Assessing Clinician Utilization of Next-Generation Antibiotics Against Resistant Gram-Negative Infections in U.S. Hospitals : A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. antibiotic market failure has threatened future innovation and supply. Understanding when and why clinicians underutilize recently approved gram-negative antibiotics might help prioritize the patient in future antibiotic development and potential market entry rewards. OBJECTIVE: To determine use patterns of recently U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved gram-negative antibiotics (ceftazidime-avibactam, ceftolozane-tazobactam, meropenem-vaborbactam, plazomicin, eravacycline, imipenem-relebactam-cilastatin, and cefiderocol) and identify factors associated with their preferential use (over traditional generic agents) in patients with gram-negative infections due to pathogens displaying difficult-to-treat resistance (DTR; that is, resistance to all first-line antibiotics). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING: 619 U.S. hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Adult inpatients. MEASUREMENTS: Quarterly percentage change in antibiotic use was calculated using weighted linear regression. Machine learning selected candidate variables, and mixed models identified factors associated with new (vs. traditional) antibiotic use in DTR infections. RESULTS: Between quarter 1 of 2016 and quarter 2 of 2021, ceftolozane-tazobactam (approved 2014) and ceftazidime-avibactam (2015) predominated new antibiotic usage whereas subsequently approved gram-negative antibiotics saw relatively sluggish uptake. Among gram-negative infection hospitalizations, 0.7% (2551 [2631 episodes] of 362 142) displayed DTR pathogens. Patients were treated exclusively using traditional agents in 1091 of 2631 DTR episodes (41.5%), including "reserve" antibiotics such as polymyxins, aminoglycosides, and tigecycline in 865 of 1091 episodes (79.3%). Patients with bacteremia and chronic diseases had greater adjusted probabilities and those with do-not-resuscitate status, acute liver failure, and Acinetobacter baumannii complex and other nonpseudomonal nonfermenter pathogens had lower adjusted probabilities of receiving newer (vs. traditional) antibiotics for DTR infections, respectively. Availability of susceptibility testing for new antibiotics increased probability of usage. LIMITATION: Residual confounding. CONCLUSION: Despite FDA approval of 7 next-generation gram-negative antibiotics between 2014 and 2019, clinicians still frequently treat resistant gram-negative infections with older, generic antibiotics with suboptimal safety-efficacy profiles. Future antibiotics with innovative mechanisms targeting untapped pathogen niches, widely available susceptibility testing, and evidence demonstrating improved outcomes in resistant infections might enhance utilization. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Food and Drug Administration; NIH Intramural Research Program.

Early Discontinuation of Antibiotics in Patients Admitted With Clinically Suspected Serious Infection but Negative Cultures: Retrospective Cohort Study of Practice Patterns and Outcomes at 111†US Hospitals.

Background: The optimal duration for antibiotics in patients hospitalized with culture-negative serious infection (CNSI) is unknown. We compared outcomes in patients with CNSI treated with 3 or 4 vs ≥5 days of antibiotics. Methods: CNSI was identified among adults admitted to 111 US hospitals between 2009 and 2014 via electronic health record data, defined as suspected serious infection (blood cultures drawn and ≥3 days of antibiotics) and negative culture- and nonculture-based tests for infection. Patients treated with antibiotics on their last hospital day and patients with diagnosis codes for sepsis-mimicking conditions were excluded. Among patients without fevers/hypothermia or vasopressors by day 3, we calculated odds ratios for in-hospital mortality or discharge to hospice associated with 3 or 4 vs ≥5 days of antibiotics, adjusting for confounders. Results: Antibiotics were discontinued in 3 or 4 days in 1862 (9%) of 20 714 patients with CNSI. Early discontinuation was not associated with higher mortality odds overall (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.27; 95% CI, .98-1.65), in patients presenting with (1.39; .88-2.22) and without sepsis (1.17; .81-1.69), and in those with pulmonary (1.23; .65-2.34) and nonpulmonary CNSI (1.30; .99-1.72). Early discontinuation appeared detrimental with propensity score weighting (aOR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.03-1.80) and when retaining patients with sepsis mimics (1.38; 1.16-1.65), but it was protective (0.48; .37-.64]) when retaining patients who received antibiotics on their last hospital day. Conclusions: Early discontinuation of antibiotics in CNSI was not associated with significant harm in our primary analysis, but different conclusions based on alternative analytic decisions, as well as risk of residual confounding, indicate that randomized controlled trials are needed.

Malaria transmission-blocking vaccines Pfs230D1-EPA and Pfs25-EPA in Alhydrogel in healthy Malian adults; a phase 1, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission-blocking vaccines target mosquito-stage parasites and will support elimination programmes. Gamete vaccine Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel induced superior activity to zygote vaccine Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel in malaria-naive US adults. Here, we compared these vaccines in malaria-experienced Malians. METHODS: We did a pilot safety study then double-blind, block-randomised, comparator-controlled main-phase trial in malaria-intense Bancoumana, Mali. 18-50-year-old healthy non-pregnant, non-breastfeeding consenting adult residents were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to receive four doses at months 0, 1, 4·5, and 16·5 of either 47 µg Pfs25, 40 µg Pfs230D1 or comparator (Twinrix or Menactra)-all co-administered with normal saline for blinding-or 47 µg Pfs25 plus 40 µg Pfs230D1 co-administered. We documented safety and tolerability (primary endpoint in the as-treated populations) and immunogenicity (secondary endpoint in the as-treated populations: ELISA, standard-membrane-feeding assay, and mosquito direct skin feed assay). This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02334462. FINDINGS: Between March 19, and June 2, 2015, we screened 471 individuals. Of 225 enrolled for the pilot and main cohorts, we randomly assigned 25 participants to pilot safety cohort groups of five (20%) to receive a two-dose series of Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel (16 µg), Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel (15 µg) or comparator, followed by Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel (16 µg) plus Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel (15 µg) or comparator plus saline. For the main cohort, we enrolled 200 participants between May 11 and June 2, 2015, to receive a four-dose series of 47 µg Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel plus saline (n=50 [25%]; Pfs25), 40 µg Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel plus saline (n=49 [25%]; Pfs230D1), 47 µg Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel plus 40 µg Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel (n=50 [25%]; Pfs25 plus Pfs230D1), or comparator (Twinrix or Menactra) plus saline (n=51 [25%]). Vaccinations were well tolerated in the pilot safety and main phases. Most vaccinees became seropositive after two Pfs230D1 or three Pfs25 doses; peak titres increased with each dose thereafter (Pfs230D1 geometric mean: 77·8 [95% CI 56·9-106·3], 146·4 [108·3-198·0], and 410·2 [301·6-558·0]; Pfs25 geometric mean 177·7 [130·3-242·4] and 315·7 [209·9-474·6]). Functional activity (mean peak transmission-reducing activity) appeared for Pfs230D1 (74·5% [66·6-82·5]) and Pfs25 plus Pfs230D1 (68·6% [57·3-79·8]), after the third dose and after the fourth dose (88·9% [81·7-96·2] for Pfs230D1 and 85·0% [78·4-91·5] Pfs25 plus Pfs230D1) but not for Pfs25 (58·2% [49·1-67·3] after the third dose and 58·2% [48·5-67·9] after the fourth dose). Pfs230D1 transmission-reducing activity (73·7% [64·1-83·3]) persisted 10 weeks after the fourth dose. Transmission-reducing activity of 80% was estimated at 1659 ELISA units for Pfs25, 218 for Pfs230D1, and 223 for Pfs230D1 plus Pfs25. After 3850 direct skin feed assays, 35 participants (12 Pfs25, eight Pfs230D1, five Pfs25 plus Pfs230D1, and ten comparator) had transmitted parasites at least once. The proportion of positive assays in vaccine groups (Pfs25 33 [3%] of 982 [-0·013 to 0·014], Pfs230D1 22 [2%] of 954 [-0·005 to 0·027], and combination 11 [1%] of 940 [-0·024 to 0·002]) did not differ from that of the comparator (22 [2%] of 974), nor did Pfs230D1 and combination groups differ (-0·024 to 0·001). INTERPRETATION: Pfs230D1 but not Pfs25 vaccine induces durable serum functional activity in Malian adults. Direct skin feed assays detect parasite transmission to mosquitoes but increased event rates are needed to assess vaccine effectiveness. FUNDING: Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and US National Institutes of Health.

Epidemiology of ICU-Onset Bloodstream Infection: Prevalence, Pathogens, and Risk Factors Among 150,948 ICU Patients at 85 U.S. Hospitals.

OBJECTIVES: Bloodstream infections (BSIs) acquired in the ICU represent a detrimental yet potentially preventable condition. We determined the prevalence of BSI acquired in the ICU (ICU-onset BSI), pathogen profile, and associated risk factors. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. DATA SOURCES: Eighty-five U.S. hospitals in the Cerner Healthfacts Database. PATIENT SELECTION: Adult hospitalizations between January 2009 and December 2015 including a (≥ 3 d) ICU stay. DATA EXTRACTION AND DATA SYNTHESIS: Prevalence of ICU-onset BSI (between ICU Day 3 and ICU discharge) and associated pathogen and antibiotic resistance distributions were compared with BSI present on (ICU) admission (ICU-BSI POA ); and BSI present on ICU admission day or Day 2. Cox models identified risk factors for ICU-onset BSI among host, care setting, and treatment-related factors. Among 150,948 ICU patients, 5,600 (3.7%) had ICU-BSI POA and 1,306 (0.9%) had ICU-onset BSI. Of those with ICU-BSI POA , 4,359 (77.8%) were admitted to ICU at hospital admission day. Patients with ICU-onset BSI (vs ICU-BSI POA ) displayed higher crude mortality of 37.9% (vs 20.4%) ( p < 0.001) and longer median (interquartile range) length of stay of 13 days (8-23 d) (vs 5 d [3-8 d]) ( p < 0.001) (considering all ICU stay). Compared with ICU-BSI POA , ICU-onset BSI displayed more Pseudomonas , Acinetobacter , Enterococcus, Candida , and Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus species, and more methicillin-resistant staphylococci, vancomycin-resistant enterococci, ceftriaxone-resistant Enterobacter , and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales and Acinetobacter species, respectively. Being younger, male, Black, Hispanic, having greater comorbidity burden, sepsis, trauma, acute pulmonary or gastrointestinal presentations, and pre-ICU exposure to antibacterial and antifungal agents was associated with greater ICU-onset BSI risk after adjusted analysis. Mixed ICUs (vs medical or surgical ICUs) and urban and small/medium rural hospitals were also associated with greater ICU-onset BSI risk. The associated risk of acquiring ICU-onset BSI manifested with any duration of mechanical ventilation and 7 days after insertion of central venous or arterial catheters. CONCLUSIONS: ICU-onset BSI is a serious condition that displays a unique pathogen and resistance profile compared with ICU-BSI POA . Further scrutiny of modifiable risk factors for ICU-onset BSI may inform control strategies.

Bridged parametric survival models: General paradigm and speed improvements.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: With the recent surge in availability of large biomedical databases mostly derived from electronic health records, the need for the development of scalable marginal survival models with faster implementation cannot be more timely. The presence of clustering renders computational complexity, especially when the number of clusters is high. Marginalizing conditional survival models can violate the proportional hazards assumption for some frailty distributions, disrupting the connection to a conditional model. While theoretical connections between proportional hazard and accelerated failure time models exist, a computational framework to produce both for either marginal or conditional perspectives is lacking. Our objective is to provide fast, scalable bridged-survival models contained in a unified framework from which the effects and standard errors for the conditional hazard ratio, the marginal hazard ratio, the conditional acceleration factor, and the marginal acceleration factor can be estimated, and related to one another in a transparent fashion. Methods We formulate a Weibull parametric frailty likelihood for clustered survival times that can directly estimate the four estimands. Under a nonlinear mixed model specification with positive stable frailties powered by Gaussian quadrature, we put forth a novel closed form of the integrated likelihood that lowered the computational threshold for fitting these models. The method is illustrated on a real dataset generated from electronic health records examining tooth-loss. RESULTS: Our novel closed form of the integrated likelihood significantly lowered the computational threshold for fitting these models by a factor of 12 (36 compared to 3 min) for the R package parfm, and a factor of 2400 for Gaussian Quadrature (4.6 days compared to 3 min) in SAS. Moreover, each of these estimands are connected by simple relationships of the parameters and the proportional hazards assumption is preserved for the marginal model. Our framework provides a flow of analysis enabling the fit of any/all of the 4 perspective-parameterization combinations. Conclusions We see the potential usefulness of our framework of bridged parametric survival models fitted with the Static-Stirling closed form likelihood. Bridged-survival models provide insights on subject-specific and population-level survival effects when their relation is transparent. SAS and R codes, along with implementation details on a pseudo data are provided.

Pfs230 yields higher malaria transmission-blocking vaccine activity than Pfs25 in humans but not mice.

BACKGROUNDVaccines that block human-to-mosquito Plasmodium transmission are needed for malaria eradication, and clinical trials have targeted zygote antigen Pfs25 for decades. We reported that a Pfs25 protein-protein conjugate vaccine formulated in alum adjuvant induced serum functional activity in both US and Malian adults. However, antibody levels declined rapidly, and transmission-reducing activity required 4 vaccine doses. Functional immunogenicity and durability must be improved before advancing transmission-blocking vaccines further in clinical development. We hypothesized that the prefertilization protein Pfs230 alone or in combination with Pfs25 would improve functional activity.METHODSTransmission-blocking vaccine candidates based on gamete antigen Pfs230 or Pfs25 were conjugated with Exoprotein A, formulated in Alhydrogel, and administered to mice, rhesus macaques, and humans. Antibody levels were measured by ELISA and transmission-reducing activity was assessed by the standard membrane feeding assay.RESULTSPfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel and Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel induced similar serum functional activity in mice, but Pfs230D1-EPA induced significantly greater activity in rhesus monkeys that was enhanced by complement. In US adults, 2 vaccine doses induced complement-dependent activity in 4 of 5 Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel recipients but no significant activity in 5 Pfs25-EPA recipients, and combination with Pfs25-EPA did not increase activity over Pfs230D1-EPA alone.CONCLUSIONThe complement-dependent functional immunogenicity of Pfs230D1-EPA represents a significant improvement over Pfs25-EPA in this comparative study. The rhesus model is more predictive of the functional human immune response to Pfs230D1 than is the mouse model.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT02334462.FUNDINGIntramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health.

Evaluation and modeling of direct membrane-feeding assay with Plasmodium vivax to support development of transmission blocking vaccines.

Standard and direct membrane-feeding assays (SMFA and DMFA) are fundamental assays to evaluate efficacy of transmission-blocking intervention (TBI) candidates against Plasmodium falciparum and vivax. To compare different candidates precisely, it is crucial to understand the error range of measured activity, usually expressed as percent inhibition in either oocyst intensity (% transmission reducing activity, %TRA), or in prevalence of infected mosquitoes (% transmission blocking activity, %TBA). To this end, mathematical models have been proposed for P. falciparum SMFA (PfSMFA), but such study for DMFA is limited. In this study, we analyzed P. vivax DMFA (PvDMFA) data from 22,236 mosquitoes tested from 96 independent assays. While the two assays are quite different, a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model could reasonably explain the PvDMFA results, as it has for PfSMFA. Our simulation studies based on the ZINB model revealed it is better to report %TRA values with a proper error range, rather than observed %TBA both in SMFA and DMFA. Furthermore, the simulations help in designing a better assay and aid in estimating an error range of a %TRA value when the uncertainty is not reported. This study strongly supports future TBI development by providing a rational method to compare different candidates.

Structure and function of a malaria transmission blocking vaccine targeting Pfs230 and Pfs230-Pfs48/45 proteins.

Proteins Pfs230 and Pfs48/45 are Plasmodium falciparum transmission-blocking (TB) vaccine candidates that form a membrane-bound protein complex on gametes. The biological role of Pfs230 or the Pfs230-Pfs48/45 complex remains poorly understood. Here, we present the crystal structure of recombinant Pfs230 domain 1 (Pfs230D1M), a 6-cysteine domain, in complex with the Fab fragment of a TB monoclonal antibody (mAb) 4F12. We observed the arrangement of Pfs230 on the surface of macrogametes differed from that on microgametes, and that Pfs230, with no known membrane anchor, may exist on the membrane surface in the absence of Pfs48/45. 4F12 appears to sterically interfere with Pfs230 function. Combining mAbs against different epitopes of Pfs230D1 or of Pfs230D1 and Pfs48/45, significantly increased TB activity. These studies elucidate a mechanism of action of the Pfs230D1 vaccine, model the functional activity induced by a polyclonal antibody response and support the development of TB vaccines targeting Pfs230D1 and Pfs230D1-Pfs48/45.

Strong concordance between percent inhibition in oocyst and sporozoite intensities in a Plasmodium falciparum standard membrane-feeding assay.

BACKGROUND: Effective malaria transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) can support malaria eradication programmes, and the standard membrane-feeding assay (SMFA) has been used as a "gold standard" assay for TBV development. However, in SMFA, the inhibitory activity is commonly measured at oocyst stage of parasites, while it is the sporozoites which transmit malaria from a mosquito to a human. A handful of studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between oocyst and sporozoite intensities. However, no study has been completed to compare inhibition levels in oocyst and sporozoite intensities in the presence of transmission-blocking (TB) antibodies. RESULTS: Plasmodium falciparum NF54 gametocytes were fed to Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes with or without anti-Pfs25 or anti-Pfs48/45 TB antibodies in 15 independent assays. For each group, a portion of the mosquitoes was dissected for oocyst counts (day 8 after feed), and a portion of the remaining mosquitoes was dissected for sporozoite counts (day 16). This study covered a large range of oocyst and sporozoite intensities: 0.2 to 80.5 on average for oocysts, and 141 to 77,417 for sporozoites. The sporozoite data were well explained by a zero-inflated negative binomial model, regardless of the presence or absence of TB antibodies. Inhibition levels in both oocyst and sporozoite intensities were determined within the same groups in 9 independent assays. When the level of inhibition in sporozoite number (expressed as Log Mean Ratio, LMR; average number in a control group was divided by the one in a test group, then took a log of the ratio) was plotted against LMR in oocyst number, the best-fit slope of a linear regression was not different from 1 (the best estimate, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 1.29). Furthermore, a Bland-Altman analysis showed a strong agreement between inhibitions in oocysts and in sporozoites. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that percent inhibition in oocyst intensity of a test sample can be directly converted to % inhibition in sporozoite intensity in P. falciparum SMFA. Therefore, if sporozoite intensity determines transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans, the percent inhibition in oocyst intensity measured by SMFA can be used to estimate the TBV efficacy.

Attributable mortality from extensively drug-resistant gram-negative infections using propensity-matched tracer antibiotic algorithms.

BACKGROUND: Tracer antibiotic algorithms using administrative data were investigated to estimate mortality attributable to extensively drug-resistant gram-negative infections (GNIs). METHODS: Among adult inpatients coded for GNIs, colistin cases and 2 comparator cohorts (non-carbapenem ß-lactams or carbapenems) treated for ≥4 consecutive days, or died while receiving the antibiotic, were separately propensity score-matched (1:2). Attributable mortality was the in-hospital mortality difference among propensity-matched groups. Infection characteristics and sepsis severity influences on attributable mortality were examined. Algorithm accuracy was assessed by chart review. RESULTS: Of 232,834 GNIs between 2010 and 2013 at 79 hospitals, 1,023 per 3,350 (30.5%) colistin and 9,188 per 105,641 (8.7%) ß-lactam (non-carbapenem) comparator cases died. Propensity-matched colistin and ß-lactam case mortality was 29.2% and 16.6%, respectively, for an attributable mortality of 12.6% (95% confidence interval 10.8-14.4%). Attributable mortality varied from 11.0% (7.5%-14.7%) for urinary to 15.5% (12.6%-18.4%) for respiratory (P < .0001), and 4.6% (2.1%-7.4%) for early (≤4 days) to 16.6% (14.3%-18.9%) for late-onset infections (P < .0001). Attributable mortality decreased to 7.5% (5.6%-9.4%) using a carbapenem comparator cohort but increased 9-fold in patients coded for severe sepsis or septic shock (P < .0001). Our colistin algorithm had a positive predictive value of 60.4% and sensitivity of 65.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality attributable to treatment-limiting resistance during GNIs varied considerably by site, onset, and severity of infection.

A single injection of crystallizable fragment domain-modified antibodies elicits durable protection from SHIV infection.

In the absence of an effective and safe vaccine against HIV-1, the administration of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) represents a logical alternative approach to prevent virus transmission. Here, we introduced two mutations encoding amino acid substitutions (M428L and N434S, collectively referred to as 'LS') into the genes encoding the crystallizable fragment domains of the highly potent HIV-specific 3BNC117 and 10-1074 bNAbs to increase their half-lives and evaluated their efficacy in blocking infection following repeated low-dose mucosal challenges of rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) with the tier 2 SHIVAD8-EO. A single intravenous infusion of 10-1074-LS monoclonal antibodies markedly delayed virus acquisition for 18 to 37 weeks (median, 27 weeks), whereas the protective effect of the 3BNC117-LS bNAb was more modest (provided protection for 11-23 weeks; median, 17 weeks). Serum concentrations of the 10-1074-LS monoclonal antibody gradually declined and became undetectable in all recipients between weeks 26 and 41, whereas the 3BNC117-LS bNAb exhibited a shorter half-life. To model immunoprophylaxis against genetically diverse and/or neutralization-resistant HIV-1 strains, a combination of the 3BNC117-LS plus 10-1074-LS monoclonal antibodies was injected into macaques via the more clinically relevant subcutaneous route. Even though the administered mixture contained an amount of each bNAb that was nearly threefold less than the quantity of the single monoclonal antibody in the intravenous injections, the monoclonal antibody combination still protected macaques for a median of 20 weeks. The extended period of protection observed in macaques for the 3BNC117-LS plus 10-1074-LS combination could translate into an effective semiannual or annual immunoprophylaxis regimen for preventing HIV-1 infections in humans.

Statistical Methods for Standard Membrane-Feeding Assays to Measure Transmission Blocking or Reducing Activity in Malaria.

Transmission blocking vaccines for malaria are not designed to directly protect vaccinated people from malaria disease, but to reduce the probability of infecting other people by interfering with the growth of the malaria parasite in mosquitoes. Standard membrane-feeding assays compare the growth of parasites in mosquitoes from a test sample (using antibodies from a vaccinated person) compared to a control sample. There is debate about whether to estimate the transmission reducing activity (TRA) which compares the mean number of parasites between test and control samples, or transmission blocking activity (TBA) which compares the proportion of infected mosquitoes. TBA appears biologically more important since each mosquito with any parasites is potentially infective; however, TBA is less reproducible and may be an overly strict criterion for screening vaccine candidates. Through a statistical model, we show that the TBA estimand depends on µ c , the mean number of parasites in the control mosquitoes, a parameter not easily experimentally controlled. We develop a standardized TBA estimator based on the model and a given target value for µ c which has better mean squared error than alternative methods. We discuss types of statistical inference needed for using these assays for vaccine development.

Impact of Intravenous Immunoglobulin on Survival in Necrotizing Fasciitis With Vasopressor-Dependent Shock: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis From 130 US Hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Shock frequently complicates necrotizing fasciitis (NF) caused by group A Streptococcus (GAS) or Staphylococcus aureus. Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is sometimes administered for presumptive toxic shock syndrome (TSS), but its frequency of use and efficacy are unclear. METHODS: Adult patients with NF and vasopressor-dependent shock undergoing surgical debridement from 2010 to 2014 were identified at 130 US hospitals. IVIG cases were propensity-matched and risk-adjusted. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and the secondary outcome was median length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: Of 4127 cases of debrided NF with shock at 121 centers, only 164 patients (4%) at 61 centers received IVIG. IVIG subjects were younger with lower comorbidity indices, but higher illness severity. Clindamycin and vasopressor intensity were higher among IVIG cases, as was coding for TSS and GAS. In-hospital mortality did not differ between matched IVIG and non-IVIG groups (crude mortality, 27.3% vs 23.6%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.00 [95% confidence interval, .55-1.83]; P = .99). Early IVIG (≤2 days) did not alter this effect (P = .99). Among patients coded for TSS, GAS, and/or S. aureus, IVIG use was still unusual (59/868 [6.8%]) and lacked benefit (P = .63). Median LOS was similar between IVIG and non-IVIG groups (26 [13-49] vs 26 [11-43]; P = .84). Positive predictive values for identifying true NF and debridement among IVIG cases using our algorithms were 97% and 89%, respectively, based on records review at 4 hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Adjunctive IVIG was administered infrequently in NF with shock and had no apparent impact on mortality or hospital LOS beyond that achieved with debridement and antibiotics.

Transmission-blocking activity is determined by transmission-reducing activity and number of control oocysts in Plasmodium falciparum standard membrane-feeding assay.

Malaria transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) are potentially helpful tools for malaria eradication. The standard membrane-feeding assay (SMFA) is considered one of the "gold standard" assays for TBV development. However, lack of consensus in reporting results from SMFA has made it very challenging to compare results from different studies. Two main readouts, % inhibition in mean oocyst count per mosquito (TRA) and % inhibition in prevalence of infected mosquitoes (TBA), have been used widely. In this study, we statistically modeled the oocyst data in SMFA using data from 105 independent feeding experiments including 9804 mosquitoes. The model was validated using an independent data set that included 10,790 mosquitoes from 110 feeding studies. The model delineates a relationship between TRA, the mean oocyst count in the control mosquitoes (mo-contl), and TBA. While TRA was independent from mo-contl, TBA values changed depending on mo-contl. Regardless of monoclonal or polyclonal antibodies tested, there were strong concordances between observed TBA and predicted TBA based on the model using mo-contl and observed TRA. Simulations showed that SMFA with lower true control means had increased uncertainty in TRA estimates. The strong linkage between TBA, TRA and mo-contl inspired creation of a standardized TBA, a model-based TBA standardized to a target control mean, which allows comparison across multiple feeds regardless of mo-contl. This is the first study showing that the observed TBA can be reasonably predicted by mo-contl and the TRA of the test antibody using independent experimental data. This study indicates that TRA should be used to compare results from multiple feeds with different levels of mo-contl. If a measure of TBA is desired, it is better to report standardized TBA rather than observed TBA. These recommendations support rational comparisons of results from different studies, thus benefiting future TBV development.

Modeling sleep fragmentation in sleep hypnograms: An instance of fast, scalable discrete-state, discrete-time analyses.

Methods are introduced for the analysis of large sets of sleep study data (hypnograms) using a 5-state 20-transition-type structure defined by the American Academy of Sleep Medicine. Application of these methods to the hypnograms of 5598 subjects from the Sleep Heart Health Study provide: the first analysis of sleep hypnogram data of such size and complexity in a community cohort with a range of sleep-disordered breathing severity; introduce a novel approach to compare 5-state (20-transition-type) to 3-state (6-transition-type) sleep structures to assess information loss from combining sleep state categories; extend current approaches of multivariate survival data analysis to clustered, recurrent event discrete-state discrete-time processes; and provide scalable solutions for data analyses required by the case study. The analysis provides detailed new insights into the association between sleep-disordered breathing and sleep architecture. The example data and both R and SAS code are included in online supplementary materials.

A unifying framework for marginalized random intercept models of correlated binary outcomes.

We demonstrate that many current approaches for marginal modeling of correlated binary outcomes produce likelihoods that are equivalent to the copula-based models herein. These general copula models of underlying latent threshold random variables yield likelihood-based models for marginal fixed effects estimation and interpretation in the analysis of correlated binary data with exchangeable correlation structures. Moreover, we propose a nomenclature and set of model relationships that substantially elucidates the complex area of marginalized random intercept models for binary data. A diverse collection of didactic mathematical and numerical examples are given to illustrate concepts.

Practical Marginalized Multilevel Models.

Clustered data analysis is characterized by the need to describe both systematic variation in a mean model and cluster-dependent random variation in an association model. Marginalized multilevel models embrace the robustness and interpretations of a marginal mean model, while retaining the likelihood inference capabilities and flexible dependence structures of a conditional association model. Although there has been increasing recognition of the attractiveness of marginalized multilevel models, there has been a gap in their practical application arising from a lack of readily available estimation procedures. We extend the marginalized multilevel model to allow for nonlinear functions in both the mean and association aspects. We then formulate marginal models through conditional specifications to facilitate estimation with mixed model computational solutions already in place. We illustrate the MMM and approximate MMM approaches on a cerebrovascular deficiency crossover trial using SAS and an epidemiological study on race and visual impairment using R. Datasets, SAS and R code are included as supplemental materials.

Combining hidden Markov models for comparing the dynamics of multiple sleep electroencephalograms.

In this manuscript, we consider methods for the analysis of populations of electroencephalogram signals during sleep for the study of sleep disorders using hidden Markov models (HMMs). Notably, we propose an easily implemented method for simultaneously modeling multiple time series that involve large amounts of data. We apply these methods to study sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) in the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS), a landmark study of SDB and cardiovascular consequences. We use the entire, longitudinally collected, SHHS cohort to develop HMM population parameters, which we then apply to obtain subject-specific Markovian predictions. From these predictions, we create several indices of interest, such as transition frequencies between latent states. Our HMM analysis of electroencephalogram signals uncovers interesting findings regarding differences in brain activity during sleep between those with and without SDB. These findings include stability of the percent time spent in HMM latent states across matched diseased and non-diseased groups and differences in the rate of transitioning.

Mixed effect Poisson log-linear models for clinical and epidemiological sleep hypnogram data.

Bayesian Poisson log-linear multilevel models scalable to epidemiological studies are proposed to investigate population variability in sleep state transition rates. Hierarchical random effects are used to account for pairings of subjects and repeated measures within those subjects, as comparing diseased with non-diseased subjects while minimizing bias is of importance. Essentially, non-parametric piecewise constant hazards are estimated and smoothed, allowing for time-varying covariates and segment of the night comparisons. The Bayesian Poisson regression is justified through a re-derivation of a classical algebraic likelihood equivalence of Poisson regression with a log(time) offset and survival regression assuming exponentially distributed survival times. Such re-derivation allows synthesis of two methods currently used to analyze sleep transition phenomena: stratified multi-state proportional hazards models and log-linear generalized estimating equations (GEE) models for transition counts. An example data set from the Sleep Heart Health Study is analyzed. Supplementary material includes the analyzed data set as well as the code for a reproducible analysis.

Utility of sleep stage transitions in assessing sleep continuity.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Sleep continuity is commonly assessed with polysomnographic measures such as sleep efficiency, sleep stage percentages, and the arousal index. The aim of this study was to examine whether the transition rate between different sleep stages could be used as an index of sleep continuity to predict self-reported sleep quality independent of other commonly used metrics. DESIGN AND SETTING: Analysis of the Sleep Heart Health Study polysomnographic data. PARTICIPANTS: A community cohort. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Sleep recordings on 5,684 participants were deemed to be of sufficient quality to allow visual scoring of NREM and REM sleep. For each participant, we tabulated the frequency of transitions between wake, NREM sleep, and REM sleep. An overall transition rate was determined as the number of all transitions per hour sleep. Stage-specific transition rates between wake, NREM sleep, and REM sleep were also determined. A 5-point Likert scale was used to assess the subjective experience of restless and light sleep the morning after the sleep study. Multivariable regression models showed that a high overall sleep stage transition rate was associated with restless and light sleep independent of several covariates including total sleep time, percentages of sleep stages, wake time after sleep onset, and the arousal index. Compared to the lowest quartile of the overall transition rate (<7.76 events/h), the odds ratios for restless sleep were 1.27, 1.42, and 1.38, for the second (7.77-10.10 events/h), third (10.11-13.34 events/h), and fourth (≥13.35 events/h) quartiles, respectively. Analysis of stage-specific transition rates showed that transitions between wake and NREM sleep were also independently associated with restless and light sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing overall and stage-specific transition rates provides a complementary approach for assessing sleep continuity. Incorporating such measures, along with conventional metrics, could yield useful insights into the significance of sleep continuity for clinical outcomes.