Survival fluctuation is linked to precipitation variation during staging in a migratory shorebird.

Understanding how weather conditions affect animal populations is essential to foresee population changes in times of global climate shifts. However, assessing year-round weather impacts on demographic parameters is hampered in migratory animals due to often unknown occurrence in space and time. We addressed this by coupling tracking and weather data to explain extensive variation in apparent survival across 19 years in a northern European population of little ringed plovers (Charadrius dubius). Over 90% (n = 21) of tracked individuals followed migration routes along the Indo-European flyway to south India. Building on capture-recapture histories of nearly 1400 individuals, we found that between-year variation in precipitation during post-breeding staging in northern South Asia explained 47% of variation in apparent adult survival. Overall, the intensity of the monsoon in South Asia explained 31-33% of variability in apparent survival. In contrast, weather conditions in breeding, final non-breeding and pre-breeding quarters appeared less important in this species. The integration of multi-source data seems essential for identifying key regions and periods limiting population growth, for forecasting future changes and targeting conservation efforts.

Developing fine-grained nationwide predictions of valuable forests using biodiversity indicator bird species.

The use of indicator species in forest conservation and management planning can facilitate enhanced preservation of biodiversity from the negative effects of forestry and other uses of land. However, this requires detailed and spatially comprehensive knowledge of the habitat preferences and distributions of selected focal indicator species. Unfortunately, due to limited resources for field surveys, only a small proportion of the occurrences of focal species is usually known. This shortcoming can be circumvented by using modeling techniques to predict the spatial distribution of suitable sites for the target species. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) and other remote sensing (RS) techniques have the potential to provide useful environmental data covering systematically large areas for these purposes. Here, we focused on six bird of prey and woodpecker species known to be good indicators of boreal forest biodiversity values. We used known nest sites of the six indicator species based on nestling ringing records. Thus, the most suitable nesting sites of these species provide important information for biodiversity-friendly forest management and conservation planning. We developed fine-grained, that is, 96 × 96 m grid cell resolution, predictive maps across the whole of Finland of the suitable nesting habitats based on ALS and other RS data and spatial information on the distribution of important forest stands for the six studied biodiversity indicator bird species based on nesting-habitat suitability modeling, that is, the MaxEnt model. Habitat preferences of the study species, as determined by MaxEnt, were in line with the previous knowledge of species-habitat relations. The proportion of suitable habitats of these species in protected areas (PAs) was considerable, but our analysis also revealed many potentially high-quality forest stands outside PAs. However, many of these sites are increasingly threatened by logging because of increased pressures for using forests for bioeconomy and forest industry based on National Forest Strategy. Predicting habitat suitability based on information on the nest sites of indicator species provides a new tool for systematic conservation planning over large areas in boreal forests in Europe, and a corresponding approach would also be feasible and recommendable elsewhere where similar data are available.

A review of constraints and solutions for collecting raptor samples and contextual data for a European Raptor Biomonitoring Facility.

The COST Action 'European Raptor Biomonitoring Facility' (ERBFacility) aims to develop pan-European raptor biomonitoring in support of better chemicals management in Europe, using raptors as sentinel species. This presents a significant challenge involving a range of constraints that must be identified and addressed. The aims of this study were to: (1) carry out a comprehensive review of the constraints that may limit the gathering in the field of raptor samples and contextual data, and assess their relative importance across Europe; and (2) identify and discuss possible solutions to the key constraints that were identified. We applied a participatory approach to identify constraints and to discuss feasible solutions. Thirty-one constraints were identified, which were divided into four categories: legal, methodological, spatial coverage, and skills constraints. To assess the importance of the constraints and their possible solutions, we collected information through scientific workshops and by distributing a questionnaire to stakeholders in all the countries involved in ERBFacility. We obtained 74 answers to the questionnaire, from 24 of the 39 COST participating countries. The most important constraints identified were related to the collection of complex contextual data about sources of contamination, and the low number of existing raptor population national/regional monitoring schemes and ecological studies that could provide raptor samples. Legal constraints, such as permits to allow the collection of invasive samples, and skills constraints, such as the lack of expertise to practice necropsies, were also highlighted. Here, we present solutions for all the constraints identified, thus suggesting the feasibility of establishing a long-term European Raptor Sampling Programme as a key element of the planned European Raptor Biomonitoring Facility.

Promiscuous specialists: Host specificity patterns among generalist louse flies.

Ectoparasites such as louse flies (Diptera: Hippoboscidae) have tendency for host specialization, which is driven by adaptation to host biology as well as competition avoidance between parasites of the same host. However, some louse fly species, especially in genera attacking birds, show wide range of suitable hosts. In the presented study, we have surveyed the current status of bird specific louse flies in Finland to provide comprehensive host association data to analyse the ecological requirements of the generalist species. A thorough sampling of 9342 birds, representing 134 species, recovered 576 specimens of louse flies, belonging to six species: Crataerina hirundinis, C. pallida, Ornithomya avicularia, O. chloropus, O. fringillina and Ornithophila metallica. Despite some overlapping hosts, the three Ornithomya species showed a notable pattern in their host preference, which was influenced not only by the host size but also by the habitat and host breeding strategy. We also provide DNA barcodes for ten Finnish species of Hippoboscidae, which can be used as a resource for species identification as well as metabarcoding studies in the future.

Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel populations driven by a bottom-up effect.

Spatial synchrony between populations emerges from endogenous and exogenous processes, such as intra- and interspecific interactions and abiotic factors. Understanding factors contributing to synchronous population dynamics help to better understand what determines abundance of a species. This study focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics in the Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) using snow-track data from Finland from 29 years. We disentangled the effects of bottom-up and top-down forces as well as environmental factors on population dynamics with a spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical approach. We found red squirrel abundance to be positively associated with both the abundance of Norway spruce (Picea abies) cones and the predators, the pine marten (Martes martes) and the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), probably due to shared habitat preferences. The results suggest that red squirrel populations are synchronized over remarkably large distances, on a scale of hundreds of kilometres, and that this synchrony is mainly driven by similarly spatially autocorrelated spruce cone crop. Our research demonstrates how a bottom-up effect can drive spatial synchrony in consumer populations on a very large scale of hundreds of kilometres, and also how an explicit spatiotemporal approach can improve model performance for fluctuating populations.

Intraguild predation and competition impacts on a subordinate predator.

Intraguild (IG) predation and interspecific competition may affect the settlement and success of species in their habitats. Using data on forest-dwelling hawks from Finland, we addressed the impact of an IG predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis (goshawk), on the breeding of an IG prey, the common buzzard Buteo buteo. We hypothesized that the subordinate common buzzard avoids breeding in the proximity of goshawks and that interspecific competitors, mainly Strix owls, may also disturb common buzzards by competing for nests and food. Our results show that common buzzards more frequently occupied territories with a low IG predation threat and with no interspecific competitors. We also observed that common buzzards avoided territories with high levels of grouse, the main food of goshawks, possibly due to a risk of IG predation since abundant grouse can attract goshawks. High levels of small rodents attracted interspecific competitors to common buzzard territories and created a situation where there was not only an abundance of food but also an abundance of competitors for the food. These results suggest interplay between top-down and bottom-up processes which influence the interactions between avian predator species. We conclude that the common buzzard needs to balance the risks of IG predation and interference competition with the availability of its own resources. The presence of other predators associated with high food levels may impede a subordinate predator taking full advantage of the available food. Based on our results, it appears that interspecific interactions with dominant predators have the potential to influence the distribution pattern of subordinate predators.

Habitat Effects on the Breeding Performance of Three Forest-Dwelling Hawks.

Habitat loss causes population declines, but the mechanisms are rarely known. In the European Boreal Zone, loss of old forest due to intensive forestry is suspected to cause declines in forest-dwelling raptors by reducing their breeding performance. We studied the boreal breeding habitat and habitat-associated breeding performance of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), common buzzard (Buteo buteo) and European honey buzzard (Pernis apivorus). We combined long-term Finnish bird-of-prey data with multi-source national forest inventory data at various distances (100-4000 m) around the hawk nests. We found that breeding success of the goshawk was best explained by the habitat within a 2000-m radius around the nests; breeding was more successful with increasing proportions of old spruce forest and water, and decreasing proportions of young thinning forest. None of the habitat variables affected significantly the breeding success of the common buzzard or the honey buzzard, or the brood size of any of the species. The amount of old spruce forest decreased both around goshawk and common buzzard nests and throughout southern Finland in 1992-2010. In contrast, the area of young forest increased in southern Finland but not around hawk nests. We emphasize the importance of studying habitats at several spatial and temporal scales to determine the relevant species-specific scale and to detect environmental changes. Further effort is needed to reconcile the socioeconomic and ecological functions of forests and habitat requirements of old forest specialists.

Predator-vole interactions in Northern Europe: the role of small mustelids revised.

The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986-2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator-prey interactions during winter. Our results support the importance of the small mustelids for the vole cycle. However, weakening specialist predation during winters, or an increase in generalist predation, was not associated with the loss of cyclicity. Strengthening of delayed density dependence coincided with strengthening small mustelid influence on the summer population growth rates of voles. In conclusion, a strong impact of small mustelids during summers appears highly influential to vole population dynamics, and deteriorating winter conditions are not a viable explanation for collapsing small mammal population cycles.

Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern.

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, posing increasing pressures on species to adapt in situ or shift their ranges. A protected area network is one of the main instruments to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change. Importantly, protected area networks might be expected to enhance the resilience of regional populations of species of conservation concern, resulting in slower species loss in landscapes with a significant amount of protected habitat compared to unprotected landscapes. Based on national bird atlases compiled in 1974-1989 and 2006-2010, this study examines the recent range shifts in 90 forest, mire, marshland, and Arctic mountain heath bird species of conservation concern in Finland, as well as the changes in their species richness in protected versus unprotected areas. The trends emerging from the atlas data comparisons were also related to the earlier study dealing with predictions of distributional changes for these species for the time slice of 2051-2080, developed using bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). Our results suggest that the observed changes in bird distributions are in the same direction as the BEM-based predictions, resulting in a decrease in species richness of mire and Arctic mountain heath species and an increase in marshland species. The patterns of changes in species richness between the two time slices are in general parallel in protected and unprotected areas. However, importantly, protected areas maintained a higher level of species richness than unprotected areas. This finding provides support for the significance and resilience provision of protected area networks in preserving species of conservation concern under climate change.

Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland.

Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony.

Impact of climate change and prey abundance on nesting success of a top predator, the goshawk.

Contemporary research has documented a large number of shifts in spring phenology and changes in distribution range although the average spring temperatures have increased by only 0.3-0.6 °C over the past 100 years. Generally, earlier breeding birds have larger clutch sizes, and the advancing spring could thus potentially increase breeding success. Shifts in spring phenology can, however, be crucial for bird reproduction, and mistiming the breeding event may even have negative consequences for population development. Our aim was to explore how weather and prey abundance relates to the breeding performance of a north European top predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Our nationwide dataset from Finland, spanning the period 1989-2004, shows that ambient weather has a greater impact on the timing and success of breeding than the density of grouse Tetraonidae, the main prey of goshawks. Higher early spring temperatures were associated with advancing hatching date of goshawks. Correspondingly, grouse density and temperature during laying and brooding were positively associated with brood size, while precipitation showed a negative connection. Applying our models to a future scenario of climate warming, combined with a 50 % reduction in grouse density, suggests that average breeding dates will advance only 2.5 days and average breeding success would remain the same. Notably, breeding success was not spatially equal throughout Finland, as northern and eastern populations suffered most from declining grouse densities. The observed pattern is thus the opposite to what is expected from a population situated at the northern edge of its distribution range, and thus may help to understand why populations may not increase at the northern edge of their thermal distribution due to climate change.

The breeding ranges of Central European and Arctic bird species move poleward.

BACKGROUND: Climatic warming predicts that species move their entire distribution poleward. Poleward movement of the 'cold' side of the distribution of species is empirically supported, but evidence of poleward movement at the 'warm' distributional side is relatively scarce. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: Finland has, as the first country in the world, completed three national atlas surveys of breeding birds, which we here use to calculate the sizes and weighted mean latitudes of the national range of 114 southern and 34 northern bird species during three periods (1974-1979; 1986-1989; 2006-2010), each denoting species presence in approximately 3 800 10 × 10 km2 squares. We find strong evidence that southern species (breeding predominantly in central Europe) showed a latitudinal shift of 1.1-1.3 km/year poleward during all three pairwise comparisons between these atlases (covering 11, 20.5 and 31.5 years respectively). We find evidence of a latitudinal shift of 0.7-0.8 km/year poleward of northern boreal and Arctic species, but this shift was not found in all study periods and may have been influenced by increased effort put into the more recent surveys. Species showed no significant correlation in changes in range size and weighted mean latitude between the first (11 year) and second (20.5 year) period covered by consecutive atlases, suggesting weak phylogenetic signal and little scope of species characteristics in explaining latitudinal avian range changes. CONCLUSIONS: Extinction-driven avian range changes (at the 'warm' side) of a species' distribution occur at approximately half the rate of colonisation-driven range changes (at the 'cold' side), and its quantification therefore requires long-term monitoring data, possibly explaining why evidence for such changes is currently rare. A clear latitudinal shift in an assemblage of species may still harbour considerable temporal inconsistency in latitudinal movement on the species level. Understanding this inconsistency is important for predictive modelling of species composition in a changing world.

Competitive exclusion within the predator community influences the distribution of a threatened prey species.

While much effort has been made to quantify how landscape composition influences the distribution of species, the possibility that geographical differences in species interactions might affect species distributions has received less attention. Investigating a predator-prey setting in a boreal forest ecosystem, we empirically show that large-scale differences in the predator community structure and small-scale competitive exclusion among predators affect the local distribution of a threatened forest specialist more than does landscape composition. Consequently, even though the landscape parameters affecting Siberian flying squirrel (Pteromys volans) distribution (prey) did not differ between nest sites of the predators Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) and Ural Owls (Strix uralensis), flying squirrels were heterospecifically attracted by goshawks in a region where both predator species were present. No such effect was found in another region where Ural Owls were absent. These results provide evidence that differences in species interactions over large spatial scales may be a major force influencing the distribution and abundance patterns of species. On the basis of these findings, we suspect that subtle species interactions might be a central reason why landscape models constructed to predict species distributions often fail when applied to wider geographical scales.

Climate change drives microevolution in a wild bird.

To ensure long-term persistence, organisms must adapt to climate change, but an evolutionary response to a quantified selection pressure driven by climate change has not been empirically demonstrated in a wild population. Here, we show that pheomelanin-based plumage colouration in tawny owls is a highly heritable trait, consistent with a simple Mendelian pattern of brown (dark) dominance over grey (pale). We show that strong viability selection against the brown morph occurs, but only under snow-rich winters. As winter conditions became milder in the last decades, selection against the brown morph diminished. Concurrent with this reduced selection, the frequency of brown morphs increased rapidly in our study population during the last 28 years and nationwide during the last 48 years. Hence, we show the first evidence that recent climate change alters natural selection in a wild population leading to a microevolutionary response, which demonstrates the ability of wild populations to evolve in response to climate change.

The impact of climate and cyclic food abundance on the timing of breeding and brood size in four boreal owl species.

The ongoing climate change has improved our understanding of how climate affects the reproduction of animals. However, the interaction between food availability and climate on breeding has rarely been examined. While it has been shown that breeding of boreal birds of prey is first and foremost determined by prey abundance, little information exists on how climatic conditions influence this relationship. We studied the joint effects of main prey abundance and ambient weather on timing of breeding and reproductive success of two smaller (pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum and Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus) and two larger (tawny owl Strix aluco and Ural owl Strix uralensis) avian predator species using long-term nation-wide datasets during 1973-2004. We found no temporal trend either in vole abundance or in hatching date and brood size of any studied owl species. In the larger species, increasing late winter or early spring temperature advanced breeding at least as much as did high autumn abundance of prey (voles). Furthermore, increasing snow depth delayed breeding of the largest species (Ural owl), presumably by reducing the availability of voles. Brood size was strongly determined by spring vole abundance in all four owl species. These results show that climate directly affects the breeding performance of vole-eating boreal avian predators much more than previously thought. According to earlier studies, small-sized species should advance their breeding more than larger species in response to increasing temperature. However, we found an opposite pattern, with larger species being more sensitive to temperature. We argue that this pattern is caused by a difference in the breeding tactics of larger mostly capital breeding and smaller mostly income breeding owl species.

Effects of experimental brood size manipulation and gender on carotenoid levels of Eurasian kestrels Falco tinnunculus.

BACKGROUND: Animals use carotenoid-pigments for coloration, as antioxidants and as enhancers of the immune system. Carotenoid-dependent colours can thus signal individual quality and carotenoids have also been suggested to mediate life-history trade-offs. METHODOLOGY: To examine trade-offs in carotenoid allocation between parents and the young, or between skin coloration and plasma of the parents at different levels of brood demand, we manipulated brood sizes of Eurasian kestrels (Falco tinnunculus). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Brood size manipulation had no overall effect on plasma carotenoid levels or skin hue of parents, but female parents had twice the plasma carotenoid levels of males. Males work physically harder than females and they might thus also use more carotenoids against oxidative stress than females. Alternatively, females could be gaining back the carotenoid stores they depleted during egg-laying by eating primarily carotenoid-rich food items during the early nestling stage. Fledglings in enlarged broods had higher plasma carotenoid concentrations than those in reduced broods. This difference was not explained by diet. In light of recent evidence from other species, we suggest it might instead be due to fledglings in enlarged broods having higher testosterone levels, which in turn increased plasma carotenoid levels. The partial cross-foster design of our experiment revealed evidence for origin effects (genetic or maternal) on carotenoid levels of fledglings, but no origin-environment interaction. SIGNIFICANCE: These results from wild birds differ from studies in captivity, and thus offer new insights into carotenoid physiology in relation to division of parental care and demands of the brood.

Birds of prey as limiting factors of gamebird populations in Europe: a review.

Whether predators can limit their prey has been a topic of scientific debate for decades. Traditionally it was believed that predators take only wounded, sick, old or otherwise low-quality individuals, and thus have little impact on prey populations. However, there is increasing evidence that, at least under certain circumstances, vertebrate predators may indeed limit prey numbers. This potential role of predators as limiting factors of prey populations has created conflicts between predators and human hunters, because the hunters may see predators as competitors for the same resources. A particularly acute conflict has emerged over the past few decades between gamebird hunters and birds of prey in Europe. As a part of a European-wide research project, we reviewed literature on the relationships between birds of prey and gamebirds. We start by analysing available data on the diets of 52 European raptor and owl species. There are some 32 species, mostly specialist predators feeding on small mammals, small passerine birds or insects, which never or very rarely include game animals (e.g. hares, rabbits, gamebirds) in their diet. A second group (20 species) consists of medium-sized and large raptors which prey on game, but for which the proportion in the diet varies temporally and spatially. Only three raptor species can have rather large proportions of gamebirds in their diet, and another seven species may utilise gamebirds locally to a great extent. We point out that the percentage of a given prey species in the diet of an avian predator does not necessarily reflect the impact of that predator on densities of prey populations. Next, we summarise available data on the numerical responses of avian predators to changing gamebird numbers. In half of these studies, no numerical response was found, while in the remainder a response was detected such that either raptor density or breeding success increased with density of gamebirds. Data on the functional responses of raptors were scarce. Most studies of the interaction between raptors and gamebird populations give some estimate of the predation rate (per cent of prey population taken by predator), but less often do they evaluate the subsequent reduction in the pre-harvest population or the potential limiting effect on breeding numbers. The few existing studies indicate that, under certain conditions, raptor predation may limit gamebird populations and reduce gamebird harvests. However, the number and extent of such studies are too modest to draw firm conclusions. Furthermore, their geographical bias to northern Europe, where predator-prey communities are typically simpler than in the south, precludes extrapolation to more diverse southern European ecosystems. There is an urgent need to develop further studies, particularly in southern Europe, to determine the functional and numerical responses of raptors to gamebird populations in species and environments other than those already evaluated in existing studies. Furthermore, additional field experiments are needed in which raptor and possibly also mammalian predator numbers are manipulated on a sufficiently large spatial and temporal scale. Other aspects that have been little studied are the role of predation by the non-breeding part of the raptor population, or floaters, on the breeding success and survival of gamebirds, as well as the effect of intra-guild predation. Finally there is a need for further research on practical methods to reduce raptor predation on gamebirds and thus reduce conflict between raptor conservation and gamebird management.

Hatching asynchrony and brood reduction in Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus: the role of temporal and spatial variation in food abundance.

Hatching asynchrony is the consequence of birds initiating incubation before clutch completion. It has been suggested that variation in hatching asynchrony in owls is extensive, and therefore they should be excellent objects to study the effects of spatio-temporal variation in food abundance on this phenomenon. We examined how abundance and predictability of food affected hatching asynchrony in Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus (Linnaeus), which mainly feeds on voles which fluctuate in 3- to 4-year cycles in northern Europe. Hatching span averaged 6-7 days (range 0-13 days) and increased with clutch size. Food supply did not directly influence levels of hatching asynchrony but it influenced indirectly via marked among-year changes in clutch size. During the decrease phase of the vole cycle the proportion of hatchlings producing fledglings decreased with asynchrony, suggesting that chick mortality was most common among asynchronous broods when food became scarce. This finding is consistent with Lack's brood reduction hypothesis, i.e. that if food becomes scarce during the nestling period the youngest nestlings would die first without endangering the survival of the whole brood.