The effect of local hospital waiting times on GP referrals for suspected cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing waiting times is a major policy objective in publicly-funded healthcare systems. However, reductions in waiting times can produce a demand response, which may offset increases in capacity. Early detection and diagnosis of cancer is a policy focus in many OECD countries, but prolonged waiting periods for specialist confirmation of diagnosis could impede this goal. We examine whether urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer patients are responsive to local hospital waiting times. METHOD: We used annual counts of referrals from all 6,667 general practices to all 185 hospital Trusts in England between April 2012 and March 2018. Using a practice-level measure of local hospital waiting times based on breaches of the two-week maximum waiting time target, we examined the relationship between waiting times and urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer. To identify whether the relationship is driven by differences between practices or changes over time, we estimated three regression models: pooled linear regression, a between-practice estimator, and a within-practice estimator. RESULTS: Ten percent higher rates of patients breaching the two-week wait target in local hospitals were associated with higher volumes of referrals in the pooled linear model (4.4%; CI 2.4% to 6.4%) and the between-practice estimator (12.0%; CI 5.5% to 18.5%). The relationship was not statistically significant using the within-practice estimator (1.0%; CI -0.4% to 2.5%). CONCLUSION: The positive association between local hospital waiting times and GP demand for specialist diagnosis was caused by practices with higher levels of referrals facing longer local waiting times. Temporal changes in waiting times faced by individual practices were not related to changes in their referral volumes. GP referrals for diagnostic cancer services were not found to respond to waiting times in the short-term. In this setting, it may therefore be possible to reduce waiting times by increasing supply without consequently increasing demand.

The CATFISH study: An evaluation of a water fluoridation program in Cumbria, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to assess the effectiveness of a Water Fluoridation program on a contemporary population of children. METHODS: The study used a longitudinal prospective cohort design. In Cumbria, England, two groups of children were recruited and observed over a period of 5-6 years. The Birth Cohort consisted of families recruited from two hospitals in Cumbria where children were conceived after water fluoridation was reintroduced. The systemic and topical effects of community water fluoridation were evaluated in the Birth Cohort. The Older Cohort were approximately 5 years old and recruited from primary schools in Cumbria, shortly after water fluoridation was reintroduced. The predominantly topical effects of fluoridated water were evaluated in the Older Cohort. The primary outcome was the proportion of children with clinical evidence of caries experience in their primary (Birth Cohort) or permanent teeth (Older Cohort). Unadjusted and adjusted regression models were used for analysis. RESULTS: The final clinical examinations for the Birth Cohort involved 1444 participants (mean age 4.8 years), where 17.4% of children in the intervention group were found to have caries experience, compared to 21.4% in the control group. A beneficial effect of water fluoridation was observed adjusting for deprivation (a socioeconomic measure), sex, and age, (adjusted odds ratio 0.74 95% CI 0.55 to 0.98). The final Older Cohort clinical examinations involved 1192 participants (mean age 10.8 years) where 19.1% of children in the intervention group were found to have caries experience compared to 21.9% in the control group (adjusted odds ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.09). For both the Birth Cohort and Older Cohort there was evidence of a beneficial effect on dmft/DMFT count (IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44, 0.86) and (IRR 0.69, 95% CI 0.52, 0.93) respectively. No conclusive proof was found to indicate that the effectiveness of water fluoridation differed across area deprivation quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: In the contemporary context of lower caries levels and widespread use of fluoride toothpaste, the impact of water fluoridation on the prevalence of caries was smaller than previous studies have reported. It is important to consider the clinical importance of the absolute reduction in caries prevalence against the use of other dental caries preventive measures.

Association between regulator inspection and ratings on primary care prescribing: an observational study in England 2014 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare regulators in many countries undertake inspections of healthcare providers and publish inspection outcomes with the intention of improving quality of care. Comprehensive inspections of general practices in England by the Care Quality Commission began for the first time in 2014. It is assumed that inspection and rating will raise standards and improve care, but the presence and extent of any improvements is unknown. We aim to determine if practice inspection ratings are associated with past performance on prescribing indicators and if prescribing behaviour changes following inspection. METHODS: Longitudinal study using a dataset of 6771 general practices in England. Practice inspection date and score was linked with monthly practice-level data on prescribing indicators relating to antibiotics, hypnotics and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The sample covers practices receiving their first inspection between September 2014 and December 2018. Regression analysis and the differential timing of inspections is used to identify the impact on prescribing. RESULTS: Better-rated practices had better prescribing in the period before inspections began. In the six months following inspections, no overall change in prescribing was observed. However, the differences between the best and worse rated practices were reduced but not fully. The same is also true when taking a longer-term view. There is little evidence that practices responded in anticipation of inspection or reacted differently once the ratings were made public. CONCLUSION: While some of the observed historic variation in prescribing behaviour has been lessened by the process of inspection and ratings, we find this change is small and appears to come from both improvements among lower-rated practices and deteriorations among higher-rated practices. While inspection and rating no doubt had other impacts, these prescribing indicators were largely unchanged.

Free-for-all: Does crowding impact outcomes because hospital emergency departments do not prioritise effectively?

Unexpected peaks in volumes of attendances at hospital emergency departments (EDs) have been found to affect waiting times, intensity of care and outcomes. We ask whether these effects of ED crowding on patients are caused by poor clinical prioritisation or a quality-quantity trade-off generated by a binding capacity constraint. We study the effects of crowding created by lower-severity patients on the outcomes of approximately 13 million higher-severity patients attending the 140 public EDs in England between April 2016 and March 2017. Our identification approach relies on high-dimensional fixed effects to account for planned capacity. Unexpected demand from low-severity patients has very limited effects on the care provided to higher-severity patients throughout their entire pathway in ED. Detrimental effects of crowding caused by low-severity patients materialise only at very high levels of unexpected demand, suggesting that binding resource constraints impact patient care only when demand greatly exceeds the ED's expectations. These effects are smaller than those caused by crowding induced by higher-severity patients, suggesting an efficient prioritisation of incoming patients in EDs.

The impact of devolution on local health systems: Evidence from Greater Manchester, England.

Devolution and decentralisation policies involving health and other government sectors have been promoted with a view to improve efficiency and equity in local service provision. Evaluations of these reforms have focused on specific health or care measures, but little is known about their full impact on local health systems. We evaluated the impact of devolution in Greater Manchester (England) on multiple outcomes using a whole system approach. We estimated the impact of devolution until February 2020 on 98 measures of health system performance, using the generalised synthetic control method and adjusting for multiple hypothesis testing. We selected measures from existing monitoring frameworks to populate the WHO Health System Performance Assessment framework. The included measures captured information on health system functions, intermediatory objectives, final goals, and social determinants of health. We identified which indicators were targeted in response to devolution from an analysis of 170 health policy intervention documents. Life expectancy (0.233 years, S.E. 0.012) and healthy life expectancy (0.603 years, S.E. 0.391) increased more in GM than in the estimated synthetic control group following devolution. These increases were driven by improvements in public health, primary care, hospital, and adult social care services as well as factors associated with social determinants of health, including a reduction in alcohol-related admissions (-110.1 admission per 100,000, S.E. 9.07). In contrast, the impact on outpatient, mental health, maternity, and dental services was mixed. Devolution was associated with improved population health, driven by improvements in health services and wider social determinants of health. These changes occurred despite limited devolved powers over health service resources suggesting that other mechanisms played an important role, including the allocation of sustainability and transformation funding and the alignment of decision-making across health, social care, and wider public services in the region.

What remains after the money ends? Evidence on whether admission reductions continued following the largest health and social care integration programme in England.

We study the long-term effects on hospital activity of a three-year national integration programme. We use administrative data spanning from 24 months before to 22 months after the programme, to estimate the effect of programme discontinuation using difference-in-differences method. Our results show that after programme discontinuation, emergency admissions were slower to increase in Vanguard compared to non-Vanguard sites. These effects were heterogeneous across sites, with greater reductions in care home Vanguard sites and concentrated among the older population. Care home Vanguards showed significant reductions beginning early in the programme but falling away more rapidly after programme discontinuation. Moreover, there were greater reductions for sites performing poorly before the programme. Overall, this suggests the effects of the integration programme might have been lagged but transitory, and more reliant on continued programme support.

Economic evaluation of a water fluoridation scheme in Cumbria, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The addition of fluoride to community drinking water supplies has been a long-standing public health intervention to improve dental health. However, the evidence of cost-effectiveness in the UK currently lacks a contemporary focus, being limited to a period with higher incidence of caries. A water fluoridation scheme in West Cumbria, United Kingdom, provided a unique opportunity to study the contemporary impact of water fluoridation. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of water fluoridation over a 5-6 years follow-up period in two distinct cohorts: children exposed to water fluoridation in utero and those exposed from the age of 5. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness was summarized employing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained). Costs included those from the National Health Service (NHS) and local authority perspective, encompassing capital and running costs of water fluoridation, as well as NHS dental activity. The measure of health benefit was the QALY, with utility determined using the Child Health Utility 9-Dimension questionnaire. To account for uncertainty, estimates of net cost and outcomes were bootstrapped (10 000 bootstraps) to generate cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analysis performed with alternative specifications. RESULTS: There were 306 participants in the birth cohort (189 and 117 in the non-fluoridated and fluoridated groups, respectively) and 271 in the older school cohort (159 and 112, respectively). In both cohorts, there was evidence of small gains in QALYs for the fluoridated group compared to the non-fluoridated group and reductions in NHS dental service cost that exceeded the cost of fluoridation. For both cohorts and across all sensitivity analyses, there were high probabilities (>62%) of water fluoridation being cost-effective with a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides current economic evidence that water fluoridation is likely to be cost-effective. The findings contribute valuable contemporary evidence in support of the economic viability of water fluoridation scheme.

Associations between corporate ownership of primary care providers and doctor wellbeing, workload, access, organizational efficiency, and service quality.

Traditionally, in many countries general practices have been privately-owned independent small businesses. However, the last three decades has seen the rise of large corporate medical groups defined as private companies which are able to have non-GP shareholders and with branches across many locations. The greater prominence of profit motives may have implications for costs, access to care and quality of care. We estimate that 45% of GPs in Australia worked in a practice that was a private company, and within this group over one third (19.9% of total) worked in a corporate medical group (a private company with 10 or more practice locations). We examine the association between being in a corporate medical group and 19 outcomes classified into five groups: GP wellbeing, workload, patient access, organizational efficiency, and service quality. GPs who worked in such groups were more likely to be older, qualified overseas, and to have a conscientious personality. There was mixed evidence on GPs wellbeing, with GPs in corporate medical groups reporting a higher turnover of GPs but similar levels of job satisfaction. GP workload was similar in terms of hours worked and after hours work but they reported a lower work-life balance. Patient access was better in terms of lower fees charged to patients but there was weak evidence that patients waited longer. GPs in corporate medical groups reported higher organisational efficiency because GPs spent less time spent on administration and management, had more nurses per GP, but despite this GPs were more likely to undertake tasks someone less qualified could do suggesting that nurses were complements not substitutes. There were no differences in service quality (teaching, patient complaints, consultation length, patients seen per hour). Corporate medical groups have become a substantial part of primary care provision in Australia. There is evidence they are more efficient, patient access is better with lower out of pocket costs and there are no differences in our measures service quality, but concerns remain about GP's wellbeing and work-life balance. Further research is needed on continuity of care and patient reported experiences and health outcomes.

How do hospitals respond to payment unbundling for diagnostic imaging of suspected cancer patients?

Payments for some diagnostic scans undertaken in outpatient settings were unbundled from Diagnosis Related Group based payments in England in April 2013 to address under-provision. Unbundled scans attracted additional payments of between £45 and £748 directly following the reform. We examined the effect on utilization of these scans for patients with suspected cancer. We also explored whether any detected effects represented real increases in use of scans or better coding of activity. We applied difference-in-differences regression to patient-level data from Hospital Episodes Statistics for 180 NHS hospital Trusts in England, between April 2010 and March 2018. We also explored heterogeneity in recorded use of scans before and after the unbundling at hospital Trust-level. Use of scans increased by 0.137 scans per patient following unbundling, a 134% relative increase. This increased annual national provider payments by £79.2 million. Over 15% of scans recorded after the unbundling were at providers that previously recorded no scans, suggesting some of the observed increase in activity reflected previous under-coding. Hospitals recorded substantial increases in diagnostic imaging for suspected cancer in response to payment unbundling. Results suggest that the reform also encouraged improvements in recording, so the real increase in testing is likely lower than detected.

Exploring whether primary care networks can contribute to the national goal of reducing health inequalities: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Significant health inequalities exist in England. Primary care networks (PCNs), comprised of GP practices, were introduced in England in 2019 with funding linked to membership. PCNs have been tasked with tackling health inequalities. AIM: To consider how the design and introduction of PCNs might influence their ability to tackle health inequalities. DESIGN AND SETTING: A sequential mixed-methods study of PCNs in England. METHOD: Linear regression of annual PCN-allocated funding per workload-weighted patient on income deprivation score from 2019-2023 was used. Qualitative interviews and observations of PCNs and PCN staff were undertaken across seven PCN sites in England (July 2020-March 2022). RESULTS: Across 1243 networks in 2019-2020, a 10% higher level of income deprivation resulted in £0.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] = £0.25 to £0.37), 4.50%, less funding per weighted patient. In 2022-2023, the same difference in deprivation resulted in £0.16 (95% CI = £0.11 to £0.21), 0.60%, more funding. Qualitative interviews highlighted that, although there were requirements for PCNs to tackle health inequalities, the policy design, and PCN internal relationships and maturity, shaped and sometimes restricted how PCNs approached this task locally. CONCLUSION: Allocated PCN funding has become more pro-poor over time, suggesting that the need to account for deprivation within funding models is understood by policymakers. The following additional approaches have been highlighted that could support PCNs to tackle inequalities: better management support; encouragement and support to redistribute funding internally to support practices serving more deprived populations; and greater specificity in service requirements.

Do Informal Care Recipients Internalise Carer Burden? Examining the Impact of Informal Care Receipt on Health Behaviours.

BACKGROUND: Providing informal care has a negative effect on the caregiver's health and well-being, but little is known about how individuals respond to receiving informal care. Care recipients may improve their health behaviours to minimise the onerousness of caregiving and the stress faced by their carer from seeing a loved one in ill-health. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine whether informal care recipients internalise the potential for carer spillovers through changes in health behaviours. METHODS: We used data from 3250 older adults with care needs who took part in the UK Household Longitudinal Study between 2017 and 2019. We examined the response to informal care receipt in terms of the probability of engaging in four health behaviours: healthy diet, physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption. We estimated average treatment effects using regression adjustment with inverse probability treatment weights, comparing individuals that received informal care to those receiving either formal or no care. RESULTS: We found that informal care receipt increased the probability of refraining from negative health behaviours (smoking and alcohol consumption) but reduced the probability of engaging in positive health behaviours (eating fruits and/or vegetables and physical activity). CONCLUSIONS: The asymmetric effects detected suggest that the underlying mechanisms are different, and care recipients may be engaging in risk and effort compensation between negative and positive health behaviours. Failure to account for the behavioural responses from informal care recipients may lead to under-estimation or over-estimation of the extent of caregiving burden and the effectiveness of interventions impacting informal carers.

Level of attendance at the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the dose-response relationship between the level of attendance at the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes amongst individuals participating in the programme. METHODS: We linked data on DPP attendance for 51,803 individuals that were referred to the programme between 1st June 2016 and 31st March 2018 and attended at least one programme session, with primary care records of type 2 diabetes diagnoses from the National Diabetes Audit up to 31st March 2020. Weibull survival regressions were used to estimate the association between the number of programme sessions attended and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: Risk of developing type 2 diabetes declined significantly for individuals attending seven of the 13 programme sessions and continued to decline further up to 12 sessions. Attending the full 13 sessions was associated with a 45.5% lower risk (HR: 0.545 95% CI: 0.455 to 0.652). Compared to individuals that only partially attended the programme, attendance at 60% or more of the sessions was associated with a 30.7% lower risk of type 2 diabetes (HR: 0.693 95% CI: 0.645 to 0.745). CONCLUSIONS: Reducing the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes through diabetes prevention programmes requires a minimum attendance level at seven of the 13 programme sessions (54%). Retaining participants beyond this minimum level yields further benefits in diabetes risk reduction. Commissioners may wish to consider altering provider payment schedules to incentivise higher retention levels beyond 60% of programme sessions.

Age-gender differences in the relationships between physical and mental health.

Previous studies have identified that smoking, exercise and breadth of social interaction mediate the strong associations between physical and mental health. However, these studies have been restricted to older populations, have not explored differences by gender, and have not considered online social interaction. We explore how the effects of four mediators (exercise, smoking, in-person and online social interaction) of the two-way relationships between past and future physical and mental health vary across eight age and gender groups. We use data from a representative sample of the UK population consisting of 175,779 observations on 41,995 adults from Understanding Society (UKHLS) between 2009 and 2019. Within a mediation framework, we estimate the percentage of the total effects that can be explained by the proposed mediating factors. We show that exercise, smoking, in-person and online social interaction are significant mediators of the effect of mental health on future physical health. In-person social interaction is the largest of these, accounting for 2.3% of the total effect. Smoking, in-person and online interaction are significant mediators of the effect of physical health on future mental health. Again, in-person interaction is the largest of these, accounting for 3.0% of the total effect. The percentages of the total effects mediated by each factor differ substantially by age and gender. Seeking to avoid the harmful effects of poor physical health on future mental health should focus on increasing physical activity in older men, and on increasing in-person social interaction in both men and women. Seeking to avoid the harmful effects of poor mental health on future physical health should focus on increasing physical activity and in-person social interaction in older men and women, and on reducing smoking in younger men and women.

Evaluating whole system reforms: A structured approach for selecting multiple outcomes.

Whole-system reforms, including devolution and integration of health and social care services, have the potential to impact multiple dimensions of health system performance. Most evaluations focus on a single or narrow subsets of outcomes amenable to change. This approach may not: (i) capture the overall effect of the reform, (ii) identify the mechanisms through which system-wide changes may have occurred, (iii) prevent post-hoc selection of outcomes based on significant results; and (iv) facilitate comparisons across settings. We propose a structured approach for selecting multiple quantitative outcome measures, which we apply for evaluating health and social care devolution in Greater Manchester, England. The approach consists of five-steps: (i) defining outcome domains based on a framework, in our case the World Health Organisation's Health System Performance Assessment Framework; (ii) reviewing performance metrics from national monitoring frameworks; (iii) excluding similar and condition specific outcomes; (iv) excluding outcomes with insufficient data; and (v) mapping implemented policies to identify a subset of targeted outcomes. We identified 99 outcomes, of which 57 were targeted. The proposed approach is detail and time-intensive, but useful for both researchers and policymakers to promote transparency in evaluations and facilitate the interpretation of findings and cross-settings comparisons.

How do family doctors respond to reduced waiting times for cancer diagnosis in secondary care?

Reducing waiting times is a priority in public health systems. Efforts of healthcare providers to shorten waiting times could be negated if they simultaneously induce substantial increases in demand. However, separating out the effects of changes in supply and demand on waiting times requires an exogenous change in one element. We examine the impact of a pilot programme in some English hospitals to shorten waiting times for urgent diagnosis of suspected cancer on family doctors' referrals. We examine referrals from 6,666 family doctor partnerships to 145 hospitals between 1st April 2012 and 31st March 2019. Five hospitals piloted shorter waiting times initiatives in 2017. Using continuous difference-in-differences regression, we exploit the pilot as a 'supply shifter' to estimate the effect of waiting times on referral volumes for two suspected cancer types: bowel and lung. The proportion of referred patients breaching two-week waiting times targets for suspected bowel cancer fell by 3.9 percentage points in pilot hospitals in response to the policy, from a baseline of 4.8%. Family doctors exposed to the pilot increased their referrals (demand) by 10.8%. However, the pilot was not successful for lung cancer, with some evidence that waiting times increased, and a corresponding reduction in referrals of -10.5%. Family doctor referrals for suspected cancer are responsive at the margin to waiting times. Healthcare providers may struggle to achieve long-term reductions in waiting times if supply-side improvements are offset by increases in demand.

Evaluating the Short-Term Costs and Benefits of a Nationwide Diabetes Prevention Programme in England: Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Prevention programmes typically incur short-term costs and uncertain long-term benefits. We use the National Health Service (NHS) England Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS-DPP) to investigate whether behaviour change programmes may be cost-effective even within the short-term participation period. METHODS: We analysed 384,611 referrals between June 2016 and March 2019. We estimated NHS costs using implementation costs and provider payments. We used linear regressions to relate utility changes to the number of sessions attended, based on responses to the five-level EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L) at baseline and final session for 18,959 participants. We then calculated the corresponding quality-adjusted life year (QALY) change for all 384,611 referrals by combining the estimated regression coefficients with the observed level of attendance, with individuals that did not attend any programme sessions being assumed to experience zero benefit. In secondary analysis, we added weight change, recorded for 18,105 participants to the regression and applied predicted values to all referrals with missing weight change values estimated using multiple imputation with chained equations. We then estimated the cost-per-QALY generated. RESULTS: Average cost per referral was £119 (standard deviation: £118; 2020 price year, UK £ Sterling). Each session attended was associated with a 0.0042 increase in utility (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0025-0.0059). This generated 1,773 QALYs across all referrals (95% CI: 889-2,656). Cost-per-QALY was £24,929 (95% CI: £16,635-49,720) when implementation costs were excluded. Secondary analysis showed each session attended and kilogram of weight lost were associated with 0.0034 (95% CI: 0.0016-0.0051) and 0.0025 (95% CI: 0.0020-0.0031) increases in utility, respectively. These generated 1,542 QALYs, at a cost-per-QALY of £28,661 when implementation costs were excluded. CONCLUSION: Participants experienced small utility gains from session attendance and weight loss during their programme participation. These benefits alone made this low-cost behaviour change programme potentially cost-effective in the short-term.

Pay-for-Performance incentives for specialised services in England: a mixed methods evaluation.

BACKGROUND: A Pay-for-Performance (P4P) programme, known as Prescribed Specialised Services Commissioning for Quality and Innovation (PSS CQUIN), was introduced for specialised services in the English NHS in 2013/2014. These services treat patients with rare and complex conditions. We evaluate the implementation of PSS CQUIN contracts between 2016/2017 and 2018/2019. METHODS: We used a mixed methods evaluative approach. In the quantitative analysis, we used a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the effectiveness of ten PSS CQUIN schemes across a range of targeted outcomes. Potential selection bias was addressed using propensity score matching. We also estimated impacts on costs by scheme and financial year. In the qualitative analysis, we conducted semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions to gain insights into the complexities of contract design and programme implementation. Qualitative data analysis was based on the constant comparative method, inductively generating themes. RESULTS: The ten PSS CQUIN schemes had limited impact on the targeted outcomes. A statistically significant improvement was found for only one scheme: in the clinical area of trauma, the incentive scheme increased the probability of being discharged from Adult Critical Care within four hours of being clinically ready by 7%. The limited impact may be due to the size of the incentive payments, the complexity of the schemes' design, and issues around ownership, contracting and flexibility. CONCLUSION: The PSS CQUIN schemes had little or no impact on quality improvements in specialised services. Future P4P programmes in healthcare could benefit from lessons learnt from this study on incentive design and programme implementation.

Evaluating socioeconomic inequalities in influenza vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cohort study in Greater Manchester, England.

BACKGROUND: There are known socioeconomic inequalities in annual seasonal influenza (flu) vaccine uptake. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was associated with multiple factors that may have affected flu vaccine uptake, including widespread disruption to healthcare services, changes to flu vaccination eligibility and delivery, and increased public awareness and debate about vaccination due to high-profile COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. However, to the best of our knowledge, no existing studies have investigated the consequences for inequalities in flu vaccine uptake, so we aimed to investigate whether socioeconomic inequalities in flu vaccine uptake have widened since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used deidentified data from electronic health records for a large city region (Greater Manchester, population 2.8 million), focusing on 3 age groups eligible for National Health Service (NHS) flu vaccination: preschool children (age 2 to 3 years), primary school children (age 4 to 9 years), and older adults (age 65 years plus). The sample population varied between 418,790 (2015/16) and 758,483 (2021/22) across each vaccination season. We estimated age-adjusted neighbourhood-level income deprivation-related inequalities in flu vaccine uptake using Cox proportional hazards models and the slope index of inequality (SII), comparing 7 flu vaccination seasons (2015/16 to 2021/22). Among older adults, the SII (i.e., the gap in uptake between the least and most income-deprived areas) doubled over the 7 seasons from 8.48 (95% CI [7.91,9.04]) percentage points to 16.91 (95% CI [16.46,17.36]) percentage points, with approximately 80% of this increase occurring during the pandemic. Before the pandemic, income-related uptake gaps were wider among children, ranging from 15.59 (95% CI [14.52,16.67]) percentage points to 20.07 (95% CI [18.94,21.20]) percentage points across age groups and vaccination seasons. Among preschool children, the uptake gap increased in 2020/21 to 25.25 (95% CI [24.04,26.45]) percentage points, before decreasing to 20.86 (95% CI [19.65,22.05]) percentage points in 2021/22. Among primary school children, inequalities increased in both pandemic years to reach 30.27 (95% CI [29.58,30.95]) percentage points in 2021/22. Although vaccine uptake increased during the pandemic, disproportionately larger increases in uptake in less deprived areas created wider inequalities in all age groups. The main limitation of our approach is the use of a local dataset, which may limit generalisability to other geographical settings. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic led to increased inequalities in flu vaccine uptake, likely due to changes in demand for vaccination, new delivery models, and disruptions to healthcare and schooling. It will be important to investigate the causes of these increased inequalities and to examine whether these increased inequalities also occurred in the uptake of other routine vaccinations. These new wider inequalities in flu vaccine uptake may exacerbate inequalities in flu-related morbidity and mortality.

Analysing changes to the flow of public funding within local health and care systems: An adaptation of the System of Health Accounts framework to a local health system in England.

Financial flows relating to health care are routinely analysed at national and international level. They have rarely been systematically analysed at local level, despite sub-national variation due to population needs and decisions enacted by local organisations. We illustrate an adaptation of the System of Health Accounts framework to map the flow of public health and care funding within local systems, with an application for Greater Manchester (GM), an area in England which agreed a health and social care devolution deal with the central government in 2016. We analyse how financial flows changed in GM during the four years post-devolution, and whether spending was aligned with local ambitions to move towards prevention of ill-health and integration of health and social care. We find that GM decreased spending on public health by 15%, and increased spending on general practice by 0.1% in real terms. The share of total local expenditure paid to NHS Trusts for general and acute services increased from 70.3% to 71.6%, while that for community services decreased from 11.7% to 10.3%. Results suggest that GM may have experienced challenges in redirecting resources towards their goals. Mapping financial flows at a local level is a useful exercise to examine whether spending is aligned with system goals and highlight areas for further investigation.

Population, workforce, and organisational characteristics affecting appointment rates: a retrospective cross-sectional analysis in primary care.

BACKGROUND: The recent publication of data on appointment volumes for all general practices in England has enabled representative analysis of factors affecting appointment activity rates for the first time. AIM: To identify population, workforce, and organisational predictors of practice variations in appointment volume. DESIGN AND SETTING: A multivariable cross-sectional regression analysis of 6284 general practices in England was undertaken using data from August-October 2022. METHOD: Multivariable regression analyses was conducted. It related population age and deprivation, numbers of GPs, nurses, and other care professionals, and organisation characteristics to numbers of appointments by staff type and to proportions of appointments on the same or next day after booking. RESULTS: Appointment levels were higher at practices serving rural areas. Practices serving more deprived populations had more appointments with other care professionals but not GPs. One additional full-time equivalent (FTE) GP was associated with an extra 175 appointments over 3 months. Additional FTEs of other staff types were associated with larger differences in appointment rates (367 appointments per additional nurse and 218 appointments per additional other care professional over 3 months). There was evidence of substitution between staff types in appointment provision. Levels of staffing were not associated with proportions of same-or next-day appointments. CONCLUSION: Higher staffing levels are associated with more appointment provision, but not speed of appointment availability. New information on activity levels has shown evidence of substitution between GPs and other care professionals in appointment provision and demonstrated additional workload for practices serving deprived and rural areas.