A second demographic transition in Indonesia?

As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia, Indonesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation. This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition (SDT) theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility, marriage and family change in Indonesia. Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998, we found emerging demographic features typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition. These include fertility below replacement in some regions; increasing age at first marriage, non-marriage, and divorce rates; and growing diversity in household/family forms. As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically, culturally, and demographically heterogeneous, these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner. Further, these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multiple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change pertaining to marriage and the family. We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage, fertility, and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature. Emerging ideational change embodying individualism, secularism, and post-materialism-originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe-can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions. As a demographic framework, the SDT theory is an important and useful starting point. But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition, as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.

The role of demographic change in explaining the growth of Australia's older migrant population living with dementia, 2016-2051.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the demographic drivers contributing to the future growth in the population of older migrants in Australia living with dementia. METHODS: Using birthplace-specific cohort-component projection models, we projected the number of older migrants living with dementia. ABS data on births, deaths, migration and birthplace were used, alongside Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) estimates of dementia prevalence with birthplace dementia weights calculated from administrative data. RESULTS: The number of older migrants living with dementia is projected to increase from about 134,423 in 2016 to 378,724 by 2051. Increases in populations with dementia varied considerably, from a slight decrease for those born in Southern & Eastern Europe to over 600% increases amongst the South-East Asia, Southern & Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa-born populations. CONCLUSIONS: Cohort flow is the primary driver increasing the number of older migrants living with dementia. This growth is largely inevitable because the cohorts are already living in Australia as part of the migrant population, but currently at ages below 60 years. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: High relative growth and shifting birthplace composition in the number of migrants living with dementia poses implications for culturally appropriate care, health care access and workforce needs to support migrant families, carers and their communities.

Demographic drivers of the growth of the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia, 2016-2051.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the demographic drivers that contribute to the future growth in the population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples living with dementia in Australia. METHODS: Design: Multistate, Indigenous status, cohort component, population projection model. SETTING: National-level, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. DATA: Data prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on births, deaths, migration and identification change. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare estimates of dementia prevalence alongside estimates from several studies. MAJOR OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of older people living with dementia alongside a decomposition of demographic drivers of growth. RESULTS: By 2051, the relative growth in the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples aged 50+ with dementia ranges from 4½ to 5½ times (under three prevalence scenarios) its 2016 estimate. Cohort flow (the gradual movement of younger cohorts into the 50+ age group, and the depletion of older cohorts from death, over time) is a key driver of the growth in the number of older people living with dementia. CONCLUSIONS: High growth in the number of people living with dementia poses implications for culturally appropriate care, health-care access and support for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families, carers and their communities.

English Language Proficiency Among Older Migrants in Australia, 2016-2046.

Australia's population is growing, ageing and exhibiting increasing heterogeneity with respect to birthplace and ethnic composition. Yet, little is understood about the levels of English language proficiency among the next generation of older migrants in Australia. Utilising a modified cohort-component model incorporating detailed language proficiency transition probabilities, we project birthplace populations by levels of English language proficiency to mid-century. Our results show that although Asian-born migrants tend to have lower levels of English proficiency, the majority of older migrants with poor proficiency are currently from a predominantly European background. In the future, we project a strong shift in the population of poor English speakers toward an Asian-born dominance as some European-born migrant groups dwindle in size and cohort flow increases population growth among older Asian migrants. Specifically, most of the population growth among older migrants with poor English proficiency occurs among Chinese and Mainland Southeast Asian migrants. However, we demonstrate that population growth among the total migrant population with poor proficiency is considerably lower than populations with good proficiency or from English-speaking households. Over the projection horizon, the total older migrant population with poor English proficiency increases by under 80,000 compared with an increase of 726,000 with good levels of proficiency and 518,000 in English-speaking households. However, we caution against conflating improved English language proficiency with a policy shift away from ethno-specific aged care services as culture, which is more than language, strongly influences perceptions of quality of aged care.

The Mode of Reflexive Practice among Young Indonesian Creative Workers in the Time of COVID-19.

This article examines reflexive practice among young creative workers in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, during COVID-19. Since March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed a series of relentless and overlapping crises across the Indonesian archipelago. In urban centres across Indonesia, the arts and creative sectors are among the key economic sectors severely afflicted by the pandemic. COVID-19 implies a lot more than the loss of income and livelihoods. Mobility restrictions, gig cancellations, venue closures, all entail the loss of connections, opportunities, and creative outlets. Yet despite such uncertain conditions, young creative workers remain reflexively creative in order to survive in everyday life. Building upon interviews and focus-group discussions with young creative workers in Yogyakarta, we found three modes of temporality-based reflexive practice: waiting, doing something and re-learning, which represent young creative workers' active responses manifested in the practical and contradictory relationship to the diverse possibilities within hierarchical and heterogenous cultural fields in a pandemic era characterised by regular ruptures. The analysis of the data below contributes to the literature on reflexivity and habitus among young creative workers in a time of pandemic.

Evaluating the association between urban green spaces and subjective well-being in Mexico city during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper examines the association between the frequency of use of urban green spaces (UGS) and the subjective well-being (SWB) of Mexico City's residents during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted an online survey (N = 1954) regarding individuals' perceptions and use of UGS and their SWB, evaluated through the short version of the Warwick-Edinburgh mental well-being scale. Multilevel mixed-effects regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between the frequency of UGS use and SWB, including individual and municipal level characteristics as covariates. Our results suggest that respondents who used UGS once or more per week during the pandemic reported higher SWB scores (8.7%) than those with zero visits. These findings have public policy implications that could enhance the role of UGS in urban environments during times of crisis.

Projections of Older European Migrant Populations in Australia, 2016-56.

Many of the European migrant populations which settled in Australia in the three decades after World War Two are now much older, and their aged care and health care needs are changing. While there is a considerable literature on individual aspects of ageing in many migrant groups (particularly as it pertains to culturally appropriate aged care), little research attention has been given to population aspects of ageing and its implications. The aim of this paper is to address this lacuna by presenting projections of Australia's Europe-born older migrant population from 2016 to 2056. The population projections were created by a cohort-component model modified to accommodate multiple birthplace populations. Findings show the older Europe-born population is projected to experience a slight increase over the next few years, reach a peak of just under one million in the early 2030s, and then undergo a gradual decline thereafter. The Europe-born share of Australia's 65+ population will fall, from 25.5% in 2016 to 10% by 2056. Populations born in Western and Southern Europe are likely to decline throughout the projection horizon while, the Northern Europe-born and Ireland-born older populations are projected to grow continually. The populations born in the UK and South Eastern Europe initially grow before decline sets in. To a large extent the future population size of these older migrant groups will be the result of cohort flow. We discuss the implications of the coming demographic changes for government policy and culturally appropriate service provision.

Discrimination reported by older adults living with mental health conditions: types, contexts and association with healthcare barriers.

OBJECTIVE: Australian policy-making needs better information on the prevalence, context and types of discrimination reported by people living with mental health conditions and the association of exposure to discrimination with experiencing a barrier to accessing healthcare. METHODS: Secondary data analysis using the national representative General Social Survey 2014 to examine discrimination and healthcare barriers. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between discrimination and barriers to healthcare. RESULTS: Around 10% of older adults without mental health conditions reported an instance of discrimination in the last 12 months, compared to 22-25% of those with mental health conditions. Approximately 20% with mental health conditions attributed discrimination to their health conditions, along with other characteristics including age. Discrimination was reported in settings important to human capital (e.g., healthcare, workplace), but also in general social and public contexts. Everyday discrimination (OR = 2.11 p < 0.001), discrimination in healthcare (OR = 2.92 p < 0.001), and discrimination attributed to the person's health condition (OR = 1.99 p < 0.05) increased the odds of experiencing a barrier to care two-to-three-fold. For each type of discrimination reported (e.g., racism, ageism etc.), the odds of experiencing a barrier to care increased 1.3 times (OR = 1.29 p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: This new population-level evidence shows older adults with mental health conditions are experiencing discrimination at more than twofold compared to those without mental health conditions. Discrimination was associated with preventing or delaying healthcare access. These findings indicate that future strategies to promote mental healthcare in underserved groups of older people will need to be multidimensional and consideration given to address discrimination.

Past and projected growth of Australia's older migrant populations.

In recent years, Australia's older population (aged 65 and over) has been growing rapidly, accompanied by a shift in its country of birth composition. Although a great deal of research has been undertaken on past and current aspects of Australia's migrant groups, little attention has been paid to future demographic trends in older populations. The aim of this paper is to examine recent and possible future demographic trends of Australia's migrant populations at the older ages. We present population estimates by country and broad global region of birth from 1996 to 2016, and then new birthplace-specific population projections for the 2016 to 2056 period. Our findings show that substantial growth of the 65+ population will occur in the coming decades, and that the overseas-born will shift from a Europe-born dominance to an Asia-born dominance. Cohort flow (the effect of varying sizes of cohorts moving into the 65+ age group over time) will be the main driver of growth for most older birthplace populations. The shifting demography of Australia's older population signals many policy, planning, service delivery and funding challenges for government and private sector providers. We discuss those related to aged care, health care, language services, the aged care workforce, regulatory frameworks and future research needs in demography and gerontology.

Is disability exclusion associated with experiencing an unmet need for health care?

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between disability exclusion and experiencing an unmet need for health care. METHODS: The 2015 Survey of Disability Ageing and Carers was used to measure the prevalence of unmet needs for health care stratified by measures of exclusion. Log-Poisson models were fitted to examine the association between discrimination, avoidance and unmet needs for health care. RESULTS: Approximately 10% of respondents reported an unmet need to attend a GP, specialist or hospital and 25% reported an unmet need to obtain dental treatment. For those reporting an instance of discrimination in the last 12 months, the rates of experiencing unmet needs for health care were significantly higher (GP 29%, specialist 26%, dental 46%, hospital 18%). With controls included, discrimination or avoidance significantly increased the probability of reporting an unmet need for health care regardless of the context of previous experiences of exclusion. CONCLUSION: Disability discrimination or avoidance is strongly associated with experiencing an unmet need for health care among older people with disabilities.

Discrimination and disability: Types of discrimination and association with trust, self-efficacy and life satisfaction among older Australians.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence, context and types of discrimination reported by older Australians (aged 55 years and over) and associations between outcomes (trust, self-efficacy and life satisfaction) and exposure to discrimination. METHODS: The 2014 General Social Survey was used to measure discrimination. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations between levels of trust, self-efficacy and life satisfaction and exposure to discrimination. RESULTS: A sizeable minority of older Australians with a disability reported discrimination (15%), with higher exposure for those with more severe or multiple disabilities. In addition to disability, age and nationality, race or ethnic group were cited as reasons for discrimination. Discrimination was reported across a variety of contexts, including everyday social interactions. Lower levels of trust, self-efficacy and life satisfaction were associated with exposure to disability discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Focusing on disability discrimination alone underestimates the level of exposure to discrimination. Discrimination may reinforce social exclusion by reducing trust and self-efficacy in familial and community contexts.

Components of disability exclusion: Discrimination, avoidance and accessibility in later life.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence and context of disability exclusion reported by people with disability, with and without communication and mobility problems. METHODS: The 2015 Survey of Disability Ageing and Carers was used to measure the prevalence of reported exclusion. Tests of proportions were used to examine differences in prevalence rates. Proportional Venn diagrams were used to examine the intersection of measures of exclusion. RESULTS: Approximately 53% of those with a communication or mobility difficulty reported at least one measure of exclusion. Among this group, 7% reported an instance of discrimination, 44% reported avoidance, and 29% reported an accessibility problem. The levels of discrimination and avoidance for those without communication or mobility difficulties were approximately half this level (16% avoidance and 3% discrimination). Avoidance and discrimination reduced with age, but accessibility was age-invariant. Exclusion measures intersected and occurred in a variety of contexts. CONCLUSION: Despite protections provided in Australian law, disability exclusion persists and is high among those with communication and mobility difficulties.

Social engagement and the elderly in rural Indonesia.

Rural areas in Indonesia are older relative to urban areas. This paper questions how levels of social engagement vary across among the elderly in rural Indonesia. A sample of 2750 respondents aged 60 and over was drawn from 10 purposely-selected relatively "old" villages. Our three measures of social engagement are: participation in income-generating activities, in communal activities, and in care work. While there are notable village-level differences in patterns of social engagement, the majority of our respondents are actively engaged in productive activities in their old age until they can no longer be so. A negative educational gradient in the likelihood of work participation suggests that needs for income security is a driver of the elderly's work participation. The notion of promoting active ageing, as typically understood in the Western and/or urban contexts, is of secondary importance to health care provision and managing old-age disability in these ageing rural communities.