Molecular characterization of emerging recombinant African swine fever virus of genotype I and II in Vietnam, 2023.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) recombinant strains pose new challenges for diagnosis and control. This study characterizes genotype I and II recombinant ASFV strains identified in northern Vietnam in 2023 through whole-genome sequencing and comparative genomic analysis. Seven ASFV-positive samples from six provinces were analyzed, with recombinant strains detected in Bac Giang, Phu Tho, and Vinh Phuc provinces. Isolates showed hemadsorption positivity despite having genotype I B646L, indicating their recombinant nature. Genome-wide analysis revealed 19 recombination breakpoints consistent with Chinese recombinant strains. Vietnamese isolates shared 99.86-99.98% nucleotide identity with Chinese recombinants, forming a distinct monophyletic group. Comparative analysis identified 50 SNPs and INDELs, with 39 variations found across Vietnamese strains, distinguishing them from Chinese isolates. Unique genetic markers in C962R, I329L, and MGF 505-11L genes distinguished Vietnamese recombinants from Chinese counterparts, while mutations in C122R and NP1450L differentiated all recombinants from parental genotypes. The central variable region (CVR) of the B602L gene showed diversity among Vietnamese isolates, while the I73R-I329L intergenic regions were recognized as in the IGR2 group. This study enhances understanding of recombinant ASFV evolution through homologous recombination and identifies new genetic markers for improved detection and characterization. The observed genetic diversity highlights challenges for existing diagnostic methods and vaccine development, emphasizing the need for continued surveillance and research into the functional implications of these genetic variations on ASFV pathogenicity and transmissibility.

Health outcomes 3 months and 6 months after molnupiravir treatment for COVID-19 for people at higher risk in the community (PANORAMIC): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: No randomised controlled trials have yet reported on the effectiveness of molnupiravir on longer term outcomes for COVID-19. The PANORAMIC trial found molnupiravir reduced time to recovery in acute COVID-19 over 28 days. We aimed to report the effect of molnupiravir treatment for COVID-19 on wellbeing, severe and persistent symptoms, new infections, health care and social service use, medication use, and time off work at 3 months and 6 months post-randomisation. METHODS: This study is a follow-up to the main analysis, which was based on the first 28 days of follow-up and has been previously reported. For this multicentre, primary care, open-label, multi-arm, prospective randomised controlled trial conducted in the UK, participants were eligible if aged at least 50 years, or at least 18 years with a comorbidity, and unwell 5 days or less with confirmed COVID-19 in the community. Participants were randomly assigned to the usual care group or molnupiravir group plus usual care (800 mg twice a day for 5 days), which was stratified by age (<50 years or ≥50 years) and vaccination status (at least one dose: yes or no). The primary outcome was hospitalisation or death (or both) at 28 days; all longer term outcomes were considered to be secondary outcomes and included self-reported ratings of wellness (on a scale of 0-10), experiencing any symptom (fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle ache, nausea and vomiting, diarrhoea, loss of smell or taste, headache, dizziness, abdominal pain, and generally feeling unwell) rated as severe (moderately bad or major problem) or persistent, any health and social care use, health-related quality of life (measured by the EQ-5D-5L), time off work or school, new infections, and hospitalisation. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 25 783 participants were randomly assigned to the molnupiravir plus usual care group (n=12 821) or usual care group (n=12 962). Long-term follow-up data were available for 23 008 (89·2%) of 25 784 participants with 11 778 (91·9%) of 12 821 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and 11 230 (86·6%) of 12 963 in the usual care group. 22 806 (99·1%) of 23 008 had at least one previous dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Any severe (3 months: adjusted risk difference -1·6% [-2·6% to -0·6%]; probability superiority [p(sup)]>0·99; number needed to treat [NNT] 62·5; 6 months: -1·9% [-2·9% to -0·9%]; p(sup)>0·99, NNT 52·6) or persistent symptoms (3 months: adjusted risk difference -2·1% [-2·9% to -1·5%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 47·6; 6 months: -2·5% [-3·3% to -1·6%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 40) were reduced in severity, and health-related quality of life (measured by the EQ-5D-5L) improved in the molnupiravir plus usual care group at 3 months and 6 months (3 months: adjusted mean difference 1·08 [0·65 to 1·53]; p(sup)>0·99; 6 months: 1·09 [0·63 to 1·55]; p(sup)>0·99). Ratings of wellness (3 months: adjusted mean difference 0·15 (0·11 to 0·19); p(sup)>0·99; 6 months: 0·12 (0·07 to 0·16); p(sup)>0·99), experiencing any more severe symptom (3 months; adjusted risk difference -1·6% [-2·6% to -0·6%]; p(sup)=0·99; 6 months: -1·9% [-2·9% to -0·9%]; p(sup)>0·99), and health-care use (3 months: adjusted risk difference -1·4% [-2·3% to -0·4%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 71·4; 6 months: -0·5% [-1·5% to 0·4%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 200) had high probabilities of superiority with molnupiravir treatment. There were significant differences in persistence of any symptom (910 [8·9%] of 10 190 vs 1027 [11%] of 9332, NNT 67) at 6 months, and reported time off work at 3 months (2017 [17·9%] of 11 274 vs 2385 [22·4%] of 10 628) and 6 months (460 [4·4%] of 10 562 vs 527 [5·4%] of 9846; NNT 100). There were no differences in hospitalisations at long-term follow-up. INTERPRETATION: In a vaccinated population, people treated with molnupiravir for acute COVID-19 felt better, experienced fewer and less severe COVID-19 associated symptoms, accessed health care less often, and took less time off work at 6 months. However, the absolute differences in this open-label design are small with high numbers needed to treat. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Learnings from the vaccines taskforce: an apotheosis in mission, purpose and handling risk.

The Vaccines Task Force was established by the UK government in March 2020, with the objective of securing early access to effective COVID-19 vaccines for the UK population and internationally. The VTF was successful in securing the earliest access to the Oxford/Astra Zeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines, allowing the UK to be the first country in the world to deploy an approved COVID-19 vaccine. The VTF also played a critical role in supporting efforts to distribute vaccines globally, as one of COVAX's earliest and largest donors. This article presents the perspectives of senior members of the VTF on the features of the task force model which enabled this success, and considers lessons for when and how a similar approach should be applied to other public health and public policy challenges. We seek to identify principles for mission led government, and implications for how the structure and apparatus of governance can be organised to support this, including the application of the Task Force model where appropriate.

Effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination in adults with common immune-mediated inflammatory diseases in the UK: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: People with immune-mediated inflammatory disease are at increased risk of pneumococcal pneumonia. The effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases has not been evaluated. We investigated the effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination in preventing morbidity and mortality associated with pneumonia in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. METHODS: In this matched case-control study, we used primary-care electronic health record data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold database in the UK, with linked hospitalisation and mortality data. Adults with incident common immune-mediated inflammatory diseases diagnosed between April 1, 1997, and Dec 31, 2019, were followed up from the first diagnosis date to the occurrence of an outcome or date of last follow-up. Cases (ie, those with an outcome of interest) were age-matched and sex-matched to up to ten contemporaneous controls by use of incidence density sampling. Outcomes were hospitalisation due to pneumonia, death due to pneumonia, or primary-care consultation for lower respiratory tract infection requiring antibiotics. We defined hospital admission for pneumonia using hospital discharge diagnoses, death due to pneumonia using death certification data, and lower respiratory tract infection as present when primary-care consultation and antibiotic prescription occurred on the same date. We used multivariable, unconditional, logistical regression and constructed three models to examine the association between pneumococcal vaccination as an exposure and each of the three outcomes. FINDINGS: The first nested case-control analysis included 12 360 patients (7326 [59·3%] women and 5034 [40·7%] men): 1884 (15·2%) who were hospitalised due to pneumonia and 10 476 (84·8%) who were not admitted to hospital due to pneumonia. The second analysis included 5321 patients (3112 [58·5%] women and 2209 [41·5%] men): 781 (14·7%) who died due to pneumonia and 4540 (85·3%) who were alive on the index date. The third analysis included 54 530 patients (33 605 [61·6%] women and 20 925 [38·4%] men): 10 549 (19·3%) with lower respiratory tract infection treated with antibiotics and 43 981 (80·7%) without infection. In the multivariable analysis, pneumococcal vaccination was negatively associated with hospitalisation due to pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio 0·70 [95% CI 0·60-0·81]), death due to pneumonia (0·60 [0·48-0·76]), and lower respiratory tract infection treated with antibiotics (0·76 [0·72-0·80]). INTERPRETATION: Pneumococcal vaccination is associated with protection against hospitalisation and death due to pneumonia in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, without apparent residual confounding. However, residual unmeasured confounding cannot be fully excluded in observational research, which includes nested case-control studies. These findings should also be corroborated with data from other countries, given that this study used UK-based data. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Uptake, safety and effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine in inflammatory bowel disease: a UK-wide study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate (1) the UK-wide inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) uptake in adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), (2) the association between vaccination against influenza and IBD flare and (3) the effectiveness of IIV in preventing morbidity and mortality. DESIGN: Data for adults with IBD diagnosed before the 1 September 2018 were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold. We calculated the proportion of people vaccinated against seasonal influenza in the 2018-2019 influenza cycle. To investigate vaccine effectiveness, we calculated the propensity score (PS) for vaccination and conducted Cox proportional hazard regression with inverse-probability treatment weighting on PS. We employed self-controlled case series analysis to investigate the association between vaccination and IBD flare. RESULTS: Data for 13 631 people with IBD (50.4% male, mean age 52.9 years) were included. Fifty percent were vaccinated during the influenza cycle, while 32.1% were vaccinated on time, that is, before the seasonal influenza virus circulated in the community. IIV was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (aHR (95% CI): 0.73 (0.55,0.97) but not hospitalisation for pneumonia (aHR (95% CI) 0.52 (0.20-1.37), including in the influenza active period (aHR (95% CI) 0.48 (0.18-1.27)). Administration of the IIV was not associated with IBD flare. CONCLUSION: The uptake of influenza vaccine was low in people with IBD, and the majority were not vaccinated before influenza virus circulated in the community. Vaccination with the IIV was not associated with IBD flare. These findings add to the evidence to promote vaccination against influenza in people with IBD.

Characterization of an African Swine Fever Virus Field Isolate from Vietnam with Deletions in the Left Variable Multigene Family Region.

In this paper, we report the characterization of a genetically modified live-attenuated African swine fever virus (ASFV) field strain isolated from Vietnam. The isolate, ASFV-GUS-Vietnam, belongs to p72 genotype II, has six multi-gene family (MGF) genes deleted, and an Escherichia coli GusA gene (GUS) inserted. When six 6-8-week-old pigs were inoculated with ASFV-GUS-Vietnam oro-nasally (2 × 105 TCID50/pig), they developed viremia, mild fever, lethargy, and inappetence, and shed the virus in their oral and nasal secretions and feces. One of the pigs developed severe clinical signs and was euthanized 12 days post-infection, while the remaining five pigs recovered. When ASFV-GUS-Vietnam was inoculated intramuscularly (2 × 103 TCID50/pig) into four 6-8 weeks old pigs, they also developed viremia, mild fever, lethargy, inappetence, and shed the virus in their oral and nasal secretions and feces. Two contact pigs housed together with the four intramuscularly inoculated pigs, started to develop fever, viremia, loss of appetite, and lethargy 12 days post-contact, confirming horizontal transmission of ASFV-GUS-Vietnam. One of the contact pigs died of ASF on day 23 post-contact, while the other one recovered. The pigs that survived the exposure to ASFV-GUS-Vietnam via the mucosal or parenteral route were fully protected against the highly virulent ASFV Georgia 2007/1 challenge. This study showed that ASFV-GUS-Vietnam field isolate is able to induce complete protection in the majority of the pigs against highly virulent homologous ASFV challenge, but has the potential for horizontal transmission, and can be fatal in some animals. This study highlights the need for proper monitoring and surveillance when ASFV live-attenuated virus-based vaccines are used in the field for ASF control in endemic countries.

Detection of Recombinant African Swine Fever Virus Strains of p72 Genotypes I and II in Domestic Pigs, Vietnam, 2023.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) genotype II is endemic to Vietnam. We detected recombinant ASFV genotypes I and II (rASFV I/II) strains in domestic pigs from 6 northern provinces in Vietnam. The introduction of rASFV I/II strains could complicate ongoing ASFV control measures in the region.

Uptake and safety of pneumococcal vaccination in adults with immune mediated inflammatory diseases: a UK wide observational study.

OBJECTIVE: The uptake and safety of pneumococcal vaccination in people with immune mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) is poorly understood. We investigated the UK wide pneumococcal vaccine uptake in adults with IMIDs and explored the association between vaccination and IMID flare. METHODS: Adults with IMIDs diagnosed on or before 01/09/2018, prescribed steroid-sparing drugs within the last 12 months and contributing data to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold were included. Vaccine uptake was assessed using a cross-sectional study design. Self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis investigated the association between pneumococcal vaccination and IMID flare. The SCCS observation period was up-to six-month before and after pneumococcal vaccination. This was partitioned into a 14-day pre-vaccination induction, 90-days post-vaccination exposed, and the remaining unexposed periods. RESULTS: We included 32 277 patients, 14 151 with RA, 13 631 with IBD, 3,804 with axial spondyloarthritis and 691 with SLE. Overall, 57% were vaccinated against pneumococcus. Vaccine uptake was lower in those younger than 45 years (32%), with IBD (42%), and without additional indication(s) for vaccination (46%). In the vaccine-safety study, data for 1,067, 935, and 451vaccinated patients with primary-care consultations for joint pain, AIRD flare and IBD flare respectively were included. Vaccination against pneumococcal pneumonia was not associated with primary-care consultations for joint pain, AIRD flare and IBD flare in the exposed period with incidence rate ratios (95% Confidence Interval) 0.95 (0.83-1.09), 1.05 (0.92-1.19), and 0.83 (0.65-1.06) respectively. CONCLUSION: Uptake of pneumococcal vaccination in UK patients with IMIDs was suboptimal. Vaccination against pneumococcal disease was not associated with IMID flare.

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients.

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.

Cost-utility analysis of molnupiravir for high-risk, community-based adults with COVID-19: an economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral for early treatment of SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated populations. AIM: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir relative to usual care alone among mainly vaccinated community-based people at higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 over 6 months. DESIGN AND SETTING: An economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial in the UK. METHOD: A cost-utility analysis that adopted a UK NHS and personal social services perspective and a 6-month time horizon was performed using PANORAMIC trial data. Cost-effectiveness was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses assessed the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity. Threshold analysis explored the price for molnupiravir consistent with likely reimbursement. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, molnupiravir had higher mean costs of £449 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 445 to 453) and higher mean QALYs of 0.0055 (95% CI = 0.0044 to 0.0067) than usual care (mean incremental cost per QALY of £81 190). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses showed similar results, except for those aged ≥75 years, with a 55% probability of being cost-effective at a £30 000 per QALY threshold. Molnupiravir would have to be priced around £147 per course to be cost-effective at a £15 000 per QALY threshold. CONCLUSION: At the current cost of £513 per course, molnupiravir is unlikely to be cost-effective relative to usual care over a 6-month time horizon among mainly vaccinated patients with COVID-19 at increased risk of adverse outcomes, except those aged ≥75 years.

Effect of a 2-week interruption in methotrexate treatment on COVID-19 vaccine response in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (VROOM study): a randomised, open label, superiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Methotrexate is the first-line treatment for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and reduces vaccine-induced immunity. We evaluated if a 2-week interruption of methotrexate treatment immediately after COVID-19 booster vaccination improved antibody response against the S1 receptor binding domain (S1-RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and live SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation compared with uninterrupted treatment in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. METHOD: We did a multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, randomised, superiority trial in secondary-care rheumatology and dermatology clinics in 26 hospitals in the UK. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases taking methotrexate (≤25 mg per week) for at least 3 months, who had received two primary vaccine doses from the UK COVID-19 vaccination programme were eligible. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) using a centralised validated computer program, to temporarily suspend methotrexate treatment for 2 weeks immediately after COVID-19 booster vaccination or continue treatment as usual. The primary outcome was S1-RBD antibody titres 4 weeks after COVID-19 booster vaccination and was assessed masked to group assignment. All randomly assigned patients were included in primary and safety analyses. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN11442263; following a pre-planned interim analysis, recruitment was stopped early. FINDING: Between Sept 30, 2021, and March 7, 2022, we screened 685 individuals, of whom 383 were randomly assigned: to either suspend methotrexate (n=191; mean age 58·8 years [SD 12·5], 118 [62%] women and 73 [38%] men) or to continue methotrexate (n=192; mean age 59·3 years [11·9], 117 [61%] women and 75 [39%] men). At 4 weeks, the geometric mean S1-RBD antibody titre was 25 413 U/mL (95% CI 22 227-29 056) in the suspend methotrexate group and 12 326 U/mL (10 538-14 418) in the continue methotrexate group with a geometric mean ratio (GMR) of 2·08 (95% CI 1·59-2·70; p<0·0001). No intervention-related serious adverse events occurred. INTERPRETATION: 2-week interruption of methotrexate treatment in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases enhanced antibody responses after COVID-19 booster vaccination that were sustained at 12 weeks and 26 weeks. There was a temporary increase in inflammatory disease flares, mostly self-managed. The choice to suspend methotrexate should be individualised based on disease status and vulnerability to severe outcomes from COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Optimizing mood prior to influenza vaccination in older adults: A three-arm randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: This trial explored the psychological and immunological effects of two brief interventions, targeting improving positive mood, administered to older adults immediately prior to influenza vaccination. The primary aim was to examine whether the interventions resulted in greater positive mood compared to usual care, and if so, which was superior. Secondary outcomes included antibody responses to vaccination and feasibility of collecting clinical outcome data (e.g., respiratory infections). METHOD: Six hundred and fifty-four older adults (65-85 years) participated in a three-arm, parallel, randomized controlled trial between September 2019 and May 2020. Immediately prior to receiving an adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (Fluad, Seqirus UK Ltd), participants viewed one of two brief (15-min) video-based positive mood interventions (one fixed content, one allowing participant choice) or received usual care. State affect was measured immediately prior to, and following, intervention exposure or usual care. Antibody responses were measured prevaccination and 4 weeks postvaccination. Clinical outcomes were extracted from primary care records for 6 months following vaccination. RESULTS: Both interventions were equally effective at improving mood prior to vaccination compared to usual care. Antibody responses were highly robust with postvaccination seroprotection rates of > 88% observed for all vaccine strains. Antibody responses did not significantly differ between groups. Clinical outcome data were feasible to collect. CONCLUSIONS: Brief psychological interventions can improve mood prior to vaccination. However, altering antibody responses to highly immunogenic adjuvanted vaccines may require more targeted or prolonged interventions. The provision of choice did not notably enhance the interventions impact on mood or antibody outcomes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Tungsten-based nanocatalysts with different structures for visible light responsive photocatalytic degradation of bisphenol A.

Environmental pollution, such as water contamination, is a critical issue that must be absolutely addressed. Here, three different morphologies of tungsten-based photocatalysts (WO3 nanorods, WO3/WS2 nanobricks, WO3/WS2 nanorods) are made using a simple hydrothermal method by changing the solvents (H2O, DMF, aqueous HCl solution). The as-prepared nanocatalysts have excellent thermal stability, large porosity, and high hydrophilicity. The results show all materials have good photocatalytic activity in aqueous media, with WO3/WS2 nanorods (NRs) having the best activity in the photodegradation of bisphenol A (BPA) under visible-light irradiation. This may originate from increased migration of charge carriers and effective prevention of electron‒hole recombination in WO3/WS2 NRs, whereby this photocatalyst is able to generate more reactive •OH and •O2- species, leading to greater photocatalytic activity. About 99.6% of BPA is photodegraded within 60 min when using 1.5 g/L WO3/WS2 NRs and 5.0 mg/L BPA at pH 7.0. Additionally, the optimal conditions (pH, catalyst dosage, initial BPA concentration) for WO3/WS2 NRs are also elaborately investigated. These rod-like heterostructures are expressed as potential catalysts with excellent photostability, efficient reusability, and highly active effectivity in different types of water. In particular, the removal efficiency of BPA by WO3/WS2 NRs reduces by only 1.5% after five recycling runs and even reaches 89.1% in contaminated lake water. This study provides promising insights for the nearly complete removal of BPA from wastewater or different water resources, which is advantageous to various applications in environmental remediation.

Real world evidence for public health decision-making on vaccination policies: perspectives from an expert roundtable.

INTRODUCTION: Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality, but influenza vaccine uptake remains below most countries' targets. Vaccine policy recommendations vary, as do procedures for reviewing and appraising the evidence. AREAS COVERED: During a series of roundtable discussions, we reviewed procedures and methodologies used by health ministries in four European countries to inform vaccine recommendations. We review the type of evidence currently recommended by each health ministry and the range of approaches toward considering randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and real-world evidence (RWE) studies when setting influenza vaccine recommendations. EXPERT OPINION: Influenza vaccine recommendations should be based on data from both RCTs and RWE studies of efficacy, effectiveness, and safety. Such data should be considered alongside health-economic, cost-effectiveness, and budgetary factors. Although RCT data are more robust and less prone to bias, well-designed RWE studies permit timely evaluation of vaccine benefits, effectiveness comparisons over multiple seasons in large populations, and detection of rare adverse events, under real-world conditions. Given the variability of vaccine effectiveness due to influenza virus mutations and increasing diversification of influenza vaccines, we argue that consideration of both RWE and RCT evidence is the best approach to more nuanced and timely updates of influenza vaccine recommendations.

Evaluation of pragmatic oxygenation measurement as a proxy for Covid-19 severity.

Choosing optimal outcome measures maximizes statistical power, accelerates discovery and improves reliability in early-phase trials. We devised and evaluated a modification to a pragmatic measure of oxygenation function, the [Formula: see text] ratio. Because of the ceiling effect in oxyhaemoglobin saturation, [Formula: see text] ratio ceases to reflect pulmonary oxygenation function at high [Formula: see text] values. We found that the correlation of [Formula: see text] with the reference standard ([Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] ratio) improves substantially when excluding [Formula: see text] and refer to this measure as [Formula: see text]. Using observational data from 39,765 hospitalised COVID-19 patients, we demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is predictive of mortality, and compare the sample sizes required for trials using four different outcome measures. We show that a significant difference in outcome could be detected with the smallest sample size using [Formula: see text]. We demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is an effective intermediate outcome measure in COVID-19. It is a non-invasive measurement, representative of disease severity and provides greater statistical power.

Prevalence of arterial hypertension in Vietnamese seafarers aboard merchant vessels: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally. It is a major risk factor for major cardiovascular events such as stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, kidney failure, and blindness. The aim of this research is to assess the prevalence and some factors related to arterial hypertension on Vietnamese seafarers aboard merchant vessels. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Seven hundred eight Vietnamese seafarers working aboard merchant ships were examined at the Institute of Marine Medicine before going to sea during the period from January 2022 to December 2022. It was a cross-sectional descriptive epidemiological study. The following parameters were measured: blood pressure, height, weight, waist circumference, buttock circumference to assess the prevalence of hypertension, overweight, and obesity. Seafarers we directly interviewed about workplace on ships and physical exercise, smoking tobacco, alcohol abuse, and anxiety symptoms to identify several factors associated with hypertension. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension in seafarers was 32.9%, prehypertension 26.4%, overweight 32.4%, obesity 13.3%, abdominal obesity 47.7%. Factors related to hypertension of seafarers included: job duration at sea > 10 years, odds ratio (OR) = 8.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.34-17.27); non-officers, OR = 2.11 (95% CI 1.45-2.82); engine room crew, OR = 2.11 (95% CI 1.45-3.58); obesity, OR = 3.34 (95% CI 2.15-5.63); abdominal obesity, OR = 9.12 (95% CI 4.23-18.45); current smoking, OR = 1.32 (95% CI 1.02-1.99); irregular exercise, OR =1.43 (95% CI 1.03-2.18); anxiety symptoms, OR = 1.56 (95% CI 1.08-2.27). CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension is a health problem for Vietnamese seafarers. To minimise hypertension, seafarers need to adjust their lifestyle, increase regular exercise and improve psychological issues on board.

The Ratio of Contrast Volume/Glomerular Filtration Rate and Urine NGAL Predicts the Progression of Acute Kidney Injury to Chronic Kidney Disease in Patients After Planned Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Objective: To evaluate the value of contrast volume/glomerular filtration ratio (Vc/eGFR ratio) and urine Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (uNGAL) in predicting the progression contract associated-acute kidney injury (CA-AKI) to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in planned percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients. Patients and Methods: We examined 387 adult patients who had undergone planned percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We determined acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) using the criteria set by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO). We calculated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the CKD-EPI formula based on serum creatinine levels. To determine the Vc/eGFR ratio, we considered the contrast medium volume and eGFR for each patient. Additionally, we measured urine NGAL levels using the ELISA method. Results: The percentage of CA-AKI patients who developed CKD after planned PCI was 36.36%. Within the CA-AKI to CKD group, the Vc/eGFR ratio was 2.82, and uNGAL levels were significantly higher at 72.74 ng/mL compared to 1.93 ng/mL for Vc/eGFR ratio and 46.57 ng/mL for uNGAL in the recovery CA-AKI group. This difference was statistically significant (p<0.001). Diabetic mellitus, urine NGAL concentration, and Vc/eGFR ratio were found to be independent factors in the progression of CA-AKI to CKD. The Vc/eGFR ratio and uNGAL showed predictive capabilities for progressing CA-AKI to CKD with an AUC of 0.884 and 0.878, respectively. The sensitivity was 81.3% for both, while the specificity was 89.3% for Vc/eGFR ratio and 85.7% for uNGAL. Conclusion: The Vc/eGFR ratio and uNGAL were good predictors for CA-AKI to CKD in planned PCI patients.

Platform adaptive trial of novel antivirals for early treatment of COVID-19 In the community (PANORAMIC): protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial of community novel antiviral treatment of COVID-19 in people at increased risk of more severe disease.

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need to determine the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PANORAMIC is a UK-wide, open-label, prospective, adaptive, multiarm platform, randomised clinical trial that evaluates antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new antiviral treatments as they become available, and the introduction and cessation of existing interventions via interim analyses. The first two interventions to be evaluated are molnupiravir (Lagevrio) and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: community-dwelling within 5 days of onset of symptomatic COVID-19 (confirmed by PCR or lateral flow test), and either (1) aged 50 years and over, or (2) aged 18-49 years with qualifying comorbidities. Registration occurs via the trial website and by telephone. Recruitment occurs remotely through the central trial team, or in person through clinical sites. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a trial drug plus usual care. Outcomes are collected via a participant-completed daily electronic symptom diary for 28 days post randomisation. Participants and/or their Trial Partner are contacted by the research team after days 7, 14 and 28 if the diary is not completed, or if the participant is unable to access the diary. The primary efficacy endpoint is all-cause, non-elective hospitalisation and/or death within 28 days of randomisation. Multiple prespecified interim analyses allow interventions to be stopped for futility or superiority based on prespecified decision criteria. A prospective economic evaluation is embedded within the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval granted by South Central-Berkshire REC number: 21/SC/0393; IRAS project ID: 1004274. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN30448031; EudraCT number: 2021-005748-31.

Risk prediction of covid-19 related death or hospital admission in adults testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection during the omicron wave in England (QCOVID4): cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate risk prediction algorithms (QCOVID4) to estimate the risk of covid-19 related death and hospital admission in people with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result during the period when the omicron variant of the virus was predominant in England, and to evaluate performance compared with a high risk cohort from NHS Digital. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: QResearch database linked to English national data on covid-19 vaccinations, SARS-CoV-2 test results, hospital admissions, and cancer and mortality data, 11 December 2021 to 31 March 2022, with follow-up to 30 June 2022. PARTICIPANTS: 1.3 million adults in the derivation cohort and 0.15 million adults in the validation cohort, aged 18-100 years, with a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 infection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was covid-19 related death and secondary outcome was hospital admission for covid-19. Risk equations with predictor variables were derived from models fitted in the derivation cohort. Performance was evaluated in a separate validation cohort. RESULTS: Of 1 297 922 people with a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the derivation cohort, 18 756 (1.5%) had a covid-19 related hospital admission and 3878 (0.3%) had a covid-19 related death during follow-up. The final QCOVID4 models included age, deprivation score and a range of health and sociodemographic factors, number of covid-19 vaccinations, and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. The risk of death related to covid-19 was lower among those who had received a covid-19 vaccine, with evidence of a dose-response relation (42% risk reduction associated with one vaccine dose and 92% reduction with four or more doses in men). Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a reduction in the risk of covid-19 related death (49% reduction in men). The QCOVID4 algorithm for covid-19 explained 76.0% (95% confidence interval 73.9% to 78.2%) of the variation in time to covid-19 related death in men with a D statistic of 3.65 (3.43 to 3.86) and Harrell's C statistic of 0.970 (0.962 to 0.979). Results were similar for women. QCOVID4 was well calibrated. QCOVID4 was substantially more efficient than the NHS Digital algorithm for correctly identifying patients at high risk of covid-19 related death. Of the 461 covid-19 related deaths in the validation cohort, 333 (72.2%) were in the QCOVID4 high risk group and 95 (20.6%) in the NHS Digital high risk group. CONCLUSION: The QCOVID4 risk algorithm, modelled from data during the period when the omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was predominant in England, now includes vaccination dose and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and predicted covid-19 related death among people with a positive test result. QCOVID4 more accurately identified individuals at the highest levels of absolute risk for targeted interventions than the approach adopted by NHS Digital. QCOVID4 performed well and could be used for targeting treatments for covid-19 disease.

Reactogenicity, immunogenicity and breakthrough infections following heterologous or fractional second dose COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents (Com-COV3): A randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: This was the first study to investigate the reactogenicity and immunogenicity of heterologous or fractional second dose COVID-19 vaccine regimens in adolescents. METHODS: A phase II, single-blind, multi-centre, randomised-controlled trial recruited across seven UK sites from September to November 2021, with follow-up visits to August 2022. Healthy 12-to-16 years olds were randomised (1:1:1) to either 30 µg BNT162b2 (BNT-30), 10 µg BNT162b2 (BNT-10), or NVX-CoV2373 (NVX), 8 weeks after a first 30 µg dose of BNT162b2. The primary outcome was solicited systemic reactions in the week following vaccination. Secondary outcomes included immunogenicity and safety. 'Breakthrough infection' analyses were exploratory. FINDINGS: 148 participants were recruited (median age 14 years old, 62% female, 26% anti-nucleocapsid IgG seropositive pre-second dose); 132 participants received a second dose. Reactions were mostly mild-to-moderate, with lower rates in BNT-10 recipients. No vaccine-related serious adverse events occurred. Compared to BNT-30, at 28 days post-second dose anti-spike antibody responses were similar for NVX (adjusted geometric mean ratio [aGMR]) 1.09 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.84, 1.42] and lower for BNT-10 (aGMR 0.78 [95% CI: 0.61, 0.99]). For Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, the neutralising antibody titres for BNT-30 at day 28 were similar for BNT-10 (aGMR 1.0 [95% CI: 0.65, 1.54] and 1.02 [95% CI: 0.71, 1.48], respectively), but higher for NVX (aGMR 1.7 [95% CI: 1.07, 2.69] and 1.43 [95% CI: 0.96, 2.12], respectively). Compared to BNT-30, cellular immune responses were greatest for NVX (aGMR 1.73 [95% CI: 0.94, 3.18]), and lowest for BNT-10 (aGMR 0.65 [95% CI: 0.37, 1.15]) at 14 days post-second dose. Cellular responses were similar across the study arms by day 236 post-second dose. Amongst SARS-CoV-2 infection naïve participants, NVX participants had an 89% reduction in risk of self-reported 'breakthrough infection' compared to BNT-30 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.11 [95% CI: 0.01, 0.86]) up until day 132 after second dose. BNT-10 recipients were more likely to have a 'breakthrough infection' compared to BNT-30 (aHR 2.14 [95% CI: 1.02, 4.51]) up to day 132 and day 236 post-second dose. Antibody responses at 132 and 236 days after second dose were similar for all vaccine schedules. INTERPRETATION: Heterologous and fractional dose COVID-19 vaccine schedules in adolescents are safe, well-tolerated and immunogenic. The enhanced performance of the heterologous schedule using NVX-CoV2373 against the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant suggests this mRNA prime and protein-subunit boost schedule may provide a greater breadth of protection than the licensed homologous schedule. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and Vaccine Task Force. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry: 12348322.