ABSTRACT
The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.
Subject(s)
Crops, Agricultural/drug effects , Disaster Planning/methods , Emergency Medical Services/methods , Models, Theoretical , Radioactive Hazard Release/prevention & control , Radioactive Pollutants/toxicity , Crops, Agricultural/metabolism , Decision Making , Disaster Planning/legislation & jurisprudence , Disaster Planning/organization & administration , Eating , Emergency Medical Services/legislation & jurisprudence , Emergency Medical Services/organization & administration , Food Contamination, Radioactive/analysis , Food Contamination, Radioactive/prevention & control , Humans , Radiation Dosage , Radioactive Hazard Release/legislation & jurisprudence , Radioactive Pollutants/metabolism , Risk Management/legislation & jurisprudence , Risk Management/methods , Risk Management/organization & administrationABSTRACT
The ECOSYS model is used to estimate ingestion dose in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. It is recommended that nation-specific values for several parameters are used in the model. However, this is generally overlooked when the systems are used in practice. We have estimated first year ingestion doses in two scenarios with wet and dry deposition of (137)Cs, using the ECOSYS model. We calculated doses for each country using national dietary data while keeping all other parameters at their default values. These dose calculations were then used to estimate the variation in ingestion doses resulting from the variation in the diets only. The dietary data demonstrated that the average consumption of milk, meat and vegetables varied by a factor of 2-4 among the Nordic countries. For both scenarios, the ingestion doses varied by a factor of about 2, among the countries. For all countries, the model predictions were most sensitive to changes in milk, beef and wheat consumption. The results demonstrate that recent and reliable dietary data are required to reliably estimate ingestion doses.