Estimation and probabilistic projection of age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rate estimation in small areas can be difficult due the low number of events/exposure (i.e. stochastic error). If the death records are not completed, it adds a systematic uncertainty on the mortality estimates. Previous studies in Brazil have combined demographic and statistical methods to partially overcome these issues. We estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all 5,565 Brazilian municipalities in 2010 and forecasted probabilistic mortality rates and life expectancy between 2010 and 2030. METHODS: We used a combination of the Tool for Projecting Age-Specific Rates Using Linear Splines (TOPALS), Bayesian Model, Spatial Smoothing Model and an ad-hoc procedure to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities for 2010. Then we adapted the Lee-Carter model to forecast mortality rates by age and sex in all municipalities between 2010 and 2030. RESULTS: The adjusted sex- and age-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities in 2010 reveal a distinct regional pattern, showcasing a decrease in life expectancy in less socioeconomically developed municipalities when compared to estimates without adjustments. The forecasted mortality rates indicate varying regional improvements, leading to a convergence in life expectancy at birth among small areas in Brazil. Consequently, a reduction in the variability of age at death across Brazil's municipalities was observed, with a persistent sex differential. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates at a small-area level were successfully estimated and forecasted, with associated uncertainty estimates also generated for future life tables. Our approach could be applied across countries with data quality issues to improve public policy planning.

Incidence and risk factors of tuberculosis among 420 854 household contacts of patients with tuberculosis in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (2004-18): a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although household contacts of patients with tuberculosis are known to be particularly vulnerable to tuberculosis, the published evidence focused on this group at high risk within the low-income and middle-income country context remains sparse. Using nationwide data from Brazil, we aimed to estimate the incidence and investigate the socioeconomic and clinical determinants of tuberculosis in a cohort of contacts of tuberculosis patients. METHODS: In this cohort study, we linked individual socioeconomic and demographic data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort to mortality data and tuberculosis registries, identified contacts of tuberculosis index patients diagnosed from Jan 1, 2004 to Dec 31, 2018, and followed up the contacts until the contact's subsequent tuberculosis diagnosis, the contact's death, or Dec 31, 2018. We investigated factors associated with active tuberculosis using multilevel Poisson regressions, allowing for municipality-level and household-level random effects. FINDINGS: We studied 420 854 household contacts of 137 131 tuberculosis index patients. During the 15 years of follow-up (median 4·4 years [IQR 1·9-7·6]), we detected 8953 contacts with tuberculosis. The tuberculosis incidence among contacts was 427·8 per 100 000 person-years at risk (95% CI 419·1-436·8), 16-times higher than the incidence in the general population (26·2 [26·1-26·3]) and the risk was prolonged. Tuberculosis incidence was associated with the index patient being preschool aged (<5 years; adjusted risk ratio 4·15 [95% CI 3·26-5·28]) or having pulmonary tuberculosis (2·84 [2·55-3·17]). INTERPRETATION: The high and sustained risk of tuberculosis among contacts reinforces the need to systematically expand and strengthen contact tracing and preventive treatment policies in Brazil in order to achieve national and international targets for tuberculosis elimination. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and Brazilian Ministry of Health.

Cesarean sections and early-term births according to Robson classification: a population-based study with more than 17 million births in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Cesarean section (CS) rates are increasing worldwide and are associated with negative maternal and child health outcomes when performed without medical indication. However, there is still limited knowledge about the association between high CS rates and early-term births. This study explored the association between CSs and early-term births according to the Robson classification. METHODS: A population-based, cross-sectional study was performed with routine registration data of live births in Brazil between 2012 and 2019. We used the Robson classification system to compare groups with expected high and low CS rates. We used propensity scores to compare CSs to vaginal deliveries (1:1) and estimated associations with early-term births using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 17,081,685 live births were included. Births via CS had higher odds of early-term birth (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.32-1.32) compared to vaginal deliveries. Births by CS to women in Group 2 (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.49-1.51) and 4 (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.56-1.58) showed the highest odds of early-term birth, compared to vaginal deliveries. Increased odds of an early-term birth were also observed among births by CS to women in Group 3 (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.29-1.31), compared to vaginal deliveries. In addition, live births by CS to women with a previous CS (Group 5 - OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.35-1.37), a single breech pregnancy (Group 6 - OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.11-1.21, and Group 7 - OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.16-1.23), and multiple pregnancies (Group 8 - OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.40-1.52) had high odds of an early-term birth, compared to live births by vaginal delivery. CONCLUSIONS: CSs were associated with increased odds of early-term births. The highest odds of early-term birth were observed among those births by CS in Robson Groups 2 and 4.

Mortality inequalities measured by socioeconomic indicators in Brazil: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: Summarize the literature on the relationship between composite socioeconomic indicators and mortality in different geographical areas of Brazil. METHODS: This scoping review included articles published between January 1, 2000, and August 31, 2020, retrieved by means of a bibliographic search carried out in the Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, and Lilacs databases. Studies reporting on the association between composite socioeconomic indicators and all-cause, or specific cause of death in any age group in different geographical areas were selected. The review summarized the measures constructed, their associations with the outcomes, and potential study limitations. RESULTS: Of the 77 full texts that met the inclusion criteria, the study reviewed 24. The area level of composite socioeconomic indicators analyzed comprised municipalities (n = 6), districts (n = 5), census tracts (n = 4), state (n = 2), country (n = 2), and other areas (n = 5). Six studies used composite socioeconomic indicators such as the Human Development Index, Gross Domestic Product, and the Gini Index; the remaining 18 papers created their own socioeconomic measures based on sociodemographic and health indicators. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with higher rates of all-cause mortality, external cause mortality, suicide, homicide, fetal and infant mortality, respiratory and circulatory diseases, stroke, infectious and parasitic diseases, malnutrition, gastroenteritis, and oropharyngeal cancer. Higher mortality rates due to colorectal cancer, leukemia, a general group of neoplasms, traffic accident, and suicide, in turn, were observed in less deprived areas and/or those with more significant socioeconomic development. Underreporting of death and differences in mortality coverage in Brazilian areas were cited as the main limitation. CONCLUSIONS: Studies analyzed mortality inequalities in different geographical areas by means of composite socioeconomic indicators, showing that the association directions vary according to the mortality outcome. But studies on all-cause mortality and at the census tract level remain scarce. The results may guide the development of new composite socioeconomic indicators for use in mortality inequality analysis.

Differentials in death count records by databases in Brazil in 2010.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the death counts from three sources of information on mortality available in Brazil in 2010, the Mortality Information System (SIM - Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade ), Civil Registration Statistic System (RC - Sistema de Estatísticas de Resgistro Civil ), and the 2010 Demographic Census at various geographical levels, and to confirm the association between municipal socioeconomic characteristics and the source which showed the highest death count. METHODS: This is a descriptive and comparative study of raw data on deaths in the SIM, RC and 2010 Census databases, the latter held in Brazilian states and municipalities between August 2009 and July 2010. The percentage of municipalities was confirmed by the database showing the highest death count. The association between the source of the highest death count and socioeconomic indicators - the Índice de Privação Brasileiro (IBP - Brazilian Deprivation Index) and Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (IHDM - Municipal Human Development Index) - was performed by bivariate choropleth and Moran Local Index of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster maps. RESULTS: Confirmed that the SIM is the database with the highest number of deaths counted for all Brazilian macroregions, except the North, in which the highest coverage was from the 2010 Census. Based on the indicators proposed, in general, the Census showed a higher coverage of deaths than the SIM and the RC in the most deprived (highest IBP values) and less developed municipalities (lowest IDHM values) in the country. CONCLUSION: The results highlight regional inequalities in how the databases chosen for this study cover death records, and the importance of maintaining the issue of mortality on the basic census questionnaire.

Mortality inequalities measured by socioeconomic indicators in Brazil: a scoping review

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Summarize the literature on the relationship between composite socioeconomic indicators and mortality in different geographical areas of Brazil. METHODS This scoping review included articles published between January 1, 2000, and August 31, 2020, retrieved by means of a bibliographic search carried out in the Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, and Lilacs databases. Studies reporting on the association between composite socioeconomic indicators and all-cause, or specific cause of death in any age group in different geographical areas were selected. The review summarized the measures constructed, their associations with the outcomes, and potential study limitations. RESULTS Of the 77 full texts that met the inclusion criteria, the study reviewed 24. The area level of composite socioeconomic indicators analyzed comprised municipalities (n = 6), districts (n = 5), census tracts (n = 4), state (n = 2), country (n = 2), and other areas (n = 5). Six studies used composite socioeconomic indicators such as the Human Development Index, Gross Domestic Product, and the Gini Index; the remaining 18 papers created their own socioeconomic measures based on sociodemographic and health indicators. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with higher rates of all-cause mortality, external cause mortality, suicide, homicide, fetal and infant mortality, respiratory and circulatory diseases, stroke, infectious and parasitic diseases, malnutrition, gastroenteritis, and oropharyngeal cancer. Higher mortality rates due to colorectal cancer, leukemia, a general group of neoplasms, traffic accident, and suicide, in turn, were observed in less deprived areas and/or those with more significant socioeconomic development. Underreporting of death and differences in mortality coverage in Brazilian areas were cited as the main limitation. CONCLUSIONS Studies analyzed mortality inequalities in different geographical areas by means of composite socioeconomic indicators, showing that the association directions vary according to the mortality outcome. But studies on all-cause mortality and at the census tract level remain scarce. The results may guide the development of new composite socioeconomic indicators for use in mortality inequality analysis.

Differentials in death count records by databases in Brazil in 2010

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare the death counts from three sources of information on mortality available in Brazil in 2010, the Mortality Information System (SIM - Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade ), Civil Registration Statistic System (RC - Sistema de Estatísticas de Resgistro Civil ), and the 2010 Demographic Census at various geographical levels, and to confirm the association between municipal socioeconomic characteristics and the source which showed the highest death count. METHODS This is a descriptive and comparative study of raw data on deaths in the SIM, RC and 2010 Census databases, the latter held in Brazilian states and municipalities between August 2009 and July 2010. The percentage of municipalities was confirmed by the database showing the highest death count. The association between the source of the highest death count and socioeconomic indicators - the Índice de Privação Brasileiro (IBP - Brazilian Deprivation Index) and Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (IHDM - Municipal Human Development Index) - was performed by bivariate choropleth and Moran Local Index of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster maps. RESULTS Confirmed that the SIM is the database with the highest number of deaths counted for all Brazilian macroregions, except the North, in which the highest coverage was from the 2010 Census. Based on the indicators proposed, in general, the Census showed a higher coverage of deaths than the SIM and the RC in the most deprived (highest IBP values) and less developed municipalities (lowest IDHM values) in the country. CONCLUSION The results highlight regional inequalities in how the databases chosen for this study cover death records, and the importance of maintaining the issue of mortality on the basic census questionnaire.

Overweight in Rural Quilombola and Non-quilombola Adolescents From the Northeast of Brazil.

Introduction: Overweight is an emerging problem among children and adolescents that leads to the development of several morbidities and health risks. Overweight occurs differently in different populations, especially in vulnerable groups like the rural and quilombola communities (an African-descendant population). This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of overweight and to investigate the possible associated factors in rural adolescents living in both quilombola and non-quilombola communities in Northeast Brazil. Methods: This study is a population-based cross-sectional study with a household approach carried out in 2015 with 390 adolescents (age 10-19 years) living in rural quilombola and non-quilombola communities. The nutritional status was gauged using z-scores calculated for body mass index (BMI) and varies with gender and age. Prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to establish associations between the results and explained variables. The multivariate analysis followed a model with a hierarchical entry of covariables controlled by gender and age. Results: The study showed that 18.5% of rural adolescents were overweight, of which 17.9% were quilombolas and 19.0% were non-quilombolas. A significant difference in overweight between the samples was not found. In the multivariate-adjusted model, age ≥16 years (PR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.28-0.95), the habit of having regular breakfast (PR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.35-0.98), and process of attending school (PR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.17-0.71) were associated with a lower prevalence of overweight. Stationary screen time, in contrast, was associated with a higher prevalence (PR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.05-2.46). The process of attending school was associated with a lower prevalence of overweight (PR: 0.26; 95% CI: 0.09-0.69), even for the quilombolas. Conclusions: A low prevalence of overweight was identified in rural adolescents. Overweight was significantly associated with the habit of having regular breakfast, older age, stationary screen time, and the process of attending school. The results reveal that school is a potential space for health promotion interventions, specifically in the most vulnerable rural regions, such as the quilombola communities. Besides, the study emphasizes the importance of adopting a healthy lifestyle early in life, including cultivating the habit of having regular breakfast and reducing stationary screen time.