Teleintervention's effects on breastfeeding in low-income women in high income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many mothers in high-income countries (HIC) do not breastfeed to the World Health Organisation's recommendation of two years. This is particularly true for low-income women (LIW). They often face additional socio-structural barriers that encourage early discontinuation and are inadequately supported by current healthcare interventions. Teleinterventions are flexible and widely used following the global pandemic and increase maternal autonomy over intervention delivery. They show promise in improving other maternal conditions in LIW, including postpartum depression. Teleinterventions can increase breastfeeding rates in the wider maternal population, however their efficacy for this underserved population has not yet been systematically assessed. This meta-analysis aimed to identify if teleinterventions increase 'exclusive' or 'any' breastfeeding by LIW in HIC at 1-, 3-4, and 6-months postpartum. METHODS: We searched five online databases for randomised controlled trials assessing breastfeeding teleinterventions for LIW in HIC. Risk ratios (RR) were used to calculate the average effect of teleinterventions on 'any' and 'exclusive' breastfeeding at at 1-, 3-4, and 6-months postpartum using random effects meta-analysis. Study bias was assessed using the Revised Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomised trials (RoB2), and outcome quality was evaluated against GRADE criteria. RESULTS: Nine studies met inclusion criteria: six providing telephone calls, two text messages and one an online support group. All the studies were conducted in the United States, with small sample sizes and a high risk of bias. Pooled results indicate teleinterventions modestly increase 'any' and 'exclusive' breastfeeding at all time points, with a statistically significant increase in 'exclusive' breastfeeding after 3-4 months (RR 1.12, 95% CI [1.00,1.25]). At 3-4 months teleinterventions providing peer support were more effective than educational teleinterventions at promoting any and exclusive breastfeeding. Evidence for all outcomes were rated 'low' or 'very low' quality using the GRADE tool, mainly due to high attrition and low power. CONCLUSIONS: Despite insufficient high-quality research into breastfeeding teleinterventions for LIW, our results suggest teleinterventions may improve exclusive and any breastfeeding. Given breastfeeding is particularly low in LIW population from HIC, our findings are promising and require further exploration by larger, methodologically sound trials in other HIC.

Long-term air pollution exposure and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection: A UK-wide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The association between air quality and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection is poorly understood. We investigated this association using serological individual-level data adjusting for a wide range of confounders, in a large population-based cohort (COVIDENCE UK). METHODS: We assessed the associations between long-term (2015-19) nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), exposures with SARS-CoV-2 infection, level of antibody response among those infected, and COVID-19 disease severity. We used serological data from 10,489 participants in the COVIDENCE UK cohort, and estimated annual average air pollution exposure at each participant's home postcode. RESULTS: After controlling for potential confounders, we found a positive association between 5-year NO2 and PM2.5 exposures and the risk of seropositivity: 10 unit increase in NO2 (µg/m3) was associated with an increasing risk of seropositivity by 1.092 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.17; p-for-trend 0.012). For PM2.5, 10 unit increase (µg/m3) was associated with an increasing risk of seropositivity by 1.65 (95% CI 1.015-2.68; p-for-trend 0·049). In addition, we found that NO2 was positively associated with higher antibody titres (p-for-trend 0·013) among seropositive participants, with no evidence of an association for PM2.5. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the long-term burden of air pollution increased the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and has important implications for future pandemic preparedness. This evidence strengthens the case for reducing long-term air pollution exposures to reduce the vulnerability of individuals to respiratory viruses.

Body weight changes and diabetes mellitus incident: A cohort study from the Middle East.

Objective: Obesity is a known risk factor for diabetes, but the effect of weight changes on the incidence of diabetes is not yet determined. This study aims to evaluate the long-term effects of weight change [based on body mass index (BMI)] on the incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in a middle eastern population. Method: In the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) 6504 adults equal or greater than 35 years of age were recruited at 2001 and were followed until 2013. Absolute BMI changes (ΔBMI) were calculated by subtracting the baseline BMI from the BMI measured at follow-ups. To compare participants with different baseline BMI easier, relative changes in BMI were quantified as the percentage of changes from baseline. DM was assessed based on standard definitions. Multivariable Cox regression was used to determine the association between ΔBMI and the incidence of diabetes. Results: During follow-ups, 261 new cases of diabetes were recorded, with an IR of 3401.29 per 100,000 P-Y. The highest number of new cases of type 2 DM belongs to participants with overweight and obesity who had minimal BMI changes (less than 5% of their baseline BMI limits; 42 and 38 new cases, respectively). Participants who were obese at baseline and had lost more than 10% or gained 5-10% of baseline BMI were in the groups with the highest IR [360.05-95% CI (239.3-541.8) and 322.39-95% CI (178.5-582.1) respectively]. There was no significant association between BMI changes and the incidence of DM in the participants with normal BMI, overweight, and obesity at baseline in cure and adjusted models. Conclusions: This study showed there was no significant association between diabetes mellitus incidence and BMI changes.

Long-term symptom profiles after COVID-19 vs other acute respiratory infections: an analysis of data from the COVIDENCE UK study.

Background: Long COVID is a well recognised, if heterogeneous, entity. Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) due to other pathogens may cause long-term symptoms, but few studies compare post-acute sequelae between SARS-CoV-2 and other ARIs. We aimed to compare symptom profiles between people with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, people with previous non-COVID-19 ARIs, and contemporaneous controls, and to identify clusters of long-term symptoms. Methods: COVIDENCE UK is a prospective, population-based UK study of ARIs in adults. We analysed data for 16 potential long COVID symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), reported between January 21 and February 15, 2021, by participants unvaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. We classified participants as having previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or previous non-COVID-19 ARI (≥4 weeks prior) or no reported ARI. We compared symptoms by infection status using logistic and fractional regression, and identified symptom clusters using latent class analysis (LCA). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04330599. Findings: We included 10,171 participants (1311 [12.9%] with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 472 [4.6%] with non-COVID-19 ARI). Both types of infection were associated with increased prevalence/severity of most symptoms and decreased HRQoL compared with no infection. Participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection had increased odds of problems with taste/smell (odds ratio 19.74, 95% CI 10.53-37.00) and lightheadedness or dizziness (1.74, 1.18-2.56) compared with participants with non-COVID-19 ARIs. Separate LCA models identified three symptom severity groups for each infection type. In the most severe groups (representing 22% of participants for both SARS-CoV-2 and non-COVID-19 ARI), SARS-CoV-2 infection presented with a higher probability of problems with taste/smell (probability 0.41 vs 0.04), hair loss (0.25 vs 0.16), unusual sweating (0.38 vs 0.25), unusual racing of the heart (0.43 vs 0.33), and memory problems (0.70 vs 0.55) than non-COVID-19 ARI. Interpretation: Both SARS-CoV-2 and non-COVID-19 ARIs are associated with a wide range of symptoms more than 4 weeks after the acute infection. Research on post-acute sequelae of ARIs should extend from SARS-CoV-2 to include other pathogens. Funding: Barts Charity.

Are different perceived stressors associated with metabolic syndrome: a longitudinal cohort study of adults in central Iran.

Purpose: The link between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and various stressors has not been thoroughly investigated. We aimed to examine the relationship between MetS and different perceived stressors. Methods: In this study, we included participants of the Isfahan Cohort study from three counties in central Iran, with data in the 2007 (n = 3178) and 2013 (n = 1693) follow-up stages. We examined the association between distress and perceived stress domains (including job security, job conflicts, personal conflicts, loss and separation, social relations, and health concerns) and MetS. Results: MetS was identified in 35.8% of participants in the 2007 cohort and 46.2% in the 2013 cohort. In the fully adjusted analysis, the odds ratio (OR) (95%CI) for MetS according to psychological status was 1.65 (1.64-1.65) for psychological distress level, 1.09 (1.01-1.20) for psychological distress score, and 1.21 (1.09-1.42) for total perceived stress score. There was also evidence of association for social relations, personal conflicts, job conflicts, job security, health concern, loss and separation, educational concerns, and sexual life subscales. Conclusion: Perceived stressors and some of their subscales were associated with MetS.

Cardiovascular disease incidence prediction by machine learning and statistical techniques: a 16-year cohort study from eastern Mediterranean region.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the predominant cause of early death worldwide. Identification of people with a high risk of being affected by CVD is consequential in CVD prevention. This study adopts Machine Learning (ML) and statistical techniques to develop classification models for predicting the future occurrence of CVD events in a large sample of Iranians. METHODS: We used multiple prediction models and ML techniques with different abilities to analyze the large dataset of 5432 healthy people at the beginning of entrance into the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) (1990-2017). Bayesian additive regression trees enhanced with "missingness incorporated in attributes" (BARTm) was run on the dataset with 515 variables (336 variables without and the remaining with up to 90% missing values). In the other used classification algorithms, variables with more than 10% missing values were excluded, and MissForest imputes the missing values of the remaining 49 variables. We used Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to select the most contributing variables. Random oversampling technique, recommended cut-point by precision-recall curve, and relevant evaluation metrics were used for handling unbalancing in the binary response variable. RESULTS: This study revealed that age, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood sugar, two-hour postprandial glucose, diabetes mellitus, history of heart disease, history of high blood pressure, and history of diabetes are the most contributing factors for predicting CVD incidence in the future. The main differences between the results of classification algorithms are due to the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) algorithm presents the highest accuracy (75.50 ± 0.08) but the minimum sensitivity (49.84 ± 0.25); In contrast, decision trees provide the lowest accuracy (51.95 ± 0.69) but the top sensitivity (82.52 ± 1.22). BARTm.90% resulted in 69.48 ± 0.28 accuracy and 54.00 ± 1.66 sensitivity without any preprocessing step. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed that building a prediction model for CVD in each region is valuable for screening and primary prevention strategies in that specific region. Also, results showed that using conventional statistical models alongside ML algorithms makes it possible to take advantage of both techniques. Generally, QDA can accurately predict the future occurrence of CVD events with a fast (inference speed) and stable (confidence values) procedure. The combined ML and statistical algorithm of BARTm provide a flexible approach without any need for technical knowledge about assumptions and preprocessing steps of the prediction procedure.

Dietary patterns, lung function and asthma in childhood: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal epidemiological data are scarce examining the relationship between dietary patterns and respiratory outcomes in childhood. We investigated whether three distinct dietary patterns in mid-childhood were associated with lung function and incident asthma in adolescence. METHODS: In the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, 'processed', 'traditional', and 'health-conscious' dietary patterns were identified using principal components analysis from food frequency questionnaires at 7 years of age. Post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and forced expiratory flow at 25-75% of FVC (FEF25-75) were measured at 15.5 years and were transformed to z-scores based on the Global Lung Function Initiative curves. Incident asthma was defined by new cases of doctor-diagnosed asthma at age 11 or 14 years. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted models, the 'health-conscious' pattern was positively associated with FEV1 (regression coefficient comparing top versus bottom quartile of pattern score 0.16, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.31, P for trend 0.04) and FVC (0.18, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.33, P for trend 0.02), while the 'processed' pattern was negatively associated with FVC (- 0.17, 95% CI - 0.33 to - 0.01, P for trend 0.03). Associations between the 'health-conscious' and 'processed' patterns and lung function were modified by SCGB1A1 and GPX4 gene polymorphisms. We found no evidence of an association between the 'traditional' pattern and lung function, nor between any pattern and FEF25-75 or incident asthma. CONCLUSIONS: A 'health-conscious' diet in mid-childhood was associated with higher subsequent lung function, while a diet high in processed food was associated with lower lung function.

Incidence determinants and serological correlates of reactive symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.

Prospective population-based studies investigating associations between reactive symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and serologic responses to vaccination are lacking. We therefore conducted a study in 9003 adults from the UK general population receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccines as part of the national vaccination programme. Titres of combined IgG/IgA/IgM responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) glycoprotein were determined in eluates of dried blood spots collected from all participants before and after vaccination. 4262 (47.3%) participants experienced systemic reactive symptoms after a first vaccine dose. Factors associating with lower risk of such symptoms included older age (aOR per additional 10 years of age 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.90), male vs. female sex (0.59, 0.53-0.65) and receipt of an mRNA vaccine vs. ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (0.29, 0.26-0.32 for BNT162b2; 0.06, 0.01-0.26 for mRNA-1273). Higher risk of such symptoms was associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and COVID-19 symptoms prior to vaccination (2.23, 1.78-2.81), but not with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in the absence of COVID-19 symptoms (0.94, 0.81-1.09). Presence vs. absence of self-reported anxiety or depression at enrolment associated with higher risk of such symptoms (1.24, 1.12-1.39). Post-vaccination anti-S titres were higher among participants who experienced reactive symptoms after vaccination vs. those who did not (P < 0.001). We conclude that factors influencing risk of systemic symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination include demographic characteristics, pre-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 serostatus and vaccine type. Participants experiencing reactive symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination had higher post-vaccination titres of IgG/A/M anti-S antibodies. Improved public understanding of the frequency of reactogenic symptoms and their positive association with vaccine immunogenicity could potentially increase vaccine uptake.

Rebound in asthma exacerbations following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions: a longitudinal population-based study (COVIDENCE UK).

BACKGROUND: The imposition of restrictions on social mixing early in the COVID-19 pandemic was followed by a reduction in asthma exacerbations in multiple settings internationally. Temporal trends in social mixing, incident acute respiratory infections (ARI) and asthma exacerbations following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions have not yet been described. METHODS: We conducted a population-based longitudinal study in 2312 UK adults with asthma between November 2020 and April 2022. Details of face covering use, social mixing, incident ARI and severe asthma exacerbations were collected via monthly online questionnaires. Temporal changes in these parameters were visualised using Poisson generalised additive models. Multilevel logistic regression was used to test for associations between incident ARI and risk of asthma exacerbations, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions from April 2021 coincided with reduced face covering use (p<0.001), increased frequency of indoor visits to public places and other households (p<0.001) and rising incidence of COVID-19 (p<0.001), non-COVID-19 ARI (p<0.001) and severe asthma exacerbations (p=0.007). Incident non-COVID-19 ARI associated independently with increased risk of asthma exacerbation (adjusted OR 5.75, 95% CI 4.75 to 6.97) as did incident COVID-19, both prior to emergence of the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 (5.89, 3.45 to 10.04) and subsequently (5.69, 3.89 to 8.31). CONCLUSIONS: Relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions coincided with decreased face covering use, increased social mixing and a rebound in ARI and asthma exacerbations. Associations between incident ARI and risk of severe asthma exacerbation were similar for non-COVID-19 ARI and COVID-19, both before and after emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant. STUDY REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04330599.

Effect of a test-and-treat approach to vitamin D supplementation on risk of all cause acute respiratory tract infection and covid-19: phase 3 randomised controlled trial (CORONAVIT).

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of population level implementation of a test-and-treat approach to correction of suboptimal vitamin D status (25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) <75 nmol/L) on risk of all cause acute respiratory tract infection and covid 19. DESIGN: Phase 3 open label randomised controlled trial. SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 6200 people aged ≥16 years who were not taking vitamin D supplements at baseline. INTERVENTIONS: Offer of a postal finger prick test of blood 25(OH)D concentration with provision of a six month supply of lower dose vitamin D (800 IU/day, n=1550) or higher dose vitamin D (3200 IU/day, n=1550) to those with blood 25(OH)D concentration <75 nmol/L, compared with no offer of testing or supplementation (n=3100). Follow-up was for six months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the proportion of participants with at least one swab test or doctor confirmed acute respiratory tract infection of any cause. A secondary outcome was the proportion of participants with swab test confirmed covid-19. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and associated 95% confidence intervals. The primary analysis was conducted by intention to treat. RESULTS: Of 3100 participants offered a vitamin D test, 2958 (95.4%) accepted and 2674 (86.3%) had 25(OH)D concentrations <75 nmol/L and received vitamin D supplements (n=1328 lower dose, n=1346 higher dose). Compared with 136/2949 (4.6%) participants in the no offer group, at least one acute respiratory tract infection of any cause occurred in 87/1515 (5.7%) in the lower dose group (odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.66) and 76/1515 (5.0%) in the higher dose group (1.09, 0.82 to 1.46). Compared with 78/2949 (2.6%) participants in the no offer group, 55/1515 (3.6%) developed covid-19 in the lower dose group (1.39, 0.98 to 1.97) and 45/1515 (3.0%) in the higher dose group (1.13, 0.78 to 1.63). CONCLUSIONS: Among people aged 16 years and older with a high baseline prevalence of suboptimal vitamin D status, implementation of a population level test-and-treat approach to vitamin D supplementation was not associated with a reduction in risk of all cause acute respiratory tract infection or covid-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04579640.

Determinants of Antibody Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Population-Based Longitudinal Study (COVIDENCE UK).

Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines vary for reasons that remain poorly understood. A range of sociodemographic, behavioural, clinical, pharmacologic and nutritional factors could explain these differences. To investigate this hypothesis, we tested for presence of combined IgG, IgA and IgM (IgGAM) anti-Spike antibodies before and after 2 doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (ChAdOx1, AstraZeneca) or BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) in UK adults participating in a population-based longitudinal study who received their first dose of vaccine between December 2020 and July 2021. Information on sixty-six potential sociodemographic, behavioural, clinical, pharmacologic and nutritional determinants of serological response to vaccination was captured using serial online questionnaires. We used logistic regression to estimate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for associations between independent variables and risk of seronegativity following two vaccine doses. Additionally, percentage differences in antibody titres between groups were estimated in the sub-set of participants who were seropositive post-vaccination using linear regression. Anti-spike antibodies were undetectable in 378/9101 (4.2%) participants at a median of 8.6 weeks post second vaccine dose. Increased risk of post-vaccination seronegativity associated with administration of ChAdOx1 vs. BNT162b2 (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 6.6, 95% CI 4.2−10.4), shorter interval between vaccine doses (aOR 1.6, 1.2−2.1, 6−10 vs. >10 weeks), poor vs. excellent general health (aOR 3.1, 1.4−7.0), immunodeficiency (aOR 6.5, 2.5−16.6) and immunosuppressant use (aOR 3.7, 2.4−5.7). Odds of seronegativity were lower for participants who were SARS-CoV-2 seropositive pre-vaccination (aOR 0.2, 0.0−0.6) and for those taking vitamin D supplements (aOR 0.7, 0.5−0.9). Serologic responses to vaccination did not associate with time of day of vaccine administration, lifestyle factors including tobacco smoking, alcohol intake and sleep, or use of anti-pyretics for management of reactive symptoms after vaccination. In a sub-set of 8727 individuals who were seropositive post-vaccination, lower antibody titres associated with administration of ChAdOx1 vs. BNT162b2 (43.4% lower, 41.8−44.8), longer duration between second vaccine dose and sampling (12.7% lower, 8.2−16.9, for 9−16 weeks vs. 2−4 weeks), shorter interval between vaccine doses (10.4% lower, 3.7−16.7, for <6 weeks vs. >10 weeks), receiving a second vaccine dose in October−December vs. April−June (47.7% lower, 11.4−69.1), older age (3.3% lower per 10-year increase in age, 2.1−4.6), and hypertension (4.1% lower, 1.1−6.9). Higher antibody titres associated with South Asian ethnicity (16.2% higher, 3.0−31.1, vs. White ethnicity) or Mixed/Multiple/Other ethnicity (11.8% higher, 2.9−21.6, vs. White ethnicity), higher body mass index (BMI; 2.9% higher, 0.2−5.7, for BMI 25−30 vs. <25 kg/m2) and pre-vaccination seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 (105.1% higher, 94.1−116.6, for those seropositive and experienced COVID-19 symptoms vs. those who were seronegative pre-vaccination). In conclusion, we identify multiple determinants of antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, many of which are modifiable.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection after primary vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 and after booster vaccination with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273: A population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK).

Background: Little is known about how demographic, behavioural, and vaccine-related factors affect risk of post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to identify risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection after primary and booster vaccinations. Methods: This prospective, population-based, UK study in adults (≥16 years) vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 assessed risk of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection up to February, 2022, for participants who completed a primary vaccination course (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2) and those who received a booster dose (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273). Cox regression models explored associations between sociodemographic, behavioural, clinical, pharmacological, and nutritional factors and test-positive breakthrough infection, adjusted for local weekly SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Findings: 1051 (7·1%) of 14 713 post-primary participants and 1009 (9·5%) of 10 665 post-booster participants reported breakthrough infection, over a median follow-up of 203 days (IQR 195-216) and 85 days (66-103), respectively. Primary vaccination with ChAdOx1 (vs BNT162b2) was associated with higher risk of infection in both post-primary analysis (adjusted hazard ratio 1·63, 95% CI 1·41-1·88) and after an mRNA-1273 booster (1·26 [1·00-1·57] vs BNT162b2 primary and booster). Lower risk of infection was associated with older age (post-primary: 0·97 [0·96-0·97] per year; post-booster: 0·97 [0·97-0·98]), whereas higher risk of infection was associated with lower educational attainment (post-primary: 1·78 [1·44-2·20] for primary/secondary vs postgraduate; post-booster: 1·46 [1·16-1·83]) and at least three weekly visits to indoor public places (post-primary: 1·36 [1·13-1·63] vs none; post-booster: 1·29 [1·07-1·56]). Interpretation: Vaccine type, socioeconomic status, age, and behaviours affect risk of breakthrough infection after primary and booster vaccinations. Funding: Barts Charity, UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund.

Correlation Between Postvaccination Anti-Spike Antibody Titers and Protection Against Breakthrough Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study.

In this population-based cohort of 7538 adults, combined immunoglobulin (Ig) G, IgA, and IgM (IgG/A/M) anti-spike titers measured after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination were predictive of protection against breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection. Discrimination was significantly improved by adjustment for factors influencing risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, including household overcrowding, public transport use, and visits to indoor public places. Anti-spike IgG/A/M titers showed positive correlation with neutralizing antibody titers (rs = 0.80 [95% confidence interval, .72-.86]; P < .001) and S peptide-stimulated interferon-γ concentrations (rs = 0.31 [.13-.47]; P < .001).

Do any kinds of perceived stressors lead to hypertension? A longitudinal cohort study.

Stress has been suggested as a contributing factor in the etiology and progression of hypertension in prior investigations. For a more comprehensive understanding of this concept, in this study, we aim to evaluate different domains of perceived stress and their possible contribution to the development of hypertension (HTN). This is a secondary analysis of the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS). We used data from 2007 and 2013. The 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and Stressful Life Events Questionnaire (SLEQ) were used to evaluate psychological distress and perceived stress in subjects, and a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to assess their association with HTN. Psychological distress had a significant positive relation with HTN that remained after full adjustment for other covariates. Individuals with high stress levels were 38% more likely to develop HTN (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.18, 1.59). After full adjustment, total perceived stress was significantly associated with a 15% increase in HTN development (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.29). Domains of perceived stress that were significantly associated with HTN independent of sociodemographic and lifestyle covariates were job conflict, job security, personal conflict, sexual life and daily life in both genders and financial problems in males (P < 0.01). The findings from this study underline the importance of identifying the effect of different sources of perceived stress to organize community-based strategies for the management of hypertension and help health professionals prioritize and efficiently allocate their resources for interventions.

Egg consumption and risk of cardiovascular events among Iranians: results from Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS).

PURPOSE: The association between egg consumption and cardiovascular events remains controversial. This study aims to evaluate this association in cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic coronary heart disease (ICHD), stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and CVD mortality in an Iranian population. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 6504 adults (age ≥ 35 years) with no history of CVD event at baseline. The frequency of egg consumption was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Participants were followed for 12 years and incidence of new CVD cases were determined through active examinations and linkages to multiple registries. Cox frailty models were conducted to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HR)s for cardiovascular events associated with egg consumption. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12 years, fully adjusted model [adjusted for age, sex, education, residency, smoking, daily physical activity, family history of CVD, metabolic syndrome, aspirin, body mass index and Global Dietary Index] revealed a null association between egg and cardiovascular events. Compared with non-consumers (&lt;1 time/week), higher egg consumption (≥3 time/week) was not associated with incident MI (HR = 1.44, 95% CI: 0.86, 2.41; P = 0.48), ICHD (HR = 1.26, 95% CI: 0.80, 1.99; P = 0.41), stroke (HR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.46, 1.38; P = 0.71) and CVD (HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.79, 1.40; P = 0.93). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that higher egg consumption is not associated with increased risk of MI, ICHD, stroke, and CVD among Iranians. Larger studies with longer duration of follow-up are warranted to explore these associations in populations with higher egg consumption.

Determinants of pre-vaccination antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK).

BACKGROUND: Prospective population-based studies investigating multiple determinants of pre-vaccination antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 are lacking. METHODS: We did a prospective population-based study in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-naive UK adults recruited between May 1 and November 2, 2020, without a positive swab test result for SARS-CoV-2 prior to enrolment. Information on 88 potential sociodemographic, behavioural, nutritional, clinical and pharmacological risk factors was obtained through online questionnaires, and combined IgG/IgA/IgM responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein were determined in dried blood spots obtained between November 6, 2020, and April 18, 2021. We used logistic and linear regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and adjusted geometric mean ratios (aGMRs) for potential determinants of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity (all participants) and antibody titres (seropositive participants only), respectively. RESULTS: Of 11,130 participants, 1696 (15.2%) were seropositive. Factors independently associated with  higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity included frontline health/care occupation (aOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.48-2.33), international travel (1.20, 1.07-1.35), number of visits to shops and other indoor public places (≥ 5 vs. 0/week: 1.29, 1.06-1.57, P-trend = 0.01), body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 vs. < 25 kg/m2 (1.24, 1.11-1.39), South Asian vs. White ethnicity (1.65, 1.10-2.49) and alcohol consumption ≥15 vs. 0 units/week (1.23, 1.04-1.46). Light physical exercise associated with  lower risk (0.80, 0.70-0.93, for ≥ 10 vs. 0-4 h/week). Among seropositive participants, higher titres of anti-Spike antibodies associated with factors including BMI ≥ 30 vs. < 25 kg/m2 (aGMR 1.10, 1.02-1.19), South Asian vs. White ethnicity (1.22, 1.04-1.44), frontline health/care occupation (1.24, 95% CI 1.11-1.39), international travel (1.11, 1.05-1.16) and number of visits to shops and other indoor public places (≥ 5 vs. 0/week: 1.12, 1.02-1.23, P-trend = 0.01); these associations were not substantially attenuated by adjustment for COVID-19 disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: Higher alcohol consumption and lower light physical exercise represent new modifiable risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Recognised associations between South Asian ethnic origin and obesity and higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity were independent of other sociodemographic, behavioural, nutritional, clinical, and pharmacological factors investigated. Among seropositive participants, higher titres of anti-Spike antibodies in people of South Asian ancestry and in obese people were not explained by greater COVID-19 disease severity in these groups.

Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in a Middle Eastern Country: Performance of the Globorisk and Score Functions in Four Population-Based Cohort Studies of Iran.

BACKGROUND: Considering the importance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction for healthcare systems and the limited information available in the Middle East, we evaluated the SCORE and Globorisk models to predict CVD death in a country of this region. METHODS: We included 24 427 participants (11 187 men) aged 40-80 years from four population-based cohorts in Iran. Updating approaches were used to recalibrate the baseline survival and the overall effect of the predictors of the models. We assessed the models' discrimination using C-index and then compared the observed with the predicted risk of death using calibration plots. The sensitivity and specificity of the models were estimated at the risk thresholds of 3%, 5%, 7%, and 10%. An agreement between models was assessed using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). We applied decision analysis to provide perception into the consequences of using the models in general practice; for this reason, the clinical usefulness of the models was assessed using the net benefit (NB) and decision curve analysis. The NB is a sensitivity penalized by a weighted false positive (FP) rate in population level. RESULTS: After 154 522 person-years of follow-up, 437 cardiovascular deaths (280 men) occurred. The 10-year observed risks were 4.2% (95% CI: 3.7%-4.8%) in men and 2.1% (1.8-2%.5%) in women. The c-index for SCORE function was 0.784 (0.756-0.812) in men and 0.780 (0.744-0.815) in women. Corresponding values for Globorisk were 0.793 (0.766- 0.820) and 0.793 (0.757-0.829). The deviation of the calibration slopes from one reflected a need for recalibration; after which, the predicted-to-observed ratio for both models was 1.02 in men and 0.95 in women. Models showed good agreement (ICC 0.93 in men, and 0.89 in women). Decision curve showed that using both models results in the same clinical usefulness at the risk threshold of 5%, in both men and women; however, at the risk threshold of 10%, Globorisk had better clinical usefulness in women (Difference: 8%, 95% CI: 4%-13%). CONCLUSION: Original Globorisk and SCORE models overestimate the CVD risk in Iranian populations resulting in a high number of people who need intervention. Recalibration could adopt these models to precisely predict CVD mortality. Globorisk showed better performance clinically, only among high-risk women.

An office-based cardiovascular prediction model developed and validated in cohort studies of a middle-income country.

OBJECTIVE: Prediction models for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality come from high-income countries, comprising laboratory measurements, not suitable for resource-limited countries. This study aims to develop and validate a non-laboratory model to predict CVD mortality in a middle-income setting. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used data of population aged 40-80 years from three cohort studies: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (n = 5160), Isfahan Cohort Study (n = 4350), and Golestan Cohort Study (n = 45,500). Using Cox proportional hazard models, we developed prediction models for men and women, separately. Cross-validation and bootstrapping procedures were applied. The models' discrimination and calibration were assessed by concordance statistic (C-index) and calibration plot, respectively. We calculated the models' sensitivity, specificity and net benefit fraction in a threshold probability of 5%. RESULTS: The 10-year CVD mortality risks were 5.1% (95%CI: 4.8-5.5) in men and 3.1% (95%CI: 2.9%-3.3%) in women. The optimism-corrected performance of the model was c = 0.774 in men and c = 0.798 in women. The models showed good calibration in both sexes, with a predicted-to-observed ratio of 1.07 in men and 1.09 in women. The sensitivity was 0.76 in men and 0.66 in women. The net benefit fraction was higher in men compared to women (0.46 vs. 0.35). CONCLUSION: A low-cost model can discriminate well between low- and high-risk individuals, and can be used for screening in low-middle income countries.

Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK).

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. METHODS: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 May 2020 to 5 February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted ORs (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and odds of COVID-19. RESULTS: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15 227 participants (2.9%). Increased odds of developing COVID-19 were independently associated with Asian/Asian British versus white ethnicity (aOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.91), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11 to 1.43), any versus no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.31, 1.06 to 1.62), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.02 to 1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care versus no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12 to 1.98) and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.50 (1.19 to 1.89) for BMI 25.0-30.0 kg/m2 and 1.39 (1.06 to 1.84) for BMI >30.0 kg/m2 versus BMI <25.0 kg/m2). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased odds (aOR 0.75, 0.59 to 0.97). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet or micronutrient supplement use. CONCLUSIONS: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased odds of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased odds. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04330599).