnostic purposes. Our analysis revealed statistically significant differences in spectral coherence, particularly in gamma and beta frequency bands, indicating elevated long range functional connectivity between frontal and parietal regions in the ASD group. Machine learning models achieved modest classification performance of ROC-AUC at 0.65. While machine learning approaches offer some discriminative power classifying individuals with ASD from controls, they also indicate the need for further refinement.

Assessing Risk of Health Outcomes From Brain Activity in Sleep: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background and Objectives: Patterns of electrical activity in the brain (EEG) during sleep are sensitive to various health conditions even at subclinical stages. The objective of this study was to estimate sleep EEG-predicted incidence of future neurologic, cardiovascular, psychiatric, and mortality outcomes. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study with 2 data sets. The Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) sleep data set is a clinic-based cohort, used for model development. The Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) is a community-based cohort, used as the external validation cohort. Exposure is good, average, or poor sleep defined by quartiles of sleep EEG-predicted risk. The outcomes include ischemic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, mild cognitive impairment, dementia, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, bipolar disorder, depression, and mortality. Diagnoses were based on diagnosis codes, brain imaging reports, medications, cognitive scores, and hospital records. We used the Cox survival model with death as the competing risk. Results: There were 8673 participants from MGH and 5650 from SHHS. For all outcomes, the model-predicted 10-year risk was within the 95% confidence interval of the ground truth, indicating good prediction performance. When comparing participants with poor, average, and good sleep, except for atrial fibrillation, all other 10-year risk ratios were significant. The model-predicted 10-year risk ratio closely matched the observed event rate in the external validation cohort. Discussion: The incidence of health outcomes can be predicted by brain activity during sleep. The findings strengthen the concept of sleep as an accessible biological window into unfavorable brain and general health outcomes.

Linking brain structure, cognition, and sleep: insights from clinical data.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To use relatively noisy routinely collected clinical data (brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, clinical polysomnography (PSG) recordings, and neuropsychological testing), to investigate hypothesis-driven and data-driven relationships between brain physiology, structure, and cognition. METHODS: We analyzed data from patients with clinical PSG, brain MRI, and neuropsychological evaluations. SynthSeg, a neural network-based tool, provided high-quality segmentations despite noise. A priori hypotheses explored associations between brain function (measured by PSG) and brain structure (measured by MRI). Associations with cognitive scores and dementia status were studied. An exploratory data-driven approach investigated age-structure-physiology-cognition links. RESULTS: Six hundred and twenty-three patients with sleep PSG and brain MRI data were included in this study; 160 with cognitive evaluations. Three hundred and forty-two participants (55%) were female, and age interquartile range was 52 to 69 years. Thirty-six individuals were diagnosed with dementia, 71 with mild cognitive impairment, and 326 with major depression. One hundred and fifteen individuals were evaluated for insomnia and 138 participants had an apnea-hypopnea index equal to or greater than 15. Total PSG delta power correlated positively with frontal lobe/thalamic volumes, and sleep spindle density with thalamic volume. rapid eye movement (REM) duration and amygdala volume were positively associated with cognition. Patients with dementia showed significant differences in five brain structure volumes. REM duration, spindle, and slow-oscillation features had strong associations with cognition and brain structure volumes. PSG and MRI features in combination predicted chronological age (R2 = 0.67) and cognition (R2 = 0.40). CONCLUSIONS: Routine clinical data holds extended value in understanding and even clinically using brain-sleep-cognition relationships.

Real-World Continuous EEG Utilization and Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients With Acute Cerebrovascular Diseases.

PURPOSE: Continuous electroencephalography (cEEG) is recommended for hospitalized patients with cerebrovascular diseases and suspected seizures or unexplained neurologic decline. We sought to (1) identify areas of practice variation in cEEG utilization, (2) determine predictors of cEEG utilization, (3) evaluate whether cEEG utilization is associated with outcomes in patients with cerebrovascular diseases. METHODS: This cohort study of the Premier Healthcare Database (2014-2020), included hospitalized patients age >18 years with cerebrovascular diseases (identified by ICD codes). Continuous electroencephalography was identified by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)/Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. Multivariable lasso logistic regression was used to identify predictors of cEEG utilization and in-hospital mortality. Propensity score-matched analysis was performed to determine the relation between cEEG use and mortality. RESULTS: 1,179,471 admissions were included; 16,777 (1.4%) underwent cEEG. Total number of cEEGs increased by 364% over 5 years (average 32%/year). On multivariable analysis, top five predictors of cEEG use included seizure diagnosis, hospitals with >500 beds, regions Northeast and South, and anesthetic use. Top predictors of mortality included use of mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, anesthetics, antiseizure medications, and age. Propensity analysis showed that cEEG was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (Average Treatment Effect -0.015 [95% confidence interval -0.028 to -0.003], Odds ratio 0.746 [95% confidence interval, 0.618-0.900]). CONCLUSIONS: There has been a national increase in cEEG utilization for hospitalized patients with cerebrovascular diseases, with practice variation. cEEG utilization was associated with lower in-hospital mortality. Larger comparative studies of cEEG-guided treatments are indicated to inform best practices, guide policy changes for increased access, and create guidelines on triaging and transferring patients to centers with cEEG capability.

Brain health scores to predict neurological outcomes from electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Preserving brain health is a critical priority in primary care, yet screening for these risk factors in face-to-face primary care visits is challenging to scale to large populations. We aimed to develop automated brain health risk scores calculated from data in the electronic health record (EHR) enabling population-wide brain health screening in advance of patient care visits. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients with visits to an outpatient neurology clinic at Massachusetts General Hospital, between January 2010 and March 2021. Survival analysis with an 11-year follow-up period was performed to predict the risk of intracranial hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, depression, death and composite outcome of dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and mild cognitive impairment. Variables included age, sex, vital signs, laboratory values, employment status and social covariates pertaining to marital, tobacco and alcohol status. Random sampling was performed to create a training (70%) set for hyperparameter tuning in internal 5-fold cross validation and an external hold-out testing (30%) set of patients, both stratified by age. Risk ratios for high and low risk groups were evaluated in the hold-out test set, using 1000 bootstrapping iterations to calculate 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The cohort comprised 17,040 patients with an average age of 49 ± 15.6 years; majority were males (57 %), White (78 %) and non-Hispanic (80 %). The low and high groups average risk ratios [95 % CI] were: intracranial hemorrhage 0.46 [0.45-0.48] and 2.07 [1.95-2.20], ischemic stroke 0.57 [0.57-0.59] and 1.64 [1.52-1.69], depression 0.68 [0.39-0.74] and 1.29 [0.78-1.38], composite of dementia 0.27 [0.26-0.28] and 3.52 [3.18-3.81] and death 0.24 [0.24-0.24] and 3.96 [3.91-4.00]. CONCLUSIONS: Simple risk scores derived from routinely collected EHR accurately quantify the risk of developing common neurologic and psychiatric diseases. These scores can be computed automatically, prior to medical care visits, and may thus be useful for large-scale brain health screening.

How Many Patients Do You Need? Investigating Trial Designs for Anti-Seizure Treatment in Acute Brain Injury Patients.

Objectives: Epileptiform activity (EA) worsens outcomes in patients with acute brain injuries (e.g., aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage [aSAH]). Randomized trials (RCTs) assessing anti-seizure interventions are needed. Due to scant drug efficacy data and ethical reservations with placebo utilization, RCTs are lacking or hindered by design constraints. We used a pharmacological model-guided simulator to design and determine feasibility of RCTs evaluating EA treatment. Methods: In a single-center cohort of adults (age >18) with aSAH and EA, we employed a mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic framework to model treatment response using observational data. We subsequently simulated RCTs for levetiracetam and propofol, each with three treatment arms mirroring clinical practice and an additional placebo arm. Using our framework we simulated EA trajectories across treatment arms. We predicted discharge modified Rankin Scale as a function of baseline covariates, EA burden, and drug doses using a double machine learning model learned from observational data. Differences in outcomes across arms were used to estimate the required sample size. Results: Sample sizes ranged from 500 for levetiracetam 7 mg/kg vs placebo, to >4000 for levetiracetam 15 vs. 7 mg/kg to achieve 80% power (5% type I error). For propofol 1mg/kg/hr vs. placebo 1200 participants were needed. Simulations comparing propofol at varying doses did not reach 80% power even at samples >1200. Interpretation: Our simulations using drug efficacy show sample sizes are infeasible, even for potentially unethical placebo-control trials. We highlight the strength of simulations with observational data to inform the null hypotheses and assess feasibility of future trials of EA treatment.

Automated detection of immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome via quantitative EEG.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an automated, physiologic metric of immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome among patients undergoing chimeric antigen receptor-T cell therapy. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study from 2016 to 2020 at two tertiary care centers among patients receiving chimeric antigen receptor-T cell therapy with a CD19 or B-cell maturation antigen ligand. We determined the daily neurotoxicity grade for each patient during EEG monitoring via chart review and extracted clinical variables and outcomes from the electronic health records. Using quantitative EEG features, we developed a machine learning model to detect the presence and severity of neurotoxicity, known as the EEG immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome score. RESULTS: The EEG immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome score significantly correlated with the grade of neurotoxicity with a median Spearman's R2 of 0.69 (95% CI of 0.59-0.77). The mean area under receiving operator curve was greater than 0.85 for each binary discrimination level. The score also showed significant correlations with maximum ferritin (R2 0.24, p = 0.008), minimum platelets (R2 -0.29, p = 0.001), and dexamethasone usage (R2 0.42, p < 0.0001). The score significantly correlated with duration of neurotoxicity (R2 0.31, p < 0.0001). INTERPRETATION: The EEG immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome score possesses high criterion, construct, and predictive validity, which substantiates its use as a physiologic method to detect the presence and severity of neurotoxicity among patients undergoing chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy.

Decoding information about cognitive health from the brainwaves of sleep.

Sleep electroencephalogram (EEG) signals likely encode brain health information that may identify individuals at high risk for age-related brain diseases. Here, we evaluate the correlation of a previously proposed brain age biomarker, the "brain age index" (BAI), with cognitive test scores and use machine learning to develop and validate a series of new sleep EEG-based indices, termed "sleep cognitive indices" (SCIs), that are directly optimized to correlate with specific cognitive scores. Three overarching cognitive processes were examined: total, fluid (a measure of cognitive processes involved in reasoning-based problem solving and susceptible to aging and neuropathology), and crystallized cognition (a measure of cognitive processes involved in applying acquired knowledge toward problem-solving). We show that SCI decoded information about total cognition (Pearson's r = 0.37) and fluid cognition (Pearson's r = 0.56), while BAI correlated only with crystallized cognition (Pearson's r = - 0.25). Overall, these sleep EEG-derived biomarkers may provide accessible and clinically meaningful indicators of neurocognitive health.

Effects of epileptiform activity on discharge outcome in critically ill patients in the USA: a retrospective cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Epileptiform activity is associated with worse patient outcomes, including increased risk of disability and death. However, the effect of epileptiform activity on neurological outcome is confounded by the feedback between treatment with antiseizure medications and epileptiform activity burden. We aimed to quantify the heterogeneous effects of epileptiform activity with an interpretability-centred approach. METHODS: We did a retrospective, cross-sectional study of patients in the intensive care unit who were admitted to Massachusetts General Hospital (Boston, MA, USA). Participants were aged 18 years or older and had electrographic epileptiform activity identified by a clinical neurophysiologist or epileptologist. The outcome was the dichotomised modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at discharge and the exposure was epileptiform activity burden defined as mean or maximum proportion of time spent with epileptiform activity in 6 h windows in the first 24 h of electroencephalography. We estimated the change in discharge mRS if everyone in the dataset had experienced a specific epileptiform activity burden and were untreated. We combined pharmacological modelling with an interpretable matching method to account for confounding and epileptiform activity-antiseizure medication feedback. The quality of the matched groups was validated by the neurologists. FINDINGS: Between Dec 1, 2011, and Oct 14, 2017, 1514 patients were admitted to Massachusetts General Hospital intensive care unit, 995 (66%) of whom were included in the analysis. Compared with patients with a maximum epileptiform activity of 0 to less than 25%, patients with a maximum epileptiform activity burden of 75% or more when untreated had a mean 22·27% (SD 0·92) increased chance of a poor outcome (severe disability or death). Moderate but long-lasting epileptiform activity (mean epileptiform activity burden 2% to <10%) increased the risk of a poor outcome by mean 13·52% (SD 1·93). The effect sizes were heterogeneous depending on preadmission profile-eg, patients with hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy or acquired brain injury were more adversely affected compared with patients without these conditions. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that interventions should put a higher priority on patients with an average epileptiform activity burden 10% or greater, and treatment should be more conservative when maximum epileptiform activity burden is low. Treatment should also be tailored to individual preadmission profiles because the potential for epileptiform activity to cause harm depends on age, medical history, and reason for admission. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation.

Classification of neurologic outcomes from medical notes using natural language processing.

Neurologic disability level at hospital discharge is an important outcome in many clinical research studies. Outside of clinical trials, neurologic outcomes must typically be extracted by labor intensive manual review of clinical notes in the electronic health record (EHR). To overcome this challenge, we set out to develop a natural language processing (NLP) approach that automatically reads clinical notes to determine neurologic outcomes, to make it possible to conduct larger scale neurologic outcomes studies. We obtained 7314 notes from 3632 patients hospitalized at two large Boston hospitals between January 2012 and June 2020, including discharge summaries (3485), occupational therapy (1472) and physical therapy (2357) notes. Fourteen clinical experts reviewed notes to assign scores on the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) with 4 classes, namely 'good recovery', 'moderate disability', 'severe disability', and 'death' and on the Modified Rankin Scale (mRS), with 7 classes, namely 'no symptoms', 'no significant disability', 'slight disability', 'moderate disability', 'moderately severe disability', 'severe disability', and 'death'. For 428 patients' notes, 2 experts scored the cases generating interrater reliability estimates for GOS and mRS. After preprocessing and extracting features from the notes, we trained a multiclass logistic regression model using LASSO regularization and 5-fold cross validation for hyperparameter tuning. The model performed well on the test set, achieving a micro average area under the receiver operating characteristic and F-score of 0.94 (95% CI 0.93-0.95) and 0.77 (0.75-0.80) for GOS, and 0.90 (0.89-0.91) and 0.59 (0.57-0.62) for mRS, respectively. Our work demonstrates that an NLP algorithm can accurately assign neurologic outcomes based on free text clinical notes. This algorithm increases the scale of research on neurological outcomes that is possible with EHR data.

Sample Size Analysis for Machine Learning Clinical Validation Studies.

BACKGROUND: Before integrating new machine learning (ML) into clinical practice, algorithms must undergo validation. Validation studies require sample size estimates. Unlike hypothesis testing studies seeking a p-value, the goal of validating predictive models is obtaining estimates of model performance. There is no standard tool for determining sample size estimates for clinical validation studies for machine learning models. METHODS: Our open-source method, Sample Size Analysis for Machine Learning (SSAML) was described and was tested in three previously published models: brain age to predict mortality (Cox Proportional Hazard), COVID hospitalization risk prediction (ordinal regression), and seizure risk forecasting (deep learning). RESULTS: Minimum sample sizes were obtained in each dataset using standardized criteria. DISCUSSION: SSAML provides a formal expectation of precision and accuracy at a desired confidence level. SSAML is open-source and agnostic to data type and ML model. It can be used for clinical validation studies of ML models.

Sleep staging in the ICU with heart rate variability and breathing signals. An exploratory cross-sectional study using deep neural networks.

Introduction: To measure sleep in the intensive care unit (ICU), full polysomnography is impractical, while activity monitoring and subjective assessments are severely confounded. However, sleep is an intensely networked state, and reflected in numerous signals. Here, we explore the feasibility of estimating conventional sleep indices in the ICU with heart rate variability (HRV) and respiration signals using artificial intelligence methods Methods: We used deep learning models to stage sleep with HRV (through electrocardiogram) and respiratory effort (through a wearable belt) signals in critically ill adult patients admitted to surgical and medical ICUs, and in age and sex-matched sleep laboratory patients Results: We studied 102 adult patients in the ICU across multiple days and nights, and 220 patients in a clinical sleep laboratory. We found that sleep stages predicted by HRV- and breathing-based models showed agreement in 60% of the ICU data and in 81% of the sleep laboratory data. In the ICU, deep NREM (N2 + N3) proportion of total sleep duration was reduced (ICU 39%, sleep laboratory 57%, p < 0.01), REM proportion showed heavy-tailed distribution, and the number of wake transitions per hour of sleep (median 3.6) was comparable to sleep laboratory patients with sleep-disordered breathing (median 3.9). Sleep in the ICU was also fragmented, with 38% of sleep occurring during daytime hours. Finally, patients in the ICU showed faster and less variable breathing patterns compared to sleep laboratory patients Conclusion: The cardiovascular and respiratory networks encode sleep state information, which, together with artificial intelligence methods, can be utilized to measure sleep state in the ICU.

The sleep and wake electroencephalogram over the lifespan.

Both sleep and wake encephalograms (EEG) change over the lifespan. While prior studies have characterized age-related changes in the EEG, the datasets span a particular age group, or focused on sleep and wake macrostructure rather than the microstructure. Here, we present sex-stratified data from 3372 community-based or clinic-based otherwise neurologically and psychiatrically healthy participants ranging from 11 days to 80 years of age. We estimate age norms for key sleep and wake EEG parameters including absolute and relative powers in delta, theta, alpha, and sigma bands, as well as sleep spindle density, amplitude, duration, and frequency. To illustrate the potential use of the reference measures developed herein, we compare them to sleep EEG recordings from age-matched participants with Alzheimer's disease, severe sleep apnea, depression, osteoarthritis, and osteoporosis. Although the partially clinical nature of the datasets may bias the findings towards less normal and hence may underestimate pathology in practice, age-based EEG reference values enable objective screening of deviations from healthy aging among individuals with a variety of disorders that affect brain health.

Prediction of operative mortality for patients undergoing cardiac surgical procedures without established risk scores.

OBJECTIVE: Current cardiac surgery risk models do not address a substantial fraction of procedures. We sought to create models to predict the risk of operative mortality for an expanded set of cases. METHODS: Four supervised machine learning models were trained using preoperative variables present in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) data set of the Massachusetts General Hospital to predict and classify operative mortality in procedures without STS risk scores. A total of 424 (5.5%) mortality events occurred out of 7745 cases. Models included logistic regression with elastic net regularization (LogReg), support vector machine, random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosted trees (XGBoost). Model discrimination was assessed via area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed via calibration slope and expected-to-observed event ratio. External validation was performed using STS data sets from Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) and the Johns Hopkins Hospital (JHH). RESULTS: Models performed comparably with the highest mean AUC of 0.83 (RF) and expected-to-observed event ratio of 1.00. On external validation, the AUC was 0.81 in BWH (RF) and 0.79 in JHH (LogReg/RF). Models trained and applied on the same institution's data achieved AUCs of 0.81 (BWH: LogReg/RF/XGBoost) and 0.82 (JHH: LogReg/RF/XGBoost). CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models trained on preoperative patient data can predict operative mortality at a high level of accuracy for cardiac surgical procedures without established risk scores. Such procedures comprise 23% of all cardiac surgical procedures nationwide. This work also highlights the value of using local institutional data to train new prediction models that account for institution-specific practices.