Projected Number of People With Onchocerciasis-Loiasis Coinfection in Africa, 1995 to 2025.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) is hampered by coendemicity of Loa loa, as people with high L. loa microfilariae (mf) density can develop serious adverse events (SAEs) after ivermectin treatment. We assessed the geographical overlap of onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence and estimated the number of coinfected individuals at risk of post-ivermectin SAEs in West and Central Africa from 1995 to 2025. METHODS: Focusing on regions with suspected loiasis transmission in 14 countries, we overlaid precontrol maps of loiasis and onchocerciasis prevalence to calculate precontrol prevalence of coinfection by 5 km2 × 5 km2 pixel, distinguishing different categories of L. loa mf intensity. Using statistical and mathematical models, we predicted prevalence of both infections and coinfection for 2015 and 2025, accounting for the impact of MDA with ivermectin. RESULTS: The number of people infected with onchocerciasis was predicted to decline from almost 19 million in 1995 to 4 million in 2025. Of these, 137 000 people were estimated to also have L. loa hypermicrofilaremia (≥20 000 L. loa mf/mL) in 1995, declining to 31 000 in 2025. In 2025, 92.8% of coinfected cases with loiasis hypermicrofilaremia are predicted to live in hypoendemic areas currently not targeted for MDA. CONCLUSIONS: Loiasis coinfection is a major concern for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa. We predict that under current strategies, at least 31 000 coinfected people still require treatment for onchocerciasis in 2025 while being at risk of SAEs, justifying continued efforts in research and development for safer drugs and control strategies.

How Can Onchocerciasis Elimination in Africa Be Accelerated? Modeling the Impact of Increased Ivermectin Treatment Frequency and Complementary Vector Control.

Background: Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated. Methods: We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination. Results: Areas with 40%-50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%-80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control. Conclusions: Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful.

Identifying co-endemic areas for major filarial infections in sub-Saharan Africa: seeking synergies and preventing severe adverse events during mass drug administration campaigns.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) are major filarial infections targeted for elimination in most endemic sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries by 2020/2025. The current control strategies are built upon community-directed mass administration of ivermectin (CDTI) for onchocerciasis, and ivermectin plus albendazole for LF, with evidence pointing towards the potential for novel drug regimens. When distributing microfilaricides however, considerable care is needed to minimise the risk of severe adverse events (SAEs) in areas that are co-endemic for onchocerciasis or LF and loiasis. This work aims to combine previously published predictive risk maps for onchocerciasis, LF and loiasis to (i) explore the scale of spatial heterogeneity in co-distributions, (ii) delineate target populations for different treatment strategies, and (iii) quantify populations at risk of SAEs across the continent. METHODS: Geographical co-endemicity of filarial infections prior to the implementation of large-scale mass treatment interventions was analysed by combining a contemporary LF endemicity map with predictive prevalence maps of onchocerciasis and loiasis. Potential treatment strategies were geographically delineated according to the level of co-endemicity and estimated transmission intensity. RESULTS: In total, an estimated 251 million people live in areas of LF and/or onchocerciasis transmission in SSA, based on 2015 population estimates. Of these, 96 million live in areas co-endemic for both LF and onchocerciasis, providing opportunities for integrated control programmes, and 83 million live in LF-monoendemic areas potentially targetable for the novel ivermectin-diethylcarbamazine-albendazole (IDA) triple therapy. Only 4% of the at-risk population live in areas co-endemic with high loiasis transmission, representing up to 1.2 million individuals at high risk of experiencing SAEs if treated with ivermectin. In these areas, alternative treatment strategies should be explored, including biannual albendazole monotherapy for LF (1.4 million individuals) and 'test-and-treat' strategies (8.7 million individuals) for onchocerciasis. CONCLUSIONS: These maps are intended to initiate discussion around the potential for tailored treatment strategies, and highlight populations at risk of SAEs. Further work is required to test and refine strategies in programmatic settings, providing the empirical evidence needed to guide efforts towards the 2020/2025 goals and beyond.

Progress towards onchocerciasis elimination in the participating countries of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control: epidemiological evaluation results.

BACKGROUND: The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was created in 1995 to establish community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTi) in order to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries that had 80 % of the global disease burden. When research showed that CDTi may ultimately eliminate onchocerciasis infection, APOC was given in 2008 the additional objective to determine when and where treatment can be safely stopped. We report the results of epidemiological evaluations undertaken from 2008 to 2014 to assess progress towards elimination in CDTi areas with ≥6 years treatment. METHODS: Skin snip surveys were undertaken in samples of first-line villages to determine the prevalence of O. volvulus microfilariae. There were two evaluation phases. The decline in prevalence was evaluated in phase 1A. Observed and model-predicted prevalences were compared after correcting for endemicity level and treatment coverage. Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo simulation were used to classify the decline in prevalence as faster than predicted, on track or delayed. Where the prevalence approached elimination levels, phase 1B was launched to determine if treatment could be safely stopped. Village sampling was extended to the whole CDTi area. Survey data were analysed within a Bayesian framework to determine if stopping criteria (overall prevalence <1.4 % and maximum stratum prevalence <5 %) were met. RESULTS: In phase 1A 127 665 people from 639 villages in 54 areas were examined. The prevalence had fallen dramatically. The decline in prevalence was faster than predicted in 23 areas, on track in another 23 and delayed in eight areas. In phase 1B 108 636 people in 392 villages were examined in 22 areas of which 13 met the epidemiological criteria for stopping treatment. Overall, 32 areas (25.4 million people) had reached or were close to elimination, 18 areas (17.4 million) were on track but required more years treatment, and in eight areas (10.4 million) progress was unsatisfactory. CONCLUSIONS: Onchocerciasis has been largely controlled as a public health problem. Great progress has been made towards elimination which already appears to have been achieved for millions of people. For most APOC countries, nationwide onchocerciasis elimination is within reach.

A Recombinant Positive Control for Serology Diagnostic Tests Supporting Elimination of Onchocerca volvulus.

BACKGROUND: Serological assays for human IgG4 to the Onchocerca volvulus antigen Ov16 have been used to confirm elimination of onchocerciasis in much of the Americas and parts of Africa. A standardized source of positive control antibody (human anti-Ov16 IgG4) will ensure the quality of surveillance data using these tests. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A recombinant human IgG4 antibody to Ov16 was identified by screening against a synthetic human Fab phage display library and converted into human IgG4. This antibody was developed into different positive control formulations for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and rapid diagnostic test (RDT) platforms. Variation in ELISA results and utility as a positive control of the antibody were assessed from multiple laboratories. Temperature and humidity conditions were collected across seven surveillance activities from 2011-2014 to inform stability requirements for RDTs and positive controls. The feasibility of the dried positive control for RDT was evaluated during onchocerciasis surveillance activity in Togo, in 2014. When the anti-Ov16 IgG4 antibody was used as a standard dilution in horseradish peroxidase (HRP) and alkaline phosphatase (AP) ELISAs, the detection limits were approximately 1ng/mL by HRP ELISA and 10ng/mL by AP ELISA. Positive control dilutions and spiked dried blood spots (DBS) produced similar ELISA results. Used as a simple plate normalization control, the positive control antibody may improve ELISA data comparison in the context of inter-laboratory variation. The aggregate temperature and humidity monitor data informed temperature parameters under which the dried positive control was tested and are applicable inputs for testing of diagnostics tools intended for sub-Saharan Africa. As a packaged positive control for Ov16 RDTs, stability of the antibody was demonstrated for over six months at relevant temperatures in the laboratory and for over 15 weeks under field conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The recombinant human anti-Ov16 IgG4 antibody-based positive control will benefit inter-laboratory validation of ELISA assays and serve as quality control (QC) reagents for Ov16 RDTs at different points of the supply chain from manufacturer to field use.

The geographic distribution of onchocerciasis in the 20 participating countries of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control: (2) pre-control endemicity levels and estimated number infected.

BACKGROUND: The original aim of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries. In order to identify all high risk areas where ivermectin treatment was needed to achieve control, APOC used Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis (REMO). REMO involved spatial sampling of villages to be surveyed, and examination of 30 to 50 adults per village for palpable onchocercal nodules. REMO has now been virtually completed and we report the results in two articles. A companion article reports the delineation of high risk areas based on expert analysis. The present article reports the results of a geostatistical analysis of the REMO data to map endemicity levels and estimate the number infected. METHODS: A model-based geostatistical analysis of the REMO data was undertaken to generate high-resolution maps of the predicted prevalence of nodules and of the probability that the true nodule prevalence exceeds the high risk threshold of 20%. The number infected was estimated by converting nodule prevalence to microfilaria prevalence, and multiplying the predicted prevalence for each location with local data on population density. The geostatistical analysis included the nodule palpation data for 14,473 surveyed villages. RESULTS: The generated map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels, as reflected in the prevalence of nodules, is a significant advance with many new endemic areas identified. The prevalence of nodules was > 20% over an area of 2.5 million km2 with an estimated population of 62 million people. The results were consistent with the delineation of high risk areas of the expert analysis except for borderline areas where the prevalence fluctuated around 20%. It is estimated that 36 million people would have been infected in the APOC countries by 2011 if there had been no ivermectin treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels has proven very valuable for onchocerciasis control in the APOC countries. Following the recent shift to onchocerciasis elimination, the map continues to play an important role in planning treatment, evaluating impact and predicting treatment end dates in relation to local endemicity levels.

The geographic distribution of onchocerciasis in the 20 participating countries of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control: (1) priority areas for ivermectin treatment.

BACKGROUND: The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was created to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries. Its main strategy is community directed treatment with ivermectin. In order to identify all high risk areas where ivermectin treatment was needed, APOC used Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis (REMO). REMO has now been virtually completed and we report the results in two articles. The present article reports the mapping of high risk areas where onchocerciasis was a public health problem. The companion article reports the results of a geostatistical analysis of the REMO data to map endemicity levels and estimate the number infected. METHODS: REMO consists of three stages: exclusion of areas that are unsuitable for the vector, selection of sample villages to be surveyed in each river basin, and examination of 30 to 50 adults for the presence of palpable onchocercal nodules in each selected village. The survey results and other relevant information were processed in a geographical information system. A panel of experts interpreted the data taking the river-based sampling into account and delineated high risk areas where the prevalence of nodules is greater than 20%. RESULTS: Unsuitable areas were identified in eight countries. In the remaining areas surveys were done in a total of 14,473 sample villages in which more than half a million people were examined. High-risk areas were identified in 18 APOC countries, ranging from small isolated foci to a vast contiguous endemic area of 2 million km2 running across seven countries. In five countries the high risk area covered more than 48% of the total surface area, and 31% to 48% of the population. It is estimated that 86 million people live in high risk areas in the APOC countries. CONCLUSIONS: The REMO maps have played a significant role in onchocerciasis control in the 20 APOC countries. All high-risk areas where onchocerciasis used to be a serious public health problem have been clearly delineated. This led to the creation of community-directed treatment projects that by 2012 were providing annual ivermectin treatment to over 80 million people.

Therapeutic efficacy of chloroquine and chloroquine plus primaquine for the treatment of Plasmodium vivax in Ethiopia.

Plasmodium vivax is the second most important cause of morbidity in Ethiopia. There is, however, little information on P. vivax resistance to chloroquine and chloroquine plus primaquine treatment although these drugs have been used as the first line treatment for over 50 years. We assessed the efficacy of standard chloroquine and chloroquine plus primaquine treatment for P. vivax infections in a randomized open-label comparative study in Debre Zeit and Nazareth in East Shoa, Ethiopia. A total of 290 patients with microscopically confirmed P. vivax malaria who presented to the outpatient settings of the two laboratory centers were enrolled: 145 patients were randomized to receive CQ and 145 to receive CQ+PQ treatment. Participants were followed-up for 28-157 days according to the WHO procedures. There were 12 (6.5%) lost to follow-up patients and 9 (3.1%) withdrawals. In all, 96% (277/290) of patients were analysed at day 28. Baseline characteristics were similar in all treatment groups. In all, 98.6% (275/277) of patients had cleared their parasitemia on day 3 with no difference in mean parasite clearance time between regimens (48.34+/-17.68, 50.67+/-15.70 h for the CQ and CQ+PQ group, respectively, P=0.25). The cumulative incidence of therapeutic failure at day 28 by a life-table analysis method was 5.76% (95% CI: 2.2-14.61) and 0.75% (95% CI: 0.11-5.2%) in the CQ and CQ+PQ group, respectively (P=0.19). The relapse rate was 8% (9/108) for the CQ group and 3% (4/132) for the comparison group (P=0.07). The cumulative risk of relapse at day 157 by a life-table method was 61.8% (95% CI: 20.1-98.4%) in the CQ group, compared with 26.3% (95% CI: 7.5-29.4%) in the CQ+PQ group (P=0.0038). The study confirms the emergence of CQ and PQ resistance/treatment failure in P. vivax malaria in Ethiopia. Although treatment failures were detected, they were similar between the treatment groups. We recommend regular monitoring and periodic evaluation of the efficacy of these antimalarial drugs in systematically selected sentinel sites to detect further development of resistance and to make timely national antimalarial drug policy changes.