Sustaining productivity gains in the face of climate change: A research agenda for US wheat.

Wheat is a globally important crop and one of the "big three" US field crops. But unlike the other two (maize and soybean), in the United States its development is commercially unattractive, and so its breeding takes place primarily in public universities. Troublingly, the incentive structures within these universities may be hindering genetic improvement just as climate change is complicating breeding efforts. "Business as usual" in the US public wheat-breeding infrastructure may not sustain productivity increases. To address this concern, we held a multidisciplinary conference in which researchers from 12 US (public) universities and one European university shared the current state of knowledge in their disciplines, aired concerns, and proposed initiatives that could facilitate maintaining genetic improvement of wheat in the face of climate change. We discovered that climate-change-oriented breeding efforts are currently considered too risky and/or costly for most university wheat breeders to undertake, leading to a relative lack of breeding efforts that focus on abiotic stressors such as drought and heat. We hypothesize that this risk/cost burden can be reduced through the development of appropriate germplasm, relevant screening mechanisms, consistent germplasm characterization, and innovative models predicting the performance of germplasm under projected future climate conditions. However, doing so will require coordinated, longer-term, inter-regional efforts to generate phenotype data, and the modification of incentive structures to consistently reward such efforts.

Yield gains larger in GM maize for human consumption than livestock feed in South Africa.

The majority of genetically modified (GM) crops are produced for livestock consumption, whereas minimal attention has been given to GM crops for direct human consumption. In South Africa, GM white maize has been grown for direct human consumption alongside GM yellow maize and conventional hybrid (CH) maize for livestock feed since 1999. Here we investigate yield differences between GM white, GM yellow and CH maize across 106 locations, 28 years, 491 cultivars, and 49,335 dryland and 9,617 irrigated observations in South Africa. GM maize increased mean yields over CH by 0.42 metric tons (Mt) ha-1 and reduced yield risk. We show that GM white maize increased yields by 0.60 Mt ha-1 and GM yellow maize by 0.27 Mt ha-1 compared with CH maize. GM yield gains were similar for dry and irrigated production. Our study highlights the potential impacts of growing GM grain crops for human consumption in African countries.

Yield reduction under climate warming varies among wheat cultivars in South Africa.

Understanding extreme weather impacts on staple crops such as wheat is vital for creating adaptation strategies and increasing food security, especially in dryland cropping systems across Southern Africa. This study analyses heat impacts on wheat using daily weather information and a dryland wheat dataset for 71 cultivars across 17 locations in South Africa from 1998 to 2014. We estimate temperature impacts on yields in extensive regression models, finding that extreme heat drives wheat yield losses, with an additional 24 h of exposure to temperatures above 30 °C associated with a 12.5% yield reduction. Results from a uniform warming scenario of +1 °C show an average wheat yield reduction of 8.5%, which increases to 18.4% and 28.5% under +2 and +3 °C scenarios. We also find evidence of differences in heat effects across cultivars, which suggests warming impacts may be reduced through the sharing of gene pools amongst wheat breeding programs.