Protocolo de la DDHealth: Justificación, diseño y realización de una encuesta transversal de salud sociodemográfica, alfabetización sanitaria y brecha digital en 2.000 adultos de cincuenta a setenta y nueve años residentes en España en 2022 / DDHealth Protocol: Justification, design and implementation of a cross-sectional survey of sociodemographic health, health literacy and digital divide in 2,000 adults aged fifty to seventy-nine residing in Spain in 2022

Métodos: DDHealth pretende abordar dos aspectos innovadores y oportunos que se ha postulado que contribuyen a las desigualdades socioeconómicas en salud. El primero es la brecha digital socioeconómica, que se refiere a que las capacidades y posibilidades de acceder a la tecnología y usar internet son mayores entre las clases sociales altas en comparación con las bajas. La segunda es la alfabetización sanitaria, que se refiere a la capacidad de los individuos para satisfacer y comprender las complejas demandas de promoción y mantenimiento de la salud en la sociedad moderna. El estudio llevó a cabo más de 2.000 entrevistas entre residentes en España de entre cincuenta y setenta y nueve años de edad entre marzo y abril de 2022, utilizando un enfoque de entrevista telefónica asistida por ordenador (CATI). El cuestionario tiene cuatro módulos diferentes: sociodemográfico; brecha digital; salud; alfabetización sanitaria. Los datos anonimizados están disponibles a través del enlace: https://dataverse.csuc.cat/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.34810/data765.Consideraciones éticas y discusión: La DDHealth permite abordar dimensiones innovadoras acerca de los determinantes sociales de la salud en España. Los datos de la DDHealth están disponibles para investigadores externos con fines científicos previa solicitud de una propuesta de investigación razonable.(AU)

Background: Socioeconomic inequalities in health persist in Spain. The DDHealth project aims to address two timely innovative aspects that have been postulated to contribute to socioeconomic inequalities in health. Methods: DDHealth aims to address two innovative and timely aspects that have been proposed to contribute to socioeconomic health inequalities. The first one is the socioeconomic digital divide, which refers to the greater capabilities and opportunities to access technology and use the internet among higher social classes compared to lower ones. The second aspect is health literacy, which refers to individuals’ capacity to meet and understand the complex demands of health promotion and maintenance in modern society. The study conducted over 2,000 interviews among residents in Spain aged between fifty and seventy-nine years old from March to April 2022, using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) approach. The questionnaire comprises four different modules: sociodemogra-phic; digital divide; health; health literacy. The anonymized data are available through the following link: https://dataverse.csuc.cat/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.34810/data765ETHICAL Considerations and Discussion: DDHealth enables addressing innovative dimensions concerning the social determi-nants of health in Spain. The data are available to external researchers for scientific purposes upon request of a reasonable research proposal.

[DDHealth Protocol: Justification, design and implementation of a cross-sectional survey of sociodemographic health, health literacy and digital divide in 2,000 adults aged fifty to seventy-nine residing in Spain in 2022]. / Protocolo de la DDHealth: Justificación, diseño y realización de una encuesta transversal de salud sociodemográfica, alfabetización sanitaria y brecha digital en 2.000 adultos de cincuenta a setenta y nueve años residentes en España en 2022.

Socioeconomic inequalities in health persist in Spain. The DDHealth project aims to address two timely innovative aspects that have been postulated to contribute to socioeconomic inequalities in health. DDHealth aims to address two innovative and timely aspects that have been proposed to contribute to socioeconomic health inequalities. The first one is the socioeconomic digital divide, which refers to the greater capabilities and opportunities to access technology and use the internet among higher social classes compared to lower ones. The second aspect is health literacy, which refers to individuals' capacity to meet and understand the complex demands of health promotion and maintenance in modern society. The study conducted over 2,000 interviews among residents in Spain aged between fifty and seventy-nine years old from March to April 2022, using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) approach. The questionnaire comprises four different modules: sociodemographic; digital divide; health; health literacy. The anonymized data are available through the following link: https://dataverse.csuc.cat/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.34810/data765. DDHealth enables addressing innovative dimensions concerning the social determinants of health in Spain. The data are available to external researchers for scientific purposes upon request of a reasonable research proposal.

Las desigualdades socioeconómicas en salud persisten en España. La encuesta DDHealth se propone para dar respuesta a parte de las razones que explican las desigualdades socioeconómicas en salud. DDHealth pretende abordar dos aspectos innovadores y oportunos que se ha postulado que contribuyen a las desigualdades socioeconómicas en salud. El primero es la brecha digital socioeconómica, que se refiere a que las capacidades y posibilidades de acceder a la tecnología y usar internet son mayores entre las clases sociales altas en comparación con las bajas. La segunda es la alfabetización sanitaria, que se refiere a la capacidad de los individuos para satisfacer y comprender las complejas demandas de promoción y mantenimiento de la salud en la sociedad moderna. El estudio llevó a cabo más de 2.000 entrevistas entre residentes en España de entre cincuenta y setenta y nueve años de edad entre marzo y abril de 2022, utilizando un enfoque de entrevista telefónica asistida por ordenador (CATI). El cuestionario tiene cuatro módulos diferentes: sociodemográfico; brecha digital; salud; alfabetización sanitaria. Los datos anonimizados están disponibles a través del enlace: https://dataverse.csuc.cat/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.34810/data765. La DDHealth permite abordar dimensiones innovadoras acerca de los determinantes sociales de la salud en España. Los datos de la DDHealth están disponibles para investigadores externos con fines científicos previa solicitud de una propuesta de investigación razonable.

Age and cause-of-death contributions to educational inequalities in life expectancy and lifespan variation in a low-mortality country: A cross-sectional study of 1.67 million deaths in Spain (2016-19).

Background: We aim to assess the age- and cause-specific contributions to differences in life expectancy and lifespan variation between the high- and low-educated groups in Spain. Methods: We use sex-, age-, education- and cause-specific mortality and population data for individuals aged 30 and over for 2016-19 in Spain. We estimated life expectancies, and standard deviations of the age-at-death distribution (lifespan variation), and we disentangled the contribution of age-causes of death to educational differences in both indicators. Findings: Life expectancy at age 30 was higher for high-educated groups compared to low-educated groups, 5.5 years for males and 3.0 years for females. Lifespan variation was higher for low-educated groups compared to high-educated groups, 2.9 years for males and 2.2 years for females. The main contributors to the life expectancy gaps in males were lung cancer (0.58 years) and ischaemic heart diseases (0.42 years), and in females were other cardiovascular causes (0.26 years), and ischaemic heart diseases (0.22 years). The main contributors to the lifespan variation gaps were in males lung cancer (-0.25 years) and ischaemic heart diseases (-0.22 years), while in females were other neoplasms and other diseases of the nervous system. Interpretation: Whereas behavioural causes are more important in explaining educational inequalities in mortality among men, ageing-related causes of death seem more important among women. Attempts at narrowing socioeconomic gaps in mortality may benefit from applying gender-specific preventive policy measures.

Trends in cause-specific mortality: deaths of despair in Spain, 1980-2019.

BACKGROUND: Research from various countries has shown increases in alcohol- and drug-related deaths and suicide, known as 'deaths of despair' over recent decades, particularly among low-educated middle-aged individuals. However, little is known about trends in death-of-despair causes in Spain. Therefore, we aim to descriptively examine this among 25-64-year-olds from 1980 to 2019 and by educational attainment for the years 2017-19. METHODS: We obtained mortality and population data from the National Institute of Statistics to estimate age-standardized mortality rates and assess educational inequalities using the relative index of inequality (RII). RESULTS: Deaths of despair as a share of total mortality slightly increased from 2000 onwards, particularly among 25-64-year-old men (from 9 to 10%). Only alcohol-related mortality declined relatively more since 1980 compared with all-cause mortality. Regarding educational differences, low-educated men presented higher mortality rates in all death-of-despair causes (alcohol-related: RII 3.54 (95% CI: 2.21-5.66); drug-related: RII 3.49 (95% CI: 1.80-6.77); suicide: RII 1.97 (95% CI: 1.49-2.61)). Women noteworthy differences were only observed for alcohol-related (RII 3.50 (95% CI: 2.13-5.75)). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest an increasing proportion of deaths of despair among 25-64-year-olds since 2000, particularly among men. Public health policies are needed to reduce and prevent these premature and preventable causes of mortality.

Healthy lifespan inequality: morbidity compression from a global perspective.

Current measures of population health lack indicators capturing the variability in age-at-morbidity onset, an important marker to assess the timing patterns of individuals' health deterioration and evaluate the compression of morbidity. We provide global, regional, and national estimates of the variability in morbidity onset from 1990 to 2019 using indicators of healthy lifespan inequality (HLI). Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we reconstruct age-at-death distributions to calculate lifespan inequality (LI), and age-at-morbidity onset distributions to calculate HLI. We measure LI and HLI with the standard deviation. Between 1990 and 2019, global HLI decreased from 24.74 years to 21.92, and has been decreasing in all regions except in high-income countries, where it has remained stable. Countries with high HLI are more present in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, whereas low HLI values are predominant in high-income countries and central and eastern Europe. HLI tends to be higher for females than for males, and HLI tends to be higher than LI. Globally, between 1990 and 2019 HLI at age 65 increased from 6.83 years to 7.44 for females, and from 6.23 to 6.96 for males. Improvements in longevity are not necessarily accompanied by further reductions in HLI among longevity vanguard countries. Morbidity is compressing, except in high-income countries, where it stagnates. The variability in the ages at morbidity onset tends to be larger than the variability in lifespans, and such divergence broadens over time. As longevity increases worldwide, the locus of health inequality is moving from death-related inequalities to disease- and disability-centered ones.

Cause-specific mortality in Spain during the pandemic: educational differences and its impact on life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy in Spain fell by 1 year between 2018/19 and 2020. Yet, little is known on the impact on cause-of-death (COD) dynamics and educational inequalities therein. METHODS: We use individual-level death counts data by age, sex, education and multiple causes of death (MCOD) and the corresponding population exposures from national registers in Spain. Deaths were examined both as underlying cause of death (UCOD) and as contributory cause. We estimated life expectancies and lifespan inequalities by subpopulation groups and decomposed life expectancy differences between 2018/19 and 2020 by age groups and COD to assess the impact of COVID-19 (as MCOD) and major UCOD. RESULTS: COVID-19 contributed to a decline in male and female life expectancy in Spain between 2018/19 and 2020 (respectively, -1.7 and -1.4 years). Conversely, cancer, respiratory and circulatory system diseases and ill-defined causes as UCOD contributed to life expectancy increases. Life expectancy declines equalled -1.4 years among the low-educated in both sexes (population 30+), -1.0 and -0.7 years among middle-educated and -1.1 and -0.9 years among high-educated men and women. Without COVID-19, educational inequalities in life expectancy would have remained at similar levels, whereas lifespan variation would have been lower (-22% for women and -8% for men). CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy declines in Spain in 2020 were mainly driven by COVID-19, with possible substitution effects, especially for respiratory system diseases (fewer deaths compared to 2018/19 when coded as UCOD but more as contributing cause). We therefore advocate analysing MCOD when studying changing COD patterns during the pandemic.

Alcohol-related mortality in four European countries: A multiple-cause-of-death study.

INTRODUCTION: The impact of conditions that partly or indirectly contribute to drinking-related mortality is usually underestimated. We investigate all alcohol-related multiple (underlying and contributory) causes of death and compare mortality distributions in countries with different levels and patterns of drinking. METHOD: Analysis of population-level mortality data for persons aged 20 and over in Austria, Czechia, Poland and Spain. Age-standardised death rates and standardised ratios of multiple to underlying cause were calculated for alcohol-related causes of death. RESULTS: Multiple-cause mortality ranged from 20 to 58 deaths per 100,000 for men and from 5 to 16 per 100,000 for women. Liver diseases were the most common underlying and multiple causes, but mental and behavioural disorders were the second or third, depending on country and sex, most prevalent multiple mentions. Two distinct age patterns of alcohol-related mortality were observed: in Czechia and Poland an inverted-U distribution with a peak at the age of 60-64, in Austria and Spain a distribution increasing with age and then levelling off for older age groups. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The importance of alcohol-related conditions that indirectly impact mortality can be re-assessed with the use of contributory mentions. The multiple-cause-of-death approach provides convergent results for countries characterised by similar patterns of alcohol consumption. Multiple-cause mortality was almost double the level of mortality with alcohol as the underlying cause, except in Poland. Mental and behavioural disorders were mostly certified as contributory to other, non-alcohol-related underlying causes of death.

Cause-of-Death Diversity From a Multiple-Cause Perspective in the United States.

Cause-of-death diversity captures the variability of deaths across causes and is an important marker of heterogeneity in a population's health. We contribute to the debate of cause-of-death diversity dynamics by following a novel multiple causes of death (MCOD) approach and applying it to the U.S. context between 2003 and 2018 and across education groups. Results show that cause-of-death diversity increased over this period, especially up to 2012. These trends were mainly driven by increases in the groups aged 65 years or more. The inclusion of MCOD resulted in higher increases in cause-of-death diversity over time compared with merely using underlying causes of death, except for the 85 or more age group, where no difference was observed for males and a reverted gradient was observed for females. Results by educational attainment reveal lower diversity among the highest educated groups and widening differences across groups from around 2012 onward. The clear educational gradient observed at ages 30-64 diminished at older ages. The observed increases in cause-of-death diversity should be monitored to better understand mortality dynamics in aging populations. Our new MCOD diversity measures suggest that traditional approaches relying on single causes of death might be underestimating cause-of-death diversity dynamics, particularly for males.

Frailty at death: An examination of multiple causes of death in four low mortality countries in 2017.

BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of frailty in aging populations represents a major social and public health challenge which warrants a better understanding of the contribution of frailty to the morbid process. OBJECTIVE: To examine frailty-related mortality as reported on the death certificate in France, Italy, Spain and the United States in 2017. METHODS: We identify frailty at death for the population aged 50 years and over in France, Italy, Spain and the United States. We estimate the proportions of deaths by sex, age group and country with specific frailty-related ICD-codes on the death certificate 1) as the underlying cause of death (UC), 2) elsewhere in Part I (sequence of diseases or conditions or events leading directly to death), and 3) anywhere in Part II (conditions that do not belong in Part I but whose presence contributed to death). RESULTS: The age-standardized proportion of deaths with frailty at ages 50 and over is highest in Italy (25.0%), then in France (24.1%) and Spain (17.3%), and lowest in the United States (14.0%). Cross-country differences are smaller when frailty-related codes are either the underlying cause of the death or reported in Part II. Frailty-related mortality increases with age and is higher among females than males. Dementia is the most frequently reported frailty-related code. CONCLUSIONS: Notable cross-country differences were found in the prevalence and the type of frailty-related symptoms at death even after adjusting for differential age distributions.

Estimation of smoking-related mortality and its contribution to educational inequalities in life expectancy in Spain: an observational study, 2016-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate smoking-related mortality and its contribution to educational inequalities in life expectancy in Spain. DESIGN: Nationwide, observational study from 2016 to 2019. Population-attributable fractions were used to estimate age, sex and education-specific cause-of-death smoking-attributable mortality. Life table techniques and decomposition methods were used to estimate potential gains in life expectancy at age 35 and the cause-specific contributions of smoking-related mortality to life expectancy differences across educational groups. SETTING: Spain. PARTICIPANTS: We use cause-specific mortality data from population registers and smoking prevalence from the National and the European Health Survey for Spain from 2017 and 2019/2020, respectively. RESULTS: We estimated 219 086 smoking-related deaths during 2016-2019, equalling 13% of all deaths, 83.7% of those in men. In the absence of smoking, potential gains in male life expectancy were higher among the low-educated than the high-educated (3.1 vs 2.1 years). For women, educational differences were less and also in the opposite direction (0.6 vs 0.9 years). The contribution of smoking to life expectancy differences between high-educated and low-educated groups accounted for 1.5 years among men, and -0.2 years among women. For men, the contribution of smoking to these differences was mostly driven by cancer in middle age, cardiometabolic diseases at younger ages and respiratory diseases at older ages. For women, the contribution to this gap, although negligible, was driven by cancer at older ages among the higher educated. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking remains a relevant preventable risk factor of premature mortality in Spain, disproportionately affecting life expectancy of low-educated men.

Socioeconomic inequalities in physiological risk biomarkers and the role of lifestyles among Russians aged 35-69 years.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular (CVD) health outcomes are well documented. While Russia has one of the highest levels of CVD mortality in the world, the literature on contemporary socio-economic inequalities in biomarker CVD risk factors is sparse. This paper aims to assess the extent and the direction of SEP inequalities in established physiological CVD risk biomarkers, and to explore the role of lifestyle factors in explaining SEP inequalities in physiological CVD risk biomarkers. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from a general population-based survey of Russians aged 35-69 years living in two cities (n = 4540, Know Your Heart study 2015-18). Logistic models were used to assess the associations between raised physiological risk biomarkers levels (blood pressure levels, cholesterol levels, triglycerides, HbA1C, and C-reactive protein) and socioeconomic position (SEP) (education and household financial constraints) adjusting for age, obesity, smoking, alcohol and health-care seeking behavior. RESULTS: High education was negatively associated with a raised risk of blood pressure (systolic and diastolic) and C-reactive protein for both men and women. High education was positively associated with total cholesterol, with higher HDL levels among women, and with low triglycerides and HbA1c levels among men. For the remaining risk biomarkers, we found little statistical support for SEP inequalities. Adjustment for lifestyle factors, and particularly BMI and waist-hip ratio, led to a reduction in the observed SEP inequalities in raised biomarkers risk levels, especially among women. High financial constraints were weakly associated with high risk biomarkers levels, except for strong evidence for an association with C-reactive protein (men). CONCLUSIONS: Notable differences in risk biomarkers inequalities were observed according to the SEP measure employed. Clear educational inequalities in raised physiological risk biomarkers levels, particularly in blood pressure and C-reactive protein were seen in Russia and are partly explained by lifestyle factors, particularly obesity among women. These findings provide evidence-based information on the need for tackling health inequalities in the Russian population, which may help to further contribute to CVD mortality decline.

Educational differences in alcohol-related mortality and their impact on life expectancy and lifespan variation in Spain (2016-2018): a cross-sectional analysis using multiple causes of death.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in alcohol-related mortality in Spain exists, and are postulated to contribute to inequalities in all-cause mortality. We aim to assess absolute and relative educational inequalities in alcohol-related mortality, and to estimate the role of alcohol in educational inequalities in both life expectancy and lifespan variation in Spain. METHODS: We used multiple cause-of-death (MCOD) mortality data for individuals aged 30 and over for Spain (2016-2018) by educational attainment. We estimated by sex and educational attainment age-standardised alcohol-attributable mortality rates, relative and absolute indices of educational inequalities; and total life expectancy and lifespan variation at age 30 for all-cause mortality and after eliminating alcohol-attributable mortality. RESULTS: The use of MCOD resulted in an additional 2543 annual alcohol-related deaths (+75% among men and +50% among women) compared with estimates derived from underlying causes of death. In absolute terms, educational inequalities were the highest among men aged 45-84 and among women aged 45-64. In relative terms, higher inequalities raised in working ages, whereas at older ages inequalities tended to be lower, although still important among men. Alcohol contributed to educational inequalities in life expectancy (men: 0.13 years (3.2%); women 0.02 years (0.7%)) and lifespan variation (2.1% and 1.4% for men and women, respectively). CONCLUSION: Alcohol consumption remains an important lifestyle habit to be tackled in order to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Spain, particularly among men.

Alcohol and educational inequalities: Hazardous drinking prevalence and all-cause mortality by hazardous drinking group in people aged 50 and older in Europe.

BACKGROUND: We examined educational inequalities in hazardous drinking prevalence among individuals aged 50 or more in 14 European countries, and explored educational inequalities in mortality in hazardous drinkers in European regions.Methods: We analyzed data from waves 4, 5 and 6 of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We estimated age-standardized hazardous drinking prevalence, and prevalence ratios (PR) of hazardous drinking by country and educational level using Poisson regression models with robust variance. We estimated the relative index of inequality (RII) for all-cause mortality among hazardous drinkers and non-hazardous drinkers using Cox proportional hazards regression models and for each region (North, South, East and West).Results: In men, educational inequalities in hazardous drinking were not observed (PRmedium = 1.09 [95%CI: 0.98-1.21] and PRhigh = 0.99 [95%CI: 0.88-1.10], ref. low), while in they were observed in women, having the highest hazardous drinking prevalence in the highest educational levels (PRmedium = 1.28 [95%CI: 1.15-1.42] and PRhigh = 1.53 [95%CI: 1.36-1.72]). Overall, the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in all-cause mortality among hazardous drinkers was 1.12 [95%CI: 1.03-1.22] among men and 1.10 [95%CI: 0.97-1.25] among women. Educational inequalities among hazardous drinkers were observed in Eastern Europe for both men (RIIhazardous = 1.21 [95%CI: 1.01-1.45]) and women (RIIhazardous = 1.46 [95%CI: 1.13-1.87]). Educational inequalities in mortality among non-hazardous drinkers were observed in Southern, Western and Eastern Europe among men, and in Eastern Europe among women.Conclusions: Higher educational attainment is positively associated with hazardous drinking prevalence among women, but not among men in most of the analyzed European countries. Clear educational inequalities in mortality among hazardous drinkers were only observed in Eastern Europe. Further research on the associations between alcohol use and inequalities in all-cause mortality in different regions is needed.

The combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Smoking, obesity and alcohol abuse greatly affect mortality and exhibit a distinct time dynamic, with their prevalence and associated mortality rates increasing and (eventually) declining over time. Their combined impact on secular trends in life expectancy is unknown but is relevant for understanding these trends. We therefore estimate the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe. METHODS: We used estimated national age-specific smoking-, obesity- and alcohol-attributable mortality fractions for 30 European countries by sex, 1990-2014, which we aggregated multiplicatively to obtain lifestyle-attributable mortality. We estimated potential gains in life expectancy by eliminating lifestyle-attributable mortality and compared past trends in life expectancy at birth (e0) with and without lifestyle-attributable mortality. We examined all countries combined, by region and individually. RESULTS: Among men, the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on e0 declined from 6.6 years in 1990 to 5.8 years in 2014, mainly due to declining smoking-attributable mortality. Among women, the combined impact increased from 1.9 to 2.3 years due to mortality increases in all three lifestyle-related factors. The observed increase in e0 over the 1990-2014 period was 5.0 years for men and 4.0 years for women. After excluding lifestyle-attributable mortality, this increase would have been 4.2-4.3 years for both men and women. CONCLUSION: Without the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol, the increase over time in life expectancy at birth would have been smaller among men but larger among women, resulting in a stable increase in e0, parallel for men and women.

Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in France Using a Novel Generalizable Age-Period-Cohort Projection Methodology.

AIM: To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. METHODS: For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). RESULTS: Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6-14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1-23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7-1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2-2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). CONCLUSION: Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France's levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.