Pan-cancer subclonal mutation analysis of 7,827 tumors predicts clinical outcome.

Intra-tumor heterogeneity is an important driver of tumor evolution and therapy response. Advances in precision cancer treatment will require understanding of mutation clonality and subclonal architecture. Currently the slow computational speed of subclonal reconstruction hinders large cohort studies. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed Clonal structure identification through Pairwise Penalization, or CliPP, which clusters subclonal mutations using a regularized likelihood model. CliPP reliably processed whole-genome and whole-exome sequencing data from over 12,000 tumor samples within 24 hours, thus enabling large-scale downstream association analyses between subclonal structures and clinical outcomes. Through a pan-cancer investigation of 7,827 tumors from 32 cancer types, we found that high subclonal mutational load (sML), a measure of latency time in tumor evolution, was significantly associated with better patient outcomes in 16 cancer types with low to moderate tumor mutation burden (TMB). In a cohort of prostate cancer patients participating in an immunotherapy clinical trial, high sML was indicative of favorable response to immune checkpoint blockade. This comprehensive study using CliPP underscores sML as a key feature of cancer. sML may be essential for linking mutation dynamics with immunotherapy response in the large population of non-high TMB cancers.

Crowd-sourced benchmarking of single-sample tumor subclonal reconstruction.

Subclonal reconstruction algorithms use bulk DNA sequencing data to quantify parameters of tumor evolution, allowing an assessment of how cancers initiate, progress and respond to selective pressures. We launched the ICGC-TCGA (International Cancer Genome Consortium-The Cancer Genome Atlas) DREAM Somatic Mutation Calling Tumor Heterogeneity and Evolution Challenge to benchmark existing subclonal reconstruction algorithms. This 7-year community effort used cloud computing to benchmark 31 subclonal reconstruction algorithms on 51 simulated tumors. Algorithms were scored on seven independent tasks, leading to 12,061 total runs. Algorithm choice influenced performance substantially more than tumor features but purity-adjusted read depth, copy-number state and read mappability were associated with the performance of most algorithms on most tasks. No single algorithm was a top performer for all seven tasks and existing ensemble strategies were unable to outperform the best individual methods, highlighting a key research need. All containerized methods, evaluation code and datasets are available to support further assessment of the determinants of subclonal reconstruction accuracy and development of improved methods to understand tumor evolution.

The history of chromosomal instability in genome doubled tumors.

Tumors frequently display high chromosomal instability and contain multiple copies of genomic regions. Here, we describe GRITIC, a generic method for timing genomic gains leading to complex copy number states, using single-sample bulk whole-genome sequencing data. By applying GRITIC to 6,091 tumors, we found that non-parsimonious evolution is frequent in the formation of complex copy number states in genome-doubled tumors. We measured chromosomal instability before and after genome duplication in human tumors and found that late genome doubling was followed by an increase in the rate of copy number gain. Copy number gains often accumulate as punctuated bursts, commonly after genome doubling. We infer that genome duplications typically affect the landscape of copy number losses, while only minimally impacting copy number gains. In summary, GRITIC is a novel copy number gain timing framework that permits the analysis of copy number evolution in chromosomally unstable tumors.

Genomic evolution shapes prostate cancer disease type.

The development of cancer is an evolutionary process involving the sequential acquisition of genetic alterations that disrupt normal biological processes, enabling tumor cells to rapidly proliferate and eventually invade and metastasize to other tissues. We investigated the genomic evolution of prostate cancer through the application of three separate classification methods, each designed to investigate a different aspect of tumor evolution. Integrating the results revealed the existence of two distinct types of prostate cancer that arise from divergent evolutionary trajectories, designated as the Canonical and Alternative evolutionary disease types. We therefore propose the evotype model for prostate cancer evolution wherein Alternative-evotype tumors diverge from those of the Canonical-evotype through the stochastic accumulation of genetic alterations associated with disruptions to androgen receptor DNA binding. Our model unifies many previous molecular observations, providing a powerful new framework to investigate prostate cancer disease progression.

Aneuploidy and complex genomic rearrangements in cancer evolution.

Mutational processes that alter large genomic regions occur frequently in developing tumors. They range from simple copy number gains and losses to the shattering and reassembly of entire chromosomes. These catastrophic events, such as chromothripsis, chromoplexy and the formation of extrachromosomal DNA, affect the expression of many genes and therefore have a substantial effect on the fitness of the cells in which they arise. In this review, we cover large genomic alterations, the mechanisms that cause them and their effect on tumor development and evolution.