Comparative assessment of live cyprinid and salmonid movement networks in England and Wales.

Disease poses a significant threat to aquaculture. While there are a number of factors contributing to pathogen transmission risk, movement of live fish is considered the most important. Understanding live fish movement patterns for different aquaculture sectors is therefore crucial to predicting disease occurrence and necessary for the development of effective, risk-based biosecurity, surveillance and containment policies. However, despite this, our understanding of live movement patterns of key aquaculture species, namely salmonids and cyprinids, within England and Wales remains limited. In this study, networks reflecting live fish movements associated with the cyprinid and salmonid sectors in England and Wales were constructed. The structure, composition and key attributes of each network were examined and compared to provide insight into the nature of trading patterns and connectedness, as well as highlight sites at a high risk of spreading disease. Connectivity at both site and catchment level was considered to facilitate understanding at different resolutions, providing further insight into disease outbreaks, with industry wide implications. The study highlighted that connectivity through live fish movements was extensive for both industries. The salmonid and cyprinid networks comprised 2533 and 3645 nodes, with a network density of 5.81 × 10-4 and 4.2 × 10-4, respectively. The maximum network reach of 2392 in the salmonid network was higher, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of the overall network, compared to maximum network reach of 2085 in the cyprinid network. However, in contrast, the number of sites in the cyprinid network with a network reach greater than one was 513, compared to 171 in the salmonid network. Patterns of connectivity indicated potential for more frequent yet smaller scale disease outbreaks in the cyprinid industry and less frequent but larger scale outbreaks in the salmonid industry. Further, high connectivity between river catchments within both networks was shown, posing challenges for zoning at the catchment level for the purpose of disease management. In addition to providing insight into pathogen transmission and epidemic potential within the salmonid and cyprinid networks, the study highlights the utility of network analysis, and the value of accessible, accurate live fish movement data in this context. The application of outputs from this study, and network analysis methodology, to inform future disease surveillance and control policies, both within England and Wales and more broadly, is discussed.

The aquatic animal pandemic crisis.

The growth of aquaculture over the past 50 years has been accompanied by the emergence of aquatic animal diseases, many of which have spread to become pandemic in countries or continents. An analysis of 400 emerging disease events in aquatic animals that were logged by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science between 2002 and 2017 revealed that more than half were caused by viruses. However, in molluscs, most events were parasitic. Categorising these events indicated that the key processes underpinning emergence were the movement of live animals and host switching. Profiles of key pathogens further illustrate the importance of wild aquatic animals as the source of new infections in farmed animals. It is also clear that the spread of new diseases through the largescale movement of aquatic animals for farming, for food and for the ornamental trade has allowed many to achieve pandemic status. Many viral pathogens of fish (e.g. infectious salmon anaemia, viral haemorrhagic septicaemia) and shrimp (e.g. white spot syndrome virus) affect a large proportion of the global production of key susceptible species. Wild aquatic animal populations have also been severely affected by pandemic diseases, best exemplified by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a fungal infection of amphibians, whose emergence and spread were driven by the movement of animals for the ornamental trade. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is now widespread in the tropics and subtropics and has caused local extinctions of susceptible amphibian hosts. Given the rising demand for seafood, aquacultural production will continue to grow and diseases will continue to emerge. Some will inevitably achieve pandemic status, having significant impacts on production and trade, unless there are considerable changes in global monitoring and the response to aquatic animal diseases.

Au cours des 50 dernières années, la forte croissance qu'a connue l'aquaculture est allée de pair avec l'émergence de nombreuses maladies affectant les animaux aquatiques, dont certaines se sont propagées jusqu'à devenir pandémiques à l'échelle nationale ou continentale. L'analyse de 400 événements sanitaires survenus chez des animaux aquatiques et consignés entre 2002 et 2017 par le Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science a déterminé l'origine virale de plus de la moitié d'entre eux. Toutefois, chez les mollusques la plupart des événements analysés étaient d'ordre parasitaire. Le classement des événements par catégories a montré que les principaux processus sous-jacents à cette émergence étaient liés aux transferts d'animaux vivants et à la colonisation de nouveaux hôtes par les agents pathogènes. Les profils des agents pathogènes majeurs illustrent le rôle des espèces aquatiques sauvages en tant que sources d'infections nouvelles chez les animaux aquatiques d'élevage. Il apparaît clairement que la propagation de nouvelles maladies à la faveur des transferts massifs d'animaux aquatiques à des fins d'élevage, de production alimentaire ou de commerce d'espèces d'ornement a conféré un statut pandémique à nombre de ces maladies. De nombreux virus affectant les poissons (par ex., le virus de l'anémie infectieuse du saumon, le virus de la septicémie hémorragique virale) et les crevettes (par ex., le virus du syndrome des points blancs) ont une incidence majeure sur de vastes segments de la production mondiale d'espèces sensibles cruciales. Les populations sauvages d'animaux aquatiques sont également touchées par des maladies pandémiques, dont l'exemple type est l'infection à Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, une affection fongique des amphibiens dont l'émergence et la propagation sont le fruit des transferts d'animaux aquatiques destinés au commerce aquariophile. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis est désormais largement présent dans les eaux tropicales et subtropicales où il est responsable d'extinctions locales parmi les espèces d'amphibiens sensibles. La croissance de la production aquacole se poursuivra afin de répondre à une demande toujours plus forte en poissons et fruits de mer, entraînant l'émergence continue de nouvelles maladies. Si des changements déterminants ne sont pas introduits dans la surveillance exercée au niveau mondial sur les maladies des animaux aquatiques et dans la réponse qui leur est apportée, certaines de ces maladies vont inéluctablement acquérir une dimension pandémique avec des conséquences importantes sur la production et le commerce.

El crecimiento de la acuicultura en los últimos 50 años se ha acompañado de la aparición de enfermedades de los animales acuáticos, que en muchos casos se han propagado hasta llegar a ser pandémicas en ciertos países o continentes. Tras analizar 400 episodios de enfermedades emergentes de animales acuáticos registrados entre 2002 y 2017 por el Centre for the Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, los autores constataron que más de la mitad de esos episodios fueron causados por virus, si bien en el caso de los moluscos la mayoría de ellos eran parasitarios. De la clasificación de esos episodios se desprende que los procesos básicos que subyacen a su aparición son los desplazamientos de animales vivos y los cambios de anfitrión. El perfil de los principales patógenos revela además la importancia que revisten los animales acuáticos silvestres como fuente de nuevas infecciones de los animales de acuicultura. También está claro que la propagación de nuevas enfermedades por el movimiento a gran escala de animales acuáticos con fines de producción acuícola, consumo alimentario o comercio de animales ornamentales ha propiciado que muchas de ellas adquieran carácter pandémico. Muchos patógenos víricos de los peces (como el virus de la anemia infecciosa del salmón o el de la septicemia hemorrágica viral) y camarones (como el virus del síndrome de las manchas blancas) afectan a una gran parte de la producción mundial de las principales especies sensibles. Las poblaciones silvestres de animales acuáticos también se han visto afectadas de gravedad por enfermedades pandémicas, como ejemplifica perfectamente la infección por Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, micosis de los anfibios cuya aparición y propagación fue alimentada por el comercio y el consiguiente movimiento de animales con fines ornamentales. Este hongo, muy extendido ahora en las regiones tropicales y subtropicales, ha causado la extinción en ciertas áreas de especies anfibias sensibles. Habida cuenta de la creciente demanda de alimentos de origen marino, la producción acuícola seguirá creciendo y también seguirán surgiendo enfermedades. Inevitablemente, algunas de ellas se harán pandémicas y resultarán muy dañinas para la producción y el comercio, a menos que haya cambios de calado en los sistemas mundiales de vigilancia y respuesta ante las enfermedades de los animales acuáticos.

The contact structure of Great Britain's salmon and trout aquaculture industry.

We analyse the network structure of the British salmonid aquaculture industry from the perspective of infectious disease control. We combine for the first time live fish transport (or movement) data covering England and Wales with data covering Scotland and include network layers representing potential transmission by rivers, sea water and local transmission via human or animal vectors in the immediate vicinity of each farm or fishery site. We find that 7.2% of all live fish transports cross the England-Scotland border and network analysis shows that 87% of English and Welsh nodes and 72% of Scottish nodes are reachable from cross-border connections via live fish transports alone. Consequently, from a disease-control perspective, the contact structures of England and Wales and of Scotland should not be considered in isolation. We also show that large epidemics require the live fish movement network and so control strategies targeting movements can be very effective. While there is relatively low risk of widespread epidemics on the live fish transport network alone, the potential risk is substantially amplified by the combined interaction of multiple network layers.

A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively.

Animal Disease Import Risk Analysis--a Review of Current Methods and Practice.

The application of risk analysis to the spread of disease with international trade in animals and their products, that is, import risk analysis (IRA), has been largely driven by the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The degree to which the IRA standard established by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), and associated guidance, meets the needs of the SPS agreement is discussed. The use of scenario trees is the core modelling approach used to represent the steps necessary for the hazard to occur. There is scope to elaborate scenario trees for commodity IRA so that the quantity of hazard at each step is assessed, which is crucial to the likelihood of establishment. The dependence between exposure and establishment suggests that they should fall within the same subcomponent. IRA undertaken for trade reasons must include an assessment of consequences to meet SPS criteria, but guidance is sparse. The integration of epidemiological and economic modelling may open a path for better methods. Matrices have been used in qualitative IRA to combine estimates of entry and exposure, and consequences with likelihood, but this approach has flaws and better methods are needed. OIE IRA standards and guidance indicate that the volume of trade should be taken into account, but offer no detail. Some published qualitative IRAs have assumed current levels and patterns of trade without specifying the volume of trade, which constrains the use of IRA to determine mitigation measures (to reduce risk to an acceptable level) and whether the principle of equivalence, fundamental to the SPS agreement, has been observed. It is questionable whether qualitative IRA can meet all the criteria set out in the SPS agreement. Nevertheless, scope exists to elaborate the current standards and guidance, so they better serve the principle of science-based decision-making.

Acute dermatitis in farmed trout: an emerging disease.

A new skin condition, known as puffy skin disease (PSD), emerged in farmed rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum) in 2002. The number of new cases increased considerably from 2006. Clinical signs include white or grey skin patches, which become raised and red with excessive mucous production and scale loss. Fish are inappetant and lose condition. Histologically, the key feature is epithelial hyperplasia. We undertook a questionnaire study of trout farmers in England and Wales to investigate prevalence and risk factors. PSD was reported on 37% (n = 49) of rainbow trout sites, located in 28 river catchments. The increase in cases from 2006 onwards was mirrored by the increase in red mark syndrome (RMS). Prevalence and severity of PSD were highest in the summer months. The presence of PSD was associated with RMS (OR = 9.7, P < 0.001). Sites receiving live rainbow trout in the previous 12 months were considerably more likely to have PSD (OR = 5.3. P < 0.01), which suggests an infectious aetiology. The size of affected fish and prevalence varied between farms, indicating that farm-level factors are important. Future research should further investigate the aetiology of PSD and practices to manage the disease.

Do imports of rainbow trout carcasses risk introducing viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus into England and Wales?

A qualitative import risk assessment was undertaken to assess the likelihood of introduction and establishment of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype 1a in England and Wales (E&W), via the processing of imported rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) carcasses from continental Europe. The likelihood was estimated for one import from an infected farm. Four main routes by which susceptible populations could be exposed to VHSV via processing waste were considered: (i) run-off from solid waste to watercourses, (ii) contamination of birds or rodents with VHSV by scavenging solid waste, (iii) discharge of liquid waste to mains drainage, and (iv) discharge of liquid waste directly to watercourses. Data on the biophysical characteristics of VHSV, its epidemiology, fish processing practices and waste management were collected. Likelihoods for each step of the four pathways were estimated. Pathway 4 (discharge of liquid waste to a watercourse) was judged as the most likely to result in infection of susceptible individuals. Levels of virus entering the aquatic environment via pathways 1-3 were judged to be many times lower than pathway 4 due mainly to the treatment of solid waste (pathways 1 and 2) and high levels of dilution (pathways 1, 2 and 3). Thirty-four trout farms process fish, of which seven have imported carcasses for processing. Compared with other processing facilities, on-farm processing results in a higher likelihood of VHSV exposure and establishment via all four pathways. Data availability was an issue; the analysis was particularly constrained by a lack of data on the prevalence of VHSV in Europe, volume of trade of carcasses into the UK and processing practices in E&W. It was concluded that the threat of VHSV introduction into E&W could be reduced by treatment of liquid effluent from processing plants and by sourcing carcasses for on-farm processing only from approved VHSV free areas.

Spring viraemia of carp (SVC) in the UK: the road to freedom.

Spring viraemia of carp (SVC) is a disease of international importance that predominantly affects cyprinid fish and can cause significant mortality. In the United Kingdom (UK), SVC was first detected in 1977 with further cases occurring in fisheries, farms, wholesale and retail establishments throughout England and Wales (but not Scotland, where few cyprinid populations exist, nor Northern Ireland where SVC has never been detected) over the subsequent 30 years. Following a control and eradication programme for the disease initiated in 2005, the UK was recognised free of the disease in 2010. This study compiles historic records of SVC cases in England and Wales with a view to understanding its routes of introduction and spread, and assessing the effectiveness of the control and eradication programme in order to improve contingency plans to prevent and control future disease incursions in the cyprinid fish sectors. Between 1977 and 2010 the presence of SVC was confirmed on 108 occasions, with 65 of the cases occurring in sport fisheries and the majority of the remainder occurring in the ornamental fish sector. The study found that throughout the history of SVC in the UK, though cases were widely distributed, their occurrence was sporadic and the virus did not become endemic. All evidence indicates that SVC was not able to persist under UK environmental conditions, suggesting that the majority of cases were a result of new introductions to the UK as opposed to within-country spread. The control and eradication programme adopted in 2005 was highly effective and two years after its implementation cases of SVC ceased. Given the non-persistent nature of the pathogen the most important aspect of the control programme focused on preventing re-introduction of the virus to the UK. Despite the effectiveness of these controls against SVC, this approach is likely to be less effective against more persistent pathogens such as koi herpesvirus, which are likely to require more stringent measures to prevent within-country spread.

A model to approximate lake temperature from gridded daily air temperature records and its application in risk assessment for the establishment of fish diseases in the UK.

Ambient water temperature is a key factor controlling the distribution and impact of disease in fish populations, and optimum temperature ranges have been characterised for the establishment of a number important aquatic diseases exotic to the UK. This study presents a simple regression method to approximate daily average surface water temperature in lakes of 0.5-15 ha in size across the UK using 5 km(2) gridded daily average air temperatures provided by the UK Meteorological Office. A Geographic information system (GIS) is used to present thematic maps of relative risk scores established for each grid cell based on the mean number of days per year that water temperature satisfied optimal criteria for the establishment of two economically important pathogens of cyprinid fish (koi herpesvirus (KHV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV)) and the distribution and density of fish populations susceptible to these viruses. High-density susceptible populations broadly overlap the areas where the temperature profiles are optimal for KHV (central and south-east England); however, few fish populations occur in areas where temperature profiles are most likely to result in the establishment of spring viremia of carp (SVC) (namely northern England and Scotland). The highest grid-cell risk scores for KHV and SVC were 7 and 6, respectively, out of a maximum score of 14. The proportion of grid cells containing susceptible populations with risk scores of 5 or more was 37% and 5% for KHV and SVC, respectively. This work demonstrates a risk-based approach to inform surveillance for exotic pathogens in aquatic animal health management, allowing efficient use of resources directed towards higher risk animals and geographic areas for early disease detection. The methodology could be used to examine the change in distribution of high-risk areas for both exotic and endemic fish diseases under different climate change scenarios.

Monitoring emerging diseases of fish and shellfish using electronic sources.

New and emerging fish and shellfish diseases represent an important constraint to the growth and sustainability of many aquaculture sectors and have also caused substantial economic and environmental impacts in wild stocks. This paper details the results of 8 years of a monitoring programme for emerging aquatic animal diseases reported around the world. The objectives were to track global occurrences and, more specifically, to identify and provide advanced warning of disease threats that may affect wild and farmed fish stocks in the UK. A range of electronic information sources, including Internet newsletters, alerting services and news agency releases, was systematically searched for reports of new diseases, new presentations of known pathogens and known diseases occurring in new geographic locations or new host species. A database was established to log the details of key findings, and 250 emerging disease events in 52 countries were recorded during the period of study. These included 14 new diseases and a further 16 known diseases in new species. Viruses and parasites accounted for the majority of reports (55% and 24%, respectively), and known diseases occurring in new locations were the most important emerging disease category (in which viruses were dominant). Emerging diseases were reported disproportionally in salmonid species (33%), in farmed populations (62%) and in Europe and North America (80%). The lack of reports from some regions with significant aquaculture or fishery production may indicate that emerging diseases are not being recognized in these areas owing to insufficient surveillance or testing or that these events are being under-reported. The results are discussed in relation to processes underpinning disease emergence in the aquatic environment.

Ranking freshwater fish farms for the risk of pathogen introduction and spread.

A semi-quantitative model is presented to rank freshwater rainbow trout farms within a country or region with regards to the risk of becoming infected and spreading a specified pathogen. The model was developed to support a risk-based surveillance scheme for notifiable salmonid pathogens. Routes of pathogen introduction and spread were identified through a process of expert consultation in a series of workshops. The routes were combined into themes (e.g. exposure via water, mechanical transmission). Themes were weighted based on expert opinion. Risk factors for each route were scored and combined into a theme score which was adjusted by the weight. The number of sources and consignments were used to assess introduction via live fish movements onto the farm. Biosecurity measures were scored to assess introduction on fomites. Upstream farms, wild fish and processing plants were included in assessing the likelihood of introduction by water. The scores for each theme were combined to give separate risk scores for introduction and spread. A matrix was used to combine these to give an overall risk score. A case study for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia is presented. Nine farms that represent a range of farming practices of rainbow trout farms in England and Wales are used as worked examples of the model. The model is suited to risk rank freshwater salmonid farms which are declared free of the pathogen(s) under consideration. The score allocated to a farm does not equate to a quantitative probability estimate of the farm to become infected or spread infection. Nevertheless, the method provides a transparent approach to ranking farms with regards to pathogen transmission risks. The output of the model at a regional or national level allows the allocation of surveillance effort to be risk based. It also provides fish farms with information on how they can reduce their risk score by improving biosecurity. The framework of the model can be applied to different production systems which may have other routes of disease spread. Further work is recommended to validate the allocated scores. Expert opinion was obtained through workshops, where the outputs from groups were single point estimates for relative weights of risks. More formal expert opinion elicitation methods could be used to capture variation in the experts' estimates and uncertainty and would provide data on which to simulate the model stochastically. The model can be downloaded (in Microsoft(®)-Excel format) from the Internet at: http://www.cefas.defra.gov.uk/6701.aspx.

Epidemics and control strategies for diseases of farmed salmonids: a parameter study.

The susceptibility of the English and Welsh fish farming and fisheries industry to emergent diseases is assessed using a stochastic simulation model. The model dynamics operate on a network comprising directed transport and river contacts, as well as undirected local and fomite transmissions. The directed connections cause outward transmission risk to be geographically more confined than inward risk. We consider reactive, proactive, and hybrid methods of control which correspond to a mixture of policy and the ease of disease detection. An explicit investigation of the impact of laboratory capacity is made. General quantified guidelines are derived to mitigate future epidemics.

Epizootic haematopoietic necrosis virus--an assessment of the likelihood of introduction and establishment in England and Wales.

Epizootic haematopoietic necrosis virus (EHNV) is an iridovirus that affects perch (Perca fluviatilis) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). It emerged in Australia in the 1980s and has not been discovered elsewhere. It causes a high level of mortality in perch resulting in steep population declines. The main possible routes of introduction of the virus to England and Wales are the importation of infected live fish or carcasses. However, no trade in live susceptible species is permitted under current legislation, and no importation of carcasses currently takes place. The virus is hardy and low levels of challenge can infect perch. Therefore, mechanical transmission through the importation of non-susceptible fish species should be considered as a potential route of introduction and establishment. Carp (Cyprinus carpio) have been imported to the UK from Australia for release into still-water fisheries. A qualitative risk assessment concluded that the likelihood of EHNV introduction and establishment in England and Wales with the importation of a consignment of carp was very low. The level of uncertainty at a number of steps in the risk assessment scenario tree was high, notably the likelihood that carp become contaminated with the virus and whether effective contact (resulting in pathogen transmission) is made between the introduced carp and susceptible species in England and Wales. The virus would only establish when the water temperature is greater than 12 degrees C. Analysis of 10 years of data from two rivers in south-west England indicated that establishment could occur over a period of at least 14 weeks a year in southern England (when average water temperature exceed 12 degrees C). Imports of live fish from Australia need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis to determine which, if any, sanitary measures are required to reduce the assessed risk to an acceptable level.

Assessment of exotic fish disease introduction and establishment in the United Kingdom via live fish transporters.

Live fish transporters returning empty from mainland Europe may mechanically introduce exotic pathogens and parasites to the UK. A qualitative risk assessment approach was adopted to investigate the likelihood of introduction and establishment in rainbow trout farms of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS), infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN) and Gyrodactylus salaris via this route. A scenario tree was developed and estimates made for the likelihood of each step based on a review of the available information. The level of uncertainty associated with each step was qualitatively assessed. The likelihood of a lorry becoming contaminated with any of the 3 hazards was only greater than negligible if the lorry made movements between farms in mainland Europe. In these circumstances, the overall likelihood of introduction and establishment was extremely low (would occur very rarely), extremely low to negligible and very low (would occur rarely) for VHS, IHN and G. salaris, respectively. A high level of uncertainty existed due to the lack of data on farm-level prevalence, minimum infectious dose (of the viral hazards) and the large variability in duration and conditions of transport. A telephone survey of live fish transporters found that cleaning and disinfection practices after return to the UK were implemented. Currently, no UK-based transporters make movements between farms in mainland Europe. Thus, the likelihood that UK-owned transporters may become infected is negligible. Changes in the way in which UK-based live fish transporters operate in mainland Europe need to be monitored and development of a code of practice to minimise the risk of disease introduction considered.

An assessment of the variation in the prevalence of renal myxosporidiosis and hepatitis in wild brown trout, Salmo trutta L., within and between rivers in South-West England.

The prevalence of renal myxosporidiosis in wild brown trout, Salmo trutta, in seven river catchments in South-West England was investigated. Three hundred and twenty-seven fish were sampled from 16 sites, of which 54 (16.5%) were found, by histological examination of the kidney, to be infected with Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, the causative agent of proliferative kidney disease. No T. bryosalmonae infected fish were found in one river catchment, in other catchments the prevalence ranged from 2.5% to 36%. Hepatitis was strongly associated with the presence of T. bryosalmonae (odds ratio = 20.2, P < 0.001). Chloromyxum schurovi was found in 25% of fish and in six of seven river catchments, where the prevalence ranged from 2.4% to 63%. There was a strong negative association between the presence of T. bryosalmonae and C. schurovi (odds ratio = 0.10, P < 0.001). A hierarchical binomal model of the variance indicated that for T. bryosalmonae most of the variance existed at the site level, whereas for C. schurovi most variance existed at the river catchment level, suggesting that prevalence of T. bryosalmonae infection is determined largely by site level factors (e.g. presence of alternate host). The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were 0.2 and 0.4 for T. bryosalmonae and C. schurovi, respectively, indicating the latter has higher effective transmission because of a higher level of infectiousness and/or abundance of alternate oligochaete hosts. These values can be used in future studies to estimate the sample sizes required to generate prevalence estimates with the required precision.

The application of risk analysis in aquatic animal health management.

Risk analysis has only been regularly used in the management of aquatic animal health in recent years. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS) stimulated the application of risk analysis to investigate disease risks associated with international trade (import risk analysis-IRA). A majority (9 of 17) of the risk analyses reviewed were IRA. The other major focus has been the parasite of Atlantic salmon--Gyrodactylus salaris. Six studies investigated the spread of this parasite, between countries, rivers and from farmed to wild stocks, and clearly demonstrated that risk analysis can support aquatic animal health policy development, from international trade and biosecurity to disease interaction between wild and farmed stocks. Other applications of risk analysis included the spread of vertically transmitted pathogens and disease emergence in aquaculture. The Covello-Merkhofer, risk analysis model was most commonly used and appears to be a flexible tool not only for IRA but also the investigation of disease spread in other contexts. The limitations of the identified risk assessments were discussed. A majority were qualitative, partly due to the lack of data for quantitative analysis, and this, it can be argued, constrained their usefulness for trade purposes (i.e. setting appropriate sanitary measures); in other instances, a qualitative result was found to be adequate for decision making. A lack of information about the disease hazards of the large number of fish species traded is likely to constrain quantitative analysis for a number of years. The consequence assessment element of a risk analysis was most likely to be omitted, or limited in scope and depth, rarely extending beyond examining the evidence of susceptibility of farmed and wild species to the identified hazard. The reasons for this are discussed and recommendations made to develop guidelines for a consistent, systematic and multi-disciplinary approach to consequence assessment. Risk analysis has improved decision making in aquatic animal health management by providing a transparent method for using the available scientific information. The lack of data is the main constraint to the application of risk analysis in aquatic animal health. The identification of critical parameters is an important output from risk analysis models which should be used to prioritise research.

Qualitative risk assessment of routes of transmission of the exotic fish parasite Gyrodactylus salaris between river catchments in England and Wales.

Gyrodactylus salaris is a freshwater, monogenean ecto-parasite of Atlantic-salmon. Infection of its natural host, the Baltic strain of Atlantic-salmon, is inapparent. G. salaris also can infect rainbow-trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) permanently, and cause infection of < or =50 days in several other species. It is only on Atlantic stocks of Atlantic-salmon (Salmo salar) that the parasite multiplies unchecked by an immune response, causes death in juveniles and dramatic reductions in wild populations. In Norway, the parasite has been introduced into 45 rivers, resulting in reductions in Atlantic-salmon stocks of up to 98%. It is probably the most-important exotic fish-disease threat to the UK. We used risk analysis to assess the most-important routes of spread for G. salaris between rivers in England and Wales. The movement of live rainbow-trout was identified as the most-important route of transmission; this route is likely to lead rapidly to the wide geographic spread of the parasite. The movement of other species of fish (especially from sites holding rainbow-trout) is also an important risk. Other routes of spread (including mechanical transmission on farm equipment and vehicles, angling equipment, canoes, etc.) might allow limited local spread (mainly to neighbouring rivers).

Qualitative analysis of the risk of introducing Gyrodactylus salaris into the United Kingdom.

Gyrodactylus salaris is a freshwater, monogenean ectoparasite of Baltic strains of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar on which it generally causes no clinical disease. Infection of other strains of Atlantic salmon in Norway has resulted in high levels of juvenile salmon mortality and highly significant reductions in the population. The parasite is a major exotic disease threat to wild Atlantic salmon in the UK. This paper qualitatively assesses the risk of introduction and establishment of G. salaris into the UK. The current UK fish health regime prevents the importation of live salmonids from freshwater in territories that have not substantiated freedom from G. salaris. The importation of other species, e.g. eels Anguilla anguilla and non-salmonid fish, represents a low risk because the likelihood of infection is very low and the parasite can only survive on these hosts for less than 50 d. Importation of salmon carcasses presents a negligible risk because harvested fish originate from seawater sites and the parasite cannot survive full strength salinity. The importation of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss carcasses from G. salaris infected freshwater sites might introduce the parasite, but establishment is only likely if carcasses are processed on a salmonid farm in the UK. A number of mechanical transmission routes were considered (e.g. angling equipment, canoes, ballast water) and the most important was judged to be the movement of live fish transporters from farms on mainland Europe direct to UK fish farms. In the future, territories may have to substantiate freedom from G. salaris and economic drivers for live salmonid imports may strengthen. Under these circumstances, legal or illegal live salmonid imports would become the most significant risk of introduction.