Prognostic Factors and Models to Predict Mortality Outcomes in Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: Predicting adverse outcomes in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a complex task owing to the heterogeneity in patient and disease characteristics. This systematic review aimed to identify prognostic factors and prognostic models to predict mortality outcomes in patients with PAD Fontaine stage I - III or Rutherford category 0 - 4. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched to identify studies examining individual prognostic factors or studies aiming to develop or validate a prognostic model for mortality outcomes in patients with PAD. REVIEW METHODS: Information on study design, patient population, prognostic factors, and prognostic model characteristics was extracted, and risk of bias was evaluated. RESULTS: Sixty nine studies investigated prognostic factors for mortality outcomes in PAD. Over 80 single prognostic factors were identified, with age as a predictor of death in most of the studies. Other common factors included sex, diabetes, and smoking status. Six studies had low risk of bias in all domains, and the remainder had an unclear or high risk of bias in at least one domain. Eight studies developed or validated a prognostic model. All models included age in their primary model, but not sex. All studies had similar discrimination levels of > 70%. Five of the studies on prognostic models had an overall high risk of bias, whereas two studies had an overall unclear risk of bias. CONCLUSION: This systematic review shows that a large number of prognostic studies have been published, with heterogeneity in patient populations, outcomes, and risk of bias. Factors such as sex, age, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking are significant in predicting mortality risk among patients with PAD Fontaine stage I - III or Rutherford category 0 - 4.

Dietary habits and compliance with dietary guidelines in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy dietary habits are an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and adopting a healthy diet is a central recommendation in CVD prevention. This study assessed the dietary habits of patients with established CVD, their compliance to dietary guidelines, and the relationship between guideline-compliance and recurrent cardiovascular event risk. METHODS: 2656 patients with established CVD from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART) prospective cohort study, were included between 1996 and 2022. Data on dietary intake was retrospectively collected for all participants in December 2022 using a 160-item food frequency questionnaire. Compliance with dietary guidelines was quantified using an amended version of the Dutch Healthy Diet 2015 (DHD-15) index (range: 0-135). Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the relationship with cardiovascular events (stroke and myocardial infarction). RESULTS: Among 2656 CVD patients (77% male, mean age 59 ± 9 years), median energy intake was 1922 [IQR: 1536-2351] kcal/day. The median DHD-15 index was 81.7 [IQR 71.2-92.0], with high compliance scores for recommendations on legumes and fish, and low scores for recommendations on whole grains, red meat, processed meat, and dairy. A higher DHD-15 score was associated with lower stroke risk (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.66-0.92 per 10-point increase) but not with myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: Compliance with dietary guidelines was suboptimal in patients with established CVD. High compliance was associated with a clinically significant reduction in stroke risk in patients with established CVD, emphasizing the importance of dietary counseling.

Sex Differences in Mortality Risk after the First Hospitalisation with Lower Extremity Peripheral Arterial Disease.

OBJECTIVE: Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a severe condition that increases the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, major adverse limb events, and all cause mortality. This study aimed to investigate the mortality risk among females and males hospitalised for the first time with lower extremity PAD. METHODS: Three cohorts of patients who were admitted for the first time with lower extremity PAD in 2007 - 2010, 2011 - 2014, and 2015 - 2018 were constructed. For the 2007 - 2010 and 2011 - 2014 cohorts, the 28 day, one year, and five year mortality rates were calculated, assessing survival time from date of hospital admission until date of death, end of study period, or censoring. For the 2015 - 2018 cohort, only 28 day and one year mortality were investigated due to lack of follow up data. Mortality rates of these cohorts were compared with the general population using standardised mortality rates (SMRs), and the risk of death between sexes was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. Cox models were adjusted for age, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus to account for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: In total, 7 950, 9 670, and 13 522 patients were included in the 2007 - 2010, 2011 - 2014, and 2015 - 2018 cohorts, respectively. Over 60% of individuals in each cohort were males. Mortality rates at 28 day and one year remained stable across all cohorts, while the five year mortality rate increased for both males and females in the 2011 - 2014 cohort. The SMRs both of females and males with PAD were significantly higher than in the general population. Multivariable regression analyses found no significant differences in mortality risk between sexes at 28 day and one year. However, the five year mortality risk was lower in females, with a hazard ratio of 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83 - 0.97) in the 2007 - 2010 cohort and 0.88 (95% CI 0.82 - 0.94) in the 2011 - 2014 cohort. CONCLUSION: The five year mortality risk has increased, and females face a lower mortality risk than males. Lower extremity PAD still carries unfavourable long term consequences compared with the general population.

Development and validation of a lifetime prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the CVD2DM model.

AIMS: Identifying patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) may allow for early interventions, reducing the development of T2D and associated morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate the CVD2DM model to estimate the 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D in patients with established CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were derived in 19 281 participants with established CVD and without diabetes at baseline from the UK Biobank. The core model's pre-specified predictors were age, current smoking, family history of diabetes mellitus, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and HDL cholesterol. The extended model also included HbA1c. The model was externally validated in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study. During a median follow-up of 12.2 years (interquartile interval 11.3-13.1), 1628 participants with established CVD were diagnosed with T2D in the UK Biobank. External validation c-statistics were 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.82] for the core model and 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84) for the extended model. Calibration plots showed agreement between predicted and observed 10-year risk of T2D. CONCLUSION: The 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D can be estimated with the CVD2DM model in patients with established CVD, using readily available clinical predictors. The model would benefit from further validation across diverse ethnic groups to enhance its applicability. Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

In this study, we developed and externally validated the CVD2DM model, which predicts the 10-year and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in individuals who already have cardiovascular disease (CVD). The key findings are as follows: The CVD2DM model is the first model to estimate the risk of developing T2D applicable in all patients with atherosclerotic CVD. The model is based on several factors available in clinical practice, such as age, fasting plasma glucose, family history of diabetes, and body mass index. It was developed in 19 281 patients from the UK Biobank. The model performed well in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study.Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

Off-the-Shelf Synthetic Biodegradable Grafts Transform In Situ into a Living Arteriovenous Fistula in a Large Animal Model.

Current vascular access options require frequent interventions. In situ tissue engineering (TE) may overcome these limitations by combining the initial success of synthetic grafts with long-term advantages of autologous vessels by using biodegradable grafts that transform into autologous vascular tissue at the site of implantation. Scaffolds (6 mm-Ø) made of supramolecular polycarbonate-bisurea (PC-BU), with a polycaprolactone (PCL) anti-kinking-coil, are implanted between the carotid artery and jugular vein in goats. A subset is bio-functionalized using bisurea-modified-Stromal cell-derived factor-1α (SDF1α) derived peptides and ePTFE grafts as controls. Grafts are explanted after 1 and 3 months, and evaluated for material degradation, tissue formation, compliance, and patency. At 3 months, the scaffold is resorbed and replaced by vascular neo-tissue, including elastin, contractile markers, and endothelial lining. No dilations, ruptures, or aneurysms are observed and grafts are successfully cannulated at termination. SDF-1α-peptide-biofunctionalization does not influence outcomes. Patency is lower in TE grafts (50%) compared to controls (100% patency), predominantly caused by intimal hyperplasia. Rapid remodeling of a synthetic, biodegradable vascular scaffold into a living, compliant arteriovenous fistula is demonstrated in a large animal model. Despite lower patency compared to ePTFE, transformation into autologous and compliant living tissue with self-healing capacity may have long-term advantages.

Cost-effectiveness of Mediterranean diet and physical activity in secondary CVD prevention: results from the UCC-SMART cohort study.

AIMS: The efficacy of a healthy lifestyle in secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established and a first-line recommendation in CVD prevention guidelines. The aim of this study was to assess if they are also cost-effective in patients with established CVD. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis (CUA) was performed comparing a combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention to usual care in CVD patients. The CUA had a healthcare perspective and lifetime horizon. Costs and utilities were estimated using a microsimulation on a cohort of 100,000 CVD patients sampled from the UCC-SMART study (N = 8,947, mean age 62 ±8.7 years and 74% male). Cost-effectiveness was expressed as incrementalcost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), incremental net health benefit (INHB) and incremental net monetary benefit (INMB). RESULTS: Mediterranean diet and physical activity yielded 2.0 incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost reductions of €1,236 per person compared to usual care, resulting in an ICER of €-626/QALY (95%CI -1,929 to 2,673). At a willingness-to-pay of €20,000/QALY, INHB was 2.04 (95%CI 0.99-3.58) QALY and INMB was €40,757 (95%CI 19,819-71,605). The interventions remained cost-effective in a wide range of sensitivity analyses, including worst-case scenarios and scenarios with reimbursement for food and physical activity costs. CONCLUSION: In patients with established CVD, a combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention was cost-saving and highly cost-effective compared to usual care. These findings strongly advocate for the incorporation of lifestyle interventions as integral components of care for all CVD patients.

Lifestyle optimization, including physical activity and healthy diet, is a central recommendation for preventing recurrent cardiovascular events. In this study, we assessed if improving physical activity habits and adherence to a heart-healthy Mediterranean diet would also be a cost-effective option. The results were remarkable - following the Mediterranean diet and engaging in physical activity was expected to result in an increase of 2.0 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs, equal to a life year in perfect health) and cost savings. This means that lifestyle optimization in secondary CVD prevention improves population health, while reducing overall health care costs. These findings underscore the importance of implementing lifestyle changes in the care for all individuals with CVD. A health lifestyle is not only effective in improving health but also a prudent financial decision. Key messages  A combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention is expected to result in two additional QALYs and three additional life years free of recurrent cardiovascular events per patient with with established CVDTargeting a healthy lifestyle is expected to lead to costs savings compared to usual care, due to the low costs of the intervention and the high efficacy in preventing recurrent cardiovascular events.Lifestyle optimization in secondary CVD prevention was shown to result in a dominant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €-626/QALY, which strongly advocates for healthy policy targeted at implementing lifestyle interventions in regular care for CVD patients.

Generalisability of trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification in patients with cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: Assessment of generalisability of guideline-informing trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification to real-world patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: Inclusion and exclusion criteria of the Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anticoagulation Strategies (COMPASS), Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management and Avoidance (CHARISMA), Prevention of Cardiovascular events in Patients with Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (PEGASUS-TIMI) and Dual Antiplatelet Therapy (DAPT) study were applied to coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients from Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) to determine real-world eligibility. Eligible and ineligible patients were compared on baseline characteristics, cardiovascular events, major bleeding and mortality. RESULTS: Eligibility ranged from 11%-94% for CAD to 75%-90% for patients with PAD. Cardiovascular, bleeding and mortality risks were higher in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD (rate ratios (RR) 1.98 (95% CI 1.74 to 2.26), 2.02 (95% CI 1.47 to 2.78) and 3.11 (95% CI 2.71 to 3.57), respectively) and CHARISMA-eligible patients (RR 1.51 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.06), 2.25 (95% CI 1.01 to 6.21) and 4.43 (95% CI 2.79 to 7.51), respectively), and lower in COMPASS-eligible patients with PAD (RR 0.45 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.56), 0.29 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.46) and 0.45 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.54), respectively) and DAPT-eligible patients with CAD (RR CVD 0.49 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.69) and mortality 0.67 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.94)) than ineligible patients. After adjustment for trial eligibility criteria, only higher cardiovascular and mortality risks in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD and lower cardiovascular risks in CHARISMA-eligible and DAPT-eligible patients persisted with CAD. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of contemporary CVD patients would be eligible for intensified antithrombotic treatment trials, with mostly similar adjusted event risks to ineligible patients. Trial-based guideline recommendations are largely applicable to real-world patients.

Long-term lifestyle change and risk of mortality and Type 2 diabetes in patients with cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: To quantify the relationship between self-reported, long-term lifestyle changes (smoking, waist circumference, physical activity, and alcohol consumption) and clinical outcomes in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were used from 2011 participants (78% male, age 57 ± 9 years) from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort who returned for a re-assessment visit (SMART2) after ∼10 years. Self-reported lifestyle change was classified as persistently healthy, improved, worsened, or persistently unhealthy. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the relationship between lifestyle changes and the risk of (cardiovascular) mortality and incident Type 2 diabetes (T2D). Fifty-seven per cent of participants was persistently healthy, 17% improved their lifestyle, 8% worsened, and 17% was persistently unhealthy. During a median follow-up time of 6.1 (inter-quartile range 3.6-9.6) years after the SMART2 visit, 285 deaths occurred, and 99 new T2D diagnoses were made. Compared with a persistently unhealthy lifestyle, individuals who maintained a healthy lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.63], cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.38-0.87), and incident T2D (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.28-0.73). Similarly, those who improved their lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74), cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.81), and incident T2D (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.92). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that maintaining or adopting a healthy lifestyle can significantly lower mortality and incident T2D risk in CVD patients. This study emphasizes the importance of ongoing lifestyle optimization in CVD patients, highlighting the potential for positive change regardless of previous lifestyle habits.

In this study, we investigated whether lifestyle changes were related to improved health outcomes in individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We assessed self-reported lifestyle behaviours (smoking, waist circumference, alcohol consumption, and physical activity), at inclusion in the cohort and again ∼10 years later. The results emphasize the importance of making healthy lifestyle choices, even for individuals already diagnosed with CVD, and suggest that it is never too late to improve one's lifestyle.

Editor's Choice - Radiation Dose Reduction During Contralateral Limb Cannulation Using Fiber Optic RealShape Technology in Endovascular Aneurysm Repair.

OBJECTIVE: The increasing number of endovascular procedures has resulted in an increasing radiation burden, particularly for the treatment team. Fiber Optic RealShape (FORS) technology uses laser light instead of fluoroscopy to visualise the endovascular guidewire and catheters. These devices can be used during the navigational part of procedures, such as cannulation of the contralateral limb (CL) in endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). The aim of this study was to describe the effect of using FORS on radiation dose during CL cannulation in standard EVAR. METHODS: This was a non-randomised, retrospective comparison study of prospectively collected, single centre data from FORS guided EVAR compared with a conventional fluoroscopy only guided EVAR cohort. A total of 27 FORS guided cases were matched 1:1 based on sex, age, and body mass index (BMI) with 27 regular (fluoroscopy only) EVARs. This study primarily focused on (1) technical success of FORS and (2) navigation time and radiation dose (cumulative air kerma [CAK], air kerma area product [KAP], and fluoroscopy time [FT]) during cannulation of the CL. In addition, overall procedure time and radiation dose of the complete EVAR procedure were studied. RESULTS: In 22 (81%) of the 27 FORS guided cases the CL was successfully cannulated using FORS. All radiation dose parameters were significantly lower in the FORS group (CAK, p < .001; KAP, p = .009; and FT, p < .001) for an equal navigation time (p = .95). No significant differences were found when comparing outcomes of the complete procedure. CONCLUSION: Use of FORS technology significantly reduces radiation doses during cannulation of the CL in standard EVAR.

Peripheral Artery Disease: Underappreciated Impact and Residual Cardiovascular Risk Despite Revascularization.

This Commentary highlights the under-recognized prevalence and heavy burden of peripheral artery disease (PAD) and its important role as a harbinger of complications of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Although increasing in prevalence globally, PAD is being further accelerated with diabetes, and patients with advanced PAD are at high risk for chronic limb-threatening ischemia. The need for (repeated) revascularization and amputation places a heavy social burden on patients and family, and a heavy financial burden on the health care system, exceeding the cost of coronary artery and cerebrovascular diseases. Clinical trial research in PAD will be enhanced by widely agreed-upon definitions of major adverse cardiovascular events and major adverse limb events. Antithrombotic and lipid-lowering therapies are recommended but underutilized, while the optimal peri-interventional antithrombotic regimen is still under debate. Additional antiinflammatory treatment is currently an unaddressed strategy in the management of patients with PAD, and there is a strong case for the evaluation of widely available antiinflammatory agents such as colchicine.

Artificial intelligence-based predictive models in vascular diseases.

Cardiovascular disease represents a source of major health problems worldwide, and although medical and technical advances have been achieved, they are still associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. Personalized medicine would benefit from novel tools to better predict individual prognosis and outcomes after intervention. Artificial intelligence (AI) has brought new insights to cardiovascular medicine, especially with the use of machine learning techniques that allow the identification of hidden patterns and complex associations in health data without any a priori assumptions. This review provides an overview on the use of artificial intelligence-based prediction models in vascular diseases, specifically focusing on aortic aneurysm, lower extremity arterial disease, and carotid stenosis. Potential benefits include the development of precision medicine in patients with vascular diseases. In addition, the main challenges that remain to be overcome to integrate artificial intelligence-based predictive models in clinical practice are discussed.

Effect of adipose tissue quantity and dysfunction on the risk of cancer in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the role of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction in the risk of cancer in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and to compare this to individuals without T2D. METHODS: Individuals with (n = 1925) and without T2D (n = 10,204) were included from the UCC-SMART cohort. Incident cancer diagnoses were obtained by linkage with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Metabolic dysfunction was defined as ≥ 3 adapted NCEP ATP-III metabolic syndrome criteria. The effects of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction on cancer were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.3 years (IQR 4.2-13.1), 1740 individuals were diagnosed with cancer. Incidence rates of total cancer were 19.3 and 15.5/1000 person-years for individuals with and without T2D, respectively. In individuals without T2D, a higher waist circumference was associated with an increased risk of colorectal (per standard deviation: HR 1.23; 95%CI 1.03-1.46), urinary tract (HR 1.28; 95%CI 1.05-1.56) and total cancer (HR 1.06; 95%CI 1.02-1.13). Metabolic dysfunction was related to an increased risk of colorectal (HR 1.35; 95%CI 1.01-1.82), lung (HR 1.37; 95%CI 1.07-1.75) and total cancer (HR 1.13; 95%CI 1.01-1.25) in individuals without T2D. In individuals with T2D, no significant associations were found. CONCLUSION: Incidence rates of cancer are higher among individuals with T2D. However, higher waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction are only associated with an increased cancer risk in patients without T2D. These findings provide novel insights into the role of metabolic dysfunction in the occurrence of cancer.

Individual lifetime benefit from low-dose colchicine in patients with chronic coronary artery disease.

AIMS: Low-dose colchicine reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), but absolute benefits may vary between individuals. This study aimed to assess the range of individual absolute benefits from low-dose colchicine according to patient risk profile. METHODS AND RESULTS: The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline-recommended SMART-REACH model was combined with the relative treatment effect of low-dose colchicine and applied to patients with CAD from the Low-Dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial and the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART) study (n = 10 830). Individual treatment benefits were expressed as 10-year absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death (MACE), and MACE-free life-years gained. Predictions were also performed for MACE plus coronary revascularization (MACE+), using a new lifetime model derived in the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Colchicine was compared with other ESC guideline-recommended intensified (Step 2) prevention strategies, i.e. LDL cholesterol (LDL-c) reduction to 1.4 mmol/L and systolic blood pressure (SBP) reduction to 130 mmHg. The generalizability to other populations was assessed in patients with CAD from REACH North America and Western Europe (n = 25 812). The median 10-year ARR from low-dose colchicine was 4.6% [interquartile range (IQR) 3.6-6.0%] for MACE and 8.6% (IQR 7.6-9.8%) for MACE+. Lifetime benefit was 2.0 (IQR 1.6-2.5) MACE-free years, and 3.4 (IQR 2.6-4.2) MACE+-free life-years gained. For LDL-c and SBP reduction, respectively, the median 10-year ARR for MACE was 3.0% (IQR 1.5-5.1%) and 1.7% (IQR 0.0-5.7%), and the lifetime benefit was 1.2 (IQR 0.6-2.1) and 0.7 (IQR 0.0-2.3) MACE-free life-years gained. Similar results were obtained for MACE+ and in American and European patients from REACH. CONCLUSION: The absolute benefits of low-dose colchicine vary between individual patients with chronic CAD. They may be expected to be of at least similar magnitude to those of intensified LDL-c and SBP reduction in a majority of patients already on conventional lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering therapy.

The long-term benefits of treatment with low-dose colchicine were estimated for 36 642 individuals with coronary heart disease, and compared with those of lipid- and blood pressure­lowering therapy. On average, low-dose colchicine was estimated to lower the risk of cardiovascular disease in the next 10 years from 17.8 to 13.2% (a reduction of 4.6% points) and to afford 2.0 additional years of life without cardiovascular disease.Low-dose colchicine was estimated to be the most effective treatment in 49%, intensive blood pressure­lowering therapy in 28%, and intensive lipid-lowering therapy in 23% of patients.

C-Reactive Protein and Risk of Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at high risk of incident heart failure (HF), which may in part reflect the impact of systemic inflammation. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to determine the association between C-reactive protein (CRP) and incident HF in patients with established CVD. METHODS: Patients from the prospective UCC-SMART (Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease) cohort with established CVD, but without prevalent HF were included (n = 8,089). Incident HF was defined as a first hospitalization for HF. The association between baseline CRP and incident HF was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established risk factors (ie, age, sex, myocardial infarction, smoking, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and kidney function). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.7 years (IQR 5.4-14.1 years), 810 incident HF cases were observed (incidence rate 1.01/100 person-years). Higher CRP was independently associated with an increased risk of incident HF: HR per 1 mg/L: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.13), and for last vs first CRP quartile: 2.22 (95% CI: 1.76-2.79). The association was significant for both HF with reduced (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.14) and preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.07-1.18) (P for difference = 0.137). Additional adjustment for medication use and interim myocardial infarction did not attenuate the association, and the association remained consistent beyond 15 years after the CRP measurement. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with established CVD, CRP is an independent risk marker of incident HF. These data support ongoing trial efforts to assess whether anti-inflammatory agents can reduce the burden of HF.