Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases.

Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990's there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.

Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus--a dengue threat for southern Australia?

Aedes albopictus, the so-called 'Asian tiger mosquito,' which has invaded areas of the Pacific, the Americas, Africa and Europe, and been intercepted in various Australian seaports in recent years, has now become established on a number of Torres Strait islands in northern Queensland and threatens to invade mainland Australia. As well as being a significant pest with day-biting tendencies, Ae. albopictus is a vector of dengue viruses and is capable of transmitting a number of other arboviruses. The species colonises domestic and peri-domestic containers, and can establish in temperate areas with cold winters. According to predictions made using the CSIRO climate matching software CLIMEX, Ae. albopictus could become established elsewhere in Australia, including southern Australia, and lead to these areas becoming receptive to dengue infections-a condition that currently does not exist because the vector Aedes aegypti is confined to Queensland and no species in southern Australia is known to be capable of transmitting dengue.

Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases.

Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health.