Designing More Informative Multiple-Driver Experiments.

For decades, multiple-driver/stressor research has examined interactions among drivers that will undergo large changes in the future: temperature, pH, nutrients, oxygen, pathogens, and more. However, the most commonly used experimental designs-present-versus-future and ANOVA-fail to contribute to general understanding or predictive power. Linking experimental design to process-based mathematical models would help us predict how ecosystems will behave in novel environmental conditions. We review a range of experimental designs and assess the best experimental path toward a predictive ecology. Full factorial response surface, fractional factorial, quadratic response surface, custom, space-filling, and especially optimal and sequential/adaptive designs can help us achieve more valuable scientific goals. Experiments using these designs are challenging to perform with long-lived organisms or at the community and ecosystem levels. But they remain our most promising path toward linking experiments and theory in multiple-driver research and making accurate, useful predictions.

SUSTAINED BIWEEKLY AFLIBERCEPT FOR REFRACTORY NEOVASCULAR AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION: The Prospective TRISTAR Study.

PURPOSE: To assess the safety and efficacy of biweekly (every 2 weeks) intravitreal aflibercept injections (IAI) 2 mg in eyes with refractory neovascular age-related macular degeneration (NVAMD). METHODS: A prospective, single-arm, interventional study was conducted. Eyes with refractory NVAMD received six biweekly IAIs through week 12, followed by a 4-week treatment pause until week 16. Eyes with residual subretinal fluid (SRF) at week 16 were randomized 1:1 to either four additional biweekly IAIs or to 4-week (q4W) IAI dosing through week 24. All eyes were subsequently treated q4W through week 52. RESULTS: Enrolled eyes (n = 22) had persistent SRF despite a mean of 11.8 injections over the prior 12 months. One patient developed endophthalmitis at week 12. There were no additional drug/procedure-related adverse events. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) improved significantly from baseline to week 14 (2.52 letters, P < 0.001). The mean central subfield thickness (CST) was also significantly improved at week 14 (-31.9 µ m, P < 0.001) with eight of 22 eyes achieving complete SRF resolution. Only two of eight eyes remained free of SRF at week 16, with a corresponding increase in mean CST of 26.7 µ m compared with week 14. By week 52, improvements in BCVA and CST were lost. CONCLUSION: In patients with refractory NVAMD-related SRF, sustained biweekly IAIs resulted in significant functional and anatomical improvements during biweekly dosing. These gains, however, were lost on return to monthly dosing. These findings suggest that efforts to reduce refractory SRF in NVAMD with biweekly dosing may provide added benefit compared with standard of care treatment if biweekly dosing is sustained.

A Comparison of Peel-Induced Maculopathy Following ILM Peeling Using a Microvacuum Pick Versus Forceps.

OBJECTIVE: To compare peel-induced maculopathy (PIM) using surgical forceps versus the microvacuum pick (MVP). METHODS: Consecutive eyes undergoing internal limiting membrane (ILM) peeling using either the MVP or forceps were assessed. En face optical coherence tomography (OCT) images at the level of the nerve fiber layer were generated for 6-month postoperative visit. The percentage of the imaged area showing PIM was termed the PIM index. PIM severity was additionally measured using a qualitative PIM severity scale. RESULTS: Seventy-four consecutive eyes underwent ILM peeling with either the MVP (36/74; 49%) or forceps (38/74; 51%). At month-6 postoperatively, the mean PIM index for forceps was 7.7% vs 4.7% for the MVP (P < 0.001, R2 = 0.15). At 6 months, 26/38 eyes (68.5%) in the forceps group had either moderate or severe PIM compared to 12/36 eyes (33.3%) in the MVP group (P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: ILM peeling with the MVP resulted in lower PIM severity compared to forceps. [Ophthalmic Surg Lasers Imaging Retina 2023;54:37-42.].

The need for unrealistic experiments in global change biology.

Climate change is an existential threat, and our ability to conduct experiments on how organisms will respond to it is limited by logistics and resources, making it vital that experiments be maximally useful. The majority of experiments on phytoplankton responses to warming and CO2 use only two levels of each driver. However, to project the characters of future populations, we need a mechanistic and generalisable explanation for how phytoplankton respond to concurrent changes in temperature and CO2. This requires experiments with more driver levels, to produce response surfaces that can aid in the development of predictive models. We recommend prioritising experiments or programmes that produce such response surfaces on multiple scales for phytoplankton.

SHORT-TERM OUTCOMES AFTER INTERIM TREATMENT WITH BROLUCIZUMAB: A Retrospective Case Series of a Single Center Experience.

PURPOSE: To examine outcomes of eyes with neovascular age-related macular degeneration that were switched to brolucizumab because of an unsatisfactory response to bevacizumab, ranibizumab, and/or aflibercept and then switched back because of the presence or risk of intraocular inflammation. METHODS: Retrospective case series of 51 eyes. Visual acuity and retinal anatomy on optical coherence tomography were recorded at the first brolucizumab injection (T1), the final brolucizumab injection (T2), and 6 months following the final brolucizumab injection (T3). RESULTS: At T2, 41 eyes (41/51%, 80%) had decreased subretinal fluid (31 eyes), intraretinal fluid (12 eyes), or pigment epithelial detachment height (12 eyes). At T3, decreased subretinal fluid was sustained in 17 eyes (17/31%, 55%), decreased intraretinal fluid was sustained in eight eyes (8/12%, 67%), and decreased pigment epithelial detachment height was sustained in eight eyes (8/12%, 67%). Mean logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution visual acuity at T1, T2, and T3 was 0.396 (∼20/50), 0.441 (∼20/55), and 0.468 (∼20/59), respectively. During the brolucizumab treatment period, 11 eyes (11/51%, 22%) developed intraocular inflammation, including one case of retinal vasculitis. CONCLUSION: Interim treatment with brolucizumab resulted in anatomical improvements in 41 eyes (41/51%, 80%) that were maintained in 22 of these eyes (22/41%, 54%) for at least 6 months after switching back to the original anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapeutic. There were no corresponding significant changes in visual acuity.

Complex effects of chytrid parasites on the growth of the cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens across interacting temperature and light gradients.

Chytrids are important drivers of aquatic ecosystems as phytoplankton parasites. The interaction between these parasites and their hosts are shaped by abiotic factors such as temperature and light. Here, we performed a full-factorial experiment to study how temperature and light interact to affect the dynamics of the bloom-forming toxic cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens and its chytrid parasite. We used a dynamic host-parasite model to explore how temperature and light affect long term dynamics. At low temperatures, chytrids do not survive. Higher light and temperature levels stimulated both phytoplankton and chytrid growth, with complex effects on their dynamics. Model exploration indicates that increasing temperature and light shifts equilibrium outcomes from P. rubescens persisting alone to stable coexistence and then to limit cycles. This provides an alternative biological explanation for why P. rubescens is mainly found in the relatively cold and dark lake metalimnion - it may enable avoidance of its parasite. Our study emphasizes the importance of investigating how abiotic factors interact with biotic interactions to drive complex outcomes.

Heterotrophic eukaryotes show a slow-fast continuum, not a gleaner-exploiter trade-off.

Gleaners and exploiters (opportunists) are organisms adapted to feeding in nutritionally poor and rich environments, respectively. A trade-off between these two strategies-a negative relationship between the rate at which organisms can acquire food and ingest it-is a critical assumption in many ecological models. Here, we evaluate evidence for this trade-off across a wide range of heterotrophic eukaryotes from unicellular nanoflagellates to large mammals belonging to both aquatic and terrestrial realms. Using data on the resource acquisition and ingestion rates in >500 species, we find no evidence of a trade-off across species. Instead, there is a positive relationship between maximum clearance rate and maximum ingestion rate. The positive relationship is not a result of lumping together diverse taxa; it holds within all subgroups of organisms we examined as well. Correcting for differences in body mass weakens but does not reverse the positive relationship, so this is not an artifact of size scaling either. Instead, this positive relationship represents a slow-fast gradient in the "pace of life" that overrides the expected gleaner-exploiter trade-off. Other trade-offs must therefore shape ecological processes, and investigating them may provide deeper insights into coexistence, competitive dynamics, and biodiversity patterns in nature. A plausible target for study is the well-documented trade-off between growth rate and predation avoidance, which can also drive the slow-fast gradient we observe here.

The evolution of competitive ability for essential resources.

Competition for limiting resources is among the most fundamental ecological interactions and has long been considered a key driver of species coexistence and biodiversity. Species' minimum resource requirements, their R*s, are key traits that link individual physiological demands to the outcome of competition. However, a major question remains unanswered-to what extent are species' competitive traits able to evolve in response to resource limitation? To address this knowledge gap, we performed an evolution experiment in which we exposed Chlamydomonas reinhardtii for approximately 285 generations to seven environments in chemostats that differed in resource supply ratios (including nitrogen, phosphorus and light limitation) and salt stress. We then grew the ancestors and descendants in a common garden and quantified their competitive abilities for essential resources. We investigated constraints on trait evolution by testing whether changes in resource requirements for different resources were correlated. Competitive abilities for phosphorus improved in all populations, while competitive abilities for nitrogen and light increased in some populations and decreased in others. In contrast to the common assumption that there are trade-offs between competitive abilities for different resources, we found that improvements in competitive ability for a resource came at no detectable cost. Instead, improvements in competitive ability for multiple resources were either positively correlated or not significantly correlated. Using resource competition theory, we then demonstrated that rapid adaptation in competitive traits altered the predicted outcomes of competition. These results highlight the need to incorporate contemporary evolutionary change into predictions of competitive community dynamics over environmental gradients. This article is part of the theme issue 'Conceptual challenges in microbial community ecology'.

Light limitation increases multidimensional trait evenness in phytoplankton populations.

Individual-level variation arising from responses to environmental gradients influences population and community dynamics. How such responses empirically relate to the mechanisms that govern species coexistence is, however, poorly understood. Previous results from l ake phytoplankton communities suggested that the evenness of organismal traits in multiple dimensions increases with resource limitation, possibly due to resource partitioning at the individual level. Here we experimentally tested the emergence of this pattern by growing two phytoplankton species (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata and Microcystis aeruginosa) under a gradient of light intensity, in monoculture and jointly. Under low light (resource) conditions, the populations diversified into a wide range of phenotypes, which were evenly distributed in multidimensional trait space (defined by four pigment-related trait dimensions), consistent with the observed field pattern. Our interpretation is that under conditions of light limitation, individual phytoplankton cells alter photosynthetic traits to reduce overlap in light acquisition, acquiring unexploited resources and thereby likely maximising individual success. Our results provide prime experimental evidence that resource limitation increases the evenness of conspecific and heterospecific microbial phenotypes along trait axes, advancing our understanding of trait-based coexistence.

USE OF THE ISCHEMIC INDEX ON WIDEFIELD FLUORESCEIN ANGIOGRAPHY TO CHARACTERIZE A CENTRAL RETINAL VEIN OCCLUSION AS ISCHEMIC OR NONISCHEMIC.

PURPOSE: To understand the relationship between baseline ischemic index (IsI) values on ultra-widefield fluorescein angiography and classification as ischemic central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO). METHODS: Single-center retrospective cohort study of CRVO patients imaged using ultra-widefield fluorescein angiography from which IsI values were calculated. An ischemic CRVO was defined as those eyes with an afferent pupillary defect and counting fingers acuity or worse or neovascularization during the first year of follow-up. Logistic regression was performed to characterize the relation between the IsI and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Sixty eyes of 60 treatment-naive CRVO patients with baseline ultra-widefield fluorescein angiography and ≥1 year of follow-up were identified. Those with an IsI ≥35% were significantly more likely to have an ischemic CRVO during the first year of follow-up than those with an IsI <35% (83.3 vs. 13.9%, odds ratio 111, P < 0.0001). Baseline and final logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution acuity were worse in eyes with an IsI ≥35% (1.18 vs. 0.46, P < 0.001 and 1.26 vs. 0.45, P < 0.001, respectively) despite similar baseline and final central subfield thickness (P = 0.1-0.23). CONCLUSION: A baseline IsI of ≥35% on ultra-widefield fluorescein angiography in eyes with treatment-naive CRVO was sensitive (90%) and specific (92.5%) for classification as an ischemic CRVO during the first year of follow-up.

Quantifying cell densities and biovolumes of phytoplankton communities and functional groups using scanning flow cytometry, machine learning and unsupervised clustering.

Scanning flow cytometry (SFCM) is characterized by the measurement of time-resolved pulses of fluorescence and scattering, enabling the high-throughput quantification of phytoplankton morphology and pigmentation. Quantifying variation at the single cell and colony level improves our ability to understand dynamics in natural communities. Automated high-frequency monitoring of these communities is presently limited by the absence of repeatable, rapid protocols to analyse SFCM datasets, where images of individual particles are not available. Here we demonstrate a repeatable, semi-automated method to (1) rapidly clean SFCM data from a phytoplankton community by removing signals that do not belong to live phytoplankton cells, (2) classify individual cells into trait clusters that correspond to functional groups, and (3) quantify the biovolumes of individual cells, the total biovolume of the whole community and the total biovolumes of the major functional groups. Our method involves the development of training datasets using lab cultures, the use of an unsupervised clustering algorithm to identify trait clusters, and machine learning tools (random forests) to (1) evaluate variable importance, (2) classify data points, and (3) estimate biovolumes of individual cells. We provide example datasets and R code for our analytical approach that can be adapted for analysis of datasets from other flow cytometers or scanning flow cytometers.

The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years.

Forecasting changes to ecological communities is one of the central challenges in ecology. However, nonlinear dependencies, biotic interactions and data limitations have limited our ability to assess how predictable communities are. Here, we used a machine learning approach and environmental monitoring data (biological, physical and chemical) to assess the predictability of phytoplankton cell density in one lake across an unprecedented range of time-scales. Communities were highly predictable over hours to months: model R2 decreased from 0.89 at 4 hours to 0.74 at 1 month, and in a long-term dataset lacking fine spatial resolution, from 0.46 at 1 month to 0.32 at 10 years. When cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal cell densities were examined separately, model-inferred environmental growth dependencies matched laboratory studies, and suggested novel trade-offs governing their competition. High-frequency monitoring and machine learning can set prediction targets for process-based models and help elucidate the mechanisms underlying ecological dynamics.

Water-borne pharmaceuticals reduce phenotypic diversity and response capacity of natural phytoplankton communities.

Chemical micropollutants occur worldwide in the environment at low concentrations and in complex mixtures, and how they affect the ecology of natural systems is still uncertain. Dynamics of natural communities are driven by the interaction between individual organisms and their growth environment, which is mediated by the organisms' expressed phenotypic traits. We tested whether exposure to a mixture of 12 pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCP) influences phenotypic trait diversity in lake phytoplankton communities and their ability to regulate biomass production to fit environmental changes (response capacity). We exposed natural phytoplankton assemblages to three mixture levels in permeable microcosms maintained at three depths in a eutrophic lake for one week, during which the environmental conditions were fluctuating. We studied individual-level traits, phenotypic diversity and community biomass. PPCP reduced individual-level trait variance and overall community phenotypic diversity, but maintained higher standing phytoplankton biomass compared to untreated controls. Estimated effect sizes of PPCP on traits and community properties were very large (partial Eta-squared > 0.15). The PPCP mixture antagonistically interacted with the natural environmental gradient in habitats offered by different depths and, at concentrations comparable to those in waste-water effluents, prevented communities from converging to the same phenotypic structure and total biomass of unexposed controls. We show that micropollutants can alter individual-level trait diversity of lake phytoplankton communities and therefore their capacity to respond to natural environmental gradients, potentially affecting aquatic ecosystem processes.

Temperature-nutrient interactions exacerbate sensitivity to warming in phytoplankton.

Temperature and nutrients are fundamental, highly nonlinear drivers of biological processes, but we know little about how they interact to influence growth. This has hampered attempts to model population growth and competition in dynamic environments, which is critical in forecasting species distributions, as well as the diversity and productivity of communities. To address this, we propose a model of population growth that includes a new formulation of the temperature-nutrient interaction and test a novel prediction: that a species' optimum temperature for growth, Topt , is a saturating function of nutrient concentration. We find strong support for this prediction in experiments with a marine diatom, Thalassiosira pseudonana: Topt decreases by 3-6 °C at low nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations. This interaction implies that species are more vulnerable to hot, low-nutrient conditions than previous models accounted for. Consequently the interaction dramatically alters species' range limits in the ocean, projected based on current temperature and nitrate levels as well as those forecast for the future. Ranges are smaller not only than projections based on the individual variables, but also than those using a simpler model of temperature-nutrient interactions. Nutrient deprivation is therefore likely to exacerbate environmental warming's effects on communities.

Swift thermal reaction norm evolution in a key marine phytoplankton species.

Temperature has a profound effect on the species composition and physiology of marine phytoplankton, a polyphyletic group of microbes responsible for half of global primary production. Here, we ask whether and how thermal reaction norms in a key calcifying species, the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, change as a result of 2.5 years of experimental evolution to a temperature ≈2°C below its upper thermal limit. Replicate experimental populations derived from a single genotype isolated from Norwegian coastal waters were grown at two temperatures for 2.5 years before assessing thermal responses at 6 temperatures ranging from 15 to 26°C, with pCO 2 (400/1100/2200 µatm) as a fully factorial additional factor. The two selection temperatures (15°/26.3°C) led to a marked divergence of thermal reaction norms. Optimal growth temperatures were 0.7°C higher in experimental populations selected at 26.3°C than those selected at 15.0°C. An additional negative effect of high pCO 2 on maximal growth rate (8% decrease relative to lowest level) was observed. Finally, the maximum persistence temperature (Tmax) differed by 1-3°C between experimental treatments, as a result of an interaction between pCO 2 and the temperature selection. Taken together, we demonstrate that several attributes of thermal reaction norms in phytoplankton may change faster than the predicted progression of ocean warming.

Marine phytoplankton temperature versus growth responses from polar to tropical waters--outcome of a scientific community-wide study.

"It takes a village to finish (marine) science these days" Paraphrased from Curtis Huttenhower (the Human Microbiome project) The rapidity and complexity of climate change and its potential effects on ocean biota are challenging how ocean scientists conduct research. One way in which we can begin to better tackle these challenges is to conduct community-wide scientific studies. This study provides physiological datasets fundamental to understanding functional responses of phytoplankton growth rates to temperature. While physiological experiments are not new, our experiments were conducted in many laboratories using agreed upon protocols and 25 strains of eukaryotic and prokaryotic phytoplankton isolated across a wide range of marine environments from polar to tropical, and from nearshore waters to the open ocean. This community-wide approach provides both comprehensive and internally consistent datasets produced over considerably shorter time scales than conventional individual and often uncoordinated lab efforts. Such datasets can be used to parameterise global ocean model projections of environmental change and to provide initial insights into the magnitude of regional biogeographic change in ocean biota in the coming decades. Here, we compare our datasets with a compilation of literature data on phytoplankton growth responses to temperature. A comparison with prior published data suggests that the optimal temperatures of individual species and, to a lesser degree, thermal niches were similar across studies. However, a comparison of the maximum growth rate across studies revealed significant departures between this and previously collected datasets, which may be due to differences in the cultured isolates, temporal changes in the clonal isolates in cultures, and/or differences in culture conditions. Such methodological differences mean that using particular trait measurements from the prior literature might introduce unknown errors and bias into modelling projections. Using our community-wide approach we can reduce such protocol-driven variability in culture studies, and can begin to address more complex issues such as the effect of multiple environmental drivers on ocean biota.

A global pattern of thermal adaptation in marine phytoplankton.

Rising ocean temperatures will alter the productivity and composition of marine phytoplankton communities, thereby affecting global biogeochemical cycles. Predicting the effects of future ocean warming on biogeochemical cycles depends critically on understanding how existing global temperature variation affects phytoplankton. Here we show that variation in phytoplankton temperature optima over 150 degrees of latitude is well explained by a gradient in mean ocean temperature. An eco-evolutionary model predicts a similar relationship, suggesting that this pattern is the result of evolutionary adaptation. Using mechanistic species distribution models, we find that rising temperatures this century will cause poleward shifts in species' thermal niches and a sharp decline in tropical phytoplankton diversity in the absence of an evolutionary response.

Toward an integration of evolutionary biology and ecosystem science.

At present, the disciplines of evolutionary biology and ecosystem science are weakly integrated. As a result, we have a poor understanding of how the ecological and evolutionary processes that create, maintain, and change biological diversity affect the flux of energy and materials in global biogeochemical cycles. The goal of this article was to review several research fields at the interfaces between ecosystem science, community ecology and evolutionary biology, and suggest new ways to integrate evolutionary biology and ecosystem science. In particular, we focus on how phenotypic evolution by natural selection can influence ecosystem functions by affecting processes at the environmental, population and community scale of ecosystem organization. We develop an eco-evolutionary model to illustrate linkages between evolutionary change (e.g. phenotypic evolution of producer), ecological interactions (e.g. consumer grazing) and ecosystem processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). We conclude by proposing experiments to test the ecosystem consequences of evolutionary changes.