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1.
Am J Epidemiol ; 2024 Jul 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39086096

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Yearly bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness epidemics in France often involve high morbidity and mortality, which severely impacts healthcare. Epidemics are declared by the French National Institute of Public Health based on syndromic surveillance of primary care and emergency departments (ED), using statistics-based alarms. Although the effective reproduction number (Rt) is used to monitor the dynamics of epidemics, it has never been used as an early warning tool for bronchiolitis or influenza-like illness epidemics in France.We assessed whether Rt is useful for detecting seasonal epidemics by comparing it to the tool currently used (MASS) by epidemiologists to declare epidemic phases. METHODS: We used anonymized ED syndromic data from the Île-de-France region in France from 2010 to 2022. We estimated Rt and compared the indication of accelerated transmission (Rt >1) to the MASS epidemic alarm time points. We computed the difference between those two time points, time to epidemic peak, and the daily cases documented at first indication and peak. RESULTS: Rt provided alarms for influenza-like illness and bronchiolitis epidemics that were, respectively, 6 days (IQR[4;8]) and 64 days (IQR[52;80]) - in median - earlier than the alarms provided by MASS. CONCLUSION: Rt detected earlier signals of bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness epidemics. Using this early-warning indicator in combination with others to declare an annual epidemic could provide opportunities to improve healthcare system readiness.

2.
Euro Surveill ; 29(28)2024 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38994605

ABSTRACT

BackgroundWastewater surveillance is an effective approach to monitor population health, as exemplified by its role throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.AimThis study explores the possibility of extending wastewater surveillance to the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, focusing on identifying priority pathogen targets that are relevant and feasible to monitor in wastewater for these events.MethodsA list of 60 pathogens of interest for general public health surveillance for the Games was compiled. Each pathogen was evaluated against three inclusion criteria: (A) analytical feasibility; (B) relevance, i.e. with regards to the specificities of the event and the characteristics of the pathogen; and (C) added value to inform public health decision-making. Analytical feasibility was assessed through evidence from peer-reviewed publications demonstrating the detectability of pathogens in sewage, refining the initial list to 25 pathogens. Criteria B and C were evaluated via expert opinion using the Delphi method. The panel consisting of some 30 experts proposed five additional pathogens meeting criterion A, totalling 30 pathogens assessed throughout the three-round iterative questionnaire. Pathogens failing to reach 70% group consensus threshold underwent further deliberation by a subgroup of experts.ResultsSix priority targets suitable for wastewater surveillance during the Games were successfully identified: poliovirus, influenza A virus, influenza B virus, mpox virus, SARS-CoV-2 and measles virus.ConclusionThis study introduced a model framework for identifying context-specific wastewater surveillance targets for a mass gathering. Successful implementation of a wastewater surveillance plan for Paris 2024 could incentivise similar monitoring efforts for other mass gatherings globally.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Wastewater , Humans , Wastewater/virology , Wastewater/microbiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , France/epidemiology , Sports , Public Health , Pandemics , Sewage/virology , Paris/epidemiology , Anniversaries and Special Events , Public Health Surveillance/methods
3.
Infect Dis Now ; 54(4S): 104889, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38849256

ABSTRACT

The XXXIIIrd Paris Summer Olympics followed by the XVIIth Paralympics Games will take place in France, predominantly in and around Paris, from July 26 to September 8, 2024. Public health stakeholders and decision-makers are called upon to set up or strengthen surveillance systems in areas hosting Olympic or Paralympic Games (OPGs) or large-scale international competitions, the objective being to detect and manage outbreaks should they occur during that period. We undertook a narrative review of the literature so as to identify major reported infectious disease outbreaks linked with or during OPGs / international sporting events during warm seasons. Our review found that since 1992, Summer Olympic and Paralympic games and international football competitions have been associated with sporadic cases of infectious diseases, principally respiratory, gastrointestinal/foodborne, but not with any major communicable or other infectious disease outbreak. Communicable disease risks should be assessed for the population taken as a whole, an integrated ecosystem with several population compartments potentially exchanging pathogens among one another. Although the Games afford an opportunity to federate or invent new surveillance systems to fill a gap, surveillance should be based on existing medical and laboratory systems, proven tools reinforced with the necessary human and financial resources. The performance of the public health surveillance system is ultimately predicated on trust on the part of participating clinicians, policymakers and international partners.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases , Disease Outbreaks , Seasons , Sports , Humans , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Public Health/methods , Epidemiological Monitoring
4.
Euro Surveill ; 29(21)2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38785093

ABSTRACT

BackgroundDuring the 2022 mpox outbreak in Europe, primarily affecting men who have sex with men, a limited number of cases among children and adolescents were identified. Paediatric cases from outbreaks in endemic countries have been associated with a higher likelihood of severe illness. Detailed clinical case descriptions and interventions in school settings before 2022 are limited.AimTo describe clinical characteristics of mpox cases among children (< 15 years) and adolescents (15-17 years) in the greater Paris area in France, and infection control measures in schools.MethodsWe describe all notified laboratory-confirmed and non-laboratory-confirmed cases among children and adolescents identified from May 2022 to July 2023, including demographic and clinical characterisation and infection control measures in school settings, i.e. contact tracing, contact vaccination, secondary attack rate and post-exposure vaccination uptake.ResultsNineteen cases were notified (13 children, 6 adolescents). Four adolescent cases reported sexual contact before symptom onset. Ten child cases were secondary cases of adult patients; three cases were cryptic, with vesicles on hands, arms and/or legs and one case additionally presented with genitoanal lesions. Five cases attended school during their infectious period, with 160 at-risk contacts identified, and one secondary case. Five at-risk contacts were vaccinated following exposure.ConclusionCases among children and adolescents are infrequent but require a careful approach to identify the source of infection and ensure infection control measures. We advocate a 'contact warning' strategy vs 'contact tracing' in order to prevent alarm and stigma. Low post-exposure vaccination rates are expected.


Subject(s)
Contact Tracing , Disease Outbreaks , Schools , Humans , Adolescent , Male , Child , Female , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Paris/epidemiology , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Homosexuality, Male/statistics & numerical data , Follow-Up Studies , Meningococcal Infections/prevention & control , Meningococcal Infections/epidemiology
5.
Clin Microbiol Infect ; 30(8): 1061-1066, 2024 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38588877

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to estimate the effect of reported history of smallpox vaccination prior to 1980 on clinical expression of mpox. METHODS: We included all confirmed mpox cases identified by the national mpox surveillance system in France between May and July 2022. Cases tested positive for monkeypox virus or orthopoxviruses by PCR. Cases were interviewed by phone using a questionnaire documenting demographics, symptoms and exposures. To estimate the effect of smallpox vaccination on the presence of marked mpox symptoms (association of fever, lymphadenopathy and extensive mucocutaneous lesions), we estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors. RESULTS: There were 1888 confirmed mpox cases with date of symptom onset between 7 May and 31 July 2022. Overall, 7% (93/1394) presented marked mpox symptoms. Among patients who provided information about their vaccination status, 14% (207/1469) reported smallpox vaccination prior to 1980. The proportion of cases with marked symptoms was 2% (3/170) among those reporting smallpox vaccination prior to 1980 and 8% (76/974) among those who reported no vaccination. The proportion of marked symptoms was four times lower among cases reporting previous smallpox vaccination than in cases reporting no vaccination (PR, 0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.76). There was no evidence of an effect of smallpox vaccination on development of complications (PR, 0.65; 95% CI: 0.35-1.22) or hospitalization due to mpox (PR, 0.64; 95% CI: 0.23-1.80). DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that smallpox vaccination during childhood attenuated the clinical expression of monkeypox virus infection, but there was no evidence of an effect on complications or hospitalization.


Subject(s)
Smallpox Vaccine , Vaccination , Humans , France/epidemiology , Male , Female , Adult , Young Adult , Adolescent , Middle Aged , Child , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Mpox (monkeypox)/epidemiology , Child, Preschool , Aged , Infant , Monkeypox virus/genetics , Prevalence , Orthopoxvirus/genetics , Smallpox/epidemiology , Smallpox/prevention & control
6.
Sci Total Environ ; 917: 170355, 2024 Mar 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38281649

ABSTRACT

Numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants are emerging as the epidemic continues, inducing new waves of contamination. In July 2023, a new variant named BA.2.86 was identified, raising concerns about its potential for viral escape, even in an immune population. The reduction in patient-centered testing and the identification of variants by sequencing means that we are now blind to the spread of this new variant. The aim of this study was to track the signature of this variant in wastewater in Paris, France. This variant showed a very rapid spread, highly correlated with national flash studies involving sequencing of clinical samples, but with a moderate impact on virus circulation. This easy-to-implement approach enabled us to monitor the emergence and spread of this new variant in real time at low cost.


Subject(s)
Epidemics , Wastewater , Humans , Paris , France , Drug Contamination
7.
Euro Surveill ; 28(49)2023 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38062947

ABSTRACT

A cluster of three confirmed autochthonous dengue cases was detected in October 2023 in the Val-de-Marne department neighbouring Paris, France. This marks the northernmost transmission of dengue in Europe reported to date. The epidemiological and microbiological investigations and the vector control measures are described. This event confirms the need for early case detection and response to contain dengue in Europe, especially given the 2024 Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games, when millions of visitors will visit the Greater Paris area.


Subject(s)
Aedes , Dengue , Sports , Humans , Animals , Paris/epidemiology , Dengue/diagnosis , Dengue/epidemiology , Dengue/prevention & control , France/epidemiology , Europe/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control
8.
Euro Surveill ; 28(50)2023 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38099346

ABSTRACT

BackgroundLocally-acquired mpox cases were rarely reported outside Africa until May 2022, when locally-acquired-mpox cases occurred in various European countries.AimWe describe the mpox epidemic in France, including demographic and behavioural changes among a subset of cases, during its course.MethodsData were retrieved from the enhanced national surveillance system until 30 September 2022. Laboratory-confirmed cases tested positive for monkeypox virus or orthopoxviruses by PCR; non-laboratory-confirmed cases had clinical symptoms and an epidemiological link to a laboratory-confirmed case. A subset of ≥ 15-year-old male cases, notified until 1 August, was interviewed for epidemiological, clinical and sexual behaviour information. Association of symptom-onset month with quantitative outcomes was evaluated by t- or Wilcoxon tests, and with binary outcomes, by Pearson's chi-squared or Fisher exact tests.ResultsA total of 4,856 mpox cases were notified, mostly in Île-de-France region (62%; 3,025/4,855). Cases aged ≥ 15 years were predominantly male (97%; 4,668/4,812), with 37 years (range: 15-81) as mean age. Between May and July, among the subset interviewed, mpox cases increased in regions other than Île-de-France, and mean age rose from 35 (range: 21-64) to 38 years (range: 16-75; p = 0.007). Proportions of cases attending men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) meeting venues declined from 60% (55/91) to 46% (164/359; p = 0.012); median number of sexual partners decreased from four (interquartile range (IQR): 1-10) to two (IQR: 1-4; p < 0.001).ConclusionChanges in cases' characteristics during the epidemic, could reflect virus spread from people who were more to less behaviourally vulnerable to mpox between May and July, or MSM reducing numbers of sexual partners as recommended.


Subject(s)
Mpox (monkeypox) , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Male , Humans , Young Adult , Adult , Middle Aged , Adolescent , Female , Homosexuality, Male , Sexual Behavior , Disease Outbreaks , France/epidemiology
10.
Zoonoses Public Health ; 70(2): 171-175, 2023 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36409285

ABSTRACT

Live bird markets (LBMs) have been identified as key factors in the spread, persistence and evolution of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). In addition, these settings have been associated with human infections with AIVs of pandemic concern. Exposure to aerosolised AIVs by workers in a Cambodian LBM was assessed using aerosol impact samplers. LBM vendors were asked to wear an air sampler for 30 min per day for 1 week while continuing their usual activities in the LBM during a period of high AIV circulation (February) and a period of low circulation (May). During the period of high circulation, AIV RNA was detected from 100% of the air samplers using molecular methods and viable AIV (A/H5N1 and/or A/H9N2) was isolated from 50% of air samplers following inoculation into embryonated chicken eggs. In contrast, AIV was not detected by molecular methods or successfully isolated during the period of low circulation. This study demonstrates the increased risk of aerosol exposure of LBM workers to AIVs during periods of high circulation and highlights the need for interventions during these high-risk periods. Novel approaches, such as environmental sampling, should be further explored at key high-risk interfaces as a potentially cost-effective alternative for monitoring pandemic threats.


Subject(s)
Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype , Influenza A Virus, H9N2 Subtype , Influenza in Birds , Influenza, Human , Animals , Humans , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza A Virus, H9N2 Subtype/genetics , Influenza in Birds/epidemiology , Cambodia/epidemiology , Respiratory Aerosols and Droplets , Chickens , Phylogeny
11.
Lancet Glob Health ; 10(7): e989-e1002, 2022 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35714649

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Encephalitis is a worldwide public health issue, with a substantially high burden among children in southeast Asia. We aimed to determine the causes of encephalitis in children admitted to hospitals across the Greater Mekong region by implementing a comprehensive state-of-the-art diagnostic procedure harmonised across all centres, and identifying clinical characteristics related to patients' conditions. METHODS: In this multicentre, observational, prospective study of childhood encephalitis, four referral hospitals in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar recruited children (aged 28 days to 16 years) who presented with altered mental status lasting more than 24 h and two of the following minor criteria: fever (within the 72 h before or after presentation), one or more generalised or partial seizures (excluding febrile seizures), a new-onset focal neurological deficit, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) white blood cell count of 5 per mL or higher, or brain imaging (CT or MRI) suggestive of lesions of encephalitis. Comprehensive diagnostic procedures were harmonised across all centres, with first-line testing was done on samples taken at inclusion and results delivered within 24 h of inclusion for main treatable causes of disease and second-line testing was done thereafter for mostly non-treatable causes. An independent expert medical panel reviewed the charts and attribution of causes of all the included children. Using multivariate analyses, we assessed risk factors associated with unfavourable outcomes (ie, severe neurological sequelae and death) at discharge using data from baseline and day 2 after inclusion. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04089436, and is now complete. FINDINGS: Between July 28, 2014, and Dec 31, 2017, 664 children with encephalitis were enrolled. Median age was 4·3 years (1·8-8·8), 295 (44%) children were female, and 369 (56%) were male. A confirmed or probable cause of encephalitis was identified in 425 (64%) patients: 216 (33%) of 664 cases were due to Japanese encephalitis virus, 27 (4%) were due to dengue virus, 26 (4%) were due to influenza virus, 24 (4%) were due to herpes simplex virus 1, 18 (3%) were due to Mycobacterium tuberculosis, 17 (3%) were due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, 17 (3%) were due to enterovirus A71, 74 (9%) were due to other pathogens, and six (1%) were due to autoimmune encephalitis. Diagnosis was made within 24 h of admission to hospital for 83 (13%) of 664 children. 119 (18%) children had treatable conditions and 276 (42%) had conditions that could have been preventable by vaccination. At time of discharge, 153 (23%) of 664 children had severe neurological sequelae and 83 (13%) had died. In multivariate analyses, risk factors for unfavourable outcome were diagnosis of M tuberculosis infection upon admission (odds ratio 3·23 [95% CI 1·04-10·03]), coma on day 2 (2·90 [1·78-4·72]), supplementary oxygen requirement (1·89 [1·25-2·86]), and more than 1 week duration between symptom onset and admission to hospital (3·03 [1·68-5·48]). At 1 year after inclusion, of 432 children who were discharged alive from hospital with follow-up data, 24 (5%) had died, 129 (30%) had neurological sequelae, and 279 (65%) had completely recovered. INTERPRETATION: In southeast Asia, most causes of childhood encephalitis are either preventable or treatable, with Japanese encephalitis virus being the most common cause. We provide crucial information that could guide public health policy to improve diagnostic, vaccination, and early therapeutic guidelines on childhood encephalitis in the Greater Mekong region. FUNDING: Institut Pasteur, Institut Pasteur International Network, Fondation Merieux, Aviesan Sud, INSERM, Wellcome Trust, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), and Fondation Total.


Subject(s)
Encephalitis , Hashimoto Disease , Child , Child, Preschool , Encephalitis/diagnosis , Encephalitis/epidemiology , Encephalitis/etiology , Female , Fever , Hashimoto Disease/complications , Humans , Laos , Male , Prospective Studies
12.
Int J STD AIDS ; 33(8): 792-798, 2022 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35621120

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is high in New Caledonia (NC), but there are no data on Mycoplasma genitalium (MG). However, the syndromic treatment of urethritis used in the territory includes a single dose of azithromycin, which could generate resistance in MG. METHODS: We recruited 217 men referred to the Noumea public medical centre (CMP) with signs of urethritis and meeting the inclusion criteria from May 2016 to March 2018. Each was tested for Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) and for the first time in NC for MG by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). RESULTS: The prevalence of MG was 10.1% (22/217). Azithromycin resistance of MG (mutation in the 23S rRNA gene) could only be assessed for 10 of the 22 strains. Only one (1/10; 10%) was resistant. The prevalence of other STIs tested was high, as CT, NG and/or TV were associated in 77.3% (17/22) of MG-positive cases. CONCLUSIONS: Although co-infections further justify syndromic management, the presence of MG in NC urethritis cases could call treatment guidelines into question.


Subject(s)
Mycoplasma Infections , Mycoplasma genitalium , Sexual Health , Sexually Transmitted Diseases , Trichomonas vaginalis , Urethritis , Azithromycin/therapeutic use , Chlamydia trachomatis/genetics , Humans , Male , Mycoplasma Infections/diagnosis , Mycoplasma Infections/drug therapy , Mycoplasma Infections/epidemiology , Mycoplasma genitalium/genetics , Neisseria gonorrhoeae/genetics , New Caledonia/epidemiology , Prevalence , Sexually Transmitted Diseases/epidemiology , Urethritis/diagnosis , Urethritis/drug therapy , Urethritis/epidemiology
13.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 106(2): 486-493, 2022 01 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35008046

ABSTRACT

Leptospirosis is endemic in New Caledonia. Clinical diagnosis is often difficult and its evolution can be fatal. Leptospirosis requires specific management before biological confirmation. Modified Faine criteria (Faine Score) have been suggested to diagnose leptospirosis on epidemiological (parts A and B) and biological (part C) criteria. The main objective of our study was to assess the relevance of the epidemiological-clinical modified Faine score, parts A and B (MF A + B), in patients with suspected leptospirosis in New Caledonia. A monocentric case-control study was conducted in suspect patients for whom a Leptospira polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test was done within the first 7 days of signs onset at the tertiary hospital from January 2018 to January 2019. Cases and control subjects were matched 1:2 in the gender and age categories. Bivariate, and then multivariable, analyses studied the association between the MF A + B score and a positive Leptospira PCR test, adjusted on the variables retained. In all, 35 cases and 70 control subjects matched for age and gender were analyzed. Multivariable analysis by logistic regression found a significant association between an MF A + B score taken from the categories "possible leptospirosis" (score, 20-25) and "presumed leptospirosis" (score, > 26), and the case or control subject status (P < 0.0001). Model performance was high, with an area under the curve value of 99.27%, 93.55% sensitivity, and 96.36% specificity, which classified subjects correctly in 95.35% of cases. Our study suggests using the MF A + B score to identify possible cases of leptospirosis and initiate antibiotic therapy before biological confirmation in New Caledonia. This score should be evaluated in areas where more differential diagnoses exist and where PCR is not widely available.


Subject(s)
Leptospirosis/diagnosis , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Symptom Assessment/methods , Adult , Aged , Case-Control Studies , Female , Humans , Leptospirosis/pathology , Male , Middle Aged , New Caledonia/epidemiology , Odds Ratio , Sensitivity and Specificity , Tertiary Care Centers , Young Adult
14.
Malar J ; 20(1): 366, 2021 Sep 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34503519

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In many endemic areas, Plasmodium vivax malaria is predominantly a disease of young adults and children. International recommendations for radical cure recommend fixed target doses of 0.25 or 0.5 mg/kg/day of primaquine for 14 days in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase normal patients of all ages. However, for many anti-malarial drugs, including primaquine, there is evidence that children have lower exposures than adults for the same weight-adjusted dose. The aim of the study was to develop 14-day weight-based and age-based primaquine regimens against high-frequency relapsing tropical P. vivax. METHODS: The recommended adult target dose of 0.5 mg/kg/day (30 mg in a 60 kg patient) is highly efficacious against tropical P. vivax and was assumed to produce optimal drug exposure. Primaquine doses were calculated using allometric scaling to derive a weight-based primaquine regimen over a weight range from 5 to 100 kg. Growth curves were constructed from an anthropometric database of 53,467 individuals from the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) to define weight-for-age relationships. The median age associated with each weight was used to derive an age-based dosing regimen from the weight-based regimen. RESULTS: The proposed weight-based regimen has 5 dosing bands: (i) 5-7 kg, 5 mg, resulting in 0.71-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 8-16 kg, 7.5 mg, 0.47-0.94 mg/kg/day; (iii) 17-40 kg, 15 mg, 0.38-0.88 mg/kg/day; (iv) 41-80 kg, 30 mg, 0.37-0.73 mg/kg/day; and (v) 81-100 kg, 45 mg, 0.45-0.56 mg/kg/day. The corresponding age-based regimen had 4 dosing bands: 6-11 months, 5 mg, 0.43-1.0 mg/kg/day; (ii) 1-5 years, 7.5 mg, 0.35-1.25 mg/kg/day; (iii) 6-14 years, 15 mg, 0.30-1.36 mg/kg/day; and (iv) ≥ 15 years, 30 mg, 0.35-1.07 mg/kg/day. CONCLUSION: The proposed weight-based regimen showed less variability around the primaquine dose within each dosing band compared to the age-based regimen and is preferred. Increased dose accuracy could be achieved by additional dosing bands for both regimens. The age-based regimen might not be applicable to regions outside the GMS, which must be based on local anthropometric data. Pharmacokinetic data in small children are needed urgently to inform the proposed regimens.


Subject(s)
Antimalarials/administration & dosage , Drug Administration Schedule , Malaria, Vivax/prevention & control , Plasmodium vivax/drug effects , Primaquine/administration & dosage , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Body Weight , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Young Adult
15.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 470, 2021 May 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34030658

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In 2017, New Caledonia experienced an outbreak of severe dengue causing high hospital burden (4379 cases, 416 hospital admissions, 15 deaths). We decided to build a local operational model predictive of dengue severity, which was needed to ease the healthcare circuit. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed clinical and biological parameters associated with severe dengue in the cohort of patients hospitalized at the Territorial Hospital between January and July 2017 with confirmed dengue, in order to elaborate a comprehensive patient's score. Patients were compared in univariate and multivariate analyses. Predictive models for severity were built using a descending step-wise method. RESULTS: Out of 383 included patients, 130 (34%) developed severe dengue and 13 (3.4%) died. Major risk factors identified in univariate analysis were: age, comorbidities, presence of at least one alert sign, platelets count < 30 × 109/L, prothrombin time < 60%, AST and/or ALT > 10 N, and previous dengue infection. Severity was not influenced by the infecting dengue serotype nor by previous Zika infection. Two models to predict dengue severity were built according to sex. Best models for females and males had respectively a median Area Under the Curve = 0.80 and 0.88, a sensitivity = 84.5 and 84.5%, a specificity = 78.6 and 95.5%, a positive predictive value = 63.3 and 92.9%, a negative predictive value = 92.8 and 91.3%. Models were secondarily validated on 130 patients hospitalized for dengue in 2018. CONCLUSION: We built robust and efficient models to calculate a bedside score able to predict dengue severity in our setting. We propose the spreadsheet for dengue severity score calculations to health practitioners facing dengue outbreaks of enhanced severity in order to improve patients' medical management and hospitalization flow.


Subject(s)
Dengue/classification , Dengue/diagnosis , Dengue/epidemiology , Dengue/pathology , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Models, Theoretical , New Caledonia/epidemiology , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Triage
16.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 9(4)2021 Mar 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33805019

ABSTRACT

Pre-exposure rabies prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended for people at frequent or increased risk of professional exposure to lyssavirus (including rabies virus). PrEP provides protection against unrecognized exposure. After the primary vaccination, one's immune response against rabies may decline over time. We aimed to evaluate the immune response to rabies in individuals immunized for occupational reasons before and after a booster dose of the rabies vaccine. With this aim, we retrospectively documented factors associated with an inadequate response in individuals vaccinated for occupational purposes. Our findings analyzed data from 498 vaccinated individuals and found that 17.2% of participants had an inadequate antibody titration documented after their primary vaccination without the booster, while inadequate response after an additional booster of the vaccine was evidenced in 0.5% of tested participants. This study showed that a single booster dose of vaccine after PrEP conferred a high and long-term immune response in nearly all individuals except for rare, low responders. A systematic rabies booster after primary vaccination may result in alleviating the monitoring strategy of post-PrEP antibody titers among exposed professionals.

17.
Emerg Microbes Infect ; 10(1): 536-544, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33686914

ABSTRACT

Compared to the previous 2013-2014 outbreak, dengue 2016-2017 outbreak in New Caledonia was characterized by an increased number of severe forms associated with hepatic presentations. In this study, we assessed the virological factors associated with this enhanced severity. Whole-genome sequences were retrieved from dengue virus (DENV)-1 strains collected in 2013-2014 and from severe and non-severe patients in 2016-2017. Fitness, hepatic tropism and cytopathogenicity of DENV 2016-2017 strains were compared to those of 2013-2014 strains using replication kinetics in the human hepatic cell line HuH7. Whole-genome sequencing identified four amino acid substitutions specific to 2016-2017 strains and absent from 2013-2014 strains. Three of these mutations occurred in predicted T cell epitopes, among which one was also a B cell epitope. Strains retrieved from severe forms did not exhibit specific genetic features. DENV strains from 2016-2017 exhibited a trend towards reduced replicative fitness and cytopathogenicity in vitro compared to strains from 2013-2014. Overall, the 2016-2017 dengue outbreak in New Caledonia was associated with a viral genetic evolution which had limited impact on DENV hepatic tropism and cytopathogenicity. These mutations, however, may have modified DENV strains antigenicity, altering the anti-DENV immune response in some patients, in turn favoring the development of severe forms.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04615364.


Subject(s)
Dengue Virus/genetics , Dengue Virus/pathogenicity , Dengue/epidemiology , Dengue/virology , Evolution, Molecular , Hepatitis/virology , Amino Acid Substitution , Animals , Cell Line , Dengue/immunology , Dengue Virus/immunology , Disease Outbreaks , Genetic Variation , Genome, Viral , Genotype , Humans , Mutation , New Caledonia/epidemiology , Phylogeny , RNA, Viral , Sequence Analysis, RNA , Severity of Illness Index , Virus Replication , Whole Genome Sequencing
19.
PLoS One ; 15(11): e0242886, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33253284

ABSTRACT

With over one million cases worldwide annually and a high fatality in symptomatic forms, human leptospirosis is a growing public health concern for the most vulnerable populations, especially in the context of global warming and unplanned urbanization. Although the Asia-Pacific region is particularly affected, accurate epidemiological data are often lacking. We conducted an eleven-year retrospective laboratory-based epidemiological survey of human leptospirosis in New Caledonia. From 2006 to 2016, 904 cases were laboratory-confirmed, including 29 fatalities, corresponding to an average annual incidence of 30.6/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 3.2%. Over the period, there was a major shift from indirect serological diagnosis by MAT to direct diagnosis by real-time PCR, a more specific and sensitive test when performed early in the course of the disease. The systematic implementation of genotyping informed on the variety of the infective strains involved, with a predominance of serogroups Icterohaemorrhagiae and Pyrogenes. The epidemiological pattern showed a marked seasonality with an annual peak in March-April. Interestingly, the seasonal peak in children of school age was significantly earlier and corresponded to school holidays, suggesting that attending school from February on could protect children from environment-borne leptospirosis.


Subject(s)
Age Factors , Leptospira/pathogenicity , Leptospirosis/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Asia/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Infant , Leptospira/genetics , Leptospirosis/blood , Leptospirosis/microbiology , Leptospirosis/pathology , Male , Middle Aged , New Caledonia/epidemiology , Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction , Retrospective Studies , Serogroup , Young Adult
20.
Bull World Health Organ ; 98(8): 539-547, 2020 Aug 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32773899

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To better understand the potential risks of Nipah virus emergence in Cambodia by studying different components of the interface between humans and bats. METHODS: From 2012 to 2016, we conducted a study at two sites in Kandal and Battambang provinces where fruit bats (Pteropus lylei) roost. We combined research on: bat ecology (reproductive phenology, population dynamics and diet); human practices and perceptions (ethnographic research and a knowledge, attitude and practice study); and Nipah virus circulation in bat and human populations (virus monitoring in bat urine and anti-Nipah-virus antibody detection in human serum). FINDINGS: Our results confirmed circulation of Nipah virus in fruit bats (28 of 3930 urine samples positive by polymerase chain reaction testing). We identified clear potential routes for virus transmission to humans through local practices, including fruit consumed by bats and harvested by humans when Nipah virus is circulating, and palm juice production. Nevertheless, in the serological survey of 418 potentially exposed people, none of them were seropositive to Nipah virus. Differences in agricultural practices among the regions where Nipah virus has emerged may explain the situation in Cambodia and point to actions to limit the risks of virus transmission to humans. CONCLUSION: Human practices are key to understanding transmission risks associated with emerging infectious diseases. Social science disciplines such as anthropology need to be integrated in health programmes targeting emerging infectious diseases. As bats are hosts of major zoonotic pathogens, such integrated studies would likely also help to reduce the risk of emergence of other bat-borne diseases.


Subject(s)
Chiroptera/virology , Henipavirus Infections/psychology , Henipavirus Infections/transmission , Nipah Virus/isolation & purification , Animals , Anthropology, Cultural , Antibodies, Viral , Cambodia/epidemiology , Female , Fruit , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Henipavirus Infections/epidemiology , Henipavirus Infections/urine , Humans , Male , Nipah Virus/immunology , Risk Factors , Zoonoses/virology
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