Vaccine effectiveness against emerging COVID-19 variants using digital health data.

BACKGROUND: Participatory surveillance of self-reported symptoms and vaccination status can be used to supplement traditional public health surveillance and provide insights into vaccine effectiveness and changes in the symptoms produced by an infectious disease. The University of Maryland COVID Trends and Impact Survey provides an example of participatory surveillance that leveraged Facebook's active user base to provide self-reported symptom and vaccination data in near real-time. METHODS: Here, we develop a methodology for identifying changes in vaccine effectiveness and COVID-19 symptomatology using the University of Maryland COVID Trends and Impact Survey data from three middle-income countries (Guatemala, Mexico, and South Africa). We implement conditional logistic regression to develop estimates of vaccine effectiveness conditioned on the prevalence of various definitions of self-reported COVID-like illness in lieu of confirmed diagnostic test results. RESULTS: We highlight a reduction in vaccine effectiveness during Omicron-dominated waves of infections when compared to periods dominated by the Delta variant (median change across COVID-like illness definitions: -0.40, IQR[-0.45, -0.35]. Further, we identify a shift in COVID-19 symptomatology towards upper respiratory type symptoms (i.e., cough and sore throat) during Omicron periods of infections. Stratifying COVID-like illness by the National Institutes of Health's (NIH) description of mild and severe COVID-19 symptoms reveals a similar level of vaccine protection across different levels of COVID-19 severity during the Omicron period. CONCLUSIONS: Participatory surveillance data alongside methodologies described in this study are particularly useful for resource-constrained settings where diagnostic testing results may be delayed or limited.

Surveys that are sent out to users of social media can be used to supplement traditional methods to monitor the spread of infectious diseases. This has the potential to be particularly useful in areas where other data is unavailable, such as areas with less surveillance of infectious disease prevalence and access to infectious disease diagnostics. We used data from a survey available to users of the social media platform Facebook to collect information about any potential symptoms of COVID-19 infection and vaccines received during the COVID-19 pandemic. We found a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness and change in symptoms when the Omicron variant was known to be circulating compared to the earlier Delta variant. This method could be adapted to monitor the spread of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases in the future, which might enable the impact of infectious diseases to be recognized more quickly.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Uptake in Bangkok, Thailand: Cross-sectional Online Survey.

BACKGROUND: The third most severe COVID-19 wave in the middle of 2021 coincided with the dual challenges of limited vaccine supply and lagging acceptance in Bangkok, Thailand. Understanding of persistent vaccine hesitancy during the "608" campaign to vaccinate those aged over 60 years and 8 medical risk groups was needed. On-the-ground surveys place further demands on resources and are scale limited. We leveraged the University of Maryland COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (UMD-CTIS), a digital health survey conducted among daily Facebook user samples, to fill this need and inform regional vaccine rollout policy. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to characterize COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, frequent reasons for hesitancy, mitigating risk behaviors, and the most trusted sources of COVID-19 information through which to combat vaccine hesitancy in Bangkok, Thailand during the 608 vaccine campaign. METHODS: We analyzed 34,423 Bangkok UMD-CTIS responses between June and October 2021, coinciding with the third COVID-19 wave. Sampling consistency and representativeness of the UMD-CTIS respondents were evaluated by comparing distributions of demographics, 608 priority groups, and vaccine uptake over time with source population data. Estimates of vaccine hesitancy in Bangkok and 608 priority groups were tracked over time. Frequently cited hesitancy reasons and trusted information sources were identified according to the 608 group and degree of hesitancy. Kendall tau was used to test statistical associations between vaccine acceptance and vaccine hesitancy. RESULTS: The Bangkok UMD-CTIS respondents had similar demographics over weekly samples and compared to the Bangkok source population. Respondents self-reported fewer pre-existing health conditions compared to census data overall but had a similar prevalence of the important COVID-19 risk factor diabetes. UMD-CTIS vaccine uptake rose in parallel with national vaccination statistics, while vaccine hesitancy and degree of hesitancy declined (-7% hesitant per week). Concerns about vaccination side effects (2334/3883, 60.1%) and wanting to wait and see (2410/3883, 62.1%) were selected most frequently, while "not liking vaccines" (281/3883, 7.2%) and "religious objections" (52/3883, 1.3%) were selected least frequently. Greater vaccine acceptance was associated positively with wanting to "wait and see" and negatively with "don't believe I need (the vaccine)" (Kendall tau 0.21 and -0.22, respectively; adjusted P<.001). Scientists and health experts were most frequently cited as trusted COVID-19 information sources (13,600/14,033, 96.9%), even among vaccine hesitant respondents. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide policy and health experts with evidence that vaccine hesitancy was declining over the study timeframe. Hesitancy and trust analyses among the unvaccinated support Bangkok policy measures to address vaccine safety and efficacy concerns through health experts rather than government or religious officials. Large-scale surveys enabled by existing widespread digital networks offer an insightful minimal-infrastructure resource for informing region-specific health policy needs.

Global monitoring of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic through online surveys sampled from the Facebook user base.

Simultaneously tracking the global impact of COVID-19 is challenging because of regional variation in resources and reporting. Leveraging self-reported survey outcomes via an existing international social media network has the potential to provide standardized data streams to support monitoring and decision-making worldwide, in real time, and with limited local resources. The University of Maryland Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (UMD-CTIS), in partnership with Facebook, has invited daily cross-sectional samples from the social media platform's active users to participate in the survey since its launch on April 23, 2020. We analyzed UMD-CTIS survey data through December 20, 2020, from 31,142,582 responses representing 114 countries/territories weighted for nonresponse and adjusted to basic demographics. We show consistent respondent demographics over time for many countries/territories. Machine Learning models trained on national and pooled global data verified known symptom indicators. COVID-like illness (CLI) signals were correlated with government benchmark data. Importantly, the best benchmarked UMD-CTIS signal uses a single survey item whereby respondents report on CLI in their local community. In regions with strained health infrastructure but active social media users, we show it is possible to define COVID-19 impact trajectories using a remote platform independent of local government resources. This syndromic surveillance public health tool is the largest global health survey to date and, with brief participant engagement, can provide meaningful, timely insights into the global COVID-19 pandemic at a local scale.

Estimated Pao2: A Continuous and Noninvasive Method to Estimate Pao2 and Oxygenation Index.

Pao2 is the gold standard to assess acute hypoxic respiratory failure, but it is only routinely available by intermittent spot checks, precluding any automatic continuous analysis for bedside tools. OBJECTIVE: To validate a continuous and noninvasive method to estimate hypoxemia severity for all Spo2 values. DERIVATION COHORT: All patients who had an arterial blood gas and simultaneous continuous noninvasive monitoring from 2011 to 2019 at Boston Children's Hospital (Boston, MA) PICU. VALIDATION COHORT: External cohort at Sainte-Justine Hospital PICU (Montreal, QC, Canada) from 2017 to 2020. PREDICTION MODEL: We estimated the Pao2 using three kinds of neural networks and an empirically optimized mathematical model derived from known physiologic equations. RESULTS: We included 52,879 Pao2 (3,252 patients) in the derivation dataset and 12,047 Pao2 (926 patients) in the validation dataset. The mean function on the last minute before the arterial blood gas had the lowest bias (bias -0.1% validation cohort). A difference greater than or equal to 3% between pulse rate and electrical heart rate decreased the intraclass correlation coefficients (0.75 vs 0.44; p < 0.001) implying measurement noise. Our estimated Pao2 equation had the highest intraclass correlation coefficient (0.38; 95% CI, 0.36-0.39; validation cohort) and outperformed neural networks and existing equations. Using the estimated Pao2 to estimate the oxygenation index showed a significantly better hypoxemia classification (kappa) than oxygenation saturation index for both Spo2 less than or equal to 97% (0.79 vs 0.60; p < 0.001) and Spo2 greater than 97% (0.58 vs 0.52; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The estimated Pao2 using pulse rate and electrical heart rate Spo2 validation allows a continuous and noninvasive estimation of the oxygenation index that is valid for Spo2 less than or equal to 97% and for Spo2 greater than 97%. Display of continuous analysis of estimated Pao2 and estimated oxygenation index may provide decision support to assist with hypoxemia diagnosis and oxygen titration in critically ill patients.

Investigation of Geographic and Macrolevel Variations in LGBTQ Patient Experiences: Longitudinal Social Media Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Discrimination in the health care system contributes to worse health outcomes among lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to examine disparities in patient experience among LGBTQ persons using social media data. METHODS: We collected patient experience data from Twitter from February 2013 to February 2017 in the United States. We compared the sentiment of patient experience tweets between Twitter users who self-identified as LGBTQ and non-LGBTQ. The effect of state-level partisan identity on patient experience sentiment and differences between LGBTQ users and non-LGBTQ users were analyzed. RESULTS: We observed lower (more negative) patient experience sentiment among 13,689 LGBTQ users compared to 1,362,395 non-LGBTQ users. Increasing state-level liberal political identification was associated with higher patient experience sentiment among all users but had stronger effects for LGBTQ users. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight that social media data can yield insights about patient experience for LGBTQ persons and suggest that a state-level sociopolitical environment influences patient experience for this group. Efforts are needed to reduce disparities in patient care for LGBTQ persons while taking into context the effect of the political climate on these inequities.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Patient Experiences in the United States: 4-Year Content Analysis of Twitter.

BACKGROUND: Racial and ethnic minority groups often face worse patient experiences compared with the general population, which is directly related to poorer health outcomes within these minority populations. Evaluation of patient experience among racial and ethnic minority groups has been difficult due to lack of representation in traditional health care surveys. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the feasibility of Twitter for identifying racial and ethnic disparities in patient experience across the United States from 2013 to 2016. METHODS: In total, 851,973 patient experience tweets with geographic location information from the United States were collected from 2013 to 2016. Patient experience tweets included discussions related to care received in a hospital, urgent care, or any other health institution. Ordinary least squares multiple regression was used to model patient experience sentiment and racial and ethnic groups over the 2013 to 2016 period and in relation to the implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2014. RESULTS: Racial and ethnic distribution of users on Twitter was highly correlated with population estimates from the United States Census Bureau's 5-year survey from 2016 (r2=0.99; P<.001). From 2013 to 2016, the average patient experience sentiment was highest for White patients, followed by Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic/Latino, and American Indian/Alaska Native patients. A reduction in negative patient experience sentiment on Twitter for all racial and ethnic groups was seen from 2013 to 2016. Twitter users who identified as Hispanic/Latino showed the greatest improvement in patient experience, with a 1.5 times greater increase (P<.001) than Twitter users who identified as White. Twitter users who identified as Black had the highest increase in patient experience postimplementation of the ACA (2014-2016) compared with preimplementation of the ACA (2013), and this change was 2.2 times (P<.001) greater than Twitter users who identified as White. CONCLUSIONS: The ACA mandated the implementation of the measurement of patient experience of care delivery. Considering that quality assessment of care is required, Twitter may offer the ability to monitor patient experiences across diverse racial and ethnic groups and inform the evaluation of health policies like the ACA.

Mapping global variation in human mobility.

The geographic variation of human movement is largely unknown, mainly due to a lack of accurate and scalable data. Here we describe global human mobility patterns, aggregated from over 300 million smartphone users. The data cover nearly all countries and 65% of Earth's populated surface, including cross-border movements and international migration. This scale and coverage enable us to develop a globally comprehensive human movement typology. We quantify how human movement patterns vary across sociodemographic and environmental contexts and present international movement patterns across national borders. Fitting statistical models, we validate our data and find that human movement laws apply at 10 times shorter distances and movement declines 40% more rapidly in low-income settings. These results and data are made available to further understanding of the role of human movement in response to rapid demographic, economic and environmental changes.

Use of social media to assess the impact of equitable state policies on LGBTQ patient experiences: An exploratory study.

Limited research has evaluated these equitable policies because of the difficulty of capturing LGBTQ patient experience. Previous studies have shown that LGBTQ persons report increased rates of discrimination across a wide variety of healthcare settings which may prevent them from disclosing their LGBTQ status. The goal of this research was to use a social media big dataset to evaluate the impact of equitable policies on patient experiences for LGBTQ persons.

Using Twitter to Examine Web-Based Patient Experience Sentiments in the United States: Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: There are documented differences in access to health care across the United States. Previous research indicates that Web-based data regarding patient experiences and opinions of health care are available from Twitter. Sentiment analyses of Twitter data can be used to examine differences in patient views of health care across the United States. OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to provide a characterization of patient experience sentiments across the United States on Twitter over a 4-year period. METHODS: Using data from Twitter, we developed a set of 4 software components to automatically label and examine a database of tweets discussing patient experience. The set includes a classifier to determine patient experience tweets, a geolocation inference engine for social data, a modified sentiment classifier, and an engine to determine if the tweet is from a metropolitan or nonmetropolitan area in the United States. Using the information retrieved, we conducted spatial and temporal examinations of tweet sentiments at national and regional levels. We examined trends in the time of the day and that of the week when tweets were posted. Statistical analyses were conducted to determine if any differences existed between the discussions of patient experience in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. RESULTS: We collected 27.3 million tweets between February 1, 2013 and February 28, 2017, using a set of patient experience-related keywords; the classifier was able to identify 2,759,257 tweets labeled as patient experience. We identified the approximate location of 31.76% (876,384/2,759,257) patient experience tweets using a geolocation classifier to conduct spatial analyses. At the national level, we observed 27.83% (243,903/876,384) positive patient experience tweets, 36.22% (317,445/876,384) neutral patient experience tweets, and 35.95% (315,036/876,384) negative patient experience tweets. There were slight differences in tweet sentiments across all regions of the United States during the 4-year study period. We found the average sentiment polarity shifted toward less negative over the study period across all the regions of the United States. We observed the sentiment of tweets to have a lower negative fraction during daytime hours, whereas the sentiment of tweets posted between 8 pm and 10 am had a higher negative fraction. Nationally, sentiment scores for tweets in metropolitan areas were found to be more extremely negative and mildly positive compared with tweets in nonmetropolitan areas. This result is statistically significant (P<.001). Tweets with extremely negative sentiments had a medium effect size (d=0.34) at the national level. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents methodologies for a deeper understanding of Web-based discussion related to patient experience across space and time and demonstrates how Twitter can provide a unique and unsolicited perspective from users on the health care they receive in the United States.

Investigating inequities in hospital care among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) individuals using social media.

RATIONALE: Persons who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) face health inequities due to unwarranted discrimination against their sexual orientation or identity. An important contributor to LGBT health disparities is the inequitable or substandard care that LGBT individuals receive from hospitals. OBJECTIVE: To investigate inequities in hospital care among LGBT patients using the popular social media platform Twitter. METHOD: This study examined a dataset of Twitter communications (tweets) collected from February 2015 to May 2017. The tweets mentioned Twitter handles for hospitals (i.e., usernames for hospitals) and LGBT related terms. The topics discussed were explored to develop an LGBT position index referring to whether the hospital appears supportive or not supportive of LGBT rights. Results for each hospital were then compared to the Healthcare Equality Index (HEI), an established index to evaluate equity of hospital care towards LGBT patients. RESULTS: In total, 1856 tweets mentioned LGBT terms representing 653 unique hospitals. Of these hospitals, 189 (28.9%) were identified as HEI leaders. Hospitals in the Northeast showed significantly greater support towards LGBT issues compared to hospitals in the Midwest. Hospitals deemed as HEI leaders had higher LGBT position scores compared to non-HEI leaders (p = 0.042), when controlling for hospital size and location. CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory study describes a novel approach to monitoring LGBT hospital care. While these initial findings should be interpreted cautiously, they can potentially inform practices to improve equity of care and efforts to address health disparities among gender minority groups.

Disparities in digital reporting of illness: A demographic and socioeconomic assessment.

Although digital reports of disease are currently used by public health officials for disease surveillance and decision making, little is known about environmental factors and compositional characteristics that may influence reporting patterns. The objective of this study is to quantify the association between climate, demographic and socio-economic factors on digital reporting of disease at the US county level. We reference approximately 1.5 million foodservice business reviews between 2004 and 2014, and use census data, machine learning methods and regression models to assess whether digital reporting of disease is associated with climate, socio-economic and demographic factors. The results show that reviews of foodservice businesses and digital reports of foodborne illness follow a clear seasonal pattern with higher reporting observed in the summer, when most foodborne outbreaks are reported and to a lesser extent in the winter months. Additionally, factors typically associated with affluence (such as, higher median income and fraction of the population with a bachelor's degrees) were positively correlated with foodborne illness reports. However, restaurants per capita and education were the most significant predictors of illness reporting at the US county level. These results suggest that well-known health disparities might also be reflected in the online environment. Although this is an observational study, it is an important step in understanding disparities in the online public health environment.

Using Twitter to Identify and Respond to Food Poisoning: The Food Safety STL Project.

CONTEXT: Foodborne illness affects 1 in 4 US residents each year. Few of those sickened seek medical care or report the illness to public health authorities, complicating prevention efforts. Citizens who report illness identify food establishments with more serious and critical violations than found by regular inspections. New media sources, including online restaurant reviews and social media postings, have the potential to improve reporting. OBJECTIVE: We implemented a Web-based Dashboard (HealthMap Foodborne Dashboard) to identify and respond to tweets about food poisoning from St Louis City residents. DESIGN AND SETTING: This report examines the performance of the Dashboard in its first 7 months after implementation in the City of St Louis Department of Health. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We examined the number of relevant tweets captured and replied to, the number of foodborne illness reports received as a result of the new process, and the results of restaurant inspections following each report. RESULTS: In its first 7 months (October 2015-May 2016), the Dashboard captured 193 relevant tweets. Our replies to relevant tweets resulted in more filed reports than several previously existing foodborne illness reporting mechanisms in St Louis during the same time frame. The proportion of restaurants with food safety violations was not statistically different (P = .60) in restaurants inspected after reports from the Dashboard compared with those inspected following reports through other mechanisms. CONCLUSION: The Dashboard differs from other citizen engagement mechanisms in its use of current data, allowing direct interaction with constituents on issues when relevant to the constituent to provide time-sensitive education and mobilizing information. In doing so, the Dashboard technology has potential for improving foodborne illness reporting and can be implemented in other areas to improve response to public health issues such as suicidality, spread of Zika virus infection, and hospital quality.

Measuring patient-perceived quality of care in US hospitals using Twitter.

BACKGROUND: Patients routinely use Twitter to share feedback about their experience receiving healthcare. Identifying and analysing the content of posts sent to hospitals may provide a novel real-time measure of quality, supplementing traditional, survey-based approaches. OBJECTIVE: To assess the use of Twitter as a supplemental data stream for measuring patient-perceived quality of care in US hospitals and compare patient sentiments about hospitals with established quality measures. DESIGN: 404 065 tweets directed to 2349 US hospitals over a 1-year period were classified as having to do with patient experience using a machine learning approach. Sentiment was calculated for these tweets using natural language processing. 11 602 tweets were manually categorised into patient experience topics. Finally, hospitals with ≥50 patient experience tweets were surveyed to understand how they use Twitter to interact with patients. KEY RESULTS: Roughly half of the hospitals in the US have a presence on Twitter. Of the tweets directed toward these hospitals, 34 725 (9.4%) were related to patient experience and covered diverse topics. Analyses limited to hospitals with ≥50 patient experience tweets revealed that they were more active on Twitter, more likely to be below the national median of Medicare patients (p<0.001) and above the national median for nurse/patient ratio (p=0.006), and to be a non-profit hospital (p<0.001). After adjusting for hospital characteristics, we found that Twitter sentiment was not associated with Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) ratings (but having a Twitter account was), although there was a weak association with 30-day hospital readmission rates (p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Tweets describing patient experiences in hospitals cover a wide range of patient care aspects and can be identified using automated approaches. These tweets represent a potentially untapped indicator of quality and may be valuable to patients, researchers, policy makers and hospital administrators.

Influencing agent group behavior by adjusting cultural trait values.

Social reasoning and norms among individuals that share cultural traits are largely fashioned by those traits. We have explored predominant sociological and cultural traits. We offer a methodology for parametrically adjusting relevant traits. This exploratory study heralds a capability to deliberately tune cultural group traits in order to produce a desired group behavior. To validate our methodology, we implemented a prototypical-agent-based simulated test bed for demonstrating an exemplar from intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance scenario. A group of simulated agents traverses a hostile territory while a user adjusts their cultural group trait settings. Group and individual utilities are dynamically observed against parametric values for the selected traits. Uncertainty avoidance index and individualism are the cultural traits we examined in depth. Upon the user's training of the correspondence between cultural values and system utilities, users deliberately produce the desired system utilities by issuing changes to trait. Specific cultural traits are without meaning outside of their context. Efficacy and timely application of traits in a given context do yield desirable results. This paper heralds a path for the control of large systems via parametric cultural adjustments.