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1.
Clin Trials ; : 17407745241234652, 2024 Apr 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38570906

ABSTRACT

With the advent of targeted agents and immunological therapies, the medical research community has become increasingly aware that conventional methods for determining the best dose or schedule of a new agent are inadequate. It has been well established that conventional phase I designs cannot reliably identify safe and effective doses. This problem applies, generally, for cytotoxic agents, radiation therapy, targeted agents, and immunotherapies. To address this, the US Food and Drug Administration's Oncology Center of Excellence initiated Project Optimus, with the goal "to reform the dose optimization and dose selection paradigm in oncology drug development." As a response to Project Optimus, the articles in this special issue of Clinical Trials review recent advances in methods for choosing the dose or schedule of a new agent with an overall objective of informing clinical trialists of these innovative designs. This introductory article briefly reviews problems with conventional methods, the regulatory changes that encourage better dose optimization designs, and provides brief summaries of the articles that follow in this special issue.

2.
Biometrics ; 80(1)2024 Jan 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38364811

ABSTRACT

A generalized phase 1-2-3 design, Gen 1-2-3, that includes all phases of clinical treatment evaluation is proposed. The design extends and modifies the design of Chapple and Thall (2019), denoted by CT. Both designs begin with a phase 1-2 trial including dose acceptability and optimality criteria, and both select an optimal dose for phase 3. The Gen 1-2-3 design has the following key differences. In stage 1, it uses phase 1-2 criteria to identify a set of candidate doses rather than 1 dose. In stage 2, which is intermediate between phase 1-2 and phase 3, it randomizes additional patients fairly among the candidate doses and an active control treatment arm and uses survival time data from both stage 1 and stage 2 patients to select an optimal dose. It then makes a Go/No Go decision of whether or not to conduct phase 3 based on the predictive probability that the selected optimal dose will provide a specified substantive improvement in survival time over the control. A simulation study shows that the Gen 1-2-3 design has desirable operating characteristics compared to the CT design and 2 conventional designs.


Subject(s)
Research Design , Humans , Clinical Protocols , Computer Simulation , Dose-Response Relationship, Drug , Probability , Clinical Trials, Phase I as Topic , Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic , Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic
3.
Nat Med ; 30(3): 772-784, 2024 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38238616

ABSTRACT

There is a pressing need for allogeneic chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-immune cell therapies that are safe, effective and affordable. We conducted a phase 1/2 trial of cord blood-derived natural killer (NK) cells expressing anti-CD19 chimeric antigen receptor and interleukin-15 (CAR19/IL-15) in 37 patients with CD19+ B cell malignancies. The primary objectives were safety and efficacy, defined as day 30 overall response (OR). Secondary objectives included day 100 response, progression-free survival, overall survival and CAR19/IL-15 NK cell persistence. No notable toxicities such as cytokine release syndrome, neurotoxicity or graft-versus-host disease were observed. The day 30 and day 100 OR rates were 48.6% for both. The 1-year overall survival and progression-free survival were 68% and 32%, respectively. Patients who achieved OR had higher levels and longer persistence of CAR-NK cells. Receiving CAR-NK cells from a cord blood unit (CBU) with nucleated red blood cells ≤ 8 × 107 and a collection-to-cryopreservation time ≤ 24 h was the most significant predictor for superior outcome. NK cells from these optimal CBUs were highly functional and enriched in effector-related genes. In contrast, NK cells from suboptimal CBUs had upregulation of inflammation, hypoxia and cellular stress programs. Finally, using multiple mouse models, we confirmed the superior antitumor activity of CAR/IL-15 NK cells from optimal CBUs in vivo. These findings uncover new features of CAR-NK cell biology and underscore the importance of donor selection for allogeneic cell therapies. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03056339 .


Subject(s)
Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation , Neoplasms , Receptors, Chimeric Antigen , Animals , Mice , Humans , Receptors, Chimeric Antigen/genetics , Interleukin-15 , Killer Cells, Natural , Immunotherapy, Adoptive/adverse effects , Antigens, CD19 , Adaptor Proteins, Signal Transducing
4.
Transplant Cell Ther ; 30(2): 203.e1-203.e9, 2024 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38042257

ABSTRACT

Relapse is the major cause of failure of high-dose chemotherapy (HDC) with autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) for B cell non-Hodgkin lymphomas (B-NHL). Improvement strategies include use in combination with effective immunotherapies. We hypothesized that the combination of rituximab/HDC/ASCT with expanded cord blood (CB)-derived natural killer (NK) cells is safe and active in B-NHL. Patients with B-NHL age 15 to 70 years and appropriate ASCT candidates were eligible for the study. The CB units were selected without considering HLA match with the recipient. The CB NK cells were expanded from day -19 to day -5. Treatment included rituximab on days -13 and -7, BEAM (carmustine/etoposide/cytarabine/melphalan) on days -13 to -7, lenalidomide on days -7 to -2, CB NK infusion (108/kg) on day -5, and ASCT (day 0). The primary endpoint was 30-day treatment-related mortality (TRM); secondary endpoints included relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and persistence of CB NK cells. We enrolled 20 patients. CB NK cells were expanded a median of 1552-fold with >98% purity and >96% viability. We saw no adverse events attributable to the CB NK cells and 0% 30-day TRM. At median follow-up of 47 months, the RFS and OS rates were 53% and 74%, respectively. CB NK cells were detectable in blood for 2 weeks, independent of HLA-mismatch status. CD16 expression in donor NK cells was correlated favorably with outcome, and homozygosity for the high-affinity CD16 variant (158 V/V) in CB, but not recipient, NK cells was correlated with better outcomes. Our data indicate that the combination of expanded and highly purified CB-derived NK cells with HDC/ASCT for B-NHL is safe. CD16 expression in donor NK cells, particularly if homozygous for the high-affinity CD16 variant, was correlated with better outcomes.


Subject(s)
Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation , Lymphoma, B-Cell , Humans , Adolescent , Young Adult , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Rituximab/therapeutic use , Fetal Blood , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/adverse effects , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local/drug therapy , Transplantation, Autologous , Lymphoma, B-Cell/drug therapy , Lymphoma, B-Cell/etiology , Killer Cells, Natural
5.
Lancet Oncol ; 24(12): 1387-1398, 2023 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38039992

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) has the potential to ablate localised pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Selective dismutase mimetics sensitise tumours while reducing normal tissue toxicity. This trial was designed to establish the efficacy and toxicity afforded by the selective dismutase mimetic avasopasem manganese when combined with ablative SBRT for localised pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: In this adaptive, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1b/2 trial, patients aged 18 years or older with borderline resectable or locally advanced pancreatic cancer who had received at least 3 months of chemotherapy and had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2 were enrolled at six academic sites in the USA. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1), with block randomisation (block sizes of 6-12) with a maximum of 24 patients per group, to receive daily avasopasem (90 mg) or placebo intravenously directly before (ie, within 180 min) SBRT (50, 55, or 60 Gy in five fractions, adaptively assigned in real time by Bayesian estimates of 90-day safety and efficacy). Patients and physicians were masked to treatment group allocation, but not to SBRT dose. The primary objective was to find the optimal dose of SBRT with avasopasem or placebo as determined by the late onset EffTox method. All analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03340974, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Jan 25, 2018, and April 29, 2020, 47 patients were screened, of whom 42 were enrolled (median age was 71 years [IQR 63-75], 23 [55%] were male, 19 [45%] were female, 37 [88%] were White, three [7%] were Black, and one [2%] each were unknown or other races) and randomly assigned to avasopasem (n=24) or placebo (n=18); the placebo group was terminated early after failing to meet prespecified efficacy parameters. At data cutoff (June 28, 2021), the avasopasem group satisfied boundaries for both efficacy and toxicity. Late onset EffTox efficacy response was observed in 16 (89%) of 18 patients at 50 Gy and six (100%) of six patients at 55 Gy in the avasopasem group, and was observed in three (50%) of six patients at 50 Gy and nine (75%) of 12 patients at 55 Gy in the placebo group, and the Bayesian model recommended 50 Gy or 55 Gy in five fractions with avasopasem for further study. Serious adverse events of any cause were reported in three (17%) of 18 patients in the placebo group and six (25%) of 24 in the avasopasem group. In the placebo group, grade 3 adverse events within 90 days of SBRT were abdominal pain, acute cholangitis, pyrexia, increased blood lactic acid, and increased lipase (one [6%] each); no grade 4 events occurred. In the avasopasem group, grade 3-4 adverse events within 90 days of SBRT were acute kidney injury, increased blood alkaline phosphatase, haematoma, colitis, gastric obstruction, lung infection, abdominal abscess, post-surgical atrial fibrillation, and pneumonia leading to respiratory failure (one [4%] each).There were no treatment-related deaths but one late death in the avasopasem group due to sepsis in the setting of duodenal obstruction after off-study treatment was reported as potentially related to SBRT. INTERPRETATION: SBRT that uses 50 or 55 Gy in five fractions can be considered for patients with localised pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The addition of avasopasem might further enhance disease outcomes. A larger phase 2 trial (GRECO-2, NCT04698915) is underway to validate these results. FUNDING: Galera Therapeutics.


Subject(s)
Adenocarcinoma , Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal , Pancreatic Neoplasms , Radiosurgery , Humans , Male , Female , Aged , Adenocarcinoma/radiotherapy , Adenocarcinoma/drug therapy , Pancreatic Neoplasms/radiotherapy , Pancreatic Neoplasms/drug therapy , Radiosurgery/adverse effects , Bayes Theorem , Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal/radiotherapy , Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal/drug therapy , Double-Blind Method , Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use
6.
Clin Trials ; : 17407745231214750, 2023 Dec 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38111231

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Identifying optimal doses in early-phase clinical trials is critically important. Therapies administered at doses that are either unsafe or biologically ineffective are unlikely to be successful in subsequent clinical trials or to obtain regulatory approval. Identifying appropriate doses for new agents is a complex process that involves balancing the risks and benefits of outcomes such as biological efficacy, toxicity, and patient quality of life. PURPOSE: While conventional phase I trials rely solely on toxicity to determine doses, phase I-II trials explicitly account for both efficacy and toxicity, which enables them to identify doses that provide the most favorable risk-benefit trade-offs. It is also important to account for patient covariates, since one-size-fits-all treatment decisions are likely to be suboptimal within subgroups determined by prognostic variables or biomarkers. Notably, the selection of estimands can influence our conclusions based on the prognostic subgroup studied. For example, assuming monotonicity of the probability of response, higher treatment doses may yield more pronounced efficacy in favorable prognosis compared to poor prognosis subgroups when the estimand is mean or median survival. Conversely, when the estimand is the 3-month survival probability, higher treatment doses produce more pronounced efficacy in poor prognosis compared to favorable prognosis subgroups. METHODS AND CONCLUSIONS: Herein, we first describe why it is essential to consider clinical practice when designing a clinical trial and outline a stepwise process for doing this. We then review a precision phase I-II design based on utilities tailored to prognostic subgroups that characterize efficacy-toxicity risk-benefit trade-offs. The design chooses each patient's dose to optimize their expected utility and allows patients in different prognostic subgroups to have different optimal doses. We illustrate the design with a dose-finding trial of a new therapeutic agent for metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

7.
Cancers (Basel) ; 15(19)2023 Sep 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37835368

ABSTRACT

This article describes rationales and limitations for making inferences based on data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We argue that obtaining a representative random sample from a patient population is impossible for a clinical trial because patients are accrued sequentially over time and thus comprise a convenience sample, subject only to protocol entry criteria. Consequently, the trial's sample is unlikely to represent a definable patient population. We use causal diagrams to illustrate the difference between random allocation of interventions within a clinical trial sample and true simple or stratified random sampling, as executed in surveys. We argue that group-specific statistics, such as a median survival time estimate for a treatment arm in an RCT, have limited meaning as estimates of larger patient population parameters. In contrast, random allocation between interventions facilitates comparative causal inferences about between-treatment effects, such as hazard ratios or differences between probabilities of response. Comparative inferences also require the assumption of transportability from a clinical trial's convenience sample to a targeted patient population. We focus on the consequences and limitations of randomization procedures in order to clarify the distinctions between pairs of complementary concepts of fundamental importance to data science and RCT interpretation. These include internal and external validity, generalizability and transportability, uncertainty and variability, representativeness and inclusiveness, blocking and stratification, relevance and robustness, forward and reverse causal inference, intention to treat and per protocol analyses, and potential outcomes and counterfactuals.

8.
Clin Cancer Res ; 29(22): 4549-4554, 2023 11 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37725573

ABSTRACT

Conventional designs for choosing a dose for a new therapy may select doses that are unsafe or ineffective and fail to optimize progression-free survival time, overall survival time, or response/remission duration. We explain and illustrate limitations of conventional dose-finding designs and make four recommendations to address these problems. When feasible, a dose-finding design should account for long-term outcomes, include screening rules that drop unsafe or ineffective doses, enroll an adequate sample size, and randomize patients among doses. As illustrations, we review three designs that include one or more of these features. The first illustration is a trial that randomized patients among two cell therapy doses and standard of care in a setting where it was assumed on biological grounds that dose toxicity and dose-response curves did not necessarily increase with cell dose. The second design generalizes phase I-II by first identifying a set of candidate doses, rather than one dose, randomizing additional patients among the candidates, and selecting an optimal dose to maximize progression-free survival over a longer follow-up period. The third design combines a phase I-II trial and a group sequential randomized phase III trial by using survival time data available after the first stage of phase III to reoptimize the dose selected in phase I-II. By incorporating one or more of the recommended features, these designs improve the likelihood that a selected dose or schedule will be optimal, and thus will benefit future patients and obtain regulatory approval.


Subject(s)
Research Design , Humans , Clinical Trials as Topic , Probability , Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
9.
J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat ; 72(3): 718-738, 2023 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37325776

ABSTRACT

A Bayesian feature allocation model (FAM) is presented for identifying cell subpopulations based on multiple samples of cell surface or intracellular marker expression level data obtained by cytometry by time of flight (CyTOF). Cell subpopulations are characterized by differences in marker expression patterns, and cells are clustered into subpopulations based on their observed expression levels. A model-based method is used to construct cell clusters within each sample by modeling subpopulations as latent features, using a finite Indian buffet process. Non-ignorable missing data due to technical artifacts in mass cytometry instruments are accounted for by defining a static missingship mechanism. In contrast with conventional cell clustering methods, which cluster observed marker expression levels separately for each sample, the FAM-based method can be applied simultaneously to multiple samples, and also identify important cell subpopulations likely to be otherwise missed. The proposed FAM-based method is applied to jointly analyse three CyTOF datasets to study natural killer (NK) cells. Because the subpopulations identified by the FAM may define novel NK cell subsets, this statistical analysis may provide useful information about the biology of NK cells and their potential role in cancer immunotherapy which may lead, in turn, to development of improved NK cell therapies.

10.
Clin Trials ; 20(5): 486-496, 2023 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37313712

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard for evaluating experimental treatments but often require large sample sizes. Single-arm trials require smaller sample sizes but are subject to bias when using historical control data for comparative inferences. This article presents a Bayesian adaptive synthetic-control design that exploits historical control data to create a hybrid of a single-arm trial and a randomized controlled trial. METHODS: The Bayesian adaptive synthetic control design has two stages. In stage 1, a prespecified number of patients are enrolled in a single arm given the experimental treatment. Based on the stage 1 data, applying propensity score matching and Bayesian posterior prediction methods, the usefulness of the historical control data for identifying a pseudo sample of matched synthetic-control patients for making comparative inferences is evaluated. If a sufficient number of synthetic controls can be identified, the single-arm trial is continued. If not, the trial is switched to a randomized controlled trial. The performance of The Bayesian adaptive synthetic control design is evaluated by computer simulation. RESULTS: The Bayesian adaptive synthetic control design achieves power and unbiasedness similar to a randomized controlled trial but on average requires a much smaller sample size, provided that the historical control data patients are sufficiently comparable to the trial patients so that a good number of matched controls can be identified in the historical control data. Compared to a single-arm trial, The Bayesian adaptive synthetic control design yields much higher power and much smaller bias. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian adaptive synthetic-control design provides a useful tool for exploiting historical control data to improve the efficiency of single-arm phase II clinical trials, while addressing the problem of bias when comparing trial results to historical control data. The proposed design achieves power similar to a randomized controlled trial but may require a substantially smaller sample size.


Subject(s)
Research Design , Humans , Bayes Theorem , Bias , Computer Simulation , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Sample Size , Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic
11.
Pharm Stat ; 22(4): 692-706, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37038957

ABSTRACT

Designs for early phase dose finding clinical trials typically are either phase I based on toxicity, or phase I-II based on toxicity and efficacy. These designs rely on the implicit assumption that the dose of an experimental agent chosen using these short-term outcomes will maximize the agent's long-term therapeutic success rate. In many clinical settings, this assumption is not true. A dose selected in an early phase oncology trial may give suboptimal progression-free survival or overall survival time, often due to a high rate of relapse following response. To address this problem, a new family of Bayesian generalized phase I-II designs is proposed. First, a conventional phase I-II design based on short-term outcomes is used to identify a set of candidate doses, rather than selecting one dose. Additional patients then are randomized among the candidates, patients are followed for a predefined longer time period, and a final dose is selected to maximize the long-term therapeutic success rate, defined in terms of duration of response. Dose-specific sample sizes in the randomization are determined adaptively to obtain a desired level of selection reliability. The design was motivated by a phase I-II trial to find an optimal dose of natural killer cells as targeted immunotherapy for recurrent or treatment-resistant B-cell hematologic malignancies. A simulation study shows that, under a range of scenarios in the context of this trial, the proposed design has much better performance than two conventional phase I-II designs.


Subject(s)
Neoplasms , Research Design , Humans , Bayes Theorem , Reproducibility of Results , Computer Simulation , Neoplasms/drug therapy , Dose-Response Relationship, Drug , Maximum Tolerated Dose
13.
Pract Radiat Oncol ; 13(3): 231-238, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36596356

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Dose constraints for reirradiation of recurrent primary brain tumors are not well-established. This study was conducted to prospectively evaluate composite dose constraints for conventionally fractionated brain reirradiation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A single-institution, prospective study of adults with previously irradiated, recurrent brain tumors was performed. For 95% of patients, electronic dosimetry records from the first course of radiation (RT1) were obtained and deformed onto the simulation computed tomography for the second course of radiation (RT2). Conventionally fractionated treatment plans for RT2 were developed that met protocol-assigned dose constraints for RT2 alone and the composite dose of RT1 + RT2. Prospective composite dose constraints were based on histology, interval since RT1, and concurrent bevacizumab. Patients were followed with magnetic resonance imaging including spectroscopy and perfusion studies. Primary endpoint was the rate of symptomatic brain necrosis at 6 months after RT2. RESULTS: Patients were enrolled from March 2017 to May 2018; 20 were evaluable. Eighteen had glioma, 1 had atypical choroid plexus papilloma, and 1 had hemangiopericytoma. Nineteen patients were treated with volumetric modulated arc therapy, and one was treated with protons. Median RT1 dose was 57 Gy (range, 50-60 Gy). Median RT1-RT2 interval was 49 months (range, 9-141 months). Median RT2 dose was 42.4 Gy (range, 36-60 Gy). Median planning target volume was 186 cc (range, 8-468 cc). Nineteen of 20 patients (95%) were free of grade 3+ central nervous system necrosis. One patient had grade 3+ necrosis 2 months after RT2; the patient recovered fully and lived another 18 months until dying of disease progression. Median overall survival from RT2 start for all patients was 13.3 months (95% credible interval, 6.3-20.7); for patients with glioblastoma, 11.5 months (95% credible interval, 6.1-20.1). CONCLUSIONS: Brain reirradiation can be safely performed with conventionally fractionated regimens tailored to previous dose distributions. The prospective composite dose constraints described here are a starting point for future studies of conventionally fractionated reirradiation.


Subject(s)
Brain Neoplasms , Glioblastoma , Glioma , Re-Irradiation , Humans , Adult , Prospective Studies , Glioma/pathology , Glioblastoma/radiotherapy , Glioblastoma/pathology , Brain Neoplasms/pathology , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local/radiotherapy
14.
Pharm Stat ; 22(1): 34-44, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35851545

ABSTRACT

A robust Bayesian design is presented for a single-arm phase II trial with an early stopping rule to monitor a time to event endpoint. The assumed model is a piecewise exponential distribution with non-informative gamma priors on the hazard parameters in subintervals of a fixed follow up interval. As an additional comparator, we also define and evaluate a version of the design based on an assumed Weibull distribution. Except for the assumed models, the piecewise exponential and Weibull model based designs are identical to an established design that assumes an exponential event time distribution with an inverse gamma prior on the mean event time. The three designs are compared by simulation under several log-logistic and Weibull distributions having different shape parameters, and for different monitoring schedules. The simulations show that, compared to the exponential inverse gamma model based design, the piecewise exponential design has substantially better performance, with much higher probabilities of correctly stopping the trial early, and shorter and less variable trial duration, when the assumed median event time is unacceptably low. Compared to the Weibull model based design, the piecewise exponential design does a much better job of maintaining small incorrect stopping probabilities in cases where the true median survival time is desirably large.


Subject(s)
Research Design , Humans , Bayes Theorem , Computer Simulation , Probability
15.
Biometrics ; 79(3): 2458-2473, 2023 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35974457

ABSTRACT

A Bayesian design is proposed for randomized phase II clinical trials that screen multiple experimental treatments compared to an active control based on ordinal categorical toxicity and response. The underlying model and design account for patient heterogeneity characterized by ordered prognostic subgroups. All decision criteria are subgroup specific, including interim rules for dropping unsafe or ineffective treatments, and criteria for selecting optimal treatments at the end of the trial. The design requires an elicited utility function of the two outcomes that varies with the subgroups. Final treatment selections are based on posterior mean utilities. The methodology is illustrated by a trial of targeted agents for metastatic renal cancer, which motivated the design methodology. In the context of this application, the design is evaluated by computer simulation, including comparison to three designs that conduct separate trials within subgroups, or conduct one trial while ignoring subgroups, or base treatment selection on estimated response rates while ignoring toxicity.


Subject(s)
Antineoplastic Agents , Research Design , Humans , Antineoplastic Agents/adverse effects , Bayes Theorem , Computer Simulation , Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
16.
Ann Appl Stat ; 16(4): 2481-2504, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36329718

ABSTRACT

We propose a curve-free random-effects meta-analysis approach to combining data from multiple phase I clinical trials to identify an optimal dose. Our method accounts for between-study heterogeneity that may stem from different study designs, patient populations, or tumor types. We also develop a meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) method based on a power prior that incorporates data from multiple historical studies into the design and conduct of a new phase I trial. Performances of the proposed methods for data analysis and trial design are evaluated by extensive simulation studies. The proposed random-effects meta-analysis method provides more reliable dose selection than comparators that rely on parametric assumptions. The MAP-based dose-finding designs are generally more efficient than those that do not borrow information, especially when the current and historical studies are similar. The proposed methodologies are illustrated by a meta-analysis of five historical phase I studies of Sorafenib, and design of a new phase I trial.

17.
Cancers (Basel) ; 14(16)2022 Aug 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36010916

ABSTRACT

We discuss how causal diagrams can be used by clinicians to make better individualized treatment decisions. Causal diagrams can distinguish between settings where clinical decisions can rely on a conventional additive regression model fit to data from a historical randomized clinical trial (RCT) to estimate treatment effects and settings where a different approach is needed. This may be because a new patient does not meet the RCT's entry criteria, or a treatment's effect is modified by biomarkers or other variables that act as mediators between treatment and outcome. In some settings, the problem can be addressed simply by including treatment-covariate interaction terms in the statistical regression model used to analyze the RCT dataset. However, if the RCT entry criteria exclude a new patient seen in the clinic, it may be necessary to combine the RCT data with external data from other RCTs, single-arm trials, or preclinical experiments evaluating biological treatment effects. For example, external data may show that treatment effects differ between histological subgroups not recorded in an RCT. A causal diagram may be used to decide whether external observational or experimental data should be obtained and combined with RCT data to compute statistical estimates for making individualized treatment decisions. We use adjuvant treatment of renal cell carcinoma as our motivating example to illustrate how to construct causal diagrams and apply them to guide clinical decisions.

18.
Bone Marrow Transplant ; 57(8): 1295-1303, 2022 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35610308

ABSTRACT

Pretransplant conditioning with Fludarabine (Flu)-Busulfan (Bu) is safe, but clofarabine (Clo) has improved antileukemic activity. Hypothesis: Flu+Clo-Bu (FCB) yields superior progression-free survival (PFS) after allogeneic transplantation. We randomized 250 AML/MDS patients aged 3-70, Karnofsky Score ≥80, with matched donors, to FCB (n = 120) or Flu-Bu (n = 130), stratifying complete remission (CR) vs. No CR, (NCR). HCT-CI scores varied, from 0 to 10. All evaluable patients engrafted. Median follow-up was 66 months (interquartile range: 58-80). Three-year relapse incidence (RI), 25% with FCB, vs. 39% with Flu-Bu (p = 0.018), offset by higher non-relapse mortality, 22.6% (95%CI: 16-30.2%) vs. 12.3% (95%CI: 6.5-19%). Three-year PFS was 52% (95%CI: 44-62%) (FCB), vs. 48% (95%CI: 41-58%) (Flu-Bu). FCB benefited CR patients less, NCR patients age ≤ 60 had 3-year 34% RI (95%CI: 19-49%) (FCB) vs. 56% (95%CI: 38-70%) after Flu-Bu (p = 0.037). NCR patients >60 years had 3-year RI 10.0% (FCB), vs. 56.0%, after Flu-Bu (p = 0.003). Bayesian regression analysis including treatment-covariate interactions showed FCB superiority in NCR patients with low HCT-CI (0-2). Serious adverse event profiles were similar for the regimens. Conditioning with FCB did not improve PFS overall, but improved disease control in NCR patients, mandating confirmatory trials. Remission status and HCT-CI should be considered when using FCB.


Subject(s)
Graft vs Host Disease , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute , Neoplasms, Second Primary , Bayes Theorem , Busulfan/therapeutic use , Clofarabine , Graft vs Host Disease/etiology , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/adverse effects , Humans , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/complications , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/therapy , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local , Transplantation Conditioning/adverse effects , Vidarabine/analogs & derivatives , Vidarabine/therapeutic use
19.
Transplant Cell Ther ; 28(8): 501.e1-501.e7, 2022 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35618218

ABSTRACT

Conditioning regimens play a major role in determining disease outcomes following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). The use of i.v. busulfan (Bu) as part of conditioning chemotherapy has been shown to be effective in controlling disease relapse; however, disease relapse remains a major cause of death following allo-HSCT. This study was conducted to determine the long-term outcomes of vorinostat with i.v. Bu plus dual nucleoside analogs clofarabine (Clo) and fludarabine (Flu) in the conditioning regimen for patients undergoing allo-HSCT. This was a rapid dose escalation phase I/II study designed to determine whether the addition of vorinostat would improve the efficacy of standard i.v. Bu/Flu/Clo conditioning regimen. This report presents the long-term disease outcomes of this combination in 68 patients with high-risk leukemia, including 31 (46%) with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and 37 (54%) with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Fifty-eight patients (85%) were in morphologic complete remission at time of transplantation, and 38 (56%) received a matched unrelated donor graft. Over the median follow-up of 37.6 months, 29 of the 68 patients died (43%), and the nonrelapse mortality (NRM) rate was 22% (n = 15). The median overall survival and median NRM were not reached. Nineteen patients (28%) experienced disease progression. The median progression-free survival was 36.8 months. Thirty-seven patients (57%) developed grade II-IV acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), and 20 patients (31%) developed chronic GVHD. Our results suggest a lack of benefit from adding a short course of vorinostat to i.v. Bu/Flu/Clo conditioning regimens for leukemia patients undergoing allo- HSCT.


Subject(s)
Graft vs Host Disease , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute , Acute Disease , Busulfan/therapeutic use , Clofarabine/therapeutic use , Drug Therapy, Combination , Graft vs Host Disease/prevention & control , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/adverse effects , Humans , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/therapy , Recurrence , Vidarabine/analogs & derivatives , Vorinostat/therapeutic use
20.
Sci Transl Med ; 14(641): eabm6420, 2022 04 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35442707

ABSTRACT

The accumulation of immune-suppressive myeloid cells is a critical determinant of resistance to anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1) therapy in advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). In preclinical models, the tyrosine kinase inhibitor sitravatinib enhanced responses to anti-PD-1 therapy by modulating immune-suppressive myeloid cells. We conducted a phase 1-2 trial to choose an optimal sitravatinib dose combined with a fixed dose of nivolumab in 42 immunotherapy-naïve patients with ccRCC refractory to prior antiangiogenic therapies. The combination demonstrated no unexpected toxicities and achieved an objective response rate of 35.7% and a median progression-free survival of 11.7 months, with 80.1% of patients alive after a median follow-up of 18.7 months. Baseline peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio correlated with response to sitravatinib and nivolumab. Patients with liver metastases showed durable responses comparable to patients without liver metastases. In addition, correlative studies demonstrated reduction of immune-suppressive myeloid cells in the periphery and tumor microenvironment following sitravatinib treatment. This study provides a rationally designed combinatorial strategy to improve outcomes of anti-PD-1 therapy in advanced ccRCC.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Renal Cell , Kidney Neoplasms , Liver Neoplasms , Angiogenesis Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Anilides , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/drug therapy , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/pathology , Female , Humans , Kidney Neoplasms/drug therapy , Kidney Neoplasms/pathology , Liver Neoplasms/drug therapy , Male , Nivolumab/therapeutic use , Pyridines , Tumor Microenvironment
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