Modelled impact of Tiny Targets on the distribution and abundance of riverine tsetse.

BACKGROUND: The insecticide-treated baits known as Tiny Targets are one of the cheapest means of controlling riverine species of tsetse flies, the vectors of the trypanosomes that cause sleeping sickness in humans. Models of the efficacy of these targets deployed near rivers are potentially useful in planning control campaigns and highlighting the principles involved. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To evaluate the potential of models, we produced a simple non-seasonal model of the births, deaths, mobility and aging of tsetse, and we programmed it to simulate the impact of seven years of target use against the tsetse, Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, in the riverine habitats of NW Uganda. Particular attention was given to demonstrating that the model could explain three matters of interest: (i) good control can be achieved despite the degradation of targets, (ii) local elimination of tsetse is impossible if invasion sources are not tackled, and (iii) with invasion and target degradation it is difficult to detect any effect of control on the age structure of the tsetse population. CONCLUSIONS: Despite its simplifications, the model can assist planning and teaching, but allowance should be made for any complications due to seasonality and management challenges associated with greater scale.

Evaluation of community-based vector surveillance system for routine entomological monitoring under low malaria vector densities and high bed net coverage in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Entomological surveillance is traditionally conducted by supervised teams of trained technicians. However, it is expensive and limiting in the number of sites visited. Surveillance through community-based collectors (CBC) may be more cost-effective and sustainable for longitudinal entomological monitoring. This study evaluated the efficiency of CBCs in monitoring mosquito densities compared to quality-assured sampling conducted by experienced entomology technicians. METHODS: Entomological surveillance employing CBCs was conducted in eighteen clusters of villages in western Kenya using indoor and outdoor CDC light traps and indoor Prokopack aspiration. Sixty houses in each cluster were enrolled and sampled once every month. Collected mosquitoes were initially identified to the genus level by CBCs, preserved in 70% ethanol and transferred to the laboratory every 2 weeks. Parallel, collections by experienced entomology field technicians were conducted monthly by indoor and outdoor CDC light traps and indoor Prokopack aspiration and served as a quality assurance of the CBCs. RESULTS: Per collection, the CBCs collected 80% fewer Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) [RR = 0.2; (95% CI 0.14-0.27)] and Anopheles coustani [RR = 0.2; (95% CI 0.06-0.53)] and 90% fewer Anopheles funestus [RR = 0.1; (95% CI 0.08-0.19)] by CDC light traps compared to the quality assured (QA) entomology teams. Significant positive correlations were however observed between the monthly collections by CBCs and QA teams for both An. gambiae and An. funestus. In paired identifications of pooled mosquitoes, the CBCs identified 4.3 times more Anopheles compared to experienced technicians. The cost per person-night was lower in the community-based sampling at $9.1 compared to $89.3 by QA per collection effort. CONCLUSION: Unsupervised community-based mosquito surveillance collected substantially fewer mosquitoes per trap-night compared to quality-assured collection by experienced field teams, while consistently overestimating the number of Anopheles mosquitoes during identification. However, the numbers collected were significantly correlated between the CBCs and the QA teams suggesting that trends observed by CBCs and QA teams were similar. Further studies are needed to evaluate whether adopting low-cost, devolved supervision with spot checks, coupled with remedial training of the CBCs, can improve community-based collections to be considered a cost-effective alternative to surveillance conducted by experienced entomological technicians.

Community empowerment through participation in a tsetse control project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) is a neglected tropical disease caused by trypanosomes transmitted by tsetse flies. In 2017, a pilot community-based project was launched in three villages in DRC with the overall goal of empowering community members to control tsetse using Tiny Targets which attract and kill tsetse. In this paper, we assess the community participation process in these three pilot villages over >4 years and evaluate to what extent this resulted in the empowerment of communities. We conducted a qualitative study using a participatory research approach. Together with community members of the three pilot villages from the endemic Kwilu province, we evaluated changes in project participation, community empowerment and perception of future participation at three different time points (September 2017, September 2018 and November 2021) over a 4-year period using participatory workshops and focus group discussions (FGD). We used a thematic content approach to analyse both workshop notes and FGD transcripts. The community identified five indicators to evaluate participation: (1) Leadership & Ownership, (2) Organisation & Planning, (3) Willingness, (4) Autonomy and (5) Community Involvement. The participation experience described by community members was characterised by a rapid growth of empowerment in the first year and sustained high levels thereafter. Community participants were willing to engage in potential future projects and continue to be supported by their Tiny Target project partner. However, they identified an imbalance in the power relationship within the committee and with the Tiny Target partners that limit the extent of empowerment attained. The intervention had broader benefits of community empowerment but this was limited by perceptions of being part of wider "top down" programme and by stakeholders attitude toward community participation. If empowerment is to be an important objective of projects and programmes then the needs identified by communities must be recognised and attitude of sharing power encouraged.

Identification of the area sampled by traps: A modelling study with tsetse.

BACKGROUND: Sampling with traps provides the most common means of investigating the abundance, composition and condition of tsetse populations. It is thus important to know the size of the area from which the samples originate, but that topic is poorly understood. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The topic was clarified with the aid of a simple deterministic model of the mobility, births and deaths of tsetse. The model assessed how the sampled area changed according to variations in the numbers, arrangement and catching efficiency of traps deployed for different periods in a large block of homogeneous habitat subject to different levels of fly mortality. The greatest impacts on the size of the sampled area are produced by the flies' mean daily step length and the duration of trapping. There is little effect of trap type. The daily death rate of adult flies is unimportant unless tsetse control measures increase the mortality several times above the low natural rates. CONCLUSIONS: Formulae for predicting the probability that any given captured fly originated from various areas around the trap are produced. Using a mean daily step length (d) of 395m, typical of a savannah species of tsetse, any fly caught by a single trap in a 5-day trapping period could be regarded, with roughly 95% confidence, as originating from within a distance of 1.3km of the trap that is from an area of 5.3km2.

Scaling up of tsetse control to eliminate Gambian sleeping sickness in northern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit Trypanosoma brucei gambiense which causes Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) in Central and West Africa. Several countries use Tiny Targets, comprising insecticide-treated panels of material which attract and kill tsetse, as part of their national programmes to eliminate gHAT. We studied how the scale and arrangement of target deployment affected the efficacy of control. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Between 2012 and 2016, Tiny Targets were deployed biannually along the larger rivers of Arua, Maracha, Koboko and Yumbe districts in North West Uganda with the aim of reducing the abundance of tsetse to interrupt transmission. The extent of these deployments increased from ~250 km2 in 2012 to ~1600 km2 in 2015. The impact of Tiny Targets on tsetse populations was assessed by analysing catches of tsetse from a network of monitoring traps; sub-samples of captured tsetse were dissected to estimate their age and infection status. In addition, the condition of 780 targets (~195/district) was assessed for up to six months after deployment. In each district, mean daily catches of tsetse (G. fuscipes fuscipes) from monitoring traps declined significantly by >80% following the deployment of targets. The reduction was apparent for several kilometres on adjacent lengths of the same river but not in other rivers a kilometre or so away. Expansion of the operational area did not always produce higher levels of suppression or detectable change in the age structure or infection rates of the population, perhaps due to the failure to treat the smaller streams and/or invasion from adjacent untreated areas. The median effective life of a Tiny Target was 61 (41.8-80.2, 95% CI) days. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling-up of tsetse control reduced the population of tsetse by >80% across the intervention area. Even better control might be achievable by tackling invasion of flies from infested areas within and outside the current intervention area. This might involve deploying more targets, especially along smaller rivers, and extending the effective life of Tiny Targets.

Environmental mutations in the Campo focus challenge elimination of sleeping sickness transmission in Cameroon.

Sleeping sickness is still prevalent in Campo, southern Cameroon, despite the efforts of World Health Organization and the National Control Programme in screening and treating cases. Reducing disease incidence still further may need the control of tsetse vectors. We update entomological and parasitological parameters necessary to guide tsetse control in Campo. Tsetse flies were trapped, their apparent densities were evaluated as the number of flies captured per trap per day and mapped using GIS tools. Polymerase chain reaction based methods were used to identify their trypanosome infection rates. Glossina palpalis palpalis was the dominant vector species representing 93.42% and 92.85% of flies captured respectively during the heavy and light dry seasons. This species presented high densities, that is, 3.87, 95% CI [3.84-3.91], and 2.51, 95% CI [2.49-2.53] flies/trap/day in the two seasons. Moreover, 16.79% (of 1054) and 20.23% (of 1132 flies) were found infected with at least 1 trypanosome species for the 2 seasons respectively, Trypanosoma congolense being the most prevalent species, and Trypanosoma. brucei gambiense identified in 4 samples. Tsetse flies are abundant in Campo and present high trypanosome infection rates. The detection of tsetse infected with human trypanosomes near the newly created palm grove show workers' exposition. Tsetse densities maps built will guide vector control with 'Tiny Targets'.

Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, a programme of vector control, screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad. To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse, we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model, fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015. The present study outlines refinements to the model to: (1) Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting; (2) quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction; and (3) predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies. METHOD: Our previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data (2000-2019) and a series of model refinements. These include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method (increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured). A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the models. RESULTS: We estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015, by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection, and 1.5-fold for stage 2. We find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific (95% credible interval (CI) 99.9-100%, Specificity = 99.9%), the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false positives. We also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting (95% CI 96.1-99.6%, Reduction = 99.1%) is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring traps. In line with previous results, the model suggests that transmission was interrupted in 2015 due to intensified interventions. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that additional confirmatory testing is performed in Mandoul to ensure the endgame can be carefully monitored. More specific measurement of cases, would better inform when it is safe to stop active screening and vector control, provided there is a strong passive surveillance system in place.

'Where are the dead flies!': perceptions of local communities towards the deployment of Tiny Targets to control tsetse in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The National Programme for the control of human African trypanosomiasis in Democratic Republic of Congo includes a large-scale vector control operation using Tiny Targets. These are small panels of insecticide-impregnated cloth that are deployed in riverine habitat where tsetse flies concentrate. The effectiveness of Tiny Targets depends partly on acceptance by local communities. In 2018, we conducted research to explore the perception and acceptability of Tiny Targets in two different village clusters where Tiny Targets had been deployed by the local community or external teams. We conducted fourteen focus group discussions and seven semistructured interviews in three villages from each cluster in the Yasa Bonga health zone. Our findings showed that acceptability was better in the cluster where communities were involved in the deployment of Tiny Targets. Also in this cluster, awareness about Tiny Targets was satisfactory and the project was implemented within local customs, which promoted a positive perception of Tiny Targets and their benefits. In the cluster where external teams deployed Tiny Targets, a lack of information and communication, stereotypes applied by communities towards the deployment teams and the impression of inadequate respect for local customs led to anxiety and a misleading interpretation of the purpose of Tiny Targets and negatively influenced acceptability. This study highlights the importance of involving communities for programme acceptance. Our research underlined how awareness campaigns and communication are essential, but also how working within the scope of community social norms and customs are equally important. Prospects for the successful use of Tiny Targets are greater when communities are involved because the use can be adapted to social norms.

The cost of tsetse control using 'Tiny Targets' in the sleeping sickness endemic forest area of Bonon in Côte d'Ivoire: Implications for comparing costs across different settings.

BACKGROUND: Work to control the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), or sleeping sickness, is now directed towards ending transmission of the parasite by 2030. In order to supplement gHAT case-finding and treatment, since 2011 tsetse control has been implemented using Tiny Targets in a number of gHAT foci. As this intervention is extended to new foci, it is vital to understand the costs involved. Costs have already been analysed for the foci of Arua in Uganda and Mandoul in Chad. This paper examines the costs of controlling Glossina palpalis palpalis in the focus of Bonon in Côte d'Ivoire from 2016 to 2017. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Some 2000 targets were placed throughout the main gHAT transmission area of 130 km2 at a density of 14.9 per km2. The average annual cost was USD 0.5 per person protected, USD 31.6 per target deployed of which 12% was the cost of the target itself, or USD 471.2 per km2 protected. Broken down by activity, 54% was for deployment and maintenance of targets, 34% for tsetse surveys/monitoring and 12% for sensitising populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The cost of tsetse control per km2 of the gHAT focus protected in Bonon was more expensive than in Chad or Uganda, while the cost per km2 treated, that is the area where the targets were actually deployed, was cheaper. Per person protected, the Bonon cost fell between the two, with Uganda cheaper and Chad more expensive. In Bonon, targets were deployed throughout the protected area, because G. p. palpalis was present everywhere, whereas in Chad and Uganda G. fuscipes fuscipes was found only the riverine fringing vegetation. Thus, differences between gHAT foci, in terms of tsetse ecology and human geography, impact on the cost-effectiveness of tsetse control. It also demonstrates the need to take into account both the area treated and protected alongside other impact indicators, such as the cost per person protected.

Spatial analysis of G.f.fuscipes abundance in Uganda using Poisson and Zero-Inflated Poisson regression models.

BACKGROUND: Tsetse flies are the major vectors of human trypanosomiasis of the form Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense and T.b.gambiense. They are widely spread across the sub-Saharan Africa and rendering a lot of challenges to both human and animal health. This stresses effective agricultural production and productivity in Africa. Delimiting the extent and magnitude of tsetse coverage has been a challenge over decades due to limited resources and unsatisfactory technology. In a bid to overcome these limitations, this study attempted to explore modelling skills that can be applied to spatially estimate tsetse abundance in the country using limited tsetse data and a set of remote-sensed environmental variables. METHODOLOGY: Entomological data for the period 2008-2018 as used in the model were obtained from various sources and systematically assembled using a structured protocol. Data harmonisation for the purposes of responsiveness and matching was carried out. The key tool for tsetse trapping was itemized as pyramidal trap in many instances and biconical trap in others. Based on the spatially explicit assembled data, we ran two regression models; standard Poisson and Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP), to explore the associations between tsetse abundance in Uganda and several environmental and climatic covariates. The covariate data were constituted largely by satellite sensor data in form of meteorological and vegetation surrogates in association with elevation and land cover data. We finally used the Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model to predict tsetse abundance due to its superiority over the standard Poisson after model fitting and testing using the Vuong Non-Nested statistic. RESULTS: A total of 1,187 tsetse sampling points were identified and considered as representative for the country. The model results indicated the significance and level of responsiveness of each covariate in influencing tsetse abundance across the study area. Woodland vegetation, elevation, temperature, rainfall, and dry season normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) were important in determining tsetse abundance and spatial distribution at varied scales. The resultant prediction map shows scaled tsetse abundance with estimated fitted numbers ranging from 0 to 59 flies per trap per day (FTD). Tsetse abundance was found to be largest at low elevations, in areas of high vegetative activity, in game parks, forests and shrubs during the dry season. There was very limited responsiveness of selected predictors to tsetse abundance during the wet season, matching the known fact that tsetse disperse most significantly during wet season. CONCLUSIONS: A methodology was advanced to enable compilation of entomological data for 10 years, which supported the generation of tsetse abundance maps for Uganda through modelling. Our findings indicate the spatial distribution of the G. f. fuscipes as; low 0-5 FTD (48%), medium 5.1-35 FTD (18%) and high 35.1-60 FTD (34%) grounded on seasonality. This approach, amidst entomological data shortages due to limited resources and absence of expertise, can be adopted to enable mapping of the vector to provide better decision support towards designing and implementing targeted tsetse and tsetse-transmitted African trypanosomiasis control strategies.

Estimating the impact of Tiny Targets in reducing the incidence of Gambian sleeping sickness in the North-west Uganda focus.

BACKGROUND: Riverine species of tsetse (Glossina) transmit Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, which causes Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), a neglected tropical disease. Uganda aims to eliminate gHAT as a public health problem through detection and treatment of human cases and vector control. The latter is being achieved through the deployment of 'Tiny Targets', insecticide-impregnated panels of material which attract and kill tsetse. We analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of cases of gHAT in Uganda during the period 2010-2019 to assess whether Tiny Targets have had an impact on disease incidence. METHODS: To quantify the deployment of Tiny Targets, we mapped the rivers and their associated watersheds in the intervention area. We then categorised each of these on a scale of 0-3 according to whether Tiny Targets were absent (0), present only in neighbouring watersheds (1), present in the watersheds but not all neighbours (2), or present in the watershed and all neighbours (3). We overlaid all cases that were diagnosed between 2000 and 2020 and assessed whether the probability of finding cases in a watershed changed following the deployment of targets. We also estimated the number of cases averted through tsetse control. RESULTS: We found that following the deployment of Tiny Targets in a watershed, there were fewer cases of HAT, with a sampled error probability of 0.007. We estimate that during the intervention period 2012-2019 we should have expected 48 cases (95% confidence intervals = 40-57) compared to the 36 cases observed. The results are robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Tiny Targets have reduced the incidence of gHAT by 25% in north-western Uganda.

Use of vector control to protect people from sleeping sickness in the focus of Bonon (Côte d'Ivoire).

BACKGROUND: Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a neglected tropical disease caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense transmitted by tsetse flies (Glossina). In Côte d'Ivoire, Bonon is the most important focus of gHAT, with 325 cases diagnosed from 2000 to 2015 and efforts against gHAT have relied largely on mass screening and treatment of human cases. We assessed whether the addition of tsetse control by deploying Tiny Targets offers benefit to sole reliance on the screen-and-treat strategy. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 2015, we performed a census of the human population of the Bonon focus, followed by an exhaustive entomological survey at 278 sites. After a public sensitization campaign, ~2000 Tiny Targets were deployed across an area of 130 km2 in February of 2016, deployment was repeated annually in the same month of 2017 and 2018. The intervention's impact on tsetse was evaluated using a network of 30 traps which were operated for 48 hours at three-month intervals from March 2016 to December 2018. A second comprehensive entomological survey was performed in December 2018 with traps deployed at 274 of the sites used in 2015. Sub-samples of tsetse were dissected and examined microscopically for presence of trypanosomes. The census recorded 26,697 inhabitants residing in 331 settlements. Prior to the deployment of targets, the mean catch of tsetse from the 30 monitoring traps was 12.75 tsetse/trap (5.047-32.203, 95%CI), i.e. 6.4 tsetse/trap/day. Following the deployment of Tiny Targets, mean catches ranged between 0.06 (0.016-0.260, 95%CI) and 0.55 (0.166-1.794, 95%CI) tsetse/trap, i.e. 0.03-0.28 tsetse/trap/day. During the final extensive survey performed in December 2018, 52 tsetse were caught compared to 1,909 in 2015, with 11.6% (5/43) and 23.1% (101/437) infected with Trypanosoma respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The annual deployment of Tiny Targets in the gHAT focus of Bonon reduced the density of Glossina palpalis palpalis by >95%. Tiny Targets offer a powerful addition to current strategies towards eliminating gHAT from Côte d'Ivoire.

Evaluation of improved coloured targets to control riverine tsetse in East Africa: A Bayesian approach.

BACKGROUND: Riverine tsetse (Glossina spp.) transmit Trypanosoma brucei gambiense which causes Gambian Human African Trypanosomiasis. Tiny Targets were developed for cost-effective riverine tsetse control, and comprise panels of insecticide-treated blue polyester fabric and black net that attract and kill tsetse. Versus typical blue polyesters, two putatively more attractive fabrics have been developed: Vestergaard ZeroFly blue, and violet. Violet was most attractive to savannah tsetse using large targets, but neither fabric has been tested for riverine tsetse using Tiny Targets. METHODS: We measured numbers of G. f. fuscipes attracted to electrified Tiny Targets in Kenya and Uganda. We compared violets, Vestergaard blues, and a typical blue polyester, using three replicated Latin squares experiments. We then employed Bayesian statistical analyses to generate expected catches for future target deployments incorporating uncertainty in model parameters, and prior knowledge from previous experiments. RESULTS: Expected catches for average future replicates of violet and Vestergaard blue targets were highly likely to exceed those for typical blue. Accounting for catch variability between replicates, it remained moderately probable (70-86% and 59-84%, respectively) that a given replicate of these targets would have a higher expected catch than typical blue on the same day at the same site. Meanwhile, expected catches for average violet replicates were, in general, moderately likely to exceed those for Vestergaard blue. However, the difference in medians was small, and accounting for catch variability, the probability that the expected catch for a violet replicate would exceed a Vestergaard blue equivalent was marginal (46-71%). CONCLUSION: Violet and Vestergaard ZeroFly blue are expected to outperform typical blue polyester in the Tiny Target configuration. Violet is unlikely to greatly outperform Vestergaard blue deployed in this way, but because violet is highly attractive to both riverine and savannah tsetse using different target designs, it may provide the more suitable general-purpose fabric.

Pharma to farmer: field challenges of optimizing trypanocide use in African animal trypanosomiasis.

Trypanocides are a key control component of African animal trypanosomiasis (AAT) in tsetse-infested areas of sub-Saharan Africa. While farmers are dependent upon trypanocides, recent research highlights their inappropriate and ineffective use, problems with drug quality, and treatment failure. There are currently gaps in knowledge and investment in inexpensive AAT diagnostics, understanding of drug resistance, and the effective use of trypanocides in the field. Without this important knowledge it is difficult to develop best practice and policy for existing drugs or to inform development and use of new drugs. There needs to be better understanding of the drivers and behavioural practices around trypanocide use so that they can be incorporated into sustainable solutions needed for the development of effective control of AAT.

Optimising passive surveillance of a neglected tropical disease in the era of elimination: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance is an essential component of global programs to eliminate infectious diseases and avert epidemics of (re-)emerging diseases. As the numbers of cases decline, costs of treatment and control diminish but those for surveillance remain high even after the 'last' case. Reducing surveillance may risk missing persistent or (re-)emerging foci of disease. Here, we use a simulation-based approach to determine the minimal number of passive surveillance sites required to ensure maximum coverage of a population at-risk (PAR) of an infectious disease. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For this study, we use Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) in north-western Uganda, a neglected tropical disease (NTD) which has been reduced to historically low levels (<1000 cases/year globally), as an example. To quantify travel time to diagnostic facilities, a proxy for surveillance coverage, we produced a high spatial-resolution resistance surface and performed cost-distance analyses. We simulated travel time for the PAR with different numbers (1-170) and locations (170,000 total placement combinations) of diagnostic facilities, quantifying the percentage of the PAR within 1h and 5h travel of the facilities, as per in-country targets. Our simulations indicate that a 70% reduction (51/170) in diagnostic centres still exceeded minimal targets of coverage even for remote populations, with >95% of a total PAR of ~3million individuals living ≤1h from a diagnostic centre, and we demonstrate an approach to best place these facilities, informing a minimal impact scale back. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight that surveillance of g-HAT in north-western Uganda can be scaled back without substantially reducing coverage of the PAR. The methodology described can contribute to cost-effective and equable strategies for the surveillance of NTDs and other infectious diseases approaching elimination or (re-)emergence.

Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe. METHODS: Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016. RESULTS: We produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000-2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.

Impact of tiny targets on Glossina fuscipes quanzensis, the primary vector of human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Over the past 20 years there has been a >95% reduction in the number of Gambian Human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) cases reported globally, largely as a result of large-scale active screening and treatment programmes. There are however still foci where the disease persists, particularly in parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Additional control efforts such as tsetse control using Tiny Targets may therefore be required to achieve g-HAT elimination goals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of Tiny Targets within DRC. In 2015-2017, pre- and post-intervention tsetse abundance data were collected from 1,234 locations across three neighbouring Health Zones (Yasa Bonga, Mosango, Masi Manimba). Remotely sensed dry season data were combined with pre-intervention tsetse presence/absence data from 332 locations within a species distribution modelling framework to produce a habitat suitability map. The impact of Tiny Targets on the tsetse population was then evaluated by fitting a generalised linear mixed model to the relative fly abundance data collected from 889 post-intervention monitoring sites within Yasa Bonga, with habitat suitability, proximity to the intervention and intervention duration as covariates. Immediately following the introduction of the intervention, we observe a dramatic reduction in fly catches by > 85% (pre-intervention: 0.78 flies/trap/day, 95% CI 0.676-0.900; 3 month post-intervention: 0.11 flies/trap/day, 95% CI 0.070-0.153) which is sustained throughout the study period. Declines in catches were negatively associated with proximity to Tiny Targets, and while habitat suitability is positively associated with abundance its influence is reduced in the presence of the intervention. This study adds to the body of evidence demonstrating the impact of Tiny Targets on tsetse across a range of ecological settings, and further characterises the factors which modify its impact. The habitat suitability maps have the potential to guide the expansion of tsetse control activities in this area.

Feasibility of community-based control of tsetse: A pilot project using Tiny Targets in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) is a neglected tropical disease caused by trypanosomes transmitted by tsetse flies. 70% of cases in 2019 (604/863) occurred in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The national programme for g-HAT elimination in DRC includes a large-scale deployment of Tiny Targets which attract and kill tsetse. This intervention is directed by vector-control specialists with small teams, moving in canoes, deploying Tiny Targets along riverbanks where tsetse concentrate. While the targets are deployed in communal areas, and the method is cheap and easy-to-use, local people have little involvement. This study aimed to evaluate if a community-led vector control programme was feasible in the context of DRC's g-HAT elimination programme. In 2017, a community-led intervention was implemented in three villages in the Kwilu province of DRC. This intervention was evaluated through an Action Research with qualitative data collected through 21 focus group discussions and 289 hours of observation. Also the geographical location and quality of each Tiny Targets were collected (total number deployed = 2429). This research revealed that community-based approach largely worked: people were motivated and proactive, showed a good application of the acquired knowledge resulting in an effective deployment of Tiny Targets. In addition, our study provided evidence that acceptability of the targets by the community can improve deployment quality by reducing target loss and damage. The approach was feasible in places where canoe-based teams could not reach. Against these advantages, a community-based approach was time-consuming and had to adapt to the seasonal and daily rhythms of the community. A community-based approach for tsetse control is technically feasible and recommended but limits to the speed and scale of the approach restraints its application as a standalone strategy in a large-scale national programme aiming to eliminate g-HAT in a short timeframe.

Delivering 'tiny targets' in a remote region of southern Chad: a cost analysis of tsetse control in the Mandoul sleeping sickness focus.

BACKGROUND: Since 2012, the World Health Organisation and the countries affected by the Gambian form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) have been committed to eliminating the disease, primarily through active case-finding and treatment. To interrupt transmission of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and move more rapidly towards elimination, it was decided to add vector control using 'tiny targets'. Chad's Mandoul HAT focus extends over 840 km2, with a human population of 39,000 as well as 14,000 cattle and 3000 pigs. Some 2700 tiny targets were deployed annually from 2014 onwards. METHODS: A protocol was developed for the routine collection of tsetse control costs during all field missions. This was implemented throughout 2015 and 2016, and combined with the recorded costs of the preliminary survey and sensitisation activities. The objective was to calculate the full costs at local prices in Chad. Costs were adjusted to remove research components and to ensure that items outside the project budget lines were included, such as administrative overheads and a share of staff salaries. RESULTS: Targets were deployed at about 60 per linear km of riverine tsetse habitat. The average annual cost of the operation was USD 56,113, working out at USD 66.8 per km2 protected and USD 1.4 per person protected. Of this, 12.8% was an annual share of the initial tsetse survey, 40.6% for regular tsetse monitoring undertaken three times a year, 36.8% for target deployment and checking and 9.8% for sensitisation of local populations. Targets accounted for 8.3% of the cost, and the cost of delivering a target was USD 19.0 per target deployed. CONCLUSIONS: This study has confirmed that tiny targets provide a consistently low cost option for controlling tsetse in gambiense HAT foci. Although the study area is remote with a tsetse habitat characterised by wide river marshes, the costs were similar to those of tiny target work in Uganda, with some differences, in particular a higher cost per target delivered. As was the case in Uganda, the cost was between a quarter and a third that of historical target operations using full size targets or traps.