Drivers of spatio-temporal population dynamics of game species in a mountain landscape.

Since the end of the nineteenth century, socio-economic changes have greatly altered the Central European landscape and the structural and functional quality of habitats. Urban sprawl areas have appeared, a reduction of multiple forest uses has resulted in the densification of forests and agricultural land use has changed fundamentally through specialisation and intensification. Many of these changes affect biodiversity. To determine the important drivers of spatio-temporal dynamics of the population of 28 game species, we first considered a total of 130 potential explanatory variables. Second, we aggregated the main drivers of single-species models for habitat guilds. Third, we evaluated the results to aid in the development and implementation of mitigation measures for different ecoregions. We used harvest data as a surrogate for population density from 1875 to 2014 in South Tyrol, Italy. In generalised linear models, we used environmental characteristics such as climate, landscape diversity and structures, land cover, hunting, wildlife diseases, competition and predation, land-use type, and intensity (including pesticide use) as explanatory variables to predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of game species. The important drivers are land use and management changes (intensification in the agriculturally favourable areas, extensification or abandonment in the unfavourable areas) as well as associated changes in the landscape features, diversity and structure, and hunting management. Climatic variables, interspecific competition and diseases only play a subordinate role. The dynamics of the habitat guilds and their drivers provide concrete indications for measures to maintain or improve the habitat quality for the investigated species. Particularly important are transfer payments to ensure extensive agricultural use, increasingly through the takeover of personnel costs, but also for the installation of an independent body that monitors and evaluates the effectiveness of the measures.

Long-term game species dynamic as indicator for changing landscape quality.

Urban sprawl, increased traffic and modern forestry, as well as the globalisation of agriculture, have increasingly been affecting the landscape and its quality as habitat for species especially since the middle of the last century. Still, there are hardly any methods nor indicators which can measure the quality of the landscape for species over a long period. In this study, we investigated the influence of landscape structure and landscape quality on harvest data of 28 game species in South Tyrol, Italy, over the last 150 years. The harvest data were used to assess the population dynamics of individual species and habitat guilds since 1870. As a first result, we could show, on the examples of six species, that count population data were highly correlated with harvest data and are therefore well suited to estimate their population size. Second, the populations of ungulates consistently increased during the study period. The numbers of mesocarnivores as well as smaller forest and alpine game species increased strongly until the 1970s/80s of the last century, followed by a decline. The populations of farmland species and some synanthropic species have decreased substantially, and some species have even disappeared completely. Based on these results, we were able to show, in a third step, that the landscape quality for game species in South Tyrol has developed differently: In particular, the agriculturally used habitats have lost quality, whereas forests and alpine regions have initially gained quality due to the extensification of use; during the last five decades, the quality decreases again, at least for small game species. Our results thus provide concrete implications for the active improvement of the landscape quality for farmland and forest species, as well as indications for future priorities in funding support of alpine pasture management.

Distribution of soil macrofauna across different habitats in the Eastern European Alps.

Macro-invertebrates are important components of soil ecosystems as they provide a wide range of crucial functions and ecosystem services. Knowledge on their distribution in mountain soils is scarce despite the importance of such soils for people living in mountain regions as well as downstream. The present dataset contains records on soil macro-invertebrates belonging to nineteen taxa listed at class or order level and earthworms listed at species level from 22 different habitat types characteristic for the Eastern European Alps. Data were collected over a period of more than 30 years (1987-2020) following a standard protocol. We compiled 1572 single records from 241 unique sampling sites, providing default site parameters (GPS coordinates, habitat type, type of management, elevation, exposition, inclination, bedrock, soil type following WRB classification). Such data are important to analyse global trends and macroecological patterns and to set a basis for tracking long-term changes in macrofauna composition. In addition, this dataset will add to the still sparse knowledge on the occurrence and abundance of alpine soil fauna taxa.

Changes in perspective needed to forge 'no-regret' forest-based climate change mitigation strategies.

Forest-based mitigation strategies will play a pivotal role in achieving the rapid and deep net-emission reductions required to prevent catastrophic climate change. However, large disagreement prevails on how to forge forest-based mitigation strategies, in particular in regions where forests are currently growing in area and carbon density. Two opposing viewpoints prevail in the current discourse: (1) A widespread viewpoint, specifically in countries in the Global North, favours enhanced wood use, including bioenergy, for substitution of emissions-intensive products and processes. (2) Others instead focus on the biophysical, resource-efficiency and time-response advantages of forest conservation and restoration for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, whilst often not explicitly specifying how much wood extraction can still safeguard these ecological benefits. We here argue for a new perspective in sustainable forest research that aims at forging "no-regret" forest-based climate change mitigation strategies. Based on the consideration of forest growth dynamics and the opportunity carbon cost associated with wood use, we suggest that, instead of taking (hypothetical) wood-for-fossil substitution as starting point in assessments of carbon implications of wood products and services, analyses should take the potential and desired carbon sequestration of forests as starting point and quantify sustainable yield potentials compatible with those carbon sequestration potentials. Such an approach explicitly addresses the possible benefits provided by forests as carbon sinks, brings research on the permanence and vulnerability of C-stocks in forests, of substitution effects, as well as explorations of demand-side strategies to the forefront of research and, in particular, aligns better with the urgency to find viable climate solutions.

Rising slopes-Bibliometrics of mountain research 1900-2019.

Mountain areas provide essential resources for a significant proportion of the Earth's population. This study presents the development of mountain research between 1900 and 2019 based on peer-reviewed articles in English listed in Web of ScienceTM (WOS). We analyzed the number of publications over time, journals and scientific categories, frequent topics, and geographical distributions based on 40 mountain ranges and authors' countries as well as institutional contributions. From 1900-2019, 195k ±10% mountain research papers were published; over 50% from 2010-2019. While papers were published in more than 1000 different journals, indicating a wide range of disciplines engaged in mountain research, 94% of the papers were assigned to "Science & Technology", only <5% to "Social Sciences" and "Arts & Humanities". The most papers were written by researchers in the USA, followed by China. The number of papers per area or capita showed high variability across the investigated mountain ranges. Thus, geographically and disciplinarily more balanced research activities and better accessibility of knowledge about mountain regions are recommended.

The contribution of landscape features, climate and topography in shaping taxonomical and functional diversity of avian communities in a heterogeneous Alpine region.

Understanding the effects of landscape composition and configuration, climate, and topography on bird diversity is necessary to identify distribution drivers, potential impacts of land use changes, and future conservation strategies. We surveyed bird communities in a study area located in the Central Alps (Autonomous Province of South Tyrol, northeast Italy), by means of point counts and investigated taxonomic and functional diversity at two spatial scales along gradients of land use/land cover (LULC) intensity and elevation. We also explored how environmental variables influence bird traits and red-list categories. Models combining drivers of different types were highly supported, pointing towards synergetic effects of different types of environmental variables on bird communities. The model containing only LULC compositional variables was the most supported one among the single-group models: LULC composition plays a crucial role in shaping local biodiversity and hence bird communities, even across broad landscape gradients. Particularly relevant were wetlands, open habitats, agricultural mosaics made up of small habitat patches and settlements, ecotonal and structural elements in agricultural settings, and continuous forests. To conserve bird diversity in the Alps, planning and management practices promoting and maintaining small fields, structural elements, and a mosaic of different LULC types should be supported, while preserving continuous forests at the same time. Additionally, pastures, extensively used meadows, and wetlands are key to conservation. These strategies might mitigate the impacts of global change on bird diversity in the Alps and in other European mountain areas.

Effects of land use and climate on carbon and nitrogen pool partitioning in European mountain grasslands.

European mountain grasslands are increasingly affected by land-use changes and climate, which have been suggested to exert important controls on grassland carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools. However, so far there has been no synthetic study on whether and how land-use changes and climate interactively affect the partitioning of these pools amongst the different grassland compartments. We analyzed the partitioning of C and N pools of 36 European mountain grasslands differing in land-use and climate with respect to above- and belowground phytomass, litter and topsoil (top 23 cm). We found that a reduction of management intensity and the abandonment of hay meadows and pastures increased above-ground phytomass, root mass and litter as well as their respective C and N pools, concurrently decreasing the fractional contribution of the topsoil to the total organic carbon pool. These changes were strongly driven by the cessation of cutting and grazing, a shift in plant functional groups and a related reduction in litter quality. Across all grasslands studied, variation in the impact of land management on the topsoil N pool and C/N-ratio were mainly explained by soil clay content combined with pH. Across the grasslands, below-ground phytomass as well as phytomass- and litter C concentrations were inversely related to the mean annual temperature; furthermore, C/N-ratios of phytomass and litter increased with decreasing mean annual precipitation. Within the topsoil compartment, C concentrations decreased from colder to warmer sites, and increased with increasing precipitation. Climate generally influenced effects of land use on C and N pools mainly through mean annual temperature and less through mean annual precipitation. We conclude that site-specific conditions need to be considered for understanding the effects of land use and of current and future climate changes on grassland C and N pools.

Evidence for the importance of land use, site characteristics and vegetation composition for rooting in European Alps.

Plant rooting strongly affects most hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological processes in terrestrial ecosystems, as it presents the main pathway for carbon, water and nutrient transfer from soil to the atmosphere and is a key factor in stabilizing the soil layer. Few studies have actually investigated the link between phytosociological and structural vegetation composition and diversity in soil rooting parameters. Our study provides a comprehensive evaluation of plant cover and diversity effects on rooting parameters dependent on different land-use types along a north-south transect in the Eastern Alps. We conducted field studies of root biomass, rooting density and rooting depth for the six main land-use types: intensively and lightly used hay meadows, pastures, arable land, agriculturally unused grasslands and forests. The variation in rooting parameters was explained by different aspects of species and functional richness, species and functional composition, functional traits, abundance of key species and site variables depending on the land-use types. Our results showed that different characteristics of biodiversity explained the variance in root parameters (mass, density and depth) to a high degree (determination coefficient R2 values varied between 0.621 and 0.891). All rooting parameters increased with increasing plant species richness, as well as with a higher diversity of plant functional traits. The inclusion of site parameters significantly increased the explained variance, while we could not find evidence for key species and their abundance to provide additional explanatory power. Allowing the effects to vary depending on land-use types turned out to be a necessity supporting the importance of considering land-use types for rooting. The findings indicate that vegetation composition has a clear relationship with rooting parameters across different habitats in the European Alps. As the effect of plant composition differs with respect to the land-use type, rooting can be monitored by land management to achieve the desired benefits. For example, intensified rooting through extensive management decreases erosion risk and increases carbon uptake.

Agent-based modelling of water balance in a social-ecological system: A multidisciplinary approach for mountain catchments.

The European Alps are known as the 'water towers of Europe'. However, climatic and socioeconomic changes influence both water supply and demand, increasing the need to manage this limited and valuable resource properly to avoid user conflicts and water scarcity. Two major challenges emerge when assessing water scarcity in the Alps: Firstly, mountainous regions are very heterogeneous regarding water availability and demand over space and time, and therefore water scarcity assessments need to be done at low temporal and spatial scales. Secondly, the tight coupling of the natural and the social sphere necessitate an integrative approach considering dynamics and interactions of the social-ecological system. Hence, we applied the agent-based water supply and demand model Aqua.MORE, which is designed for catchment scale and sub-daily temporal resolution, to a case study site in the Italian Alps. In the model, the water supply, the local water managers and water users are represented by interacting model agents. We estimated the water supply by refining the annual runoff data provided by the InVEST water yield model for within-year variations. Local stakeholders contributed to the development of quantitative and spatially-explicit scenarios for land use and tourism evolution. To evaluate water supply and demand dynamics, we assessed six scenarios for the period of 2015 to 2050: three different socio-economic policy pathways, both alone and in combination with a climate change scenario. In all six scenarios, the water demand:supply (D:S) ratio continuously rises from 2015 to 2050.The highest D:S ratio values are prognosed at the beginning of the irrigation period in May. In all scenarios considering climatic changes, the D:S ratio exceeds 20% for several days, indicating potential water scarcity. The simulation results reinforce the importance of analysing water balances at a high temporal resolution and can support management processes and stakeholder dialogues for sustainable watershed management.

Assessing conflicts between winter recreational activities and grouse species.

Mountain environments provide habitats for many wild animal species and are of great importance to recreational activities. In the European Alps, winter recreation activities such as ski mountaineering are becoming increasingly popular, which may lead more often to disturbance of Alpine wildlife. Assessment of ski mountaineering activities and related potential conflict zones is needed to implement protection measures and to guide skiers towards nature-friendly behaviour in sensitive locations. Yet basic data regarding frequencies of ski mountaineers is still missing at regional scale. For the Region of the Tyrol (Austria), this study therefore aimed to advance methods of assessing ski mountaineering activities for use in the spatial analysis of conflict zones with grouse species. We overlaid high-resolution information on the spatial and temporal distribution of ski mountaineers from crowd-sourced data (Strava) with distribution maps of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix L.). Our results indicate that ski mountaineering activities affected 10.3% of the distribution area of black grouse and 8.6% of the distribution area of capercaillie. The raw crowd-sourced data was pre-processed with local information on skiing resorts, cross-country trails and infrastructure and use of the tested method was validated, with good spatial resolution (0.076 km2 per minimum mapping unit) for large study areas. We identified four intensity classes of ski mountaineering activity, which were randomly distributed in the study area. The spatial distribution of ski mountaineering activities showed an accumulation of activities in the south of the Inn valley. Our results could provide a valuable basis for developing mitigation measures and strategies in order to reduce the disturbance of Alpine wildlife by ski mountaineering.

Species richness and beta diversity patterns of multiple taxa along an elevational gradient in pastured grasslands in the European Alps.

To understand how diversity is distributed in space is a fundamental aim for optimizing future species and community conservation. We examined in parallel species richness and beta diversity components of nine taxonomic groups along a finite space, represented by pastured grasslands along an elevational gradient. Beta diversity, which is assumed to bridge local alpha diversity to regional gamma diversity was partitioned into the two components turnover and nestedness and analyzed at two levels: from the lowest elevation to all other elevations, and between neighboring elevations. Species richness of vascular plants, butterflies, beetles, spiders and earthworms showed a hump-shaped relationship with increasing elevation, while it decreased linearly for grasshoppers and ants, but increased for lichens and bryophytes. For most of the groups, turnover increased with increasing elevational distance along the gradient while nestedness decreased. With regard to step-wise beta diversity, rates of turnover or nestedness did not change notably between neighboring steps for the majority of groups. Our results support the assumption that species communities occupying the same habitat significantly change along elevation, however transition seems to happen continuously and is not detectable between neighboring steps. Our findings, rather than delineating levels of major diversity losses, indicate that conservation actions targeting at a preventive protection for species and their environment in mountainous regions require the consideration of entire spatial settings.

Research questions to facilitate the future development of European long-term ecosystem research infrastructures: A horizon scanning exercise.

Distributed environmental research infrastructures are important to support assessments of the effects of global change on landscapes, ecosystems and society. These infrastructures need to provide continuity to address long-term change, yet be flexible enough to respond to rapid societal and technological developments that modify research priorities. We used a horizon scanning exercise to identify and prioritize emerging research questions for the future development of ecosystem and socio-ecological research infrastructures in Europe. Twenty research questions covered topics related to (i) ecosystem structures and processes, (ii) the impacts of anthropogenic drivers on ecosystems, (iii) ecosystem services and socio-ecological systems and (iv), methods and research infrastructures. Several key priorities for the development of research infrastructures emerged. Addressing complex environmental issues requires the adoption of a whole-system approach, achieved through integration of biotic, abiotic and socio-economic measurements. Interoperability among different research infrastructures needs to be improved by developing standard measurements, harmonizing methods, and establishing capacities and tools for data integration, processing, storage and analysis. Future research infrastructures should support a range of methodological approaches including observation, experiments and modelling. They should also have flexibility to respond to new requirements, for example by adjusting the spatio-temporal design of measurements. When new methods are introduced, compatibility with important long-term data series must be ensured. Finally, indicators, tools, and transdisciplinary approaches to identify, quantify and value ecosystem services across spatial scales and domains need to be advanced.

Plant functional assemblages as indicators of the resilience of grassland ecosystem service provision.

Ecosystems provide a variety of ecosystem services (ES), which act as key linkages between social and ecological systems. ES respond spatially and temporally to abiotic and biotic variation, and to management. Thus, resistant and resilient ES provision is expected to remain within a stable range when facing disturbances. In this study, generic indicators to evaluate resistance, potential resilience and capacity for transformation of ES provision are developed and their relevance demonstrated for a mountain grassland system. Indicators are based on plant trait composition (i.e. functional composition) and abiotic parameters determining ES provision at community, meta-community and landscape scales. First the resistance of an ES is indicated by its normal operating range characterized by observed values under current conditions. Second its resilience is assessed by its potential operating range - under hypotheses of reassembly from the community's species pool. Third its transformation potential is assessed for reassembly at meta-community and landscape scales. Using a state-and-transition model, possible management-related transitions between mountain grassland states were identified, and indicators calculated for two provisioning and two regulating ES. Overall, resilience properties varied across individual ES, supporting a focus on resilience of specific ES. The resilience potential of the two provisioning services was greater than for the two regulating services, both being linked to functional complementarity within communities. We also found high transformation potential reflecting functional redundancy among communities within each meta-community, and across meta-communities in the landscape. Presented indicators are promising for the projection of future ES provision and the identification of management options under environmental change.

Historical trajectories in land use pattern and grassland ecosystem services in two European alpine landscapes.

Land use and spatial patterns which reflect social-ecological legacies control ecosystem service (ES) supply. Yet, temporal changes in ES bundles associated with land use change are little studied. We developed original metrics to quantify synchronous historical variations in spatial patterns of land use and ES supply capacity, and demonstrated their use for two mountain grassland landscapes. Consistent with other European mountains, land use dynamics from the nineteenth century until the mid-twentieth century resulted in increased landscape heterogeneity, followed by homogenisation. In the persistently grassy landscape of Lautaret in France, landscape multifunctionality-the provision of multiple ES-coincided with greatest landscape heterogeneity and within-patch diversity in ecosystem services in the 1950-1970s. In the more complex Austrian landscape, where since the nineteenth century intensive production has concentrated in the valley and steep slopes have been abandoned, grassland landscape-level multifunctionality and spatial heterogeneity across grasslands have decreased. Increasing spatial heterogeneity across grasslands until the 1970s was paralleled at both sites by increasing fine-grained spatial variability for individual ES, but subsequent landscape simplification has promoted coarse-grained ES patterns This novel analysis of landscape-scale turnover highlighted how spatial patterns for individual ES scale to multiple grassland ES, depending on the nature of land use spatial variability. Under current socio-economic trends, sustaining or re-establishing fine-grained landscapes is often not feasible, thus future landscape planning and policies might focus on managing landscape and regional-scale multifunctionality. Also, the trends towards decreasing cultural ES and increasing regulating ES suggest a contradiction with current social demand and regional policies.

Future impacts of changing land-use and climate on ecosystem services of mountain grassland and their resilience.

Although the ecosystem services provided by mountain grasslands have been demonstrated to be highly vulnerable to environmental and management changes in the past, it remains unclear how they will be affected in the face of a combination of further land-use/cover changes and accelerating climate change. Moreover, the resilience of ecosystem services has not been sufficiently analysed under future scenarios. This study aimed to assess future impacts on multiple mountain grassland ecosystem services and their resilience. For a study area in the Central Alps (Stubai Valley, Austria), six ecosystem services were quantified using plant trait-based models for current and future conditions (in 2050 and 2100) considering three socio-economic scenarios. Under all scenarios, the greatest changes in ecosystem services were related to the natural reforestation of abandoned grassland, causing a shift from grassland to forest services. Although the high resilience potential of most ecosystem services will be maintained in the future, climate change seems to have negative impacts, especially on the resilience of forage production. Thus, decision makers and farmers will be faced with the higher vulnerability of ecosystem services of mountain grassland. Future policies should consider both socio-economic and environmental dynamics to manage valuable ecosystem services.

A transnational perspective of global and regional ecosystem service flows from and to mountain regions.

The spatial relationships of ecosystem services are complex and poorly understood due to spatial mismatches between areas of provision and the areas that benefit. In this study, we assess the spatial flows of six key ecosystem services from and to mountain regions at the regional and global level. We identify major directions of spatial flow and illustrate different types and transfer mechanisms with detailed examples focusing on the European Alps and surrounding lowlands. Our results demonstrate that the spatial flows of ecosystem services range from local to global interactions and extend far beyond the regional level for most of the ecosystem services assessed. Transportation processes encompass passive biophysical processes and the active transportation of goods, distribution of information and traveling of people. Decision and policy-making can use this enhanced understanding to influence ecosystem service transfer and consequently manage natural resources in a sustainable way.

Stream benthic macroinvertebrates abundances over a 6-year monitoring period of an Italian glacier-fed stream.

BACKGROUND: Aquatic macroinvertebrates are widely used as bioindicators for water quality assessments involving different kinds of disruptive factors, such as hydrological regime variations or pollutant spills. Recently, they demonstrated to be effective in monitoring effects of climate change in alpine stream and rivers. Indeed, since the distribution of macroinvertebrates in glacier-fed streams has been succesfully investigated and described by several authors, the discrepancy in presence/absence and quantity of specific taxa from the established models may represent an early warning of the effects of climatic changes occurring in alpine riverine ecosystems. NEW INFORMATION: Together with the present paper, we provide a dataset covering a period of 6 years (2010-2015) sampling of aquatic macroinvertebrates along a longitudinal transect of a glacier-fed stream located in the Italian Alps, inside the International Long Term Ecological Research (ILTER) macrosite of Matsch|Mazia (IT-25). Data were collected during the glacial melt period (April - September), with monthly resolution. Owing to the unique temporal resolution of the dataset, we aim to produce a reliable tool (i.e. reference point) for future ecological assessment on the same stream, but also to similar streams worldwide.

Integrating supply, flow and demand to enhance the understanding of interactions among multiple ecosystem services.

A comprehensive understanding of the relationships among ecosystem services (ES) is important for landscape management, decision-making and policy development, but interactions among multiple ES remain under-researched. In particular, earlier studies often did not clearly distinguish between supply, flow and demand. Furthermore, the underlying mechanisms in complex socio-ecological systems remain less examined. In this study, we therefore aimed to assess interactions among eight key ES, adopting a multistep approach. For all ES, we mapped ES supply, flow and demand at the municipality level in the Alpine Space area. We applied correlation analysis and cluster analysis in order to analyse the linkages between ES and to identify bundles of ES. We used random forest analysis to explain the distribution of the ES bundles and to identify important drivers based on socio-ecological variables (e.g. land use/cover, climate, topography and population density). Our results demonstrate that trade-offs and synergies varied greatly for supply, flow and demand. We identified five ES bundles, distinguishing hotspots of ES supply and demand. Twelve socio-ecological variables correctly predicted the membership of 81% of the municipalities to the ES bundles. Our results suggest that a limited number of socio-ecological variables can explain the majority of the distribution of ES bundles in the landscape. Considering the spatial relationships between mountain regions and their surrounding lowlands, regional and transnational governance frameworks need to connect areas of multiple ES supply to areas of ES demand, and should account for the different levels and types of ES relationships.

What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.

Multiscale socio-ecological networks in the age of information.

Interactions between people and ecological systems, through leisure or tourism activities, form a complex socio-ecological spatial network. The analysis of the benefits people derive from their interactions with nature-also referred to as cultural ecosystem services (CES)-enables a better understanding of these socio-ecological systems. In the age of information, the increasing availability of large social media databases enables a better understanding of complex socio-ecological interactions at an unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution. Within this context, we model and analyze these interactions based on information extracted from geotagged photographs embedded into a multiscale socio-ecological network. We apply this approach to 16 case study sites in Europe using a social media database (Flickr) containing more than 150,000 validated and classified photographs. After evaluating the representativeness of the network, we investigate the impact of visitors' origin on the distribution of socio-ecological interactions at different scales. First at a global scale, we develop a spatial measure of attractiveness and use this to identify four groups of sites. Then, at a local scale, we explore how the distance traveled by the users to reach a site affects the way they interact with this site in space and time. The approach developed here, integrating social media data into a network-based framework, offers a new way of visualizing and modeling interactions between humans and landscapes. Results provide valuable insights for understanding relationships between social demands for CES and the places of their realization, thus allowing for the development of more efficient conservation and planning strategies.