ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to propose reference values for day-to-day home blood pressure (BP) variability that align with the established hypertension threshold of home BP for the risk of two different outcomes: cardiovascular mortality and cognitive decline. METHODS: This prospective study was conducted in Ohasama town, Japan, with 1212 participants assessed for cardiovascular mortality risk (age: 64.7âyears, 33.6% men). Additionally, 678 participants (age: 62.7âyears, 31.1% men) were assessed for cognitive decline risk (Mini-Mental Scale Examination score <24). The within-individual coefficient of variation of home morning SBP (HSBP) was used as the index of day-to-day BP variability (%). Adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the HSBP-CV values, which provided the 10-year outcome risk at an HSBP of 135âmmHg. RESULTS: A total of 114 cardiovascular deaths and 85 events of cognitive decline (mean follow-up:13.9 and 9.6âyears, respectively) were identified. HSBP and HSBP-coefficient of variation (HSBP-CV) were associated with increased risks for both outcomes, with adjusted hazard ratios per 1-standard deviation increase of at least 1.25 for cardiovascular mortality and at least 1.30 for cognitive decline, respectively. The adjusted 10-year risks for cardiovascular mortality and cognitive decline were 1.67 and 8.83%, respectively, for an HSBP of 135âmmHg. These risk values were observed when the HSBP-CV was 8.44 and 8.53%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The HSBP-CV values indicating the 10-year risk of cardiovascular mortality or cognitive decline at an HSBP of 135âmmHg were consistent, at approximately 8.5%. This reference value will be useful for risk stratification in clinical practice.
ABSTRACT
AIM: This study examines whether changes in physical activity (PA) during the first year after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (2011-2012) contributed to preventing the onset of future frailty among older survivors of the disaster. METHODS: This study tracked 2561 physically active Japanese survivors aged ≥ 65 years (43.6% men; mean age 72.9 years) who had completed self-administered questionnaires in 2011 and 2012. PA levels for participants were classified into four categories based on ≥23 and <23 metabolic equivalent hours/week in 2011 and 2012: "consistently low," "decreasing," "increasing," and "consistently high." Frailty was defined as a Kihon Checklist score ≥ 5, which is used in the long-term care insurance system in Japan. Hazard ratios were calculated for the onset of frailty using a Cox proportional hazards model that fitted the proportional sub-distribution hazards regression model with weights for competing risks of death. RESULTS: From 2012 to 2018, 283 men and 490 women developed frailty. Men with consistently high or increasing PA during the first year after the disaster had a lower risk of frailty. Furthermore, even increasing PA by walking for just 30 min/day prevented future frailty in men; however, this association between a change in PA and the decreased risk of frailty was not observed in women. CONCLUSIONS: Older men who remained physically active or resumed PA at an early stage and at a low intensity, even after being physically inactive owing to the disaster, were able to prevent future frailty. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 563-570.