Predicting the risk of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: People with new-onset diabetes mellitus (diabetes) could be a possible target population for pancreatic cancer surveillance. However, distinguishing diabetes caused by pancreatic cancer from type 2 diabetes remains challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict pancreatic cancer among women with new-onset diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Australian women newly diagnosed with diabetes, using first prescription of anti-diabetic medications, sourced from administrative data, as a surrogate for the diagnosis of diabetes. The outcome was a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer within 3 years of diabetes diagnosis. We used prescription medications, severity of diabetes (i.e., change/addition of medication within 2 months after first medication), and age at diabetes diagnosis as potential predictors of pancreatic cancer. RESULTS: Among 99 687 women aged ≥ 50 years with new-onset diabetes, 602 (0.6%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years. The area under the receiver operating curve for the risk prediction model was 0.73. Age and diabetes severity were the two most influential predictors followed by beta-blockers, acid disorder drugs, and lipid-modifying agents. Using a risk threshold of 50%, sensitivity and specificity were 69% and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 1.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Our model doubled the PPV of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes from 0.6% to 1.3%. Age and rapid progression of diabetes were important risk factors, and pancreatic cancer occurred more commonly in women without typical risk factors for type 2 diabetes. This model could prove valuable as an initial screening tool, especially as new biomarkers emerge.

Association between unstable diabetes mellitus and risk of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Deterioration of glycaemic control in people with long-standing diabetes mellitus (diabetes) may be a possible indicator of pancreatic cancer. However, the magnitude of the association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer has received little attention. METHODS: We conducted a matched cohort study, nested within a population-based cohort of Australian women with diabetes. Women with unstable diabetes, defined as a change in medication after a 2-year period of stable medication use, were matched by birth year to those with stable diabetes, in a 1:4 ratio. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We included 134,954 and 539,789 women in the unstable and stable diabetes cohorts, respectively (mean age 68 years). In total, 1,315 pancreatic cancers were diagnosed. Deterioration of stable diabetes was associated with a 2.5-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer (HR 2.55; 95% CI 2.29-2.85). The risk was particularly high within the first year after diabetes deteriorated. HRs at 3 months, 6 months and 1 year were: 5.76 (95% CI 4.72-7.04); 4.56 (95% CI 3.81-5.46); and 3.33 (95% CI 2.86-3.89), respectively. The risk was no longer significantly different after 7 years. CONCLUSIONS: Deterioration in glycaemic control in people with previously stable diabetes may be an indicator of pancreatic cancer, suggesting investigations of the pancreas may be appropriate. The weaker longer-term (3-7 years) association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer may indicate that poor glycaemic control can be a risk factor for pancreatic cancer.

Association between antihypertensive medicine use and risk of ovarian cancer in women aged 50 years and older.

BACKGROUND: Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) has few modifiable risk factors. There is evidence that some antihypertensive medicines may have cancer preventive and/or therapeutic actions; therefore, we assessed the associations between use of different antihypertensive medicines and risk of specific EOC histotypes. METHODS: Our nested case-control study of linked administrative health data included 6070 Australian women aged over 50 years diagnosed with EOC from 2004 to 2013, and 30,337 matched controls. We used multivariable conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between ever use of each antihypertensive medicine group, including beta-adrenergic blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers, calcium channel blockers, diuretics, and alpha blockers, and the risk of EOC overall and separately for the serous, endometrioid, mucinous, clear cell and other histotypes. RESULTS: We found that most antihypertensive medicines were not associated with risk of EOC. However, women who used calcium channel blockers had a reduced risk of serous EOC (OR= 0.89, 95 % CI:0.81,0.98) and use of combination thiazide and potassium-sparing diuretics was associated with an increased risk of endometroid EOC (OR= 2.09, 95 % CI:1.15,3.82). CONCLUSION: Our results provide little support for a chemo-preventive role for most antihypertensives, however, the histotype-specific associations we found warrant further investigation.

Perioperative Beta-Blocker Supply and Survival in Women With Epithelial Ovarian Cancer and a History of Cardiovascular Conditions.

PURPOSE: Surgery for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) may activate stress-inflammatory responses that stimulate tumor growth and increase metastatic growth. Animal and in vitro studies have shown that inhibition of the catecholamine-induced inflammatory response via beta-adrenergic receptor blockade has antitumor potential in EOC. However, observational studies have reported mixed results. We assessed whether beta-blocker (BB) use at the time of primary ovarian cancer surgery was associated with improved survival in a large population-based study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using linked administrative data, a population-based cohort of 3,844 Australian women age 50 years or older with a history of cardiovascular conditions who underwent surgery for EOC was followed for survival outcomes. The average treatment effect of selective BB (SBB) and nonselective BB (NSBB) supply at the time of surgery on survival was estimated from a causal inference perspective using covariate-balanced inverse probability of treatment weights with flexible parametric survival models that allowed for time-varying survival effects. RESULTS: Around the time of surgery, 560 (14.5%) women were supplied a SBB and 67 (1.7%) were supplied a NSBB. At 2 years postsurgery, the survival proportion was 80% (95% CI, 68 to 88) for women dispensed NSBBs at surgery compared with 69% (95% CI, 67 to 70) for women not supplied NSBBs. The survival advantage appeared to extend to at least 8 years postsurgery. No association was observed for women dispensed a SBB around the time of surgery. CONCLUSION: Perioperative supply of NSBBs appeared to confer a survival advantage for women age over 50 years with a history of cardiovascular conditions. Long-term clinical trials are required to confirm these findings.

The association between diabetes mellitus of different durations and risk of pancreatic cancer: an Australian national data-linkage study in women.

AIMS: The bidirectional association between diabetes mellitus (DM) and pancreatic cancer (PC) is established; however, the strength of association between duration of DM and risk of PC needs further investigation. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within a population-based cohort of Australian women established using record linkage. Women diagnosed with PC from July 2007 to December 2013, were matched to five controls based on age and state of residence. DM was defined according to prescription of anti-diabetic medication from administrative prescription data. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for area-level socioeconomic status, rurality of residence, weighted comorbidity score, and predicted probability of obesity. RESULTS: The analyses included 7,267 cases and 35,978 controls. The mean age at the time of DM diagnosis was 71 years whereas the mean age at the time of diagnosis of PC was 76 years. A history of DM of any duration was associated with a 2-fold increase in risk of PC (OR=2.12; 95%CI:1.96-2.29) compared to having no history of DM. The risk decreased with increasing duration of DM. The highest risk was in those who had recent-onset DM (OR=8.08; 95%CI:6.88-9.50 for <12 months of DM), but the risk remained elevated with ≥5 years of DM (OR=1.40; 95%CI:1.27-1.55). CONCLUSION: The markedly increased risk of PC in those with recent-onset DM emphasises the need for further research to distinguish patients for whom new-onset DM is a manifestation of PC from those with type-2 DM. The elevated risk associated with long-standing DM suggests that preventing DM may contribute to a reduction in the incidence of PC.

Nitrogen-based Bisphosphonate Use and Ovarian Cancer Risk in Women Aged 50 Years and Older.

BACKGROUND: There are few readily modifiable risk factors for epithelial ovarian cancer; preclinical studies suggest bisphosphonates could have chemopreventive actions. Our study aimed to assess the association between use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonate medicine and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, overall and by histotype. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within a large, linked administrative dataset including all Australian women enrolled for Medicare, Australia's universal health insurance scheme, between July 2002 and December 2013. We included all women with epithelial ovarian cancer diagnosed at age 50 years and older between July 1, 2004, and December 31, 2013 (n = 9367) and randomly selected up to 5 controls per case, individually matched to cases by age, state of residence, area-level socioeconomic status, and remoteness of residence category (n = 46 830). We used prescription records to ascertain use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates (ever use and duration of use), raloxifene, and other osteoporosis medicines (no nitrogen-based bisphosphonates, strontium and denosumab). We calculated adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Ever use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates was associated with a reduced risk of epithelial ovarian cancer compared with no use (OR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.88). There was a reduced risk of endometrioid (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.33 to 0.79) and serous histotypes (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.93) but no association with the mucinous or clear cell histotypes. CONCLUSION: Use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates was associated with a reduced risk of endometrioid and serous ovarian cancer. This suggests the potential for use for prevention, although validation of our findings is required.

Hysterectomy and Risk of Breast, Colorectal, Thyroid, and Kidney Cancer - an Australian Data Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the associations between hysterectomy for benign indications and risk of breast, colorectal, kidney, and thyroid cancer, and to explore whether these associations are modified by removal of ovaries at the time of surgery or by age at surgery. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of the female population of Western Australia (n = 839,332) linking data from electoral, hospital, births, deaths, and cancer records. We used Cox regression to estimate HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between hysterectomy and diagnosis of breast, colorectal, kidney, and thyroid cancers. RESULTS: Compared with no surgery, hysterectomy without oophorectomy (hysterectomy) and hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (hysterectomy-BSO) were associated with higher risk of kidney cancer (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.11-1.56 and HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.96-1.73, respectively). Hysterectomy, but not hysterectomy-BSO, was related to higher risk of thyroid cancer (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.19-1.60). In contrast, hysterectomy (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.98) and hysterectomy-BSO (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-1.00) were associated with lower risk of breast cancer. We found no association between hysterectomy status and colorectal cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between hysterectomy and cancer varied by cancer type with increased risks for thyroid and kidney cancer, decreased risk for breast cancer, and no association for colorectal cancer. IMPACT: As breast, colorectal, and gynecologic cancers comprise a sizeable proportion of all cancers in women, our results suggest that hysterectomy is unlikely to increase overall cancer risk; however, further research to understand the higher risk of thyroid and kidney cancer is warranted.

Hysterectomy with and without oophorectomy and all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

BACKGROUND: Hysterectomy is one of the most commonly performed gynecologic surgeries, with an estimated 30% of women in Australia undergoing the procedure by age of 70 years. In the United States, about 45% of women undergo hysterectomy in their lifetime. Some studies have suggested that this procedure increases the risk of premature mortality. With many women making the decision to undergo hysterectomy for a benign indication each year, additional research is needed to clarify whether there are long-term health consequences of hysterectomy. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the association between hysterectomy for benign indications, with or without removal of the ovaries, and cause-specific and all-cause mortality. STUDY DESIGN: Our cohort of 666,588 women comprised the female population of Western Australia with linked hospital and health records from 1970 to 2015. Cox regression models were used to assess the association between hysterectomy and all-cause, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other mortality by oophorectomy type (categorized as none, unilateral, and bilateral), with no hysterectomy or oophorectomy as the reference group. We repeated these analyses using hysterectomy without oophorectomy as the reference group. We also investigated whether associations varied by age at the time of surgery, although small sample size precluded this analysis in women who underwent hysterectomy with unilateral salpingo-oophorectomy. In our main analysis, women who underwent hysterectomy or oophorectomy as part of cancer treatment were retained in the analysis and considered unexposed to that surgery. For a sensitivity analysis, we censored procedures performed for cancer. RESULTS: Compared with no surgery, hysterectomy without oophorectomy before 35 years was associated with an increase in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-1.40); for surgery after 35 years of age, there was an inverse association (35-44 years: hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-0.97). Similarly, hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy before 45 years of age was associated with increased all-cause mortality (35-44 years: hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.27), but decreased mortality rates after 45 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, censoring gynecologic surgeries for cancer resulted in many cancer-related deaths being excluded for women who did not have surgery for benign indications and thus increased the hazard ratios for the associations between both hysterectomy without oophorectomy and hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy and risk of all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. The sensitivity analysis therefore potentially biased the results in favor of no surgery. CONCLUSION: Among women having surgery for benign indications, hysterectomy without oophorectomy performed before 35 years of age and hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy performed before 45 years of age were associated with an increase in all-cause mortality. These procedures are not associated with poorer long-term survival when performed at older ages.

The Association Between Hysterectomy and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Population-Based Record-Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have called into question the long-held belief that hysterectomy without oophorectomy protects against ovarian cancer. This population-based longitudinal record-linkage study aimed to explore this relationship, overall and by age at hysterectomy, time period, surgery type, and indication for hysterectomy. METHODS: We followed the female adult Western Australian population (837 942 women) across a 27-year period using linked electoral, hospital, births, deaths, and cancer records. Surgery dates were determined from hospital records, and ovarian cancer diagnoses (n = 1640) were ascertained from cancer registry records. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between hysterectomy and ovarian cancer incidence. RESULTS: Hysterectomy without oophorectomy (n = 78 594) was not associated with risk of invasive ovarian cancer overall (HR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.85 to 1.11) or with the most common serous subtype (HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.89 to 1.23). Estimates did not vary statistically significantly by age at procedure, time period, or surgical approach. However, among women with endometriosis (5.8%) or with fibroids (5.7%), hysterectomy was associated with substantially decreased ovarian cancer risk overall (HR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.12 to 0.24, and HR = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.20 to 0.36, respectively) and across all subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that for most women, having a hysterectomy with ovarian conservation is not likely to substantially alter their risk of developing ovarian cancer. However, our results, if confirmed, suggest that ovarian cancer risk reduction could be considered as a possible benefit of hysterectomy when making decisions about surgical management of endometriosis or fibroids.

Colorectal, cervical and prostate cancer screening in Australians with severe mental illness: Retrospective nation-wide cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: People with severe mental illness have similar cancer incidence, but higher mortality than the general population. Participation in cancer screening may be a contributing factor but existing studies are conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency of colorectal, prostate and cervical cancer screening among people with and without severe mental illness in Australia, who have access to universal health care. METHODS: We followed three cohorts using de-identified data from a random 10% sample of people registered for Australia's universal health care system: those aged 50-69 years ( n = 760,058) for colorectal cancer screening; women aged 18-69 years ( n = 918,140) for cervical cancer screening and men aged 50-69 years ( n = 380,238) for prostate cancer screening. We used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between severe mental illness and rates of faecal occult blood testing, pap smears and prostate-specific antigen testing. RESULTS: Having severe mental illness was associated with a 17% reduction in rates of pap smear (incidence rate ratio = 0.83, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.84) and prostate-specific antigen testing (incidence rate ratio = 0.83, 95% confidence interval: 0.81-0.85), compared to the general population. By contrast, incidence rates of faecal occult blood testing were only lower in people with severe mental illness among the participants who visited their general practitioner less than an average of five times per year (incidence rate ratio = 0.83, 95% confidence interval = [0.73, 0.94]). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that differences in screening frequency may explain some of the mismatch between cancer incidence and mortality in people with severe mental illness and indicate that action is required to improve preventive screening in this very disadvantaged group.