Diagnostics to support elimination of lymphatic filariasis-Development of two target product profiles.

As lymphatic filariasis (LF) programs move closer to established targets for validation elimination of LF as a public health problem, diagnostic tools capable of supporting the needs of the programs are critical for success. Known limitations of existing diagnostic tools make it challenging to have confidence that program endpoints have been achieved. In 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) established a Diagnostic Technical Advisory Group (DTAG) for Neglected Tropical Diseases tasked with prioritizing diagnostic needs including defining use-cases and target product profiles (TPPs) for needed tools. Subsequently, disease-specific DTAG subgroups, including one focused on LF, were established to develop TPPs and use-case analyses to be used by product developers. Here, we describe the development of two priority TPPs for LF diagnostics needed for making decisions for stopping mass drug administration (MDA) of a triple drug regimen and surveillance. Utilizing the WHO core TPP development process as the framework, the LF subgroup convened to discuss and determine attributes required for each use case. TPPs considered the following parameters: product use, design, performance, product configuration and cost, and access and equity. Version 1.0 TPPs for two use cases were published by WHO on 12 March 2021 within the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development. A common TPP characteristic that emerged in both use cases was the need to identify new biomarkers that would allow for greater precision in program delivery. As LF diagnostic tests are rarely used for individual clinical diagnosis, it became apparent that reliance on population-based surveys for decision making requires consideration of test performance in the context of such surveys. In low prevalence settings, the number of false positive test results may lead to unnecessary continuation or resumption of MDA, thus wasting valuable resources and time. Therefore, highly specific diagnostic tools are paramount when used to measure low thresholds. The TPP process brought to the forefront the importance of linking use case, program platform and diagnostic performance characteristics when defining required criteria for diagnostic tools.

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

Younger ages at risk of Covid-19 mortality in communities of color.

More than 85% of Covid-19 mortality in high income countries is among people 65 years of age or older. Recent disaggregated data from the UK and US show that minority communities have increased mortality among younger age groups and in South Africa initial data suggest that the majority of deaths from Covid-19 are under 65 years of age. These observations suggest significant potential for increased Covid-19 mortality among younger populations in Africa and South Asia and may impact age-based selection of high-risk groups eligible for a future vaccine.

HIV Incidence and Risk Behaviours of People Who Inject Drugs in Bangkok, 1995-2012.

BACKGROUND: Three consecutive prospective studies were conducted among people who inject drugs (PWID) from May 1995 through June 2012 in Bangkok, Thailand. We examined data from these studies to evaluate HIV incidence and explore trends in risk behaviours. METHODS: We used data from a 1995-1998 cohort study, a 1999-2004 HIV vaccine trial, and a 2005-2012 HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) study to examine per-quarter trends in HIV incidence, using a restricted cubic spline function for time in a Poisson regression. We also examined temporal trends in HIV-associated risk behaviours. FINDINGS: HIV incidence declined from 5.7 per 100 person-years during the cohort study, to 2.7 per 100 person-years in the vaccine trial, to 0.7 per 100 person-years among PrEP study placebo recipients. Incidence peaked at 12.1 per 100 person-years in 1996 and declined to < 1 per 100 person-years during 2005-2012. Reports of injecting drugs and sharing needles also declined from the cohort study to the PrEP study (p < 0.0001). Heroin was the most common drug injected during the cohort study and the vaccine trial, but stimulants (e.g., methamphetamine) and sedatives (e.g., midazolam) were injected more often during the PrEP study. INTERPRETATION: HIV incidence among PWID declined during 2005-2012. Several factors likely contributed to the decline, including decreases in the frequency of injecting and sharing, improved access to HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy, and the use of PrEP. Expanding access to effective HIV prevention tools can hasten control of the HIV epidemic among PWID. FUNDING: The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention.

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Its Partners' Contributions to Global Health Security.

To achieve compliance with the revised World Health Organization International Health Regulations (IHR 2005), countries must be able to rapidly prevent, detect, and respond to public health threats. Most nations, however, remain unprepared to manage and control complex health emergencies, whether due to natural disasters, emerging infectious disease outbreaks, or the inadvertent or intentional release of highly pathogenic organisms. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) works with countries and partners to build and strengthen global health security preparedness so they can quickly respond to public health crises. This report highlights selected CDC global health protection platform accomplishments that help mitigate global health threats and build core, cross-cutting capacity to identify and contain disease outbreaks at their source. CDC contributions support country efforts to achieve IHR 2005 compliance, contribute to the international framework for countering infectious disease crises, and enhance health security for Americans and populations around the world.

Contributions of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Implementing the Global Health Security Agenda in 17 Partner Countries.

The Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA), a partnership of nations, international organizations, and civil society, was launched in 2014 with a mission to build countries' capacities to respond to infectious disease threats and to foster global compliance with the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005). The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assists partner nations to improve IHR 2005 capacities and achieve GHSA targets. To assess progress through these CDC-supported efforts, we analyzed country activity reports dating from April 2015 through March 2017. Our analysis shows that CDC helped 17 Phase I countries achieve 675 major GHSA accomplishments, particularly in the cross-cutting areas of public health surveillance, laboratory systems, workforce development, and emergency response management. CDC's engagement has been critical to these accomplishments, but sustained support is needed until countries attain IHR 2005 capacities, thereby fostering national and regional health protection and ensuring a world safer and more secure from global health threats.

Joint External Evaluation-Development and Scale-Up of Global Multisectoral Health Capacity Evaluation Process.

The Joint External Evaluation (JEE), a consolidation of the World Health Organization (WHO) International Health Regulations 2005 (IHR 2005) Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and the Global Health Security Agenda country assessment tool, is an objective, voluntary, independent peer-to-peer multisectoral assessment of a country's health security preparedness and response capacity across 19 IHR technical areas. WHO approved the standardized JEE tool in February 2016. The JEE process is wholly transparent; countries request a JEE and are encouraged to make its findings public. Donors (e.g., member states, public and private partners, and other public health institutions) can support countries in addressing identified JEE gaps, and implementing country-led national action plans for health security. Through July 2017, 52 JEEs were completed, and 25 more countries were scheduled across WHO's 6 regions. JEEs facilitate progress toward IHR 2005 implementation, thereby building trust and mutual accountability among countries to detect and respond to public health threats.

The effect of oral preexposure prophylaxis on the progression of HIV-1 seroconversion.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) alters timing and patterns of seroconversion when PrEP use continues after HIV-1 infection. DESIGN: Retrospective testing of the timing of Fiebig stage HIV-1 seroconversion in the Partners PrEP Study, a randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial of PrEP conducted in Kenya and Uganda. METHODS: Specimens from 138 seroconverters were collected every 3 months and when HIV-1 infection was suspected based on monthly rapid HIV-1 tests. Progression of seroconversion was compared between randomized groups (PrEP versus placebo) and per-protocol groups (placebo versus PrEP participants with detectable tenofovir during the seroconversion period) using laboratory assessment of Fiebig stage. Delay in site-detection of seroconversion and association with PrEP drug-regimen resistant virus were assessed using logistic regression. Analysis of time to each Fiebig stage used maximum likelihood estimation with a parametric model to accommodate the varying lengths of HIV-infection intervals. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in delayed site detection of infection associated with PrEP (odds ratio = 3.49, P = 0.044). Delay in detection was not associated with increased risk of resistance in the PrEP arm (odds ratio = 0.93, P = 0.95). Estimated time to each Fiebig stage was elongated in seroconverters with evidence of ongoing PrEP use, significantly for only Stage 5 (28 versus 17 days, P = 0.05). Adjusted for Fiebig stage, viral RNA was ∼2/3 log lower in those assigned to PrEP compared with placebo; no differences were found in Architect signal to cut-off at any stage. CONCLUSION: Ongoing PrEP use in seroconverters may delay detection of infection and elongate seroconversion, although the delay does not increase risk of resistance.

Burden and characteristics of HIV infection among female sex workers in Kampala, Uganda - a respondent-driven sampling survey.

BACKGROUND: Sex workers in Uganda are at significant risk for HIV infection. We characterized the HIV epidemic among Kampala female sex workers (FSW). METHODS: We used respondent-driven sampling to sample FSW aged 15+ years who reported having sold sex to men in the preceding 30 days; collected data through audio-computer assisted self-interviews, and tested blood, vaginal and rectal swabs for HIV, syphilis, neisseria gonorrhea, chlamydia trachomatis, and trichomonas vaginalis. RESULTS: A total of 942 FSW were enrolled from June 2008 through April 2009. The overall estimated HIV prevalence was 33% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 30%-37%) and among FSW 25 years or older was 44%. HIV infection is associated with low levels of schooling, having no other work, never having tested for HIV, self-reported genital ulcers or sores, and testing positive for neisseria gonorrhea or any sexually transmitted infections (STI). Two thirds (65%) of commercial sex acts reportedly were protected by condoms; one in five (19%) FSW reported having had anal sex. Gender-based violence was frequent; 34% reported having been raped and 24% reported having been beaten by clients in the preceding 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: One in three FSW in Kampala is HIV-infected, suggesting a severe HIV epidemic in this population. Intensified interventions are warranted to increase condom use, HIV testing, STI screening, as well as antiretroviral treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis along with measures to overcome gender-based violence.

Quantifying Heterogeneous Malaria Exposure and Clinical Protection in a Cohort of Ugandan Children.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum malaria remains a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. There are important gaps in our understanding of the factors driving the development of antimalaria immunity as a function of age and exposure. METHODS: We used data from a cohort of 93 children participating in a clinical trial in Tororo, Uganda, an area of very high exposure to P. falciparum We jointly quantified individual heterogeneity in the risk of infection and the development of immunity against infection and clinical disease. RESULTS: Results showed significant heterogeneity in the hazard of infection and independent effects of age and cumulative number of infections on the risk of infection and disease. The risk of developing clinical malaria upon infection decreased on average by 6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0%-12%) for each additional year of age and by 2% (95% CI, 1%-3%) for each additional prior infection. Children randomly assigned to receive dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for treatment appeared to develop immunity more slowly than those receiving artemether-lumefantrine. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneity in P. falciparum exposure and immunity can be independently evaluated using detailed longitudinal studies. Improved understanding of the factors driving immunity will provide key information to anticipate the impact of malaria-control interventions and to understand the mechanisms of clinical immunity.

Population Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Lumefantrine in Young Ugandan Children Treated With Artemether-Lumefantrine for Uncomplicated Malaria.

BACKGROUND: The pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of lumefantrine, a component of the most widely used treatment for malaria, artemether-lumefantrine, has not been adequately characterized in young children. METHODS: Capillary whole-blood lumefantrine concentration and treatment outcomes were determined in 105 Ugandan children, ages 6 months to 2 years, who were treated for 249 episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria with artemether-lumefantrine. RESULTS: Population pharmacokinetics for lumefantrine used a 2-compartment open model with first-order absorption. Age had a significant positive correlation with bioavailability in a model that included allometric scaling. Children not receiving trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole with capillary whole blood concentrations <200 ng/mL had a 3-fold higher hazard of 28-day recurrent parasitemia, compared with those with concentrations >200 ng/mL (P = .0007). However, for children receiving trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, the risk of recurrent parasitemia did not differ significantly on the basis of this threshold. Day 3 concentrations were a stronger predictor of 28-day recurrence than day 7 concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that age, in addition to weight, is a determinant of lumefantrine exposure, and in the absence of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, lumefantrine exposure is a determinant of recurrent parasitemia. Exposure levels in children aged 6 months to 2 years was generally lower than levels published for older children and adults. Further refinement of artemether-lumefantrine dosing to improve exposure in infants and very young children may be warranted.

Overview, Control Strategies, and Lessons Learned in the CDC Response to the 2014-2016 Ebola Epidemic.

During 2014-2016, CDC, working with U.S. and international partners, mounted a concerted response to end the unprecedented epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa. CDC's response, which was the largest in the agency's history, was directed simultaneously at controlling the epidemic in West Africa and strengthening preparedness for Ebola in the United States. Although experience in responding to approximately 20 Ebola outbreaks since 1976 had provided CDC and other international responders an understanding of the disease and how to stop its spread, the epidemic in West Africa presented new and formidable challenges. The initial response was slow and complicated for several reasons, including wide geographic spread of cases, poor public health and societal infrastructure, sociodemographic factors, local unfamiliarity with Ebola, and distrust of government and health care workers. In the United States, widespread public alarm erupted after Ebola cases were diagnosed in Dallas, Texas, and New York City, New York. CDC, in collaboration with its U.S. and international counterparts, applied proven public health strategies as well as innovative new approaches to help control the Ebola epidemic in West Africa and strengthen public health readiness in the United States. Lessons learned include the recognition that West African and other countries need effective systems to detect and stop infectious disease threats, the need for stronger international surge capacity for times when countries are overwhelmed by an outbreak, and the importance of improving infection prevention and control in health care settings. The activities summarized in this report would not have been possible without collaboration with many U.S. and international partners (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/partners.html).

Intimate Partner Violence and Adherence to HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) in African Women in HIV Serodiscordant Relationships: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is associated with higher HIV incidence, reduced condom use, and poor adherence to antiretroviral therapy and other medications. IPV may also affect adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). METHODS: We analyzed data from 1785 HIV-uninfected women enrolled in a clinical trial of PrEP among African HIV serodiscordant couples. Experience of verbal, physical, or economic IPV was assessed at monthly visits by face-to-face interviews. Low PrEP adherence was defined as clinic-based pill count coverage <80% or plasma tenofovir levels <40 ng/mL. The association between IPV and low adherence was analyzed using generalized estimating equations, adjusting for potential confounders. In-depth interview transcripts were examined to explain how IPV could impact adherence. RESULTS: Sixteen percent of women reported IPV during a median of 34.8 months of follow-up (interquartile range 27.0-35.0). Overall, 7% of visits had pill count coverage <80%, and 32% had plasma tenofovir <40 ng/mL. Women reporting IPV in the past 3 months had increased risk of low adherence by pill count (adjusted risk ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval: 1.17 to 1.89) and by plasma tenofovir (adjusted risk ratio 1.51, 95% confidence interval: 1.06 to 2.15). Verbal, economic, and physical IPV were all associated with low adherence. However, the impact of IPV diminished and was not statistically significant 3 months after the reported exposure. In qualitative interviews, women identified several ways in which IPV affected adherence, including stress and forgetting, leaving home without pills, and partners throwing pills away. CONCLUSIONS: Women who reported recent IPV in the Partners PrEP Study were at increased risk of low PrEP adherence. Strategies to mitigate PrEP nonadherence in the context of IPV should be evaluated.

Public Health Surveillance: At the Core of the Global Health Security Agenda.

Global health security involves developing the infrastructure and capacity to protect the health of people and societies worldwide. The acceleration of global travel and trade poses greater opportunities for infectious diseases to emerge and spread. The International Health Regulations (IHR) were adopted in 2005 with the intent of proactively developing public health systems that could react to the spread of infectious disease and provide better containment. Various challenges delayed adherence to the IHR. The Global Health Security Agenda came about as an international collaborative effort, working multilaterally among governments and across sectors, seeking to implement the IHR and develop the capacities to prevent, detect, and respond to public health emergencies of international concern. When examining the recent West African Ebola epidemic as a case study for global health security, both strengths and weaknesses in the public health response are evident. The central role of public health surveillance is a lesson reiterated by Ebola. Through further implementation of the Global Health Security Agenda, identified gaps in surveillance can be filled and global health security strengthened.

Rethinking Dosing Regimen Selection of Piperaquine for Malaria Chemoprevention: A Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: The combination of short-acting dihydroartemisinin and long-acting piperaquine (DP) is among the first-line therapies for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Population pharmacokinetic models of piperaquine (PQ) based on data from acute treatment of young children can be used to predict exposure profiles of piperaquine under different DP chemoprevention regimens. The purpose of our study was to make such predictions in young children. METHODS: Based on a prior population pharmacokinetic model of PQ in young Ugandan children, we simulated capillary plasma concentration-time profiles (including their variability) of candidate chemoprevention regimens for a reference population of 1-2 year olds weighing at least 11 kg. Candidate regimens that were tested included monthly administration of standard therapeutic doses, bimonthly dosing, and weekly dosing (with and without a loading dose). RESULTS: Once daily doses of 320 mg for three days (960 mg total) at the beginning of each month are predicted to achieve an average steady-state trough capillary piperaquine concentration of 35 ng/mL, with 60% achieving a level of 30 ng/mL or higher. In contrast, weekly dosing of 320 mg (i.e., 33% higher amount per month) is predicted to approximately double the average steady-state trough concentration, increase the percent of children predicted to achieve 30 ng/mL or higher (94%), while at the same time lowering peak concentrations. Exposure at steady-state, reached at approximately 3 months of multiple dosing, is expected to be approximately 2-fold higher than exposure following initial dosing, due to accumulation. A loading dose improves early exposure, thereby reducing the risk of breakthrough infections at the initiation of chemoprevention. CONCLUSIONS: Once weekly chemoprevention of DP predicts favourable exposures with respect to both trough and peak concentrations. These predictions need to be verified, as well as safety evaluated, in field-based clinical studies of young children. Simulations based on prior knowledge provide a systematic information-driven approach to evaluate candidate DP chemopreventive regimens for future trial designs.

Low Risk of Proximal Tubular Dysfunction Associated With Emtricitabine-Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Preexposure Prophylaxis in Men and Women.

OBJECTIVE: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with proximal tubular dysfunction (tubulopathy) when used in the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We evaluated whether TDF causes tubulopathy when used as HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and whether tubulopathy predicts clinically relevant decline (≥25%) in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). METHODS: A subgroup analysis of the Partners PrEP Study, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of daily oral TDF, alone or with emtricitabine (FTC), in HIV-uninfected African men and women (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00557245). Tubulopathy was assessed in concurrently obtained urine and serum samples at the 24-month or last on-treatment visit, predefined as ≥2 of the following: tubular proteinuria, euglycemic glycosuria, increased urinary phosphate, and uric acid excretion. RESULTS: Of 1549 persons studied (776 receiving FTC-TDF, 773 receiving placebo), 64% were male, and the median age was 37 years. Over a median 24 months of study-drug exposure, the frequency of tubulopathy was 1.7% for FTC-TDF versus 1.3% for placebo (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, .52-3.33; P = .68); Tubulopathy occurred in 2 of 52 persons (3.8%) with versus 3 of 208 (1.4%) without ≥25% eGFR decline (adjusted odds ratio, 1.39; .10-14.0; P > .99). CONCLUSIONS: Daily oral FTC-TDF PrEP was not significantly associated with tubulopathy over the course of 24 months, nor did tubulopathy predict clinically relevant eGFR decline.

B cell sub-types following acute malaria and associations with clinical immunity.

BACKGROUND: Repeated exposure to Plasmodium falciparum is associated with perturbations in B cell sub-set homeostasis, including expansion atypical memory B cells. However, B cell perturbations immediately following acute malaria infection have been poorly characterized, especially with regard to their relationship with immunity to malaria. METHODS: To better understand the kinetics of B cell sub-sets following malaria, the proportions of six B cell sub-sets were assessed at five time points following acute malaria in four to 5 years old children living in a high transmission region of Uganda. B cell sub-set kinetics were compared with measures of clinical immunity to malaria-lower parasite density at the time of malaria diagnosis and recent asymptomatic parasitaemia. RESULTS: Atypical memory B cell and transitional B cell proportions increased following malaria. In contrast, plasmablast proportions were highest at the time of malaria diagnosis and rapidly declined following treatment. Increased proportions of atypical memory B cells were associated with greater immunity to malaria, whereas increased proportions of transitional B cells were associated with evidence of less immunity to malaria. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the dynamic changes in multiple B cell sub-sets following acute, uncomplicated malaria, and how these sub-sets are associated with developing immunity to malaria.

Younger Age Predicts Failure to Achieve Viral Suppression and Virologic Rebound Among HIV-1-Infected Persons in Serodiscordant Partnerships.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) markedly reduces the risk of HIV-1 transmission in serodiscordant partnerships. We previously found that younger age and higher CD4 counts were associated with delayed initiation of ART by HIV-1-infected partners in serodiscordant partnerships. Among those initiating ART, we sought to explore whether those same factors were associated with failure to achieve viral suppression. METHODS: In a prospective study of HIV-1-infected persons who had a known heterosexual HIV-1-uninfected partner in Kenya and Uganda [Partners Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Study], we used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate correlates of viral nonsuppression (HIV-1 RNA >80 copies/ml). RESULTS: Of 1,035 HIV-1-infected participants initiating ART, 867 (84%) achieved viral suppression: 77% by 6 months and 86% by 12 months. Younger age [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.05 for every 5 years younger; p = .006], lower pretreatment CD4 count (aHR 1.26; p = .009 for ≤250 compared with >250 cells/µl), and higher pretreatment HIV-1 RNA quantity (aHR 1.21 per log10; p < .001) independently predicted failure to achieve viral suppression. Following initial viral suppression, 8.8% (76/867) experienced virologic rebound (HIV-1 RNA >200 copies/ml): 6.3% and 11.5% by 6 and 12 months after initial suppression, respectively. Age was the only factor associated with increased risk of virologic rebound (aHR 1.33 for every 5 years younger; p = .005). CONCLUSIONS: For HIV-1-infected persons in serodiscordant couples, younger age was associated with delayed ART initiation, failure to achieve viral suppression, and increased risk of virologic rebound. Motivating ART initiation and early adherence is a key to achieving and sustaining viral suppression.