Impact of COVID-19 vaccination status on hospitalization and disease severity: A descriptive study in Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was extraordinarily harmful, with high rates of infection and hospitalization. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination status and other factors on hospitalization and disease severity, using data from Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan. Confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection with vaccination status were included and the differences in characteristics between different vaccination statuses, hospitalization or not, and patients with varying levels of disease severity were analyzed. Furthermore, logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratio (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the association of various factors with hospitalization and disease severity. From March 14, 2020 to August 31, 2022, 23,139 patients were unvaccinated 13,668 vaccinated the primary program with one or two doses, and 4,575 completed the booster. Vaccination reduced the risk of hospitalization with an odd ratio of 0.759 (95% CI: 0.654-0.881) and the protective effect of completed booster vaccination was more pronounced (OR: 0.261, 95% CI: 0.207-0.328). Similarly, vaccination significantly reduced the risk of disease severity (vaccinated primary program: OR: 0.191, 95% CI: 0.160-0.228; completed booster vaccination: OR: 0.129, 95% CI: 0.099-0.169). Overall, unvaccinated, male, elderly, immunocompromised, obese, and patients with other severe illness factors were all risk factors for COVID-19-related hospitalization and disease severity. Vaccination was associated with a decreased risk of hospitalization and disease severity, and highlighted the benefits of completing booster.

The Effects of Overnight Fasting Duration on Glucose and Lipid Metabolism in a Sprague-Dawley Rat Model of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis with Advanced Fibrosis.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) can progress to hepatic fibrosis, and is associated with cardiovascular and liver-related mortality. To understand the pathogenesis of NASH, reliable animal models of the disease are useful. In animal studies, the animals are usually fasted overnight before biospecimens are taken, but little is known about the effects of fasting. Here, we investigated the impact of overnight fasting for approximately 9 to 17 h on glucose and lipid metabolism in a Sprague-Dawley (SD) rat model of diet-induced moderate and advanced NASH in comparison to normal SD rats. Our results revealed that in the moderate NASH model rats, the fasting duration did not affect glucose and lipid metabolism, the histopathological findings, or the hepatic mRNA expression levels of genes related to lipid metabolism, cholesterol metabolism, inflammation, fibrosis, and oxidative stress. In contrast, in the normal rats, significant fasting time-dependent reductions were observed in the epididymal fat pad weight and the hepatic mRNA expression levels of adipose differentiation-related protein and heme oxygenase-1. Moreover, in the advanced NASH model rats, a significant fasting time-dependent reduction and increase were observed in the serum insulin level and mRNA expression level of alpha-smooth muscle actin, respectively. Our present results suggest that the influence of the overnight fasting duration differs among the healthy condition, moderate NASH, and advanced NASH statuses. Further studies are needed in humans to determine the appropriate overnight fasting duration for the accurate evaluation of glucose and lipid metabolism in NASH patients.

Influence of Fasting Time on Serum and Hepatic Lipid Profiles in a Sprague-Dawley Rat Model of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is associated with several cardiovascular risk factors, including atherogenic dyslipidemia. Recently, fasting prior to lipid profile evaluation has been thought to be unnecessary for most individuals. We investigated the impact of fasting for up to 9 h on the serum and hepatic lipid profiles in Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats of dietary-induced NASH model in comparison to SD rats fed a normal diet. In both groups, fasting affected the serum and hepatic triglyceride (TG), serum free fatty acid (FFA) and leptin levels, histopathologically assessed hepatocyte ballooning, and hepatic mRNA expression levels of several genes related to lipid metabolism. In contrast, the serum adiponectin and aminotransferase levels, serum and hepatic total cholesterol contents, and liver histopathological findings of hepatic steatosis, lobular inflammation and fibrosis were not influenced by fasting. A significant fasting time-dependent reduction was seen in the serum TG level only in the normal SD rats group. Regarding the hepatic TG level, a significant fasting time-dependent increase was seen only in the NASH model rat group. A significant fasting time-dependent reduction was also seen in the serum FFA level only in the NASH model rat group. Our present results indicate that excessive fasting can be avoided before blood or hepatic tissue sampling for the evaluation of several parameters in non-NASH and/or NASH model rats. Further investigations are needed in humans to determine whether excessive fasting before blood or hepatic tissue sampling can be avoided in both healthy individuals and NASH patients.

Analytical estimation of maximum fraction of infected individuals with one-shot non-pharmaceutical intervention in a hybrid epidemic model.

BACKGROUND: Facing a global epidemic of new infectious diseases such as COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which reduce transmission rates without medical actions, are being implemented around the world to mitigate spreads. One of the problems in assessing the effects of NPIs is that different NPIs have been implemented at different times based on the situation of each country; therefore, few assumptions can be shared about how the introduction of policies affects the patient population. Mathematical models can contribute to further understanding these phenomena by obtaining analytical solutions as well as numerical simulations. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study, an NPI was introduced into the SIR model for a conceptual study of infectious diseases under the condition that the transmission rate was reduced to a fixed value only once within a finite time duration, and its effect was analyzed numerically and theoretically. It was analytically shown that the maximum fraction of infected individuals and the final size could be larger if the intervention starts too early. The analytical results also suggested that more individuals may be infected at the peak of the second wave with a stronger intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides quantitative relationship between the strength of a one-shot intervention and the reduction in the number of patients with no approximation. This suggests the importance of the strength and time of NPIs, although detailed studies are necessary for the implementation of NPIs in complicated real-world environments as the model used in this study is based on various simplifications.

The association between the dynamics of COVID-19, related measures, and daytime population in Tokyo.

In Japan, a novel coronavirus has been prevalent since January 2020. The Japanese and local governments have implemented various measures, including declaring a state of emergency, according to the epidemic situation in each region. This study estimated the effective reproduction number (Rt) using the number of confirmed positive cases and positivity rates in Tokyo and examined the association between Rt and the rate of increase/decrease in the number of people across 12 sites. In Tokyo, there were five waves in which Rt was persistently estimated as approximately 1.0. The fourth and fifth waves started under the declaration of the state of emergency and coincided with an increase in the number of people. However, the contribution of the number of people to Rt was inconsistent, even when the number of people was of the same magnitude. A possible reason for this is difference in the countermeasures content, as the impact of vaccination was considered to be minor at the time. Where vaccination is insufficient, the wave is terminated by controlling the number of people leaving their homes. It is suggested that infection could be controlled more efficiently, depending on the content of the countermeasures.

Association between lithium in tap water and suicide mortality rates in Miyazaki Prefecture.

BACKGROUND: Most studies have reported that suicide mortality rates are negatively associated with lithium levels in tap water; however, a few studies showed either no association or a positive association. Thus, the association between suicide mortality and lithium levels in tap water remains controversial. To clarify the association, our study evaluated the association between lithium levels in tap water and suicide mortality rates in Miyazaki Prefecture of Japan, after adjusting for confounding factors. METHODS: We measured lithium levels in tap water across the 26 municipalities of Miyazaki Prefecture in Japan. We examined the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for suicide in each municipality and used the data as the average suicide SMRs over 5 years (2009-2013). Weighted least-squares regression analysis, adjusted for the size of each municipality's population, was used to investigate the association between lithium levels in tap water and suicide SMRs. In addition to a crude model, in an adjusted model, potential confounding factors (proportion of elderly people, proportion of one-person households, annual marriage rate, annual mean income, unemployment rate, the density of medical doctors per 100,000 people, annual total rainfall, and proportion of people with a college education or higher) were added as covariates. RESULTS: We showed that male and female suicide SMRs were not associated with lithium levels in tap water in Miyazaki Prefecture. After adjusting for confounders, male suicide SMRs were significantly and positively associated with the proportion of elderly people in the population and annual total rainfall, and female suicide SMRs were associated with the proportion of elderly people in the population. CONCLUSIONS: No association between lithium levels in tap water and suicide mortality rates was found in Miyazaki Prefecture.

Effects of influenza vaccination on seasonal influenza symptoms: A prospective observational study in elementary schoolchildren in Japan.

Although influenza vaccine has been shown to prevent influenza symptom onset, its further beneficial effects after vaccinated individuals become symptomatic remain undetermined. This epidemiological survey compared influenza symptoms in subjects diagnosed with influenza who were and were not vaccinated. A prospective survey was performed among the 13,217 schoolchildren who attended all 29 public elementary schools in Matsumoto City, Nagano Prefecture, Japan, during the 2014/2015 influenza season. Information about symptoms and background demographic and clinical factors were obtained from a questionnaire. Of these schoolchildren, 2,548 were diagnosed with influenza and 1,122 were previously vaccinated and 1,426 were unvaccinated. Fever duration and frequency of symptoms and hospitalization were compared in vaccinated and unvaccinated children. The hospitalization rate was lower in vaccinated children, whereas symptom frequency and fever duration were similar in the two groups. This study showed that hospitalization was less in vaccinated children. Vaccination may attenuate symptom intensity after symptom onset.

Estimation of the effective reproduction number of influenza based on weekly reports in Miyazaki Prefecture.

In Japan, as part of surveillance for seasonal influenza, the number of patients per influenza sentinel site is counted on a weekly basis. Currently, reference values are set for the weekly reported number of influenza cases per sentinel, and pre-epidemic and epidemic warnings are issued based on these values. In this study, we examined the association between these reference values and the effective reproduction number (Rt) using surveillance data for Miyazaki Prefecture collected from 2010 to 2011. There are nine public health centre jurisdictions in this prefecture, and Rt exceeded 1.0 at the time when pre-epidemic warnings were issued in almost all the jurisdictions. Thus, it was indicated that the validity of the reference value was also high for influenza transmission. However, our results indicated the presence of secondary epidemic caused by infections originating both from other jurisdictions and inner jurisdictions, and it is occasionally not possible to evaluate the end of an epidemic in a jurisdiction using only the reference value of termination. It is necessary to establish new methods after considering the situation in the surrounding jurisdictions for more detailed epidemic predictions.

Longitudinal genotyping surveillance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in an area with high tuberculosis incidence shows high transmission rate of the modern Beijing subfamily in Japan.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a severe and wide-spread infectious disease worldwide. The modern Beijing subfamily, one lineage of M. tuberculosis, reportedly has high pathogenicity and transmissibility. This study used a molecular epidemiological approach to investigate the transmissibility of the modern Beijing subfamily in the Airin area of Osaka City, Japan. During 2006-2016, we collected 596 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates in the Airin area, Osaka city, Japan. We analyzed the 24-locus variable number of tandem repeats typing optimized for the Beijing family of isolates, M. tuberculosis lineage, and patient epidemiological data. The proportion of the modern Beijing subfamily was significantly higher not only than previously obtained data for the Airin area: it was also higher than the nationwide in Japan. The rate of recent clusters, defined as a variable number of tandem repeats profile identified within two years, of the modern Beijing subfamily was significantly higher than that the rate of recent clusters of the ancient Beijing subfamily. Results suggest that TB control measures formulated with attention to the modern Beijing subfamily might be an important benchmark to understanding recent TB transmission in the area.

Current health status and its risk factors of the Tsarang villagers living at high altitude in the Mustang district of Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiology of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes mellitus (DM) are influenced by multiple hosts and environmental factors. This study aims to investigate the prevalence of NCDs and determine their risk factors among the adults residing in an isolated village situated at a rural highland of Nepal. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a village located at 3570 m. Each 188 randomly selected participants of age ≥ 18 years old answered a questionnaire and took a full physical exam that included biomedical measurements of glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c). RESULTS: The prevalence of intermediate hyperglycemia and DM was 31.6% and 4.6% respectively, and the prevalence of hypoxemia (SpO2 < 90%) was 27.1%. A multiple logistic regression analysis for factors for the prevalence of glucose intolerance (HbA1c ≥ 6%) revealed older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.16, for every 1 year increase) and SpO2 (OR for hypoxemia 3.58, 95% CI 1.20-10.68, vs SpO2 ≥ 90%). CONCLUSIONS: Tibetan highlanders in the remote mountainous Mustang valley of Nepal have high prevalence of impaired glucose metabolism which could be related to hypoxemia imposed by the hypoxic conditions of high altitude living.

High vaccination coverage is associated with low epidemic level of seasonal influenza in elementary schools: an observational study in Matsumoto City, Japan.

BACKGROUND: Influenza virus transmission may be prevented by infection control measures, including vaccination, wearing a mask, gargling with water, and hand washing. It is unclear, however, whether these measures affect influenza epidemics in school settings. METHODS: A prospective epidemiological survey in all public elementary schools in Matsumoto City, Japan, during the 2014/2015 season evaluated the number of diagnosed patients in each school and calculated the reproduction number of schoolchildren. At the end of the prospective survey, a cross-sectional survey evaluated the implementation of infection control measures in these schools. Both results were combined and associations among infection control measures including vaccination, mask wearing, hand washing, water gargling, and epidemic level were evaluated. RESULTS: Of the 13,217 schoolchildren in 29 schools, 2548 were diagnosed with seasonal influenza. A significant negative association was observed between vaccination coverage and reproduction number at each school, but not between other infection control measures and the reproduction number. A regression curve with exponential function was most predictive. At 0% vaccination, the reproduction number was estimated to be 1.39. CONCLUSION: These findings provide evidence that high vaccination coverage was associated with reduced epidemic levels in schools and suggest the need for increased vaccination of schoolchildren.

Effectiveness of vaccination and wearing masks on seasonal influenza in Matsumoto City, Japan, in the 2014/2015 season: An observational study among all elementary schoolchildren.

Measures of seasonal influenza control are generally divided into two categories: pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The effectiveness of these measures remains unclear, because of insufficient study sample size and/or differences in study settings. This observational epidemiological study involved all elementary schoolchildren in Matsumoto City, Japan, with seasonal influenza during the 2014/2015 season. Questionnaires, including experiences with influenza diagnosis and socio-demographic factors, were distributed to all 29 public elementary schools, involving 13,217 children, at the end of February 2015. Data were obtained from 10,524 children and analyzed with multivariate logistic regression analysis. The result showed that vaccination (odds ratio 0.866, 95% confidence interval 0.786-0.954) and wearing masks (0.859, 0.778-0.949) had significant protective association. Hand washing (1.447, 1.274-1.644) and gargling (1.319, 1.183-1.471), however, were not associated with protection. In the natural setting, hand washing and gargling showed a negative association, which may have been due to inappropriate infection control measures or aggregating infected and non-infected children to conduct those measures. These results may indicate a pathway for influenza transmission and explain why seasonal influenza control remains difficult in school settings. The overall effectiveness of vaccination and mask wearing was 9.9% and 8.6%, respectively. After dividing children into higher (grades 4-6) and lower (grade 1-3) grade groups, the effectiveness of vaccination became greater in the lower grade group, and the effectiveness of wearing masks became greater in the higher grade group. These results may provide valuable information about designing infection control measures that allocate resources among children.

Prospective Epidemiological Evaluation of Seasonal Influenza in All Elementary Schoolchildren in Matsumoto City, Japan, in 2014/2015.

Seasonal influenza is known to spread within and among educational organizations. Detailed understanding of the pattern of infection requires comprehensive prospective epidemiological studies, involving all schools within a community. This prospective survey evaluated 13,217 schoolchildren attending all of the 29 public elementary schools in Matsumoto City, Japan, in 2014/2015. Questionnaires were distributed to school nurses to obtain information about onset date and suspected route of transmission of influenza for all schoolchildren diagnosed with influenza virus at medical institutions. Responses were obtained for 2,548 infected schoolchildren, representing 96% of reported cases. Epidemic curves were plotted for each school by calculating the numbers of incident cases. Distance between schools was not associated with influenza spread over time. However, modeling showed that the occurrence of initial infection at each school and its spread over time could be fitted with a logistic curve. The transmission route for most children initially infected at each school was through a household member, whereas for most remaining schoolchildren it was through the school. These findings indicated that seasonal influenza was initially transmitted to schoolchildren by household members and then spread throughout the schools, with the initially infected child at each school fitting logistic curves over time.

Quantitative effects of a declaration of a state of emergency on foot-and-mouth disease.

OBJECTIVES: The law in Japan requires the declaration of a state of emergency and implementation of countermeasures for an epidemic of a new infectious disease. However, because a state of emergency has never been declared in Japan, its effects remain unknown. The required countermeasures are similar to those implemented in the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Miyazaki in 2010. This study aimed to quantitatively estimate the effect of the declaration in 2010 and investigate the nature of the epidemic based on the day on which the declaration took effect. METHODS: Only publicly available data were used. Data for farms in the most affected town were analyzed. A modified susceptible-infected-recovered model was used to estimate the effect and for the simulation. Another model was used to estimate the effective reproduction number. RESULTS: After the declaration, the intra-bovine transmission rate decreased by 18.1 %, and there were few days when the effective reproduction number was >1.0. A few weeks delay in the declaration significantly increased the possibility of epidemic, number of farms at peak, and final infection scale. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the substantial decrease in the transmission rate after the declaration of a state of emergency in 2010, a future declaration will have a similar effect for a new infectious disease even though a direct extrapolation is not valid. Although a declaration should be carefully considered owing to the potential socioeconomic effects, it is essential to prepare for the implementation given that a delay of only a few weeks should be acceptable.

XPC intron11 C/A polymorphism as a risk factor for prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES: DNA repair genes play an important role in protection against environmental and endogenous DNA damage, and constitute the first line of defense against cancer. Xeroderma pigmentosum complementation group C (XPC) is involved in the damage recognition step during nucleotide excision repair. The relationship between XPC intron11 C/A polymorphism and cancer risk has not been widely studied. Hence, this study evaluated the relationship between the XPC intron11 C/A polymorphism and prostate cancer risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This hospital-based cohort consisted of 152 patients with prostate cancer and 142 male controls. The XPC intron11 C/A genotype was determined using the PCR-RFLP method. Medical, occupational, and cigarette-smoking history was obtained from each participant using questionnaires. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis revealed that compared to controls, the frequencies of the A/A and C/A genotypes were significantly higher than those of the C/C genotype in cancer patients (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-3.98 and OR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.13-3.24, respectively). We also found that the frequency of the A/A genotype was significantly higher in cancer cases than in controls among non-smokers (OR = 7.7, 95% CI 1.38-42.88, compared to the C/C genotype). CONCLUSION: We found that the XPC intron11 C/A polymorphism was associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer. Among non-smokers, the A/A genotype was significantly more prevalent in prostate cancer patients than in controls.

Trace lithium is inversely associated with male suicide after adjustment of climatic factors.

BACKGROUND: Previously, we showed the inverse association between lithium in drinking water and male suicide in Kyushu Island. The narrow variation in meteorological factors of Kyushu Island and a considerable amount of evidence regarding the role of the factors on suicide provoked the necessities of adjusting the association by the wide variation in sunshine, temperature, rain fall, and snow fall. METHODS: To keep the wide variation in meteorological factors, we combined the data of Kyushu (the southernmost city is Itoman, 26°) and Hokkaido (the northernmost city is Wakkanai, 45°). Multiple regression analyses were used to predict suicide SMRs (total, male and female) by lithium levels in drinking water and meteorological factors. RESULTS: After adjustment of meteorological factors, lithium levels were significantly and inversely associated with male suicide SMRs, but not with total or female suicide SMRs, across the 153 cities of Hokkaido and Kyushu Islands. Moreover, annual total sunshine and annual mean temperature were significantly and inversely associated with male suicide SMRs whereas annual total rainfall was significantly and directly associated with male suicide SMRs. LIMITATIONS: The limitations of the present study include the lack of data relevant to lithium levels in food and the proportion of the population who drank tap water and their consumption habits. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings suggest that trace lithium is inversely associated with male but not female suicide after adjustment of meteorological factors.

Shift-work disorder and sleep-related environmental factors in the manufacturing industry.

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between shift-work disorder (SWD) and environmental and somatic factors related to falling asleep among rapidly rotating shift workers in a manufacturing industry.A total of 556 male workers were recruited to complete a self-administered questionnaire regarding age, shift work experience, lifestyle, and family structure; the Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS); the Pittsburgh sleep quality index (PSQI); and the Horne and Ostberg questionnaire, a questionnaire for environmental and somatic factors related to falling asleep. We classified workers according to having SWD or not, and compared workers with SWD with those without this disorder in terms of all items covered in the aforementioned questionnaires. A total of 208 workers (62.8%) working rapidly rotating shifts were diagnosed with SWD. The ESS and PSQI scores and scores for environmental and somatic factors were significantly higher in workers with SWD than in those without this disorder. The ESS scores and scores for environmental and somatic factors were also associated with SWD in the logistic regression analyses. We suggest that susceptibility to SWD in the manufacturing industry may be associated with environmental and somatic factors related to falling asleep.

The genotype of the transporter associated with antigen processing gene affects susceptibility to colorectal cancer in Japanese.

OBJECTIVE: Although colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most frequent malignancies in Japan, the associated genetic factors remain to be elucidated. Functional loss of the transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP) 1 gene induces carcinogenesis. We investigated whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the TAP1 gene (rs735883) are associated with susceptibility to CRC in a Japanese population. METHODS: The study participants were 143 cases and 243 clinical controls. After extracting DNA from their peripheral blood cells, genotyping was conducted by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method. RESULTS: Participants with a mutated allele had an increased risk for CRC. The adjusted odds ratios for the C/T, T/T, and the mutation type (C/T + T/T) compared to that of wild type (C/C) were 2.27 [95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.43-3.67], 1.95 (95 % CI, 0.88-4.30), and 2.22 (95 % CI, 1.42-3.55), respectively. Furthermore, a significant trend in the rate of cases was observed with an increasing number of mutated alleles (P for trend = 0.0068). CONCLUSIONS: The genotype of the TAP1 gene is associated with susceptibility to CRC.

ADRB3 polymorphism associated with BMI gain in Japanese men.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the Trp64Arg polymorphism in the beta3-adrenergic receptor gene (ADRB3: rs4994) and BMI and serological and anthropometric data in healthy Japanese. METHODS: Healthy Japanese recruited in a large-scale integrated manufacturing facility in Japan (N = 1355; age: 37.25 ± 9.43; BMI: 22.86 ± 3.46) were eligible for analysis. The anthropometric data and serological data were measured during a comprehensive health check, and a self-reporting questionnaire was used to assess lifestyle habits (current exercise, smoking status, alcohol intake, and working style) and weight at age 20. Genotyping for the ADRB3 polymorphism was performed by PCR-RFLP method. RESULTS: Among 1355 participants, the genotype frequencies of the Trp/Trp, Trp/Arg, and Arg/Arg variants were 920 (67.9%), 394 (29.1%), and 41 (3.05%), respectively. In the multivariate analysis, a multiple linear regression model in men for the adjustment of age, drinking habits, smoking habits, exercise habits, working status and serological measurements statistically showed an overall weak significance between annual BMI gain from age 20 and age, LDL or ADRB3 polymorphism. CONCLUSIONS: The level of LDL, age, and ADRB3 polymorphism (Arg/Arg genotype) were statistically associated with annual BMI gain in Japanese men.

[Predicting spread of new pandemic swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) in local mid-size city: evaluation of hospital bed shortage and effectiveness of vaccination].

OBJECTIVES: On April 24th, 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) was first reported in Mexico. Japan confirmed cases of the flu on May 9th, and the pandemic in Japan has become full-scale. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan announced that the first peak of this pandemic was predicted to occur in October, 2009. Therefore, it is most important to predict the progress of this pandemic to be able to use medical resources effectively in Japan. METHODS: We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to calculate the number of infected people and hospital bed shortage during this pandemic. In this model, available medical resources were investigated on the basis of four vaccination scenarios. RESULTS: Our model showed that it would take a further six months for the pandemic to peak than was predicted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Without vaccination, at the peak of the pandemic 23,689 out of 400,000 people would be infected and the hospital bed shortage would reach 7,349 in total. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that mathematical models are strong tools to predict the spread of infectious diseases. According to our model, it is possible to prevent hospital bed shortage by vaccination.