Tillage and manure effects on runoff nitrogen and phosphorus losses from frozen soils.

In cold regions, nutrient losses from dairy agroecosystems are a longstanding and recurring problem, especially when manure is applied during winter over snow-covered frozen soils. This study evaluated two tillage (fall chisel tillage [CT] and no-tillage [NT]) and three manure-type management treatments (unmanured control, liquid manure [<5% solids], and solid manure [>20% solids]). The liquid and solid manure used in this study were from the same animal species (Bos taurus) and facility. The six management treatments were field tested in south-central Wisconsin during the winters (November-April) of 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 with a complete factorial design. Seasonal runoff losses were significantly lower from fall CT compared with NT during both seasons. Manure applications (both liquid and solid) on top of snow significantly increased most of the nutrients (NH4 + , dissolved reactive phosphorus, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus) in runoff compared with unmanured control. Irrespective of tillage and multiple runoff events, solid manure was present on the surface for longer periods, potentially releasing nutrients each time it interacted with runoff. In contrast, liquid manure infiltrated the snowpack and was partly lost with snowmelt and infiltrated soil depending upon soil frost and surface conditions. Overall, results indicate that wintertime manure applications over snow-covered frozen soils pose a risk of nutrient loss irrespective of tillage and manure type, but in unavoidable situations, prioritizing tillage × manure type combination can help reduce losses.

Updates to the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model.

The Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) is a spreadsheet-based model developed for predicting annual field-scale P loss in surface runoff and changes in soil test P. This empirically based model was designed for use by those without significant modeling experience. However, a significant limitation with the model is that it does not calculate runoff. Moreover, APLE is deterministic and thus predicts a single value for a given set of inputs, thereby ignoring any uncertainties associated with model inputs. Here, we describe modifications to APLE that allow users to estimate runoff using the Curve Number method. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the updated version of APLE also provides users the ability to account for model input uncertainties in estimating model prediction errors. We provide examples of using the revised version of APLE (ver. 3.0) for calculating P loss from two fields in Mississippi over a 4-yr period and calculating the change in Mehlich-3 P concentrations over a 9-yr period at three locations in Maryland following cessation of P application. Both examples demonstrate that incorporating estimates of uncertainties in both measured data and model predictions provides modelers with a more realistic understanding of the model's performance.

Envisioning the manureshed: Toward comprehensive integration of modern crop and animal production.

The specialization and intensification of agriculture have produced incredible gains in productivity, quality, and availability of agricultural commodities but have resulted in the separation of crop and animal production. A by-product of this separation has been the accumulation of manure regions where animal production is concentrated. Enter the "manureshed," an organizing framework for integrating animal and crop production where budgeting of manure nutrients is used to strategically guide their recycling and reuse in agricultural production systems where manure resources are of highest value. To move beyond regional nutrient balance analyses into the transformational realm required to mitigate "wicked" manure problems, manureshed management requires recognition of the challenges to systematically reorganizing resource flows. In better integrating crop and livestock systems, manureshed management must account for the unique nature of managing manure nutrients within individual livestock industries, anticipate trade-offs in substituting manure for commercial fertilizer, promote technologies to refine manure, and engage extensive social networks across scales that range from the farmgate to nation and beyond.

Manuresheds offer a system-level strategy for recovering manure's fertilizer value. Manuresheds address nutrient imbalances and environmental and socioeconomic outcomes. Manuresheds scale from single operations to a "mega-manureshed" transecting the southeastern United States. Manureshed management supports the strategic alignment of technologies, markets, and networks.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for predicted soil test phosphorus using the Annual Phosphorus Loss Estimator model.

In this study we conducted a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model focusing on model predictions of soil test phosphorus (STP). We calculated and evaluated the sensitivity coefficients of predicted STP and changes in STP using 1- and 10-yr simulations with and without P application. We also compared two methods for estimating prediction uncertainties: first-order variance approximation (FOVA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Finally, we compared uncertainties in APLE-predicted STP with uncertainties in measured STP collected from multiple sites in Maryland under different manuring and cropping treatments. Results from our sensitivity analysis showed that predicted STP and changes in STP for 1-yr simulations without P inputs were most sensitive to initial STP, whereas model STP predictions were most sensitive to manure and fertilizer application rates when sensitivity analyses included P inputs. For the 10-yr simulations without P application inputs, the range in sensitivity coefficients for crop uptake and precipitation were much greater than for the 1-yr simulations. Prediction uncertainties from FOVA were comparable to those from MCS for model input uncertainties up to 50%. Using FOVA to calculate APLE STP prediction uncertainties using the Maryland data set, the mean measured STP for nearly all site years fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the STP prediction uncertainties. Our results provide users of APLE insight into what model inputs require the most careful measurement when using the model to predict changes in STP under conditions of P drawdown (i.e., no P application) or P buildup.

Fall Tillage Reduced Nutrient Loads from Liquid Manure Application during the Freezing Season.

Reducing agricultural runoff is important year round, particularly on landscapes that receive wintertime applications of manure. No-tillage systems are typically associated with reduced runoff loads during the growing season, but surface roughness from fall tillage may aid infiltration on frozen soils by providing surface depressional storage. The timing of winter manure applications may also affect runoff, depending on snow and soil frost conditions. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate runoff and nutrient loads during the freezing season from combinations of tillage and manure application timings. Six management treatments were tested in south-central Wisconsin during the winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 with a complete factorial design: two tillage treatments (fall chisel plow vs. no-tillage) and three manure application timings (early December, late January, and unmanured). Nutrient loads from winter manure application were lower on chisel-plowed versus untilled soils during both monitoring years. Loads were also lower from manure applied to soils with less frost development. Wintertime manure applications pose a risk of surface nutrient losses, but fall tillage and timing applications to thawed soils can help reduce loads.

Dynamics of Measured and Simulated Dissolved Phosphorus in Runoff from Winter-Applied Dairy Manure.

Agricultural P loss from fields is an issue due to water quality degradation. Better information is needed on the P loss in runoff from dairy manure applied in winter and the ability to reliably simulate P loss by computer models. We monitored P in runoff during two winters from chisel-tilled and no-till field plots that had liquid dairy manure applied in December or January. Runoff total P was dominated by nondissolved forms when soils were bare and unfrozen. Runoff from snow-covered, frozen soils had much less sediment and sediment-related P, and much more dissolved P. Transport of manure solids was greatest when manure was applied on top of snow and runoff shortly after application was caused by snowmelt. Dissolved P concentrations in runoff were greater when manure was applied on top of snow because manure liquid remained in the snowpack and allowed more P to be available for loss. Dissolved runoff P also increased as the amount of rain or snowmelt that became runoff (runoff ratio) increased. The SurPhos manure P runoff model reliably simulated these processes to provide realistic predictions of dissolved P in runoff from surface manure. Overall, for liquid dairy manure applied in winter, dissolved P concentrations in runoff can be decreased if manure is applied onto bare, unfrozen soil, or if runoff ratio can be reduced, perhaps through greater soil surface roughness from fall tillage. Both management approaches will allow more manure P to infiltrate into soil and less move in runoff. SurPhos is a tool that can reliably evaluate P loss for different management and policy scenarios for winter manure application.

Agricultural Water Quality in Cold Climates: Processes, Drivers, Management Options, and Research Needs.

Cold agricultural regions are important sites of global food production. This has contributed to widespread water quality degradation influenced by processes and hydrologic pathways that differ from warm region analogues. In cold regions, snowmelt is often a dominant period of nutrient loss. Freeze-thaw processes contribute to nutrient mobilization. Frozen ground can limit infiltration and interaction with soils, and minimal nutrient uptake during the nongrowing season may govern nutrient export from agricultural catchments. This paper reviews agronomic, biogeochemical, and hydrological characteristics of cold agricultural regions and synthesizes findings of 23 studies that are published in this special section, which provide new insights into nutrient cycling and hydrochemical processes, model developments, and the efficacy of different potentially beneficial management practices (BMPs) across varied cold regions. Growing evidence suggests the need to redefine optimum soil phosphorus levels and input regimes in cold regions to allow achievement of water quality targets while still supporting strong agricultural productivity. Practices should be considered through a regional and site-specific lens, due to potential interactions between climate, hydrology, vegetation, and soils, which influence the efficacy of nutrient, crop, water, and riparian buffer management. This leads to differing suitability of BMPs across varied cold agricultural regions. We propose a systematic approach (""), to achieve water quality objectives in variable and changing climates, which combines nutrient transport process onceptualization, nderstanding BMP functions, redicting effects of variability and change, onsideration of producer input and agronomic and environmental tradeoffs, practice daptation, nowledge mobilization, and valuation of water quality improvement.

A Global Perspective on Integrated Strategies to Manage Soil Phosphorus Status for Eutrophication Control without Limiting Land Productivity.

Unnecessary accumulation of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils continues to degrade water quality and linked ecosystem services. Managing both soil loss and soil P fertility status is therefore crucial for eutrophication control, but the relative environmental benefits of these two mitigation measures, and the timescales over which they occur, remain unclear. To support policies toward reduced P loadings from agricultural soils, we examined the impact of soil conservation and lowering of soil test P (STP) in different regions with intensive farming (Europe, the United States, and Australia). Relationships between STP and soluble reactive P concentrations in land runoff suggested that eutrophication control targets would be more achievable if STP concentrations were kept at or below the current recommended threshold values for fertilizer response. Simulations using the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model in three contrasting catchments predicted total P losses ranging from 0.52 to 0.88 kg ha depending on soil P buffering and erosion vulnerability. Drawing down STP in all catchment soils to the threshold optimum for productivity reduced catchment P loss by between 18 and 40%, but this would take between 30 and 40+ years. In one catchment, STP drawdown was more effective in reducing P loss than erosion control, but combining both strategies was always the most effective and more rapid than erosion control alone. By accounting for both soil P buffering interactions and erosion vulnerability, the APLE model quickly provided reliable information on the magnitude and time frame of P loss reduction that can be realistically expected from soil and STP management. Greater precision in the sampling, analysis, and interpretation of STP, and more technical innovation to lower agronomic optimum STP concentrations on farms, is needed to foster long-term sustainable management of soil P fertility in the future.

Temperature and Manure Placement in a Snowpack Affect Nutrient Release from Dairy Manure during Snowmelt.

Agricultural nutrient management is an issue due to N and P losses from fields and water quality degradation. Better information is needed on the risk of nutrient loss in runoff from dairy manure applied in winter. We investigated the effect of temperature on nutrient release from liquid and semisolid manure to water, and of manure quantity and placement within a snowpack on nutrient release to melting snow. Temperature did not affect manure P and NH-N release during water extraction. Manure P release, but not NH-N release, was significantly influenced by the water/manure solids extraction ratio. During snowmelt, manure P release was not significantly affected by manure placement in the snowpack, and the rate of P release decreased as application rate increased. Water extraction data can reliably estimate P release from manure during snowmelt; however, snowmelt water interaction with manure of greater solids content and subsequent P release appears incomplete compared with liquid manures. Manure NH-N released during snowmelt was statistically the same regardless of application rate. For the semisolid manure, NH-N released during snowmelt increased with the depth of snow covering it, most likely due to reduced NH volatilization. For the liquid manure, there was no effect of manure placement within the snowpack on NH-N released during snowmelt. Water extraction data can also reliably estimate manure NH-N release during snowmelt as long as NH volatilization is accounted for with liquid manures for all placements in a snowpack and semisolid manures applied on top of snow.

Estimating Legacy Soil Phosphorus Impacts on Phosphorus Loss in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Agricultural nutrient management is an issue due to P loss from fields and water quality degradation. This is especially true in watersheds where a history of P application in excess of crop needs has resulted in elevated soil P (legacy P). As practices and policy are implemented in such watersheds to reduce P loss, information is needed on time required to draw down soil P and how much P loss can be reduced by drawdown. We used the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model to simulate soil P drawdown in Maryland, and to estimate P loss at a statewide scale associated with different combinations of soil P and P transport. Simulated APLE soil P drawdown compared well with measured rates from three field sites, showing that APLE can reliably simulate P dynamics for Maryland soils. Statewide APLE simulations of average annual P loss from cropland (0.84 kg ha) also compared well with estimates from the Chesapeake Bay Model (0.87 kg ha). The APLE results suggest that it is realistic to expect that a concerted effort to reduce high P soils throughout the state can reduce P loss to the Chesapeake Bay by 40%. However, P loss reduction would be achieved gradually over several decades, since soil P drawdown is very slow. Combining soil P drawdown with aggressive conservation efforts to reduce P transport in erosion could achieve a 62% reduction in state-level P loss. This 62% reduction could be considered a maximum amount possible that is still compatible with modern agriculture.

Quantifying the Impact of Seasonal and Short-term Manure Application Decisions on Phosphorus Loss in Surface Runoff.

Agricultural phosphorus (P) management is a research and policy issue due to P loss from fields and water quality degradation. Better information is needed on the risk of P loss from dairy manure applied in winter or when runoff is imminent. We used the SurPhos computer model and 108 site-years of weather and runoff data to assess the impact of these two practices on dissolved P loss. Model results showed that winter manure application can increase P loss by 2.5 to 3.6 times compared with non-winter applications, with the amount increasing as the average runoff from a field increases. Increased P loss is true for manure applied any time from late November through early March, with a maximum P loss from application in late January and early February. Shifting manure application to fields with less runoff can reduce P loss by 3.4 to 7.5 times. Delaying manure application when runoff is imminent can reduce P loss any time of the year, and sometimes quite significantly, but the number of times that application delays will reduce P loss is limited to only 3 to 9% of possible spreading days, and average P loss may be reduced by only 15% for winter-applied manure and 6% for non-winter-applied manure. Overall, long-term strategies of shifting manure applications to low runoff seasons and fields can potentially reduce dissolved P loss in runoff much more compared with near-term, tactical application decisions of avoiding manure application when runoff is imminent.

Use of Annual Phosphorus Loss Estimator (APLE) Model to Evaluate a Phosphorus Index.

The Phosphorus (P) Index was developed to provide a relative ranking of agricultural fields according to their potential for P loss to surface water. Recent efforts have focused on updating and evaluating P Indices against measured or modeled P loss data to ensure agreement in magnitude and direction. Following a recently published method, we modified the Maryland P Site Index (MD-PSI) from a multiplicative to a component index structure and evaluated the MD-PSI outputs against P loss data estimated by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model, a validated, field-scale, annual P loss model. We created a theoretical dataset of fields to represent Maryland conditions and scenarios and created an empirical dataset of soil samples and management characteristics from across the state. Through the evaluation process, we modified a number of variables within the MD-PSI and calculated weighting coefficients for each P loss component. We have demonstrated that our methods can be used to modify a P Index and increase correlation between P Index output and modeled P loss data. The methods presented here can be easily applied in other states where there is motivation to update an existing P Index.

Revised Method and Outcomes for Estimating Soil Phosphorus Losses from Agricultural Land in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model.

Current restoration efforts for the Chesapeake Bay watershed mandate a timeline for reducing the load of nutrients and sediment into receiving waters. The Chesapeake Bay watershed model (WSM) has been used for two decades to simulate hydrology and nutrient and sediment transport; however, spatial limitations of the WSM preclude edge-of-field scale representation of phosphorus (P) losses. Rather, the WSM relies on literature-derived, county-scale rates of P loss (targets) for simulated land uses. An independent field-scale modeling tool, Annual Phosphorus Loss Estimator (APLE), was used as an alternative to the current WSM approach. Identical assumptions of county-level acreage, soil properties, nutrient management practices, and transport factors from the WSM were used as inputs to APLE. Incorporation of APLE P-loss estimates resulted in greater estimated total P loss and a revised spatial pattern of P loss compared with the WSM's original targets. Subsequently, APLE's revised estimates for P loss were substituted into the WSM and resulted in improved WSM calibration performance at up to 79% of tributary monitoring stations. The incorporation of APLE into the WSM will improve its ability to assess P loss and the impact of field management on Chesapeake Bay water quality.

Improved Simulation of Edaphic and Manure Phosphorus Loss in SWAT.

Watershed models such as the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Agricultural Policy Environmental EXtender (APEX) are widely used to assess the fate and transport of agricultural nutrient management practices on soluble and particulate phosphorus (P) loss in runoff. Soil P-cycling routines used in SWAT2012 revision 586, however, do not simulate the short-term effects of applying a concentrated source of soluble P, such as manure, to the soil surface where it is most vulnerable to runoff. We added a new set of soil P routines to SWAT2012 revision 586 to simulate surface-applied manure at field and subwatershed scales within Mahantango Creek watershed in south-central Pennsylvania. We corroborated the new P routines and standard P routines in two versions of SWAT (conventional SWAT, and a topographically driven variation called TopoSWAT) for a total of four modeling "treatments". All modeling treatments included 5 yr of measured data under field-specific, historical management information. Short-term "wash off" processes resulting from precipitation immediately following surface application of manures were captured with the new P routine whereas the standard routines resulted in losses regardless of manure application. The new routines improved sensitivity to key factors in nutrient management (i.e., timing, rate, method, and form of P application). Only the new P routines indicated decreases in soluble P losses for dairy manure applications at 1, 5, and 10 d before a storm event. The new P routines also resulted in more variable P losses when applying manure versus commercial fertilizer and represented increases in total P losses, as compared with standard P routines, with rate increases in dairy manure application (56,000 to 84,000 L ha). The new P routines exhibited greater than 50% variation among proportions of organic, particulate, and soluble P corresponding to spreading method. In contrast, proportions of P forms under the standard P routines varied less than 20%. Results suggest similar revisions to other agroecosystem watershed models would be appropriate.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator model.

Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. Although it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study we assessed the effect of model input error on predictions of annual P loss by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our objectives were (i) to conduct a sensitivity analyses for all APLE input variables to determine which variables the model is most sensitive to, (ii) to determine whether the relatively easy-to-implement first-order approximation (FOA) method provides accurate estimates of model prediction uncertainties by comparing results with the more accurate Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the APLE model against measured P loss data when uncertainties in model predictions and measured data are included. Our results showed that for low to moderate uncertainties in APLE input variables, the FOA method yields reasonable estimates of model prediction uncertainties, although for cases where manure solid content is between 14 and 17%, the FOA method may not be as accurate as the MCS method due to a discontinuity in the manure P loss component of APLE at a manure solid content of 15%. The estimated uncertainties in APLE predictions based on assumed errors in the input variables ranged from ±2 to 64% of the predicted value. Results from this study highlight the importance of including reasonable estimates of model uncertainty when using models to predict P loss.

Simulating soil phosphorus dynamics for a phosphorus loss quantification tool.

Pollution of fresh waters by agricultural phosphorus (P) is a water quality concern. Because soils can contribute significantly to P loss in runoff, it is important to assess how management affects soil P status over time, which is often done with models. Our objective was to describe and validate soil P dynamics in the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. APLE is a user-friendly spreadsheet model that simulates P loss in runoff and soil P dynamics over 10 yr for a given set of runoff, erosion, and management conditions. For soil P dynamics, APLE simulates two layers in the topsoil, each with three inorganic P pools and one organic P pool. It simulates P additions to soil from manure and fertilizer, distribution among pools, mixing between layers due to tillage and bioturbation, leaching between and out of layers, crop P removal, and loss by surface runoff and erosion. We used soil P data from 25 published studies to validate APLE's soil P processes. Our results show that APLE reliably simulated soil P dynamics for a wide range of soil properties, soil depths, P application sources and rates, durations, soil P contents, and management practices. We validated APLE specifically for situations where soil P was increasing from excessive P inputs, where soil P was decreasing due to greater outputs than inputs, and where soil P stratification occurred in no-till and pasture soils. Successful simulations demonstrate APLE's potential to be applied to major management scenarios related to soil P loss in runoff and erosion.

Using a phosphorus loss model to evaluate and improve phosphorus indices.

In most states, the phosphorus (P) index (PI) is the adopted strategy for assessing a field's vulnerability to P loss; however, many state PIs have not been rigorously evaluated against measured P loss data to determine how well the PI assigns P loss risk-a major reason being the lack of field data available for such an analysis. Given the lack of P loss data available for PI evaluation, our goal was to demonstrate how a P loss model can be used to evaluate and revise a PI using the Pennsylvania (PA) PI as an example. Our first objective was to compare two different formulations-multiplicative and component-for calculating a PI. Our second objective was to evaluate whether output from a P loss model can be used to improve PI weighting by calculating weights for modified versions of the PA PI from model-generated P loss data. Our results indicate that several potential limitations exist with the original multiplicative index formulation and that a component formulation is more consistent with how P loss is calculated with P loss models and generally provides more accurate estimates of P loss. Moreover, using the PI weights calculated from the model-generated data noticeably improved the correlation between PI values and a large and diverse measured P loss data set. The approach we use here can be used with any P loss model and PI and thus can serve as a guide to assist states in evaluating and modifying their PI.

Watershed-level comparison of predictability and sensitivity of two phosphorus models.

Buildup of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils and transport of P to nearby surface waters due to excessive, long-term application of poultry litter is an environmental concern in many poultry-producing states. Watershed models are often used to quantify soil and water quality impacts of poultry litter applications. However, depending on how P transport is simulated in watershed models, the anticipated impact could be quite different. The objective of this study was to determine the predictability and sensitivity of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) P model and a newly developed, state-of-the-art manure P model called SurPhos in a poultry litter-applied pasture watershed. A small, predominantly agricultural watershed in Randolph County, Alabama was used for this study. The SWAT model, calibrated for surface runoff and total stream flows (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.70 for both), was used to provide runoff inputs to the SurPhos model. Total dissolved P (TDP) exports simulated by the SWAT P and SurPhos models from the hay hydrological response units of the watershed were compared for different poultry litter application rates and different initial soil Solution P levels. Both models showed sensitivity to poultry litter application rates, with SWAT simulating linear and SurPhos simulating nonlinear increases in TDP exports with increase in poultry litter application rates. SWAT showed greater sensitivity to initial soil Solution P levels, which can lead to overestimation of TDP exports, especially at low poultry litter application rates. As opposed to the SurPhos model simulations and contrary to recent studies, SWAT simulated excessive accumulation of Solution P in the top 10 mm of soil. Because SurPhos appears to simulate P transport and build-up processes from manure-applied areas more accurately, this study suggests that SWAT be replaced by SurPhos to more accurately determine watershed-level effectiveness of P management measures.

Distribution of phosphorus in manure slurry and its infiltration after application to soils.

Computer models help identify agricultural areas where P transport potential is high, but commonly used models do not simulate surface application of manures and P transport from manures to runoff. As part of an effort to model such P transport, we conducted manure slurry separation and soil infiltration experiments to determine how much slurry P infiltrates into soil after application but before rain, thus becoming less available to runoff. We applied dairy and swine slurry to soil columns and after both 24 and 96 h analyzed solids remaining on the soil surface for dry matter, total phosphorus (TP), and water-extractable inorganic (WEIP) and organic (WEOP) phosphorus. We analyzed underlying soils for Mehlich-3 and water-extractable P. We also conducted slurry separation experiments by sieving, centrifuging, and suction-filtering to determine which method could easily estimate slurry P infiltration into soils. About 20% of slurry solids and 40 to 65% of slurry TP and WEIP infiltrated into soil after application, rendering this P less available to transport in runoff. Slurry separation by suction-filtering through a screen with 0.75-mm-diameter openings was the best method to estimate this slurry P infiltration. Measured quantities of manure WEOP changed too much during experiments to estimate WEOP infiltration into soil or what separation method can approximate infiltration. Applying slurries to soils always increased soil P in the top 0 to 1 cm of soil, frequently in the 1- to 2-cm depth of soil, but rarely below 2 cm. Future research should use soils with coarser texture or large macropores, and slurry with low dry matter content (1-2%).