Agent-Based Modelling Reveals the Role of the Tumor Microenvironment on the Short-Term Success of Combination Temozolomide/Immune Checkpoint Blockade to Treat Glioblastoma.

Glioblastoma is the most common and deadly primary brain tumor in adults. All glioblastoma patients receiving standard-of-care surgery-radiotherapy-chemotherapy (i.e., temozolomide (TMZ)) recur, with an average survival time of only 15 months. New approaches to the treatment of glioblastoma, including immune checkpoint blockade and oncolytic viruses, offer the possibility of improving glioblastoma outcomes and have as such been under intense study. Unfortunately, these treatment modalities have thus far failed to achieve approval. Recently, in an attempt to bolster efficacy and improve patient outcomes, regimens combining chemotherapy and immune checkpoint inhibitors have been tested in trials. Unfortunately, these efforts have not resulted in significant increases to patient survival. To better understand the various factors impacting treatment outcomes of combined TMZ and immune checkpoint blockade, we developed a systems-level, computational model that describes the interplay between glioblastoma, immune, and stromal cells with this combination treatment. Initializing our model to spatial resection patient samples labeled using imaging mass cytometry, our model's predictions show how the localization of glioblastoma cells, influence therapeutic success. We further validated these predictions in samples of brain metastases from patients given they generally respond better to checkpoint blockade compared with primary glioblastoma. Ultimately, our model provides novel insights into the mechanisms of therapeutic success of immune checkpoint inhibitors in brain tumors and delineates strategies to translate combination immunotherapy regimens more effectively into the clinic. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Extending survival times for glioblastoma patients remains a critical challenge. Although immunotherapies in combination with chemotherapy hold promise, clinical trials have not shown much success. Here, systems models calibrated to and validated against patient samples can improve preclinical and clinical studies by shedding light on the factors distinguishing responses/failures. By initializing our model with imaging mass cytometry visualization of patient samples, we elucidate how factors such as localization of glioblastoma cells and CD8+ T cell infiltration impact treatment outcomes.

Population dynamics with spatial structure and an Allee effect.

Population dynamics including a strong Allee effect describe the situation where long-term population survival or extinction depends on the initial population density. A simple mathematical model of an Allee effect is one where initial densities below the threshold lead to extinction, whereas initial densities above the threshold lead to survival. Mean-field models of population dynamics neglect spatial structure that can arise through short-range interactions, such as competition and dispersal. The influence of non-mean-field effects has not been studied in the presence of an Allee effect. To address this, we develop an individual-based model that incorporates both short-range interactions and an Allee effect. To explore the role of spatial structure we derive a mathematically tractable continuum approximation of the IBM in terms of the dynamics of spatial moments. In the limit of long-range interactions where the mean-field approximation holds, our modelling framework recovers the mean-field Allee threshold. We show that the Allee threshold is sensitive to spatial structure neglected by mean-field models. For example, there are cases where the mean-field model predicts extinction but the population actually survives. Through simulations we show that our new spatial moment dynamics model accurately captures the modified Allee threshold in the presence of spatial structure.

Spatial structure arising from chase-escape interactions with crowding.

Movement of individuals, mediated by localised interactions, plays a key role in numerous processes including cell biology and ecology. In this work, we investigate an individual-based model accounting for various intraspecies and interspecies interactions in a community consisting of two distinct species. In this framework we consider one species to be chasers and the other species to be escapees, and we focus on chase-escape dynamics where the chasers are biased to move towards the escapees, and the escapees are biased to move away from the chasers. This framework allows us to explore how individual-level directional interactions scale up to influence spatial structure at the macroscale. To focus exclusively on the role of motility and directional bias in determining spatial structure, we consider conservative communities where the number of individuals in each species remains constant. To provide additional information about the individual-based model, we also present a mathematically tractable deterministic approximation based on describing the evolution of the spatial moments. We explore how different features of interactions including interaction strength, spatial extent of interaction, and relative density of species influence the formation of the macroscale spatial patterns.

First-passage time statistics of stochastic transcription process for time-dependent reaction rates.

Transcription in gene expression is an intrinsically noisy process which involves production and degradation of mRNAs. An important quantity to describe this stochastic process is the first-passage time (FPT), i.e., the time taken by mRNAs to reach a particular threshold. The process of transcription can be modelled as a simple birth-death process, assuming that the promoter is always in an active state and to encode the stochastic environment we consider the transcription rate to be time dependent. This generalization is suitable to capture bursty mRNA dynamics usually modelled as an ON-Off model and simplifies the calculation of FPT statistics for a cell population. We study the role of periodic modulation of the transcription rate on different moments of FPT distribution of a population of cells. Our calculation shows that for sinusoidal modulation there exists an extremal value of mean FPT as a function of the time period and phase of the transcription signal. However, for the square wave modulation of transcription rates simulation results show that the extremal value of the MFPT behaves monotonically with the variation of the phase.

Spatial Moment Description of Birth-Death-Movement Processes Incorporating the Effects of Crowding and Obstacles.

Birth-death-movement processes, modulated by interactions between individuals, are fundamental to many cell biology processes. A key feature of the movement of cells within in vivo environments is the interactions between motile cells and stationary obstacles. Here we propose a multi-species model of individual-level motility, proliferation and death. This model is a spatial birth-death-movement stochastic process, a class of individual-based model (IBM) that is amenable to mathematical analysis. We present the IBM in a general multi-species framework and then focus on the case of a population of motile, proliferative agents in an environment populated by stationary, non-proliferative obstacles. To analyse the IBM, we derive a system of spatial moment equations governing the evolution of the density of agents and the density of pairs of agents. This approach avoids making the usual mean-field assumption so that our models can be used to study the formation of spatial structure, such as clustering and aggregation, and to understand how spatial structure influences population-level outcomes. Overall the spatial moment model provides a reasonably accurate prediction of the system dynamics, including important effects such as how varying the properties of the obstacles leads to different spatial patterns in the population of agents.

Estimation of mean first passage time for bursty gene expression.

Gene expression is an intrinsically noisy process, typically, producing mRNAs and proteins in bursts. An important description of such stochastic processes can be done in terms of the mean first passage time (MFPT), i.e., the time taken by mRNAs/proteins to reach a particular threshold. We study the role of burstiness on MFPT and obtain an analytical expression for different models of transcriptional and translational bursts. Our analytical results and numerical simulations confirm that MFPT monotonically decreases with burstiness.