ABSTRACT
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to overwhelm intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide, and improved prediction of mortality among COVID-19 patients could assist decision making in the ICU setting. In this work, we report on the development and validation of a dynamic mortality model specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients and discuss its potential utility in the ICU. Methods: We collected electronic medical record (EMR) data from 3222 ICU admissions with a COVID-19 infection from 25 different ICUs in the Netherlands. We extracted daily observations of each patient and fitted both a linear (logistic regression) and non-linear (random forest) model to predict mortality within 24 h from the moment of prediction. Isotonic regression was used to re-calibrate the predictions of the fitted models. We evaluated the models in a leave-one-ICU-out (LOIO) cross-validation procedure. Results: The logistic regression and random forest model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 [0.85; 0.88] and 0.86 [0.84; 0.88], respectively. The recalibrated model predictions showed a calibration intercept of -0.04 [-0.12; 0.04] and slope of 0.90 [0.85; 0.95] for logistic regression model and a calibration intercept of -0.19 [-0.27; -0.10] and slope of 0.89 [0.84; 0.94] for the random forest model. Discussion: We presented a model for dynamic mortality prediction, specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients, which predicts near-term mortality rather than in-ICU mortality. The potential clinical utility of dynamic mortality models such as benchmarking, improving resource allocation and informing family members, as well as the development of models with more causal structure, should be topics for future research.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Liquorice consumption can cause pseudohyperaldosteronism and potentially lead to life-threatening complications. Besides correcting hypokalemia and hypertension, finding the triggering factor for pseudohyperaldosteronism is essential to prevent recurrence. CASE DESCRIPTION: A 68-year-old Syrian man presented in the Emergency Department with complaints of fatigue, weakness and exercise-related shortness of breath. Blood tests revealed severe hypokalemia for which suppletion and cardiac rhythm surveillance was necessary. Talking to the patient's son, it occurred that our patient drank copious amounts of Erk Sous, a thirst-quenching drink made from liquorice. The diagnosis pseudohyperaldosteronismwas confirmed by a high level of glycyrrhetinic acid in the patient's urine. After correction of the hypokalemia, our patient recovered successfully. CONCLUSION: Erk Sous is a thirst-quenching drink that can cause pseudohyperaldosteronism. The drink is popular in the Middle East during summer and Ramadan. If a patient from the Middle East presents with hypokalemia and/or hypertension, ask for consumption of Erk Sous.
